BillsFan4

Noacls was not totally wrong if I am looking at everything correctly. I believe you are thinking of Dareus’ 2017 cap number when you mention the $5.7M. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/jacksonville-jaguars/marcell-dareus-7718/ Dareus had a $10.1M cap hit in Jacksonville in 2018 and has a $10.585M cap hit for 2019 (if the Jags keep him. $0 if cut, as you mentioned), a $14.6M 2020 cap hit and a $14.65M 20201 cap hit. And remember, that cap hit would have been higher (for 2018, 2019 and 2020) if he had remained with Buffalo. His cap hits in buffalo would have been: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-analysis-all-22/2015/9/12/9310199/marcell-dareus-contract-details-buffalo-bills-full-breakdown 2017 - $16.4M 2018 - $16.58M 2019 - $17.9M 2020 - $16M 2021 - $14.65M The Bills did not save much in 2017 and 2018 salary cap space (about $5M in 2017 and $2M in 2018 cap space) but they saved a lot of money owed from 2019-2021. Here is a breakdown of what the Bills saved by trading Dareus: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/10/27/16562802/buffalo-bills-salary-cap-ramifications-for-trading-marcell-dareus-to-jacksonville-jaguars All told, the Bills spent about $47 million on Dareus and saved a little more than that (on what was still due) by trading him. Which is about equal to Star’s contract if he’s here for the entire 5 years (5 years/$51 million). But Star will have on average a $4M to $6M cheaper salary cap hit the whole time. for comparison, Star’s cap hits: 2018- $6.7M 2019- $11.5M 2020- $10.1M 2021- $10.85M 2022- $10.85M Dareus did have a $13M dead cap hit for 2018, if you wanted to include that. So 2018 is really the only year where you could say star cost us more ($6.7M + $13M dead cap vs. $16.58M if Dareus were on the Bills roster).

He’s doing some “10 questions” thing on twitter right now -

I’m sure that hiring Lou and Trotz played a big part in the Islanders turn around. They are both very well respected long time NHL veterans with tons of credibility (Lou is a hall of fame GM and Trotz just won the Cup) and got complete buy in from every player. But you are not comparing apples and apples IMO. The isles had a down season last year but they just made the playoffs in back to back years a couple seasons ago (2014/15 and 2015/16) and even though they missed in 2016/17 they still had a damn good record (41-29-12 with 94 points, which usually is god enough for the playoffs in many years). They also have more veteran players as well as actual NHL depth on their team. In that same timespan, buffalo had 2 last place finishes, a 5th last finish and an 8th last finish. The NYI aren’t trying to climb out of the same hole Buffalo is. I dont know if some fans fully realize how significant of a tear down/rebuild buffalo did. There aren’t many teams (at least in more recent NHL history) that have torn down a team as quickly as the Sabres did or gutted it as completely. I mean, our talent level was actually less than some expansion teams (there were nights many AHL teams could have kicked the Sabres asses)... Those tank teams set NHL records for how awful their play was.

Also, Georgiev is in net for the NYR, not Lundqvist (thankfully)

I feel like this new regime has done a pretty good job finding talented scouting and personnel execs. We’ve already lost a couple to promotions. Also, on a similar subject, all of the people the Bills interviewed for the GM job (before hiring Beane) are now GMs: Gaine, Gutekunst, Veach, Beane (obviously...lol). If McDermott put that list together, he did a good job identifying future GMs in waiting.

Sounds like there will be no trading Skinner, which is perfectly fine by me. It would be such a crushing blow to the team to trade him, anyway. Just listen to the interview quotes Eichel and others gave about Skinner today... I like our chances of signing him. He’s fit in so perfectly and by all accounts loves it here. Plus we are the only team that can offer 8 years and a spot playing as close to home as he’s going to get (no way Toronto can fit him in). I think the contract gets done as long as Buffalo makes a fair, competitive offer. Botts knows he can’t lose Skinner, and I don’t think Skinner is going to hold buffalo hostage for every penny he can get. Maybe I’m wrong but he doesn’t seem that type. He seems like a team guy to me. He’s constantly crediting his success to Eichel and his teammates. That doesn’t mean he will take a discount. But I don’t think he’s going to be unreasonable, either.

I like this signing a lot after seeing the contract numbers. If he works out, he could be a cheap starter for the next 3 years. If not, there is really nothing lost. Very little dead cap hit. I don’t see the downside here... all in all a pretty good signing, especially for mid February.

Yeah, Paradis or Mitch Morse. Ryan Kalil would be ok too (and Beane is obviously familiar with him). And I want Daryl Williams at T (another carolina guy Beane is familiar with) But I don’t really have my hopes up. Im not sure how many real big names buffalo will go after, and even if they do buffalo isn’t exactly a free agent destination (yet...?). Im hoping this new, state of the art $18M training facility will help their recruiting. It’s supposed to be one of the top 3 in the NFL when finished. That’s pretty damn cool for a small market team.

