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boater

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Posts posted by boater

  1. Dangle Kincaid as trade bait. He has been disappointing, but could flourish in the right system. I remember Dallas was after him in the draft.

     

    EDIT: I mean, you have to give something of value to get something of value. Other GMs are not suckers. Some of the trade proposals here assume just that. If you are serious about getting a player who can contribute immediately, you have to give up a good player or a 1st or 2nd round draft pick. We have 3 good TE, we could survive with two.

     

    Me? I suggest the Bills stand pat. The market is crap, as suggested by OP.

    • Disagree 2
    • Haha (+1) 1
  2. The KC game is the time where in fairness we can be judgmental of Beane.

     

    He dedicated the draft and free agency to build a DL to pressure Mahomes. That was his baby. His DL creation is almost fully intact and ready to go, will they be successful Sunday? Michael Hoecht, and Larry Ogunjobi had a great game in Carolina, I think that will continue.

     

    Also, I don't think the Bills want a repeat of someone taking it to them in their own house again. That's just a hunch I have.

     

     

     

     

    • Like (+1) 1
  3. 21 minutes ago, CirclnWagons said:

    My opinions on the rest of the season rely heavily on the actions taken by the front office prior to the deadline. There are some gaping holes on this team and if we make a meaningful move or two then I am optimistic that there is belief they can compete for a championship. If not, it’s just another year of seeing how far they can ride on Josh’s other worldly talent and being totally fine going home early 

    Boy, are you going to be disappointed.

     

    The Front Office is not going to make any big news--it can barely make one move. Multiple moves is out of the question.

    • Agree 2
  4. 4 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

    I have worked with a lot of leaders in my career, many of which did not impact me and some impacted me negatively. I don't think it's fair to credit them for any of my success. If you asked Dabs or Brady, who is the most influential coach in your career at the professional level I would bet a few nickels that name is not going to be Sean McDermott. 

     

    If your leader can't develop other leaders is that an issue or a different angle to consider in evaluating him? Dan Campbell has two coordinators as HC's.  Kyle Shanahan has 2 and Robert Saleh. McVay has 4. Hell, even Todd Bowles has two. Sean has Daboll and Daboll doesn't even like Sean. So are we really linking them together? 

     

     image.thumb.png.10cfc8df1d879110b9fa0bf04afd5dc3.png

     

    I don't understand what you think a coaching tree is?

    • your first paragraph makes it seem all about approach to football (that is what I think of with a coaching tree). Such as the Walsh/Holmgrem/Reid offense.
    • your second paragraph makes it seem about people's leadership relationships and affinity toward one another. Who worked for whom.

    If Dabs or Brady are not leadership-influenced by McD as you suggest, where do you put them on the chart? Are they islands to themselves? Or do you put them where best fits their football philosophy?

     

    Eh, coaching tree is a nebulous concept. Therefore a discussion that tries to pigeon hole coaches and make judgements from a coaching tree is a futile exercise.

     

     

     

     

    • Agree 1
  5. 18 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

    Google AI just presented the definition of the term "regression to the mean". AI did not predict anything about Lyon's play.  

     

    Pardon me, I drew an inference from Google. People draw inferences all day at TSW.

     

    Google said professional athletes may have a spike in performance then usually return to their average:  

     

    It is more likely than not, Lyon's recent play will regress to his usual average.

     

    You don't hear of goalies having a sudden performance improvement--and then sustaining it for the long run. It's not like a QB or CB whose performance improves when they suddenly get it and understand the system.

     

    Lyon:

    • Career GAA; 2.99
    • 2025 GAA: 2.43

     

    He'll be back in the 2.99 range any day now.

  6. 1 hour ago, That's No Moon said:

    Which are both well above his career numbers so a regression is coming at some point.

     

    Yep. Even Google AI thinks so.

     

    Quote

    Why regression to the mean happens.

     

    A goalie's performance is not a fixed, predictable outcome but a product of both their underlying skill and the random element of luck. 

     

    Performance vs. ability: A goalie's performance in any given game will fluctuate above or below their true skill level. A spectacular stretch of games is often a period where a high level of skill is amplified by a run of good luck.

     

    Luck is unsustainable: Factors like lucky bounces, opponent misses, and timely post-hits contribute to an exceptionally high save percentage. Since this level of good luck is not repeatable, performance will inevitably drift back toward the established average.

     

    Small sample size: A "couple of really good games" represents a very small sample size of performance. The smaller the sample, the greater the statistical chance of having an extreme result that doesn't reflect the long-term trend.

     

    Goaltending is inconsistent: Year-to-year goaltender performance is notoriously difficult to predict, which underscores the role of random chance. Even elite goalies can follow up a Vezina-caliber season with a mediocre one

     

  7. I don't think a trade will happen.

     

    The new team is responsible for the player's base salary, and any remaining guaranteed money. A team with limited cap space is restricted to acquiring players with smaller remaining salaries unless they can perform creative accounting.

     

    The 2025 salary cap constrains Bean's ability to maneuver.

     

    I suppose Bean could trade an expensive player to get an expensive player, but of our good players, who can we really give up?

  8. 17 hours ago, JP51 said:

    Babich - cause he is babich, tackling, scheme, basic lining up for the first snap of the game...1st Fing snap... coverage, gap coverage shedding blocks, intensity... I could go on... 

     

     

    If Babich were on the market looking for a team, he would be unemployed for a long time.

    • Like (+1) 1
  9. 15 hours ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

    Generally speaking, great players fail as coaches … mediocre players often make excellent coaches. The name escapes me at the moment, but the QB guru who is widely credited with reinventing Josh wasn’t a good quarterback 

    Carson Palmer is the QB whisperer who wasn't that great of a QB.

     

    Not to be confused with his brother Jordan Palmer, who also was not an accomplished QB. Jordan played for Buffalo for four days "On August 25, 2014, Palmer signed with the Buffalo Bills, but was released on August 29"

     

    While they both weren't hot QBs, they managed to make a good living off of football.

     

    EDIT CORRECTION: I got the Palmer's mixed up. Jordan worked with Josh.

     

     

    • Thank you (+1) 1
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