HappyDays

Fair to say that luck is involved in winning a Super Bowl. But with better coaching and/or roster management we would have at least come close to a Super Bowl win in three years of elite QB play. One blowout loss in the AFCCG is not close. I will consider the floor of success this year to be a close loss in the AFCCG without a dumb coaching error at the end that causes the loss. Getting to that point just once in four years is not a matter of luck.

Dude that's crazy. If you remove all the plays Mahomes made with his right arm he's the worst player in NFL history.

Tough game to predict because the dynamics will depend on the Steelers and Jaguars. I'm going to predict the score as if it's win and in, lose and snooze, for us... Bills 34 Dolphins 20 Assuming we need this win to get in the playoffs I just see us playing at our absolute best. The Dolphins don't really need this game. I think they will be cautious with their injured players, especially after losing Chubb for the season in garbage time against the Ravens. One team shows up needing the win, the other team shows up licking their wounds and already assured to limp into the playoffs no matter what. I know which team I'm betting on... 20 points is basically where the Dolphins offense has maxed out against good teams this year so that score feels right. As for the Bills, Allen simply has the Dolphins number. I'm not going to predict a total bloodbath like the last time we faced them because our passing offense still is not entirely trustworthy but I think we'll move the ball and put up points. Bold prediction: Bernard scores on a scoop and score off of a Tua fumble to seal the win in the 4th quarter.

Interesting you say that because in my all-22 watch of the offense Kincaid was a big part of the gameplan. In fact I would call this game his true breakout game even though the numbers don't really show it. He did a little bit of everything. He ran with proper leverage to draw coverage away when called for. He ran a couple quick stop routes for 1st downs. He made himself available to Allen on a scramble drill in a critical 2nd and long situation from inside our own 10. He was seemingly the primary target on 3 deep passes (one completed, one was the INT where he had two steps on his defender, one the protection broke down before Allen could get a pass off but he was the wide the hell open downfield). It's really impressive tape and I think it was Brady's first concerted effort to get him involved downfield. More of that to come, I am sure of it.

This makes it all the more frustrating that until Kincaid we hadn't drafted a single pass catcher on day one or two under this regime. The first pass catcher with high level traits that we've drafted and he immediately breaks a franchise record. Please Brandon, keep drafting pass catchers early. Unless they're a complete bust they will immediately produce with Josh Allen throwing them the ball.

I'll admit I'm worried that Diggs' problem right now is mental, not physical. I fear that he has lost a bit of his edge, and any backslide in that department creates a big difference on the field. He has expended a lot of emotional energy over the years to no avail and I wonder if he is now feeling a bit checked out and hollow. Maybe he is banged up a little. But there is also something just plain missing from his play and his demeanor on the field lately... He is making an effort but he isn't playing with his hair on fire like I'm used to seeing. He looks nonchalant when passes in his direction are off target. He has been unwilling to try and disrupt interceptions like the one against the Chargers. He stayed on the sidelines for the entire first drive of the 2nd half but didn't appear to have any physical issues on the field. He and Allen clearly do not have the same relationship they had in 2020 and 2021, there is tension there. I don't know. Something is up and I'm not convinced it is just because of injury.

To win a Super Bowl, a QB eventually has to be able to make something happen even when other things around him are not working. It's bound to happen somewhere along the way in the playoffs. I've never once seen that ability from Tua. He could probably win a Super Bowl on the 49ers but that's a once in a generation superstar offense. Lately Tua has had trouble putting up more than 20 points despite having Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and a very strong RB duo. It isn't gonna get any better than that. He's also shown to be a fragile player. I think they will pay him because they'll feel like they have no choice but IMO Tua is the definition of QB purgatory.

Ideally they would do both. We can't rely on a 1st round caliber WR to even make it to our pick given the importance of the position. Even if we get one, we can't rely on one picked in the 20s to have a major role next year. People expected Kincaid to have a major role this year and instead he has just been a solid role player. And we NEED a WR capable of having a major role next year. It's not optional. Unfortunately Beane has backed himself into a corner. Hopkins was the play because he was an immediate improvement that would have been affordable if we had made an effort. Now we have less cap flexibility and we're coming up on an offseason where guys like Pittman and Higgins are going to get massive contracts. Looking at the FA list I don't expect there to be a good middle class of WRs. There's the $15M+ WRs, and there's the Sherfield/Harty level "upside" projects. This offseason's version of Hopkins would probably be Mike Evans but I expect him to re-sign in TB. I don't know what the solution is. OBJ? Hollywood Brown? I just know I don't want to go into the draft with the same gaping hole at outside WR that we had entering last year's draft. If Beane really wanted to go nuts he could cut Hyde, Poyer, White, and Von and use the resulting cap space to make a real splash signing like Pittman. But that's not his M.O.

