P51
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On 11/18/2017 at 2:11 PM, Buffalo30 said:
Missing a few offensive lineman. They are difficult to mock sometimes because college football doesn't exactly highlight those types of guys. They highlight the flashy picks. I expect about 2 maybe 3 more offensive lineman in that second round consideration. Hernandez could easily jump into the first round as he looks like a beast of a guard. I'm just missing some interior lineman...Billy Price Ohio State, maybe Mason Cole, Braden Smith, maybe Cody O'Connell. The big fellas always seem to have a run somewhere in the second round every year.
I'm missing Tegray Scales LB Indiana (I love him as a Bills pick as a fast linebacker who has been extremely productive in his 4 years of experience at the college level). I believe Bradley Chubb has the chance with a very good combine and interview process to jump into the top 5 and potentially a dark horse for one of the top picks...he has dominated college football this year. I'm also missing Harrison Phillips DT Stanford. He's been one of the most productive dlineman in the class. In my opinion, their will be a few more pass rushers taken as well.
I have a hard time with the amount of QBs that are drafted in the first two rounds here. While teams like Washington may lose a QB, another QB needy team will fill that hole with Cousins. The QB free agent market is interesting this year. I believe some of the QBs in the draft will slip into the 3rd and 4th rounds.
As for the Bills picks, I am a fan of Allen at QB but a solid process for him could easily thrust him up the boards. He has some physical abilities that will make some coaches drool. Love Roquan Smith but I'm not sure if this regime will like the fit Alabama front 7 players have in this defense...who knows.
Bold move calling the trades. With many options at QB this year and as of right now none of them really standing out, it will be interesting if teams would be willing to trade up for one guy in particular.
I expect a few more guys from smaller schools that nail the draft process and senior bowl to be drafted here.
Who knows honestly though, drafting for one team is hard enough haha. I appreciate the effort and attention to team needs. Well done
Thanks for the response, I agree with much of what you said, Ill try to elaborate and incorporate some of my thoughts into response, bear with me... This is how I view all this stuff and the prospects at this point.
The 8 OL I have going in the first 2 rounds are the 8 I think at this point could be 1st rounders, Price is a 2nd round guy IMO and as many runs on OL as there have been in the 2nd round there are lots of times 2nd rounders fall into the 3rd and 4th rounds, as happened here. I think this OL class in general only has one top level guy in Nelson form ND, but he is a G and the best of the rest of the OL prospects IMO are quality Mid to Late 1st rounders potentially, I think their is quality OL depth that will be quality NFL players, but I dont see All-Pro/elite potential if you will. I like Hernandez a lot, a guy I am friends with her who coaches at the collegiate level speaks highly of him, more so than any OL they have played. He reminds me of Larry Warford coming out of Kentucky. My concerns from what I have seen are his foot speed, lateral quickness/agility and ability to hit moving targets (basically pull blocking and zone blocking), he is a pocket anchor, has strong hands and plays through the whistle. There is a lot to like, I could see him gaining on Nelson and ending up in the 1st round. The Bills clearly need a right side (Mills makes well oiled turnstiles jealous) of the offensive line and Wood and Incognito certainly are getting long in the tooth, they could easily add a couple guys in this draft, the value need in this mock just didnt work out.
Scales is guy I like a lot myself, not sold on athleticism yet for him, but if its there he could go in round 1 or 2 for sure, the process will be important for him, his on field production is there, I kept trying to fit him in but it didnt happen. When I do these mocks I take in a ton of factors for all 32 teams; salary cap, depth chart, recent drafts, contracts, schemes, etc. and sometimes guys fall. I like the depth of this draft at ILB and off the ball 43 LB's in general, again not much elite level talent, but good quality players and lots to choose from. The Bills IMO have a combination of old, slow and athletically challenged LB's and need 3 new ones. IMO Alexander should not be on the field as a starter, ST/Backup/DPR is his role now, he should not be on the field covering anyone anymore. Brown is a 2 down ILB and is a liability in coverage, and Humber is a solid back up, starter? Nah. I dont see a true 3 down LB on the roster, and a minimum of 2 are needed IMO, this draft reflected that and I thought added a quality WLB in Smith who can play the Davis or Thompson role in the Panthers D, that I believe McD wants to install here, and Evans who can play the Kuechly or Davis role here for this D. Both guys can hang in nickel and other sub packages while also playing run D, what we have now can not do both.