I think the Bills have a pretty strong culture in place, but here is my question - Do the Bills have anyone in their locker room that could keep AB in check (if need be)? Outside of Shady, the Bills don’t really have any proven, big time star players at the moment (though we obviously hope to have some in the making...). Is there anyone that AB would respect enough to listen to? Could anyone put him in his place if necessary? Is he the type that views himself as a big time star and therefore above the other, less talented players? I have no idea. If Beane and McDermott think the locker room is equipped to handle a “risky” player, then I will trust their judgement. That is one area they’ve earned my trust, for the most part.

I would be surprised if the Jets aren’t one of the bidders for Paradis. Whether he picks NY or not, I do not know. But I fully expect them to make an offer (and probably a pretty big one). Same with Antonio Brown. I think the Jets will be one of the teams that try to trade for him. At least that’s my guess. I just get the impression that Maccagnan kind of likes to big game hunt.

I don’t think the Long signing precludes them from going after Paradis. Long plays guard and center (and IMO is probably better as a guard). They could easily slide him over to G. For all we know, that’s what they signed him to play... (and/or to compete with Bodine in case they strike out on a clear C upgrade). Plus, Groy, Mills and Miller are all free agents. The Bills still need to sign at least a couple starting linemen.

I hope the Bills at least try to bring him in for a visit. There’s no guarantee he will be interested, but I feel like you have to at least kick tires on him. He could be a big help to Allen identifying coverages and setting protections. I think Allen needs that. You could see how it helped Allen when Bodine took over for Groy. Bodine was better at identifying coverages than Groy, and as Patriot Killa said, Paradis is one of the better C’s in the NFL in that regard.

I know the NFL is very much a “what have you done for me lately” league, and the fans are similar. But I don’t think it’s unfair to look at Long’s entire body of work, vs only looking at a single season of a 5 year career. The Jets were a mess last year and Long was hurt for most of the year. The NY Jets had a head coach that half the team looked like they quit on, a new OC (who didn’t end up doing all that well) and had Rick Dennison as their run game coordinator. They fully implemented his run scheme. How many Bills linemen did well running Dennison’s zone blocking run scheme? (and that was when we had Wood, Incognito and Glenn (when he wasn’t injured)). Notmto mention they had a rookie QB who wasn’t always very decisive with his throws. Rookies tend to hold the ball longer a small put more pressure on their o line. I have no idea if Long will work out, but it’s not like he’s been garbage his entire career. He was actually a pretty solid G/C before his 1 year in NY. There’s a reason he got that big free agent contract from NY... So I’m hopeful that he will look more like he did in Washington than NY. Only time will tell. Im anxious to see the guaranteed money because that will be more telling as to how they view him. But even with decent guarantees, his cap hit still falls in the range of a low end start or high end backup. It doesn’t preclude the Bills from signing a better/higher paid guaranteed starter. Long’s contract doesn’t guarantee him a starting role. Plus, The Bills still have boatloads of cap space (still top 3 I believe) and many holes to fill on the o line. Long can play guard and center, which is another bonus (and played better at guard for NY last year, after he came back from the injury). He’s immediately the best guard on the Bills IMO. For a Bills team with huge needs on the o line, I don’t see this signing as a bad thing. I cant think of many better lineman that were available to sign right now.

Not the first team that came to mind when I thought about trade destinations for Flacco. Wonder what happens with Keenum? Does he have any trade value, or will he just be cut?

Great team win by buffalo tonight. I thought they all did a good job simplifying their games and eliminating some of the plays that often lead to those big mistakes. Fhere were some some nervous moments in the 3rd, but overall it was a pretty strong game by Buffalo. Ullmark was fantastic. Buffalo jit’s canf catch a break right now... Carolina is up 3-1 with 5 minutes left in the 3rd. They were down 1-0 almost the entire game, too. Damn it.