Joe spends the first 15 minutes or so of his all-22 review breaking down the offense. It's a good listen. He came away more encouraged than he felt after the live viewing. Specifically he felt a lot more encouraged about Allen's performance. He charted 16 failed drop backs out of 34 total. He assigned blame to Allen for 4 of them (3 misfires, 1 poor decision), the OL for 5 of them, and the pass catchers for 7 of them. Like me he felt that Allen's interception was more on Sherfield and that Allen read the play correctly. It's probably too late to fix the offense unfortunately. Our WRs are not suddenly going to improve. Maybe Torrence can play better but I think it's past the point in his rookie season where he's suddenly going to learn how to win against an inside move. One encouraging thing is almost of all the negative drop backs came in the 1st half, really just the 1st quarter. So it was more a slow start than an all around awful performance. Joe thought that Brady did a great job coordinating the offense and giving plenty of opportunities for plays to be made, the players just didn't execute frequently enough.

@Maine-iac finally found someone that posted the video: It is just bad timing that Austin spins away from the post at the exact moment Allen is throwing the pass. Watch Sherfield's route. He lazily rounds it out and slows down right after his break. Terrible.

This made me realize something that I had felt but wasn't consciously thinking about. Every week over the past month or so the defense is playing with its hair on fire. They might not always perform great but they are rallying to the ball, celebrating after big plays, and just generally look they are playing like their lives are on the line week after week. When they let the opposing offense make a play they don't let it shake them, they're just on to the next play. Everybody looks like they know what their teammates around them are doing and have enough trust in their teammates to simply execute their role on the play. The offense in contrast always looks a bit lethargic to me. It looks like a group of co-workers that have a pleasant enough relationship but aren't going to war for each other. When they have a bad play it often snowballs into a string of bad plays. The players openly show frustration on the field. There is often times a complete lack of cohesion. Allen and his pass catchers aren't always on the same page. The OL miscommunicates and allows free rushers. I think there is really something to this.

Flat out incorrect. I've watched the all-22 and there was only one play where Allen failed to make the right read to an open receiver. Not one play failed because he didn't throw the ball to a check down. Several plays featured immediate losses off the line from McGovern or Torrence and there was nothing he could do.

You'll have to take my word for it, CJ doesn't make stuff up. He is reporting something he was told by an inside source. FWIW Kyle Trimble of Banged Up Bills retweeted it so he also believes the report is reputable.

It has been theorized by many that Allen has been struggling with some kind of shoulder injury this season. Apparent confirmation here: FWIW CJ Caggiano is a reputable insider, I've followed him for a while. Every year he has schedule leaks that turn out to be correct, and he has given a couple injury updates that turned out to be correct as well. Take the info how you will, but if true it could possibly explain some of the recent mechanical issues Allen has had on some of his throws.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/von-miller-7717/ Spotrac shows a post June 1 designation release saves us $6.8m against the cap next year, the cap hit going from $23.8m to $17m. Then in 2025 a dead cap hit of $15.4m. I'd like to think after a full offseason Von will be recovered from his ACL, but he'll be 35 in March so we have to accept that it's possible he will never be the same player again. Tough decision. I think the ideal scenario is get him to agree to a pay cut under threat of release and give him a shot to prove himself next year.

I wonder if they would consider approaching Von about a pay cut? Given his play this year, his age, and his recent legal troubles, he does not have a lot of leverage in that scenario. If he doesn't want to take the pay cut let him go.

Yes you still need talent on defense of course. But that team's Super Bowl aspirations are built on their four headed monster at the skill positions.

Yes having access to Allen's mobility is an advantage Brady has over Dorsey. But it is not close to the advantage that having a true #1 WR gives you. QB power and the tush push are good plays to convert 3rd and 5 or less. They are not easy button plays that consistently put points on the board. This goes without saying but until the midpoint of this season, Diggs has been our easy button answer since we acquired him. In many games over that time frame our offense would fall into a slump, and simply forcing the ball to Diggs was the quick way out of it. We've completely lost that escape hatch. This entire past offseason we discussed if an offense could function with just a #1 but no #2. As of now we have neither. So I guess I just have low expectations for the passing offense in general. Without Diggs playing at his usual standard it's arguably just as poor a group of pass catchers as Mahomes has right now, and even the great Andy Reid can't scheme their way out of that one.

Clearly the Ravens and 49ers. And that is exactly how those teams are built this year. In fact this was the first offseason the Ravens made a serious effort to improve Lamar's weapons, and look at the results. The Eagles would be 3rd for me, despite recent struggles I think they are the type of team that can turn it on in the playoffs. Their issue lately has definitely been defensive coaching. The Dolphins are also clearly built on offensive talent, but like the Eagles they have poor defensive coaching as Vic Fangio appears to be behind the times. It also remains to be seen if a team built entirely on finesse can win tough games in January. Bengals are built that way as well, obviously this is not their year though. The Chiefs defense is built more on defensive scheming than defensive talent IMO, but they forgot the part about investing heavily in offensive talent. Last year they were a good example of that model. I'm sure people are sick of me saying this but you need two very good or better pass catching options to seriously compete for a Super Bowl in the modern NFL. The team that wins the Super Bowl this year will almost certainly meet that standard. Right now the Bills don't even have one and it's their own fault due to lack of investment.

