HappyDays

It's crazy how he keeps finding himself in these situations. Must be the unluckiest guy that ever lived.

The problem is we have constantly thrown ample resources at the defense, and they still fall apart in the playoffs year after year. I agree that championship teams typically have better defensive showings than what the Bills have fielded in the playoffs. But it's getting to a point where you have to look beyond the players. We keep switching out the players on defense but the result is always the same. Against the Chiefs this year the defense arguably turned in its worst playoff performance of the McDermott era when accounting for the caliber of the opponent. So it is getting worse, not better. I hope McDermott is taking a long hard look at himself this offseason. That's where the big defensive improvement is going to come from, not from further imbalancing the defense vs offense resource investment. On offense I have felt that the problem is the exact opposite of what I just described. The offense under Allen regularly shows up in the playoffs and performs above its regular season standard. I haven't had many qualms with offensive coaching in those games. Instead I have observed that a few critical plays a game are swung in our opponent's direction because of player error. A dropped pass here, an OL breakdown there. And every one of these player mistakes is magnified because the offense is being forced into a shootout due to the aforementioned defensive failures. So I don't believe adding more defensive players is going to solve our fundamental problem on that side of the ball, whereas adding more offensive players will solve our fundamental problem on that side of the ball. Kincaid came in as a rookie and had an immediate positive impact, breaking a couple franchise records along the way and scoring a TD in the playoffs. I'm still waiting for a highly drafted defensive player to have that kind of impact. At this point the Bills should just focus on making a move that they know will have a measurable positive impact on the team, and drafting a WR high in a WR-rich draft is too obvious an answer not to do it.

Wouldn't call it a 1 year deal. It's a $6M dead cap hit to cut him next offseason, only saving $3M according to Spotrac. OTC has it even worse: https://overthecap.com/player/daquan-jones/3051 They are saying it would be a $7.25M dead cap hit to cut him in 2025. Not sure which report is correct.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/daquan-jones-14523/ $4.5M cap hit this year, $9M in 2025, then two void years. This is an overpay IMO.

Why did we give him $2.6M?? This is an awful signing if that number is true, and apparently it may cost us a comp pick. We need to stop being obsessed with special teams players.

Probably both. More on the field play if I had to guess. The wall comes fast for WRs. Beane is smart to let it play out and make sure Diggs hasn't fallen off a cliff before tying us to him for another several years.

Only thing I'll say about the latest Diggs controversy is I don't expect the Bills to offload him this year, but I also don't think he is in their long term plans. Beane had a chance to save $13.1M off the cap this year with a simple restructure of his contract. He chose not to touch it. IMO that spells the beginning of the end.

Samuel as of right now is a better player than Shakir. This post screams "I only watch the Bills." If Shakir hit the market right now he wouldn't be getting $8M AAV with $15M guaranteed. He isn't the caliber of player that stops you from trying to improve the position when a good opportunity presents itself. I appreciate Shakir's toughness and natural instincts after the catch but he was not an answer for our man coverage woes last year. Samuel is genuinely very good against man. And unlike Shakir he can actually play outside. I suspect for example all of the perimeter screens that went to Diggs last year with minimal success will now go to Samuel. So he raises our floor in a number of ways. Some people are getting way too caught up in worrying about his best spot in the formation. The #1 and only priority this offseason was adding legit starting caliber talent to the WR room. It's laughable that now the complaint is "the Bills are going to have TOO MANY receivers." There will be injuries, rotation, varying game plans focusing on different skillsets to beat different matchups. This is a regime that has regularly spent a lot of money on players 2-3 deep at every single spot on the DL. But for some fans doing the same at WR is an unspeakable sin. I can guarantee you right now the effect of Curtis Samuel on the roster will be much more than the combined effect of Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle on the roster. Beane's only mistake is that he waited this long to make the philosophical change. If Beane next does the easy and obvious move and selects the best WR remaining with his 1st pick we will finally have the long awaited influx of talent that this group has desperately needed. If that leads to a player like Shakir getting less attention, all that means is he will also face more favorable matchups which can only a good thing.