As for Bradley Chubb, I agree he has dominated college, I am not sure he's elite level NFL material (athletically), really the only 2 guys I think at this point project to be elite level players are Barkley and Nelson, a RB and G... James, Fitzpatrick, Chubb, Key are in the next really good level and maybe Rosen, Darnold and Finley at QB as well, but after that? seems like a big cluster right now. I think this draft is hurting for passrushers (edge types), Key is the only one who when healthy could be elite, the rest are good or ok, but I dont think the group is particularly deep myself, I kept trying to force guys like Armstrong and Ejiofor but there is not enough for me to hang my hat on for many of these edge guys this high. Im sure some will move up I just dont see who right now. I was at the high school game where Josh Sweat tore up his knee, and I have not seen the same athletic freak since, he could still be good, he was one of the best I had ever seen, I hope the injury is not hampering him like I believe it is. Buffalo certainly needs to upgrade the front 4, no doubt in my mind, but again need and value didnt line up in this mock. Phillips I need to focus more on, just havent yet. In regards to Payne from Alabama, I try to avoid the "school" correlations and look for NFL translations, and Payne IMO is a 34 or 43 type DT, he is what the DL needs at DT IMO to help stop the run, keep the LB's clean and running, while being able to push/collapse the pocket enough as well.
The veteran QB market will be interesting, I used Cousins going to Denver, Eli to Jacksonville and A. Smith coming to Buffalo as off season moves in this mock, but with Eli and Smith being close to the end of their careers, I think teams are starting to get more pro active about their future QB situations, similarly to KC and Chicago last year and use assets to get QB's on the roster to develop, IMO its a very smart idea given the deficiences of these QB's coming out of college and giving them some developmental time. If you dont have or are not developing a QB nowadays I firmly believe you will lose more than you will win now and into the future. As for this draft class, I see Rosen at the top and Darnold as the one the NFL will have #1, personally I think Darnold comes out only if Cleveland does a pre-draft trade or someone like the Giants have the first pick, which the former of which is what I used in this mock. Darnold should stay, but will he? IDK, I always find it interesting how people dont/cant see the context surrounding a player and make judgments based on factors outside of ones control. Finley (who I am a big fan of) is a translatable guy from college to the NFL as is Thorson at this point (long way to go) IMO, Rudolph (not a big fan, but I understand), Jackson, Allen, Ferguson and Faulk are all more projections with potential and bust types as I see them at this time, Im sure some will fall, but this IMO is another quality group that is pretty deep throughout, at the top? Whats your flavor? Deep doesnt always mean top heavy w/elite talent, this class IMO is developmentally talented. The process should week some of these guys out, but I could see any of these 10 QB's ending up in the first round, or any of them dropping outside of Rosen and Darnold. The Bills I think are going to come out of this draft with a QB early, whether it be a package trade up, or they get one at their natural pick (Id bet will be much higher a pick than #20), Allen seems like a guy they would like IMO.
I think trades are going to happen as people develop preferences and other factors play out. The Giants, Browns, 49ers and Jets all have history in draft trades like these, and Im pretty sure its with these current administrations. Last year I got roasted a little on this site for similar trades up for Watson (Houston to 10?) and Tru (Cleveland to 2), with Mahommes going to Arizona at 13, they happen and they seem to be happening a lot more frequently the last 10 years or so, no QB, no chance... There will be lots of options IMO between FA, trades and the draft (trades included), that its really hard to project, its going to a fun off season.
I havent gotten much into the small school prospects at this time, but I agree as the process goes on more will filter in and the senior bowl is always big for late risers, and I have a long "watch" list that I still need to look into...
I appreciate it, there is a really good base of draftniks on this site, im interested to see some of the other opinions as things start shaking out!
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38 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Is that Barwin rushing at the top of the screen? I think he needs to take a more direct path and get into the throwing lane...
That is Barwin, but he is rushing from the wide 9, Vinny Curry who is rushing from the DT position is in the throwing lane but falls and cant get his hands up in the passing lane. Barwin's rushing lane would allow him to deflect a pass in the flat or an out, anything outside the numbers. Currys rush lane and that particular passing lane correspond given the offensive and defensive assignments that I see.
