shoshin

Is twice as many deaths and still several weeks behind the growth curve some kind of victory? It’s not a competition but if it was, we would not be winning. Take Lombardy out and ... NYC is America.

Refused? You think these people were not tested because the health care system had tests and people to do the test but they just didn’t want to? What world are you living in? Doctors would love to test everyone they could.

The priority now is consistency. There is no doubt that we are recording positive tests for only *some* of the dead. That is a nightmare. inconsistent data is a current enemy on the data front more than accurate data. When we have the ability to test everyone, we will have better data. And we will still have the inaccurate historical record of presumed Covid vs tested Covid, for whatever that data point may be worth. Doctors can make a judgment about a Covid death. It may be wrong but it’s not a wild ass guess. As tests and human resources become more available, the data will improve. If you want to consider a crappy data point, think about the case counts. At least with deaths you have a body.

Re the above... If we had adequate resources, you are right. But we don’t and didn’t in NYC especially. Currently all we can hope for is consistency so this makes sense. And the symptoms of Covid are not to be easily confused with the flu. There is overlap but coroners can make an educated conclusion.

What world do you live in where you think there are people who think “the numbers are not high enough.” The CDC is trying to get to consistency in reporting by following consistent guidelines across the country. Sorry to the people who think this was being overcounted, but most reports were that this was undercounted because bodies that were not swabbed were not counted as Covid, even though coroners listed Covid as the cause due to symptoms leading up to death. Once this is consistently applied across the country, all the state info can present a picture of progression that is easier to picture. It’s yet another reason why national guidelines matter. Consistent death reporting will lead to better management and projection. I hope but don’t know that adding these deaths back in will show we’ve declined in deaths recently.

Agree with this and your phrasing. The government enforces our rights and when they in conflict, one right often prevails over another.

You can't "fire" in a crowded theater. Your freedom of expression is overridden due to public health concerns. There are so many examples like this that it really doesn't bear listing. The point is this: The government 100% has the right to abridge constitutional rights when another right prevails. The prevention of worshipping in parking lots was dumb. I'm not wasting time on stupid governors making one-off dumb decisions and it's being addressed. Much more worried about big decisions that save lots of lives and reopen our economy soon. Italy is pretty linear. See above, which is a similar pattern as its deaths.

The data does not show what the quote says it shows, and the paper is in Hebrew so I can't read it. The peak happens and lingers. It does not happen and "rapidly fall off. Italy's infections have been pretty steady now for almost a month. What his study may say is that the exponential growth turns linear after a while, which means zero acceleration. The numbers bear that out. But without quarantine, we would be linear at not 2000 deaths per day where we are now, but probably 2-4 times that. And that's a big GD number.

Will break 2000 again today or so it seems. Just like last Tuesday, this was not a single day spike.

But none of the tests transmitted the virus. I was questioning that part. The Constitution protects your rights but sometimes the rights are in conflict, and one right overrides another. That's what happens in times of war or pandemic, and even at other times. This has always been true.

The WHO tests transmitted the virus to people--Can you link to that?

Not true. Italy, France and the UK have done this. If you look at the notes at the bottom on certain days, you can see the Worldometer people making notations when countries do this. France in particular has been a cluster of messed up day-to-day reporting.

Your summary is not what the scientists in the article say. Negative headlines get eyeballs though. Here’s an alternative accurate summary. Virus mutates to less harmful variant. Vaccines may be adapted in future, similar to flu. RNA replication is sloppy. Mutations are expected.

The highest day before was 5 days ago. And the big leap before that was not on a Tuesday. The last time it jumped on a Tuesday and you said this, the total stayed high, so that really doesn’t stand up. It only would make sense if Tuesdays were big leaps and then the number dropped.

It won’t if we don’t get back to work very soon. The July August talk is a bomb. I like a working economy. The virus is what it is. This was a good shutdown if we act in a way that makes it a single event in one wave. It is a debacle if we open early and the cases jump and surpass our current peak. I hope the politicians make the right call. Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.

More to come.

2400+ dead today. Really big jump. the highest before today was just over 2000. I hope this is the peak for this wave. I doubt it’s the peak for us as a country because I don’t see that we have the will to do what needs to be done to keep the economy rolling and manage this at the same time. Trying to remain optimistic but the will for people to do what’s needed seems lacking. People want their cell phones free of apps. People want to walk the beach. People want to go to church in groups. If nothing gives on this, we all give.

You haven’t seen anything yet. No one has. How about we see why the guidelines say and try to follow them so we get back to work and don’t cause more shutdowns?

Just follow the guidelines.

just like they are telling you to stay home now, yes.

Deaths have been reported undercounted too. No matter how you slice it, we have a *****-ton of Covid deaths. A new deaths high in the US today. ~10% more than the high of 5 days ago. *****.

This is a good alert but that website is a mash of pop-ups and junk full screen promotions. This link may be better for the same content. https://abc7.com/gavin-newsom-press-conference-daily-update-coronavirus-in-california/6102767/ Six parameters: 1. A widespread expansion of coronavirus testing; 2. "Vigilant" protection of California's most vulnerable residents; 3. Focus on hospital care infrastructure and personal protective equipment, or PPE; 4. Engage researchers in academia, incuding the University of California, and at health and technology companies on the front lines of the pandemic; 5. "Redraw floor plans" at business locations with physical distancing in mind; 6. Determining when to re-institute certain measures, such as stay-at-home orders. He says to ask him again in two weeks how they are coming on these and about timing of reopening. Pretty sensible approach. Leaves off tracking but it's a general structure for a plan.

Another voice advocating for using an app to track people’s movements via their cell phones. Good. He makes the interesting point that you’d need fewer tests if this was implemented, which is something I hadn’t considered.

You’re making my point. Summer vacation from school is a time for a lot of kids to go to camps and other daytime activities. Those will only be open and available if they can be. Parents need them. It’s part of how they “figure it out” to use your phrase.

We interrupt this program for an announcement about the pending announcement.