shoshin

The media is no friend to Trump and sometimes us, and Trump is often no friend to himself or us. You seem to have your jihad on this in other threads and I'm skipping that. I'm all for stopping covid-19, whether it's using HCQ to minimize symptoms or monitoring patient contacts so we can get the hell back to work. If the government wanted to execute everyone that came in contact with a covid-19 patient, that would go too far, but tracking does not. I will not be a Constitutional purist about this. This is a war. We need war-like measures. Do you think you'd have the same rights you have on your mobile phone if we were in a global shooting war with China? No. We are all sitting home without the right to assemble (thus abridging our 1st amendment "right" to peaceably assemble)...I would like my right to assemble re-established in exchange for a limited sacrifice of my right to privacy while we stave this off. So let's get on with tracking for a limited time, whether it's government run or privately controlled, so we can get out of this mess. If not, let's all go french kiss pangolins and see who makes it out the other side.

Per capita is a more telling stat on testing. We all know that we need lots more testing.

I like voting by paper. No lines. I can take my time. Paper or electronic, whatever. It’s a state by state issue with fraud accusations more exciting than real. It’s going to take a long time to count all those though!

It sucks and people are working on it as hard as they can. You can’t make these things appear overnight. There are people everywhere not getting tested. Some for lack of tests. Some for lack of ppe for testers. Some because they should stay home because we don’t want others exposed. It’s a tough time. The hope on testing is that it will be there, and way more organized (away from hospitals) for the next wave.

Without going too far off track, your responses on this point remind me of people freaking out that it took 2 days to get medical supplies to Katrina victims. Disasters are called that for a reason.

I can't blame anyone for lack of testing. The lost month of February hurts but that's behind us. Going forward, I'm sure we will have loads of PPE and a better system for dealing with Covid-21 but here at Covid-19, we just need to keep ramping up.

That statistic relies on case counts, which we know is grossly low by as much as 10x. I would love to have good numbers. It’s also why the criticism of the modelers is so misplaced. They are modeling a new disease using ***** data. It’s a no win task.

The death count is the best measure we have. It’s not entirely accurate but that works both ways. Lots of bodies are not being tested, so there are estimates saying the count is low by half. There’s no better measure of progress of this disease that we have.

Daily death toll at 1900+ now higher than the average daily deaths for heart disease. Considering we had 15 cases a month ago, that’s a stunning acceleration—and one that distancing is helping control. One hope is that all the cases and field treatments lead to something effective quickly like the HCQ treatment that I wish was not such a stupid political lightning rod.

That article has numbers, including this one that shows the rural cases didn't rise at the same time as the urban areas, but are rising now.Hopefully that slope continues to be less steep but it's not like it's about to level. Cases are also increasing in more states now, where before this was almost entirely driven by NYC and northern NJ. Buffalo, from my brother who has volunteered to shift from his hospital to work at St. Joe's (Buffalo's dedicated Covid-19 hospital), has 3X as many cases now as it had 2 days ago. That number won't be going down. The deaths and cases won't rival NYC because of the population difference but this is a problem that appears to be progressing everywhere. The distancing is working but no place is immune to this just because they drive more or have more space. They just won't have the NYC experience. The place that is surprising is CA. Despite all the people, it has very low #s.

You exaggerate of course. Are we not "at war" as the president constantly says?

My biggest concern too. And we can't have a state-by-state plan where NYS opens fully and PA stays shut down because that just messes up PA. It has to be centrally managed and agreed to. The crowd here hates talk of a national plan, so let's just say the all the governors cede their decisions on this to a central power to organize them coming out of this. Whatever you want to call it. It just cannot be state by state.

Rural America is currently seeing a rise in deaths/1000 at a similar rate as urban areas. It has just taken longer to get there. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/08/us/coronavirus-rural-america-cases.html No part of America is immune to this, except those that change their actions dramatically.

They already have the ability. I prefer this small wave of Covid-19 to be the only one, except for isolated outbreaks.