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11 hours ago, matter2003 said:
Cover 1: Man to man with the corners and strong safety with the free safety plahying "centerfield" in the middle. Corners align with an outside shade meaning they align on the outside shoulder of the WR and try and force them to the inside by taking away the sideline. That's called playing with "leverage" and why you hear the color commentators who were ex-players talking about how "You just CAN'T let your man get inside/outside you in that defense...you HAVE to maintain your leverage!"
Usually when blitzing the LB or S in cover 1, teams play inside leverage to force the receivers outside, making the throw harder (usually), to also use the sidelines to their advantage and to protect this open space created by the blitzer in the middle of the field. Free inside releases can kill this coverage, hence the commentators killing corners usually who miss align at the snap no understanding the other defenders responsibilities. Teams will also play inside leverage to force vertical routes into the sidelines and good corners will squeeze the WR into the sidelines limits the margin of error defensively and forces perfect passes offensively/vertically, in this coverage.
Cover 3: A zone concept where both outside corners and the free safety each take a deep 1/3 of the field. The strong safety has the flat/curl responsibility on the strong side and the Will LB has the flat/curl responsibility on the weak side with the MLB having the middle 1/3 of the short zone.
Seattle version has 2 LB's covering the inside quarters with the WLB and SS covering the outside quarter respectively, won them a SB IMO, its is a 4-2-5 defense concept, with 43 personnel (WLB is essentially a big S, with ILB/SLB being WLB/S hybrid types). Speed and recognition kill in this D.
Cover 5(sometimes called "Palms" or "Cathy"): Is a non-traditional defense that is typically a form of cover-2 but is really more scheme defined than anything...sometimes it is a base Tampa-2, other times it is a cover-2 pattern read, and still other times its cover-2 man. "Palms" coverage is many times based off a read on the #2 WR and what route he runs...if he runs vertical, the CB plays WR #1, if he runs a flat/curl route the CB comes off WR #2 and the safety picks up WR #1. Then the SAM LB typically splits the middle of those two players...But again, this is NOT always what it means, just a common form of it.
Basically the secondary and LB's read the WR's not the QB and make in play adjustments. This is tough to coach and execute, poor execution results in huge plays more often than not. Its big in college and HS teams that like to run 4-2-5 defenses with 3 S's. Communication and recognition are key, experience is huge.
To piggy back on some of this (in bold), overall I thought it was a quality post, along with several others in this thread.
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Constructive criticism and intelligent conversation appreciated, based on my very informal rankings at this point, based off last weeks draft order, subject to change...
2018 NFL Mock Draft
V 1.2
1st Round
*Pre-Draft Trade* Cleveland trades the 1st overall pick and the 136th picks in the 2018 draft to the N.Y. Giants for the 3rd and 35th picks in the 2018 draft, and the Giants 1st and 4th round picks in 2019.
*Pre-Draft Trade* San Francisco trades the 2nd overall pick to Cleveland for the 3rd, 65th and 120th picks in the 2018 draft and the Giants 4th round pick in 2019.
1 – N.Y. Giants (via. Cleveland) – Sam Darnold (QB – U.S.C.)
2 – Cleveland (via. S.F.) – Josh Rosen (QB – UCLA)
3 – San Francisco (via. Cleveland/N.Y.G.) – Saquan Barkley (RB – Penn. St.)
*Trade* Indianapolis trades the 4th pick the N.Y. Jets for the 11th, 43rd and 75th picks in the 2018 draft.
4 – N.Y. Jets (via. Indianapolis) – Ryan Finley (QB – N.C. St.)
5 – Cincinnati – Derwin James (S/CB – F.S.U.)
6 – Denver – Connor Williams (LT/T – Texas)
7 – L.A. Chargers – Lamar Jackson (QB – Louisville)
8 – Cleveland (via. Houston) – Minkah Fitzpatrick (CB/S – Alabama)
9 – Chicago – Bradley Chubb (DE – N.C. St.)
10 – Tampa Bay – Arden Key (DE/OLB/DPR – L.S.U.)
11 – Indianapolis (via. N.Y. Jets) – Quenton Nelson (G – Notre Dame)
12 – Baltimore – James Washington (WR – Ok. St.)
13 – Arizona – Mason Rudolph (QB – Ok. St.)
