shoshin

I wanted you to convince me of at least the Swoosh.

This is only the beginning of the end of the beginning unless we are lucky. This is just a little good news on the first wave of infections.

But it’s not related to Covid-19.

I agree. The feds can control the state's decisions on shut downs. Many here have been saying the opposite.

But it has nothing to do with this virus, right?

He says it’s his decision not governor’s. He may change his mind about this Like he often does but he said it.

It's early. The personal insults and bullying are just around the corner! But really, this thread is a "10" when it stays on topic. Doc's discussion about oxygen, Trump's tweets on his right to control the states, recovery talk. I want to start the climb out so I look forward to hearing those plans. And I agree with how Trump communicates. I believe that if the administration talks like Trump talked, but puts out "suggested" plans, it will give governors political cover to "follow" what the federal government says to do. Governors can say, "Look at what they are saying...I had no choice." Seems cockamamie to me but as long as it is centrally planned and coordinated, I'm for it.

You seemed to be saying "interstate commerce" was in some way a limit on the authority of the federal government's power over the states. The opposite is historically true. The commerce clause has been used by the federal government to steamroll states

That's not what he said. He was pretty clear. He believes it is not up to governors to open up the states. It is up to him.

The Commerce Clause has been used to override the amendments many times.

100% agreed. NYC Metro is still 50% of the US cases and deaths. It's not like anyplace. I think he's saying the federal government would control the process. I don't think the government would have a one size fits all plan for 50 states. It would just control the process, as it should to make reopening work.

So much for the tenth amendment and for good reason in this mess. We need a national plan, not regional patchwork crap. Most posters here disagree with Trump passionately on this but not me.

This isn’t right. It’s safe-ish but effectiveness not yet known. 100% Worth a try but there is no scientific basis yet for effectiveness. A young world class athlete recovering from Covid-19 is not the anecdote we need for HCQ!

I read that today. Generic and non-specific. Nothingburger. Several lead stories today forecasting very slow economic recovery. This makes sense. Some of it may be fear but I also just don’t see companies jumping back to capacity quickly. My clients who just fired 30+% of their workforce won’t be getting 100% of their orders back for a while. I am watching the university scene with interest. I am guessing this is going to be a catastrophic year for private colleges. It’s not easy to get 70K/year commitments from families right now.

At least one ongoing study and lots of conversation about it among health care systems because it floods O2. The treatment teams know this is an oxygen issue and have been trying all the analogous solutions for other oxygen deprivation related conditions. HCQ is being tried because malaria destroys hemoglobin so there is some hope that a drug that works that pathway effectively against a hemoglobin goblin (!) might work here. A shot in the dark but everyone is trying anything they can think of.

Yes. But we have limited hyperbaric chambers. Understanding the mechanism is an early step in treatment so at least we are there in the fight to make progress.

Somewhere there’s an acceptable deaths and hospitalization number, not that I expect or would want anyone in government to state it but it exists. To reopen the economy, our peak of 2000/day until vaccine is too high for deaths. At 100-200, it’s probably an acceptable risk. (Horrible conversation but it’s happening somewhere.) Right now we are probably looking at 4000+ per day easy without any restrictions/testing/tracking.

What do you think the daily death rate would be if we didn’t lockdown? We peaked at 2K/day in a lockdown situation. At lest double to quadruple seems right. And it would go on longer. The numbers get really bad quickly.

That’s not new over the last month. It’s why we need less ventilators too. The doctors have recognized oxygen deprivation is the issue for a long time, which is why using a pulse oximeter is a good measure of disease progress. And they have understood the virus’s effect on hemoglobin too. Everywhere they try to give oxygen very early if the patient is suffering (hoping unaffected hemoglobin can work with the extra O2 to assist its transport). The ventilator is a Hail Mary to help if the lungs are massively distressed. If we could figure out how to stop the virus from blocking the hemoglobin’s ability to transport oxygen, that would be the big breakthrough.

Nothing will rival NYC in the US. That's clear at this point. But I'm not sure how Florida will stack up against states like PA, where PA is peaking now and FL is still to peak in 3 weeks, and currently they have about the same case count. Case count is a dubious number but if it's equally dubious in both states, then it's at least the same error in both. I hope it gets spared.

Anecdotally, my brother says his covid-only floor in Buffalo keeps getting much busier each day. He is working a ton.

Florida has cases in line with other places and even ahead of them from where they were a few weeks ago. They are not projected to peak for 3 more weeks while other states NY, NJ, PA) in the NE are peaking now. I think it's a little too early to say it is out of the woods yet. I hope so but Spain and Italy didn't drop precipitously and in fact are running a little lower than their highs but sat for a long time within 20% of its peak deaths. It might just be a holiday and things are getting undercounted. It's really hard to look at a single day and feel too confident. Still better to be down than up. (Spain also big drop today)

The UK, I believe, tried to do this originally, had a non-compliant citizenry of people wanting to go to the local pub and hang out in large groups, and now has more deaths/day than any country in Europe by nearly 2X. The approach can probably work (Sweden, Japan), but only as much as people will do the right things with respect to masks, voluntary distancing, extra hygiene...and once available, testing like mad and probably tracing to bring it well in hand.

The only solution when you take this tone and look this bad on the internet is seppuku. I wish you an honorable death. Sweden is culturally an anomaly. I will find the number but some incredibly high number of people Live alone there. Plus they have only 3 population centers of note, and a highly educated and compliant with sensible distancing rules population. There will be cultures to emulate coming out of this. Sweden is one to watch. But I still wonder at India. Sure it’s hot there now as they enter their warm season but they have 1.4 billion people living in each other’s laps.

Someone yesterday was posting they thought the virus was already spread to 75% of the US population. A claim that cannot be true. Random testing of 1500 people in Austria and (unsure sample size) in Iceland shows 0.33 and 0.45% positive cases respectively. For those countries, 75% is is about 75% too high. https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/coronavirus-study-finds-twice-as-many-infections-in-austria-than-earlier-thought-11586523316 Our infection rate in some areas is higher maybe but what we are seeing now is a really small wave of infections, and that’s the danger.