Update: One business's experience. My banker just told me that the SBA "approved" our PPP request. Things he said he doesn't know yet: (1) What amount is approved (the amount we requested or some lesser amount). (2) If they will adjust the amount, pay it at once, or pay it in installments. (3) How they will get it to me. (4) Whether they will want more information before distributing it. (5) When it will be available. But it's "approved." That's better than whatever I had yesterday. I'll keep updating my fellow business owners on our progress. (We applied for very little by the way, but even a little will help our cash flow...as I go on 3 weeks without a bill being paid!)

Distancing is working so this wave will come in 30-60K dead over 3 months. The next wave(s)? Who knows. I really hope they come up with an effective treatment fast. HCQ, Z-packs, whatever. Anything to get most people back on their feet faster. If we are going to just re-open without a good process to track, that is essential to keeping any economy up and our healthcare system from tanking more than it is.

I value my business, my family/community's health, and our economy more than putting up with a covid-tracking-app, where that tracking THAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING can help manage our way out of this crisis. If we don't have the backbone to do this right, this two month shutdown was a waste of time because we will be right back here in September or October, with even higher case counts. I don't see installing an app on my phone as a question I am debating on the civil liberty purity test right now. Trump has said we are at war. In times of war, you do give up certain liberties. Always.

Yeah that doesn’t work.

Wells Fargo is my normal bank. They did not work well for this. Good luck--I was able to use a local bank but mostly just because I had a friend who could help me.

Have a plan to deal with it. We are triaging the current wave out of necessity. If we allow the bigger waves to come, and this may be unavoidable, we need to be better prepared to meet them. This is part of a lot of scientific analyses of how this will go, so he's just saying what most scientists accept. To think of what's going on now as anything more than the first wave of many is wishful thinking unless we take drastic measures. As long as there are a few hundred cases here, the 99% of people who don't get it in this wave are at risk. I think we can be ready to slowly reopen on June 1 but it will take a national plan, national backbone, and diligence.

That was the topic he was addressing with his interesting chart about the pneumonia/flu cases dropping, so that's why it was still being discussed.

25% would be nothing. Without tracking, we are just saying “***** it.” And if you want a private solution, get Walmart, Target, McD, Starbucks, etc to have a greeter That scans your App on the way in or turn your ass around. If the app shows that it’s been “active” and not disabled for 10 days, come on in and shop. If not, see ya. That would get some compliance. Voluntary but the price of getting the benefits of the economy. If you want to be a purist about your rights until this passes, grow your own food. People could of course work around it but most would understand that like mask wearing (what about all the robberies...clutches pearls), this is an important piece of getting back to work.

I wonder where you live or if you know anyone in health care. If you live in one of the big cities, it’s a clusterF right now. Not “stressed.” Not just NYC. This isn’t media hyperbole on this point. The healthcare system is straining mightily under just this, while kicking the can down the road on all the other patients who need help. Do you agree? Or are you still wanting Twitter videos like in the other thread you started? I made this point earlier. There is some sloppy counting being done I’m sure but it’s hard to know which way it balances out. Either way, there are a lot of people dying from this in a blink compared to any cause, but especially the flu.

I agree with most of this (maybe not the Middle Ages hyperbole but I’ll go with risk of long term depression). The tracking can be done via cell phones. Not perfect but if we are tracking 85% of the population and contract tracking via an app that warned you when you had been in close contact with someone, it could work. And even with that, we would need people to act responsibly. I don’t see the tracking teams of Korea working here. Too big. Too many people. No infrastructure for it. But it sure as ***** works to test the hell out of people and track contacts. Their success rate is amazing.

My hypothesis is that social distancing and other restrictions have a much greater effect on the flu. Given how short it lingers in the body, the flu would be affected more by distancing and you’d see the drop above. Some misdiagnoses could be part of it too. But just look at hospitalizations and how wracked our health care system is right now to see that whether some of the deaths are mislabeled or not, this is super serious and different from a simple flu or pneumonia.