14 – Oakland – Maurice Hurst (DT – Michigan)
15 – Washington – Baker Mayfield (QB – Oklahoma)
16 – Miami – Harold Landry (OLB/DPR – B.C.)
17 – Dallas – Christian Wilkins (DT – Clemson)
18 – Detroit – Darrius Guice (RB – L.S.U.)
19 – Green Bay – Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (OLB – Oklahoma)
20 – Atlanta – Mike McGlinchey (LT/RT – Notre Dame)
21 – Buffalo – Josh Allen (QB – Wyoming)
22 – Jacksonville – Clayton Thorson (QB – Northwestern)
23 – Seattle – Josh Jackson (CB – Iowa)
24 – Carolina – Orlando Brown (T – Oklahoma)
25 – Tennessee – Clelin Ferrell (DE – Clemson)
26 – Buffalo (via. K.C.) – Roquan Smith (WLB – Georgia)
27 – L.A. Rams – Chukwama Okorafor (LT – Western Michigan)
28 – Minnesota – Ronnie Harrison (SS – Alabama)
29 – Pittsburgh – Denzel Ward (CB – O.S.U.)
30 – New Orleans – Courtland Sutton (WR – S.M.U.)
31 – New England – Trey Adams (LT – Washington)
32 – Philadelphia – Michael Gallup (WR – Colorado St.)
2nd Round
33 – Cleveland – Tarvarus McFadden (CB – F.S.U.)
34 – New England (via. S.F.) – Luke Faulk (QB – Wash. St.)
35 – Cleveland (via. N.Y. Giants) – Martinas Rankin (LT/T – Miss. St.)
36 – Indianapolis – Mark Andrews (TE – Oklahoma)
37 – Denver – Deon Cain (WR – Clemson)
38 – Los Angeles Chargers – Malik Jefferson (ILB/LB – Texas)
39 – Cleveland (via. Houston) – Calvin Ridley (WR – Alabama)
40 – Chicago – Isaiah Oliver (CB – Colorado)
41 – Tampa Bay – Keith Tolliver II (CB – L.S.U.)
42 – Cincinnati – Brain O’Neil (LT/T – Pitt.)
43 – Indianapolis (via . N.Y. Jets) – Rashaad Penny (RB – S.D. St.)
44 – Arizona – Equanimeous St. Brown (WR – Notre Dame)
45 – Oakland – Ronald Jones II (RB – U.S.C.)
46 – Washington – Simmie Cobbs Jr. (WR – Indiana)
47 – Miami – Will Hernandez (G – U.T.E.P)
48 – Baltimore – Damien Harris (RB – Alabama)
49 – Detroit – Dre’Mont Jones (DT – O.S.U.)
50 – Green Bay – Christian Kirk (WR – Texas A&M)
51 – Atlanta – Jordan Whitehead (FS/S – Pitt.)
52 – Dallas – Anthony Miller (WR – Memphis)
53 – Buffalo – Rashaan Evans (ILB/OLB – Alabama)
54 – N.Y. Jets (via. Seattle) – Bryce Love (RB – Stanford)
55 – Jacksonville – Mike Gesicki (TE – Penn. St.)
56 – Carolina – Austin Bryant (DE – Clemson)
57 – Kansas City – Carlton Davis (CB – Auburn)
58 – Tennessee – Justin Reid (FS – Stanford)
59 – Minnesota – Derrick Nnadi (DT – F.S.U.)
60 – Buffalo (via. L.A. Rams) – Da’Ron Payne (DT – Alabama)
61 – San Francisco (via. N.O.) – Arden Tate (WR – F.S.U.)
62 – Pittsburgh – Riley Ferguson (QB – Memphis)
63 – New England – Sam Hubbard (DE – O.S.U.)
64 – Cleveland (via. Philadelphia) – Josh Adams (RB – Notre Dame)
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2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:
Can't look at catches without looking at targets. Watkins is still the " new guy" and had zero practice time with Goff before August. Yes, SW was traded for as a #1. You still have to look at what the Rams are asking him to do within the offense. Watch the Rams games and decide if he's getting open or not.
Fantastic post ??
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9 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:
Well to answer your question, Watkins isn't elite IMO so that kinda narrows that down.