My theory was that we were coming off the heels of the Matt Araiza story and the team was looking for a bit of good will in the locker room. Knox had just lost his brother... it was an immediate infusion of good news at a time when the team needed it. And he came off a year where he scored 9 TDs. They bet on his upside and it unfortunately didn't pay off.

Good point. We would take a $12.47M dead cap hit, which would be $1.6M in savings. I'm not sure what the trading team would owe him, that would determine his trade value.

We also added two void years to his contract, $2.33M in 2027, $1.17M in 2028. The actual pay cut he took was probably for around $3M in real cash.

Actually saved us $4.2M this year: https://overthecap.com/player/rasul-douglas/5685 He previously had a $7.5M cap hit in 2024, now it is a $3.3M hit. Of course this means his void years over the next 3 years are higher to make up the difference.

Details are in: https://overthecap.com/player/dawson-knox/7887 He went from a $14.3M cap hit in 2024 to a $7.7M cap hit. So $6.6M in savings this year. His cap hit in 2025 year is also slightly cheaper, by about $1.4M. The one downside is it's harder to get out of his contract in 2025. Cutting him pre-6/1 next year will now actually cost us more, whereas before it would have saved us money. Most likely scenario I think is we designate him as a post-6/1 cut next offseason. I don't think we will keep him for a $14M cap hit next year.

I've been critical of Diggs' antics, but tweeting "ready for whatever" is not remotely worth worrying about.

I was told Blackmon is off their radar because of his medicals.

It hasn't been disclosed that it is $7M guaranteed. The current report is a $7M salary that can get up to $11M with incentives. You seemingly don't understand how guarantees work? $15M > $7M (or whatever amount he has had guaranteed). The number of years doesn't matter. Players care about the total guaranteed number. By your logic every player would love to be hit with the franchise tag, when the exact opposite is true. They want multi year deals with long term security. Nobody is intentionally turning down a long term deal with more guaranteed money to "bet on themselves." That's nonsense. Sure if two teams offered him the same prove-it deal he would take Mahomes over whoever else to maximize the "prove-it" part, but if say the Panthers offered him $15M guaranteed over 3 years he would 100% take it without hesitation. You must be the type of fan that thinks Dawson Knox took a pay cut because he just loves Buffalo so much 😂

Where did you see that? No it isn't. That's not a thing that happens.

Their deals aren't similar at all. NFL players want multi year deals with guarantees. That security is worth everything to them. The NFL has pegged Marquise Brown as someone that hasn't earned that security. He has to prove it. Samuel got a multi year deal and $15M in guarantees. Not sure what guarantees Brown is getting but it's $7M at the very most and that's if his deal is fully guaranteed, which I doubt.

I know some fans don't pay close attention to the NFL but WRs like him have fallen out of favor a bit. A slim small WR who mostly just runs vertical routes, in a league where pretty much every defense is playing two high shell as their base. Again he is still a good addition for the Chiefs given their moribund WR corps and a QB with great vertical accuracy, but it's not a big surprise that a WR with his skill set is getting a relatively cheap one year prove it deal.

I'm good going cheap at safety. The breadth of the FA market means we can get solid starters in the cheap 2nd wave.

And yet there are still about 10 million decent safeties waiting to be signed.

Yeah Brown had a Davis-esque catch percentage of 50.5% last year. That's why he is signing a one year prove it deal. It's a good signing for them though. He will give them at bare minimum a better version of MVS's role last year

? It's not cherry picking. Samuel was injured for most of the 2021 season, playing just 84 snaps. I don't agree that Brown is the better player. He does his one trick very well. I wanted a more versatile WR2 which is why I zeroed in on Mooney, Reynolds, and Samuel before FA. Now the door is open to draft a WR with dominant physical traits in the 1st round and plant him on the outside.