Ask me after the season. Before the season my belief was that the Bills would coast into the #2 or #3 seed with ease but likely fall short of the #1 seed. So I never planned on using the regular season as a measuring stick. I said before the season if McDermott once again has us lose a disappointing playoff game short of the AFCCG I would want to replace him. For me a competitive loss in the AFCCG is the absolute floor of what I would be comfortable with to keep McDermott another year. Of course the regular season went worse than I expected and now we are fighting for our playoff lives. If we beat Miami and get in, McDermott will genuinely have done a great job down the stretch getting the team back on track for a playoff run with a very impressive win streak over a tough stretch of games. Still my initial feelings before the season won't have changed - I need to see him prove he can have this team prepared for a Super Bowl, not a mere playoff appearance which now is just the floor. So playoff success will still be my measuring stick. If we flat out miss the playoffs I'll feel hopeless going into next season knowing that our head coach isn't the one and counting the days until he's fired, hopefully before it's too late to grace Allen's career with at least one championship.

No. Allen isn't reading quantity of defenders in the area, he's reading leverage. That is what QBs are always reading. For example I'm sure you can understand there are cases where a WR that is ostensibly double covered has better leverage than a single covered WR so in that instance the double covered WR would be the right read. If you look at that first screen shot, that is pretty much the exact leverage you want to take that throw. Austin clearly with his back to Kincaid and seemingly following the post, Kincaid's man two steps behind him playing catch up. So the argument seems to be "forget leverage, it's inherently wrong to take a deep shot there." Which if true is a criticism of the play call, not Allen's execution. Austin peeling off of the post (seemingly on the direction of the safety) was unexpected and was simply a great play by him and the safety. Allen isn't predicting the future. He's just reading the leverage at the top of his drop and making the throw accordingly. Like I said Sherfield is probably the most to blame of any player on the field. Collector routes are still routes. He dogged it which meant the spacing was tighter than it should have been. It still wasn't likely that Austin would peel off like he did, but the only reason he had that opportunity is because Sherfield made it an easy read and didn't draw him far enoigh away.

Yeah I think this year in particular has closed that case once and for all. Even on the defensive side. We suffered several major injuries on defense and our highest paid player has been a net negative, yet McDermott has brought the defense back around to a top 10-ish level just with proper scheming. I don't understand having a defensive head coach and also putting most investment into the defense year after year. Let the offense win with talent and let the defense win with scheme. That's how the best teams are doing it.

Probably helpful to note that Dorsey was coaching an offense with a true #1 WR for most of his tenure, while Brady has not had one at all in his tenure. This has created a massive disadvantage that still does not garner enough attention here or in the media. Personally I don't need a total genius at OC necessarily, I just want someone that leans into strengths and avoids weaknesses. Calling a great offense can really be that simple (see: Ben Johnson). I think Brady overall has been much better in this department than Dorsey was. For example he has totally removed Davis as a primary passing target which was a necessary change. He's made it a point to heavily involve Cook who has probably been our best skill player over the past month (which is more a testament to our other skill players than Cook himself, but still true). As others have noted the issue is that we don't really have a lot of strengths so it's going to be a challenge for any OC to lean heavily into them. Is Brady doing the best possible job? Probably not, but I do think it's an improvement on Dorsey and I don't think we'll ever get a truly substantial improvement in offensive coaching unless it comes at head coach. As long as McDermott is here we should assume that we won't have elite offensive coaching and we should compensate for that by heavily investing in the offense every single year.

Most completed deep passes that I see across the NFL are underthrown. It's not the norm that you see one like that perfectly dropped in the bucket and allowing the pass catcher to coast into the endzone. It happens but it's low percentage unless it's someone like Tyreek Hill where it's practically impossible to overthrow them so you can be more loose with the depth of the throw. Typically completed deep passes involve the intended receiver slowing down or completely stopping and making a play at the catch point because they've given themselves enough space to gain leverage. I really do think that if Austin hadn't broken back towards Kincaid it would have been either a completed pass or a DPI. It's almost impossible for a DB two steps behind his man and with his back to the QB to disrupt that pass without committing DPI.

That isn't how Allen can think about the play though. His job is to throw that pass if Kincaid has a step on his man and Austin follows the post. Like I said I am not a fan of this play call in this moment. Still Allen is just executing the play call. It sounds like you just prefer check downs over vertical shots in general because it really doesn't get more open than that. Allen did underthrow the ball, I won't argue that. I think in situations like that where the intended receiver has room to spare QBs tend to cheat towards underthrowing it a bit instead of risking an overthrow. Give Kincaid a chance to make a play or make it almost impossible for the DB to break it up without committing DPI. Allen didn't miss anything. Johnson is there as a check down if both downfield routes are covered up. From Allen's perspective that was not the case so he took the shot. It seems like you just want the RBs to be more involved as pass catchers and that's fine, but don't let that impact the analysis of Allen's process on this play in particular. To me it's a greedy play call that features poor route spacing, poor salesmanship from Sherfield, and an underthrow from Allen. I have no issues with Allen's decision making here.