Im guessing that Hopkins is IYO? If so what makes him elite?
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Just now, Royale with Cheese said:
I'm just going to guess player A is Watkins and player B is Hopkins?
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1 hour ago, teef said:
so what if he's double teamed? you think he's so elite...should't he still be showing some numbers? i don't think i've once seen anyone call him a scrub on here. his problem is he was a me first player, (as he even admitted) and even then his value wasn't there. you know who's worth the money? productive players. sammy hasn't shown himself to be one.
what's it going to take for people to realize that letting sammy go was likely a wise decision? will have have to be non-productive on his third team for people to actually clue in?
Serious question: Does the inequality of opportunity play a role in producing stats?
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52 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:
No one said he’s a scrub...you’re just being dramatic. Saying someone isn’t elite doesn’t mean they are saying he’s a scrub.
DeAndre Hopkins caught 111 balls with Hoyer and Mallett throwing to him 2 years ago.
78 with Brock Osweiler and Tom Savage last year.
Thats being elite.
No names just context, who is more elite;
Player A with a 63% reception per target rate, 11 yards per target, 17.5 yards per reception, 9% TD per target rate, 15% TD per reception rate, 68% 1st down per reception rate, 465 team passing attempts (-154 passing attempts vs. team B).
or
Player B with a 58% reception per target rate, 8 yards per target, 13.7 yards per reception, 6% TD per target rate, 10% TD per reception rate, 75% 1st down per reception rate, 619 team passing attempts (+154 passing attempts vs. team A).
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The over under on you hating him would be set at a half of a game. The things you don't like about Taylor? Cam does. The things you like about Taylor? Cam doesn't do. He's less accurate than Tyrod, throws more picks, and appears to be very immature.
The biggest reason I dont think Can has much, if any chance of coming here. I dont think they want his attitude anywhere near a position of leadership or in that type of role with this team.
Maturity and development passing this season so far are the main reasons I do think TT has a great chance at being the starting QB in Buffalo into the near future.
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He just kept throwing interceptions. Had 2 called back on one drive then threw another right afterwards.
Having watched the game and looking at the circumstances of things going on around him, I thought he actually played really well and was the reason the Skins didnt get blown out by 20+.
- They started the game minus their 3 best OL, Morgan Moses was playing on 2 bum ankles and only played because it was possible he could with their backup swing tackle also out and Street Walkers starting in place of T. Williams and getting injured and leaving the game as well, while also losing their starting LG in the 1st half, outside of Moses in the 2nd half, I dont think anyone on the oline was on the team for more than a week or less. By half time the Skins were down to a single healthy soon to be 34 year old TE. I remember commenting to someone I was watching the game that I could not recall Cousins having more than a handfull of clean pockets and time to throw...
- The Cowboys defensive lived in the Skins backfield and decimated a who's who? of Skins olinemen. Crawford, Lawrence, and Irving had 8 QB hits, 4.5 TFL's, and 4 sacks between those 3 alone.
- Talk about Rubbish: Terrelle Pryor Sr. Yikes... Josh Doctson still can jump and run straight, but can make cuts any better that a soon to be 40 yr old P51. Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson had some nice stats when the Boys were giving up underneath coverage and letting their passrush do their thing. The field goal blocked before the half with the Boys converting it into a TD and 14-13 lead was rubbish, Cousins with everything going on around him had the Skins in position to take a 16-7 lead going into the half, instead they were down 14-13 and had to pass the 2nd half. 13-5 pas-run ratio, thats rubbish given the situation.
Cousins had a bad stretch for sure, but whats a girl to do? They had to take chances and force the issue, given the context of the game situation and circumstances of the play around him, how many QB's can turn that chicken h!t$ into chicken $alad? Personally I think Cousins is an above average QB with his own issues, but that game was not lost by Cousins, I actually thought he showed alot heart and grit in that game.
On topic: Cam coming to Buffalo is not very likely to happen, I dont see McD and McB bringing him in. EDIT: I dont see him fitting the type of attitude they want leading this team, IMO Tyrod has that attitude way more so than Cam.
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He's rubbish too. Did you see the Cowboys game?
What happened in the Skins/Cowboys game that makes him rubbish?
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I'd be interested in hearing his opinion on Gilmore's positioning on that play, specifically his weird first step (at least to me) and how upright he was on the swivel, if he's still reading this thread...
