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BuffaloMatt

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    Article: E.J. is beating out Cassel and Taylor in OTA's

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    I don't really think you can blame a QBs development entirely on the coaching staff. Was Dan Marino's QB coach a superstar? Was Elway, Manning or Jim Kelly's QB coaches really what made them successful? Or even more, was Marv Levy, or Tony Dungy what made them winners?

     

    How about this thought: Maybe...... juuuuuust maybe EJ really isn't that good, and we whiffed on the pick. Maybe he is exactly what he appears to be, a great, intelligent, hard working guy that just can't handle the speed of the game once he's on the field. I can't see how Marrone did that to him when you watch some game film from FSU, read the breakdown of his game, and the pre-draft analysts analysis and tell me those things don't read like a post game analysis of any game he played in for the Bills.

     

    I would love to see him prove all of that wrong, I like the guy, he seems like the perfect fit to be a franchise guy on size and maturity alone, but I'd also like to win the lottery and I don't see either happening.

     

     

    personally, I have been told I have the best practice swing of any golfer anyone has ever seen, but once the ball is in front of my club all bets are off, and I'm lucky not to kill anyone withing 200 yard of my shot immediately to my right. I think this is what we are seeing... a great practice performance.

    I think you nailed it right on the head. Unfortunately so. . . .

    Our QB's look "bad" against our D-What QB's don't?

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    Poor anticipation could be caused by the fear of knowing the DB's could be baiting them into throwing the ball so they could pick it off...not saying this is definitely the reason, but if any QB had to go up against our D on a daily basis they would probably come away a little skittish...

    You would think any QB who would have to go against our D on a daily basis would get better and perform against lesser Ds. I can't wait to camp and pre-season to see if there is a correlation.

    A interesting take on Tyrod by Joe Redemann

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

     

    There are some good points in there. However, overall, it doesn't impress me much. The big picture why in one sentence: he misuses statistics abominably to make his point, and most of his argument boils down to "he wasn't great in college and he's been a backup 4 years and As he Was, So Shall he Always Be". This is a clearly fallacious argument which could be used to prove that Matt Schaub should still be starting and so should John Elway.

     

    The bottom line is that athletes change, for better or for worse, and pro sports is a game of "what have you done for me lately?"

     

    For those who would like to go under the hood:

     

    Argument #1: Poor QB skillset. "His career completion rate was a paltry 57.2% in the not-so-daunting ACC". True, but one needs to look at the numbers that make up the average. In Taylor's case, his completion percentage went up 6%, his passing yardage tripled, and his TD/INT ratio rose from 1.7 to 4.8. So he clearly was changing (improving) and the question is: where did he level out?

     

    Argument #2: Draft position. Any player drafted in later rounds has a lower probability to a) stick on an NFL roster b) become an NFL starter. The article linked more clearly defines the 60% probability as being that the guy even gets a year on an NFL roster. So there's a 40% chance that a 6th rounder will get 1 year on an NFL roster. Now what are the odds that a guy (on a contending team that signs and drafts other players) gets 4 years on an NFL roster? I bet they shift, and the fact that a guy survives those odds may say something.

     

    The more important point, is: statistics really aren't predictive of an individual's performance. QB drafted in the 1st round have a higher probability of success. But that doesn't mean the guy drafted in the first is a sure-fire winner - only that he has something like a 50% chance of being a long-term NFL starter vs. 20-30% or less in the 2nd through 4th rounds and more like 5% in the 6th or later. Likewise, statistics really don't prove that a guy drafted in the late rounds is a sure-fire loser. Only NFL performance does that.

     

    Argument #3: NFL production thus far. Taylor has significant playing time in ONE GAME. One Stinkin' Game, and a quarter or so in another. To put together a table comparing that one game with Cassel's 10 years in the league and Manuel's 14 games is the act of a guy who simply doesn't understand statistics. You can't meaningfully compare sample sizes that different. It's not appropriate.

     

    Bottom line: is it likely that Taylor will become the starter of our dreams? No, the probabilities are against it and the Bills know it - that's why Cassel and Manuel are also here. But does anything in that article rule it out? No. No it does not. The only thing that rules it in (or out) is how he plays, and that's TBD.

     

    I personally favor exactly what the Bills have done - give EJ a chance, bring in the best vet they could, and bring in their best choice as either a draftee or a 2nd tier FA (guys who have no significant playing time in the NFL but might have promise). We're all crossing our fingers that one of the three pans out, but I think Cassel gives us a "servicable" floor.

    Excellent review, thanks.

    Chris Williams also not attending workouts at OBD

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    It could be due to his back injury . If Torrell Troup is any indication of how Williams career could go he won't be around long !

     

    The only thing that stinks about it is the dead money the Bills will be on the hook for & the draft pick lost to bring him here in the first place .

     

    His playing history should have been more looked into before the decision was made to bring him here . I wonder who had the last say of the matter ?

    I have posted that I thought CW would make a great recovery due to the extended down time for recovery and play well. Unfortunately, I have been over zealous and overly hopeful when it comes to Bills players rebounding or actually meeting their expected potential. Which brings me to your question of who had the last say in the matter?

     

    Has to be Whaley, right? He can't always hit em out of the park.

    Something in the Water in San Fran?

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    Davis needed a year off to heal body and mind. Returning unearned portion of signing bonus with intent to return in a year or two. Will be 27ish. Good move. When he returns IF he is in shape he will have value. And I could not be happier to see the niners fail. Remember this?