To some of your points K9: - I think it makes it somewhat relevant to the discussion to look at Sobotka’s NHL career and usage by other coaches to see if there’s a big difference in the way he’s used now. Sobotka is being relied upon in a similar, but lesser, defensive role as he has his entire career, and in fact was relied on more heavily just last year (and every other year he was a Blue) on a St. Louis team much deeper than this current Sabres team. - I wasn’t just talking about his ice time earlier in his career. In fact, his first few years in Boston he saw a similar amount of ice time to what he’s seeing this year (10-12 mins). His ice time skyrocketed when he was moved to St. Louis in year 4, and that continued up until last season. He actually saw the most ice time of his career last year (average of 17 mins. a night). - my point on yost’s list being populated by better players receiving much more ice time was that Buffalo doesn’t have that 4th, 5th and even 6th best player to give more ice time to like other teams do. After their top 3 forwards, Buffalo has a cluster of about 6 players that get pretty similar ice time. It doesn’t seem fair to compare true 2nd line players on other teams to Sobotka, whomis not getting the same ice time a 2nd line player gets. Other teams have more clearly defined 2nd lines that get a lot more ice time. Buffalo doesn’t even really have a 2nd line. Their 2nd and 3rd lines are pretty much interchangeable. I personally think it would would be a more fair comparison to look at players who recieve the same amount of ice time Sobotka does, as opposed to the 4th most used forward. In general though, I guess the way I look at it is, who else do they really have to rely on in that role? Who else would you put in that heavy defensive role? Larsson already shares the role with Sobotka, and has similar ice time (he plays about 15 seconds less per game iirc). Who else is there? Girgensons maybe? I don’t think Asplund (down in Rochester) is ready to fill that role yet. Not sure about Malone either. And I don’t know that i’d want to see him force someone like ERod or Smith into a heavy defensive role. I’d rather see them allowed to focus more on developing their offensive game and let them try to provide some secondary scoring. The guy that played that role last year was traded, and now it’s replacement by committee. Just to be clear, I’m not saying I fully agree with Sobotka’s usage. I Totally agree with you about Sobotka in 3v3 and agree on some of thr other things you said, too. And generally, I will be glad once there is no need to play him at all.... lol

I was saying out off all skaters (including defenseman) he’s 13th. I’m not saying I think Sobotka is good or that I dismiss his bad underlying statistics. Not at all. Just saying that everything has to be looked at in perspective. The difference between the 4th most used forward and the 7th most used forward is all of 15 seconds a game. There is about a 30 second different between the 4th most used forward and the 9th most used forward. And there is only a 1:14 difference between Sobotka’s use and the 24th most used player on the team. After our top 3 forwards, there is a jumble of players with very similar 5v5 ice time statistics. He is being used in a similar defensive role as he’s always been used, except he’s averaging about 2 less minutes per game under Housley than he did in all his years in St. Louis (under multiple different veteran head coaches). Also, I think it’s worth mentioning that in Yost’s analysis, the 4th most used forwards he’s comparing Sobotka to are all much better players, and most are on teams with more depth. Most of those 4th most used forwards (like Bergeron for ex.) get way more minutes than Sobotka does, too. Really, more than anything else, I think this report shows just how shallow the depth is on this current Sabres team, and how heavily our top guys are relied on.

Ullmark starting in net tonight and Mittelstadt will be a game time decision. He left the morning skate with some type of lower body injury.

I just hit chapter 4 and have a bit over $10,000. I found the first treasure in chapter 2 and I ended up googling the other treasures and finishing them all. It was well worth the time because I haven’t had to worry about money for anything since about mid chapter 2.

It would not surprise me at all to see the NY Jets go hard after him. They love making splashy moves. Seems like they go after every big name that becomes available.... and I doubt Maccagnan will have any issue with AB’s character. He doesn’t seem to be one that’s overly concerned with “character”. Gase may have concerns, but I’m not sure if he would feel comfortable making a strong stand against a player like AB yet. I will be surprised if the Jets are not at least in the mix.

He was also pretty good in 2016. He was ranked #9 in pass protection by PFF, and finished with an overall rank of 29 out of 72 ranked centers. The main thing that worries me about long are his run blocking grades. It looks like he’s been pretty good in pass protection for most of his career.

Can’t help you teddy... The only part of the Grammy’s I caught was the “best song of the year”, as it just so happened to be on when I walked in the room. I did not know a single song or artist up for best song of the year....

Let’s not blow this Sobotka thing out of proportion guys. Sobotka gets 2 seconds more per game than the next closest forward (Sheary), about 15 seconds more than the next 2 closest forwards (ERod and Larsson) and about 30 seconds more than the next cluster of players. There is only 1:10 ice time per game that separate Sobotka from the guy who gets the least amount of regular ice time on the team. He is 13th in total 5v5 ice time on the team. And it'd worth mentuoning that Sobotka is under his career average ice time by quite a bit. He averaged 16-17mins almost every year in St. Louis. Even under Hitchcock (a very well respected veteran coach). I mean, what do you expect housley to do? ROR was the guy housley relied on to eat all those defensive minutes and he was traded away and replaced with Sobotka and Thompson. Do you consider that an adequate job by Botterill (for this season) to fill that massive hole ROR left? How many head cosches rely on young and/or rookie players to play heavy defensive roles? It’s really not unusual to see a coach rely on a veteran player in a defensive role. And especially in this case, where housley really doesn’t have another veteran defensive forward to rely on. I can almost guarantee that if housley had someone better to fill that role, he’d use them.