Thats a good question, and it comes down to coaching and player preference IMO, his first step (hop in this situation) keeps his head on the QB, WR's and play infront of him, which IMO is fine, only the sideline is behind him. His body being parallel to the sideline is wierd and that hop step (?) is unorthodox but keeps his head and body in position to see and move accordingly as I see it. Ive never taught it that way, but it is similar to body positioning I do/have, the feet being parallel to the sideline is strange but allows him to play the outside route - in (the other CB is doing the same technique just from a different starting stance. It does allow him to break quickly from off outside coverage on any pass inside the shell they are playing.
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Seriously, it's not hard for those that don't understand Cover 2, google it. There are plenty of pictures that show how this scheme is played and where there zones are defined.
And to those saying he should have just carried on covering Hill:
First, is he just suppose to ignore a coaches call and cover man/man? Second, what happens if the LB passes his player, the slot receiver in this instance, off into Gilmores zone and he's off trying to cover Hill? Is Gilmore suppose to just assume the LB keeps covering someone in Gilmores zone? Is Gilmore suppose to know what's going in everyone else's zones while watching the QB, which is what you do in zone?
Watch Butler, he does the same exact thing Gilmore does and his vertical route is wide open too. Both Safety's bit on the vert middle route instead of getting deep.
B-I-N-G-O....
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I just have trouble believing his job was to cover an empty zone with no players within 10 yards while the burner WR runs right past him.
His job in that coverage is to watch for certain routes (out and rb flat mostly), which he does on the Hill quick out and up, and release Hill into the Safeties coverage (deep cover 2). If no one comes into his zone (which Gilmores head clearly indicates he does check) on such a play, he should drift back and help the safety underneath from a trail type concept, which he is in the process of doing as the Safety blows his coverage and Hill, one of the fastest humans on the planet (Olympic class speed) goes deep on the double move (the 1st move Gilmore covered correctly, then passed on correctly).
This is Gilmore's fault in man coverage potentially or cover 3, 4, etc. 100% not in C2, even if his zone is empty, where Hill goes and makes the play is in a area where McCourty is supposed to be, McCourty in a Tampa 2, or plain old cover 2 is the deep cover guy (Period). His eyes are forward, he is playing the outside technique correctly, he is the trail guy if McCourty misses the tackle or the ball is underthrown in this situation.
This is almost identical to the play in the 9ers (??) game last year where everyone blamed him and despite his shortcoming in coverage at times, it was not his fault then either if you look at the coverage. Sometimes it has been his fault, this is not an example of that.
The outcome here is a negative on McCourty's sheet, not Gilmores. Its really that simple.
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I'm really amazed at how few people could recognize that was cover 2? That play was a TD before the ball was snapped. I won't comment on our football intellect as some get their panties in a wad but come on guys!!
Also, Jerel Worthy's tweet was GOLD. https://twitter.com/i_am_worthy99/status/906006962411900929
I am with you and how few people recognize the responsibilities in it, the immediate post snap D is a pure Tampa 2 look, the ILB is clearly getting depth down the middle of the field, everyone in coverage is getting eyes on the QB, Gilmore actually looks to be playing his coverage right and watching the quick out and flat, releases his man deep on the double move and checks underneath to make sure no one is coming into his zone. McCourty and the other safety both blow coverage (the other vertical WR is open too) and take the middle vertical route before the ball is released, big time no-no on that coverage. I'd bet Gilmore was never taught to look at the safety for some reason see him out of position and carry Hill all the way down the field, or even cover deep prior to checking his zone like he did (most are taught to keep getting depth if their zone is not threatened).
Safeties are taught in cover 2, to never get beat deep and stay deeper than the deepest, how Gilmore is getting roasted for this is beyond me... McCourty rightfully took the heat for this.
Gilmore "did his job" from what I see.
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Yes, as I said Rivers had some phenomenal years from 2008-2010. Tyrod clearly doesn't meet the minimum requirements yet, but his ANY/A in his 2 years as a starter is 6.55, which would tie him for 14th on that list with Dan Marino (ANY/A doesn't do past QBs any justice with the way the rules have changed). He's only started 2 years, he was over 7 once, and despite last year being 'awful' he still wasn't below 6. Tyrod is nowhere near '08-'10 Rivers, but he's pretty comparable to '15-'16 Rivers, especially when you consider he's 9 years younger. Just my opinion.