     

    Plummer's third-quarter blast on running back Darick Holmes set up Lee Woodall's 96-yard fumble return for a touchdown and allowed the 49ers to rock Buffalo, 27-17, in Candlestick Park before 65,568.

    "That's the hit of the year," 49er linebacker Ken Norton said. "That's one of those kinds of hits you can hear. I mean, standing on the field near the play, you could even feel it. And it turned the whole game around.

    Buffalo (8-5), poised to break a 10-10 tie in the third quarter, had the ball on the San Francisco one-yard line with first and goal. Quarterback Jim Kelly handed the ball to Holmes, who had been inserted in the second half to replace an injured Thurman Thomas (leg cramps), and Holmes aimed for the end zone. Hated them ever since!!!!

    Forget the stat line. Who looked better EJ or TT?

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    Complete game. 2009 Virginia Tech – Nebraska - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3TBYKjSbU The Virginia Tech Hokies and QB Tyrod Taylor pull out an improbable 16-15 win with a late TD score against Ndamukong Suh and Nebraska.

     

    Not a huge endorsement for TT but it was 2009. Last drive down 5 with a minute and a half and no time outs. Came away with win. Budding superstar. Now fast forward 6 years and . . . . story yet to be written.

    The press speculates on EJ's future

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    raises hand... I didn't have an issue with the pick. They needed a qb in a limited qb draft. Imo (and theirs) he was the best available. He was a project for sure, but I didn't have an issue with that either given who else was available that year.

     

    Not giving him a QB coach and having him develop under a rookie OC and rookie HC and no vet qb on the roster to learn from - now that I had an issue with!

    I stand corrected. You had to have been surprised by the pick. Yolo tell me honestly you considered the Bills drafting EJ prior to the draft and I'll believe it. But there is no way you thought he would be taken in the first round. That is still mind boggling.

    EJ Manuel's film session games 1-4

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

     

    So EJ Manuel's head coach was so bad he only had one good move, and that move was to bench EJ Manuel? Seems logical.

     

    BTW, in his rookie season EJ Manuel had the Atlanta Falcons on the ropes twice before Stevie Johnson and Scott Chandler fumbled the game and the season's hopes away. Manuel looked like a real NFL franchise QB in the fourth quarter and OT of that game.

    I'll give you that. Thanks

    I'll give you that. Thanks

    for the the reminder.

    The press speculates on EJ's future

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    I don't know why you (a) think I'm grasping onto anything or (b) are now changing the narrative.

     

    YOU asked for anyone to show you an example of the kid playing well. I obliged.

     

    I also think that you're going way beyond reason by claiming he was as lousy as you seem to believe in virtually every other game.

     

    The book on EJ isn't yet completely written, but the chapters we have so far read like this IMO:

     

    Has played well at times, has played extremely poorly at times, and has been everywhere in between.

     

    Not consistent enough, and still has issues with trusting what he sees as well as with lower-body mechanics.

     

    He needs to improve in a hurry if he wants to make good on what's likely his last chance in Buffalo.

    Well, I did ask. Thanks for your answer. And I will agree with your assessment. Well said. For the record I don't think there was anyone in all of Bills Nation that didn't question the draft pick and and hasn't questioned it ever since.

    The press speculates on EJ's future

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    Nothing is worse than the use of "basically" to support or make an argument. It means one of two things: the argument you are making is flimsy or you're unwilling to provide the evidence (likely because you know it won't support your platform). FSU had nine players draft in 2013 and 5 in the first 42 picks. I think most would argue it's not "basically" the same team. I'm not actually against the argument that after he left, FSU was better. But I think your argument is flimsy, and the reality is that Winston, who is a POS human being so far, was a better QB. Does that mean EJ sucks? Not really, it means relative to JW, he wasn't as good. Or put another way, if they were in the same draft with the same college records and accolades, Winston goes before Manuel.

     

    Aside from that, I'd love nothing more than EJ to turn it around. But if he doesn't. so be it. I won't call him a loser. In the real world, many people rise to a position and fail. You go from a staffer, to a project manager, to a department head to a vice president and get fired. Why? At some point everyone peaks. Not everyone is destined to be a CEO, some people are excellent project managers. Same with QBs, not everyone is destined to be an NFL start, some are just excellent college QBs.

    Basically, you are right.

    Wait, really?

     

    His best game as a pro came against the Jets as a rookie. He was very good in that game, going 20-28 for 250 yards (that's a YPA of nearly 9) and 2 TDs.

     

    He also played efficient in wins against Carolina and Jacksonville as a rookie, as well as the first two games of 2014.

     

    If you don't think EJ can be a franchise guy, fine; there's plenty of fodder to support that stance. Let's not jump the shark by going to extremes that are well beyond reason.

    I guess grasping onto EJ looking good against a bad Jets team can give you hope. It does nothing for me and I will be pulling for him if he starts as I want wins like al of us. I just don't think he will be the QB to do it.

    The press speculates on EJ's future

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    Haha. 4-0 in bowl games = loser? There is nothing better than some fan calling a millionaire 25 year old a "loser." But I'm sure you've accomplished a lot more in your field than EJ. Look in the mirror before you call someone a loser.

     

    FYI, he smoked our current head coach at the Ralph.

    Loser in terms or winning and losing. Record speaks for itself. Also, bowl games, really. He leaves FSU and they win national championship. Basically same team minus EJ. Simple math.

    You're out of touch with any semblance of reality.

    Perhaps, time will tell and nothing would make me happier than eating crow and EJ playing well. Just don't see it happening. I will be first to admit i am wrong when I am.

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