I wouldn't say nobody, but probably nobody worth listening to. So neither had quality pass catchers throughout the year, and Rivers ranked 16 (6.37) vs Tyrod at 18 (6.07). And in '15 Rivers ranked 14 (6.45) vs Tyrod at 9 (7.10). Is that not 'pretty comparable'?
And FWIW, idk how much you use ANY/A, but it doesn't factor in any rushing stats.
Great point on Dan Marino, one I use regularly in the "Superbowl Champ" qualifier for HOF arguement, and I am with you on the ANY/A not doing past QB's justice. JMO, but I would add a full point to the QB's of rules past to normalize the stat myself. Personally, I dont think Tyrod is "awful", I think he's limited passing the ball, but throws a great deep ball, who obviously is a great runner.
The Tyrod 15' vs. 16' I think further illustrates the context point, in 15' with a more healthy Watkins arguably being the best receiver in the league for 9 games that year and playing for most of the season reasonably healthy helped Tyrod be a better QB to the affect of a 1+ pt ANY/A increase vs. 2016. Watkins ability to stretch the field and play into Tyrod's strengths clearly benefited Taylor IMO with regards to the ANY/A stat, as did having a great run game and competent (for the most part) offensive line.
The stat also does not include things like team rushing ranks/efficiency which in 2015 the Chargers were second to last and the Bills were first (thanks in part to Tyrod for sure), Buffalo also happened to be closer to the playoffs that year, and if my memory serves me the Chargers had the worst ranked offensive line by PFF (FWIW and Buffalos was top a top 10 unit that year according to PFF, FWIW). No offensive line and no running game is hard for any QB to overcome and put up big passing metrics. Interesting to me, in 2016 the Chargers run game moved up to 26th overall from 31st and their offensive line ranking (PFF FWIW) moved up from 32nd to 31st and he lost his top 2 receivers during the pre-season? and week 1? in Allen and Johnson. Run game and blocking improved very slightly, but passing game takes a hit when your #1 and #2 WR's go down.
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To me he has been totally hung out to dry by an incompetent organisation incapable of putting pieces around him. His offensive line has been a mess, his running game inconsistent, their defense MIA and his only genuine top flight weapon constantly injured. Drew Brees has only won more than 7 games once in 5 years - he is still elite. Talent around every quarterback not name Brady or P. Manning (not even sure I have Rodgers there to be honest Green Bay has always given him a line and weapons) matters.
I've watched plenty Phil Rivers the last two seasons. I don't even think he was bad last year..... he was forcing throws in the 4th Qrtr a lot because they were always behind (9 of his 21 INTs were in the 4th) but for the same people who make excuses about Tyrod's weapons to castigate Rivers for the Chargers only winning 5 games is incredible. His top receiver last year went into the season with TWO NFL receptions to his name. Another point worth making is that Rivers left the field with the Chargers in the lead multiple times - the defense couldn't top anyone... and that is without mentioning the game against the Raiders where Rivers led them down the field for a game tying chip shot FG as time expired only for the special teams to bungle it and fumble the snap.
Not even close for me. Rivers is still a top 6 or 7 Quarterback.
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BIll, this and the following are fantastic posts! Adding context to the situation that most simply lack, if I had the time to go back and find similar ones I had regarding this topic in a similar thread I would. I did a little analysis then and showed how Eli and Big Ben are HOF'ers yet Rivers career stats were better or similar in many key categories. Rivers has not had the benefit of things like a quality organization around him or a oline coach who can turn water into wine (http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/01/new-england-patriots-offensive-line-coach-dante-scarnecchia-super-bowl-51-nfl), but hey Brady can do it on his own... Rivers is still an top flight QB IMO as well, with next to no chance he ever comes here, the Bills would be instant contenders and with the offensive firepower now, his record would resemble those of the pre-2010 Chargers many here keep documenting. While just a dream, Rivers throwing to Sammy (hopefully healthy) and company would be a dream come true for me as a fan, open receivers being seen and accurately thrown too, the middle of the field being utilized, an modern passing game with the running game to support it... Oh my... While its not going to happen and Rivers will in all likely hood retire in SoCal, I have a hard time believing Rivers to Buffalo would be anything short of a miracle upgrade at QB even if only for a short while.
He has been on some bad teams since 2010. If you put Rivers on this team we are a playoff team. No question about it in my mind. The Bills are way more talented than the Chargers. I might take maybe 4 of their guys on defense and possibly 2 on offense (aside from Rivers) over ours. If people want reasons why the Chargers haven't been good there are lots and lots of them. I challenge anyone to go back and watch their tape from the last 2 years and say one of those reasons is Rivers. He remains the best thing about that team (though I'll give Bosa his props... he is 2nd).
I can't imagine a single non-Bills fan who has looked at the tape would want Tyrod over Rivers.
Agreed again.
I understand and respect your position, I just disagree based on the players right now. Everyone's got their stat, I personally really like ANY/A for QB performance. Generally speaking, if over the course of a season your ANY/A is 7 or higher it was a really good year. In Rivers' 11 years starting, he's broken the 7.0 mark 4 times (over 8.0 twice!). Unfortunately, he's only done it once since 2010. Tyrod has been a starter for 2 years, and he broke 7 once so far. For reference I'll give you the guys who've met this mark the past 2 years.
2016:
Matt Ryan
Tom Brady
Dak Prescott
Kirk Cousins
Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers
Derek Carr
Marcus Mariota
2015:
Carson Palmer
Andy Dalton
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Cam Newton
Ben Roethlisberger
Kirk Cousins
Tyrod Taylor
Yet he is 9th all time career wise ahead of multiple superbowl champs and hall of famers. He has only fallen under 6 once in his career as a starter.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_adj_net_yds_per_att_career.htm
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Excellent starting take. Nothing I would disagree with at this point. Looking at the list at LB makes me a little bit nauseous though.
I feel the same way about the LB's/depth as I do about the Safety's/Depth, scary if one goes down.
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As much as I wish they kept Roby as the dime back (Good depth and role player in my opinion) the fact that they let him go when he was on a modest contract shows just how much they liked what they had in Seymour. The coaching staff has a lot of confidence in Seymour and to me when you are a new coaching staff and you are high on a player drafted low from a previous administration it must mean your confidence in him is very legitimate.
Great post, I agree and am looking forward to seeing how he develops this year. White, Darby and Seymour should be a good group moving forward in the secondary at corner and I think they have showed (in college and/or the pro's) to be capable of being interchangeable inside and out, and that kind of diversity is rare.
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I feel the exact opposite. Shaq is a 4-3 DE to me. He's not explosive enough to be a rush edge in the 3-4 and is too small to play DE. That's part of the reason that I thought the pick was odd. He seemed like good value at the time but was an odd scheme fit to me. He should be a pretty well-rounded DE that is solid against the run and contributes about 7 sacks.
I feel the same way for the most part, although I did think he did enough at Clemson to show that he could play in a 3-4 front at OLB in some capacity as a SAM backer. I think he fits a traditional 43 role more myself, can use his strength and hands more to his advantage and generate pressure through his technique and effort, complimenting his run stopping ability.
I was not very impressed watching him last year and hopefully he will improve in year 2 minus the off season surgery. I was surprised there were not many comparisons to him and Derek Barnett this year, Barnett's hands are quicker and he is slightly better as a pass rusher, but IMO they are very similar overall physically and skill set wise.
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I'm not Bandit, but I did this analysis in another Sammy Thread
Bandito you are not, quality work non the less, thank you for re-posting
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He will get extended for sure with a breakout season, I think he will put up 1400 yards and 10 TD's this year. Hope I am right. Julio Jones got past the same foot injury and put up similiar numbers his first 3 seasons, and that is with Matt Ryan consistantly throwing to him. I know Sammy is not Julio but just saying.
Sammy has the ability to be every bit as good IMO, #TMobileAintNoMattyICE.
I do find it interesting that their injury history has some similarities regarding the foot and hope Sammy comes out of the 2nd surgery with the same outcome physically as Julio.
@smolaDS
In Rick Dennison's last 4 seasons as OC, his top WR has seen the following target shares:
29.8%
28.6%
29.2%
25.3%
#Bills #SammyWatkins
#FeedSammy #Winning
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On Cinco de Mayo, they couldn't put him in a sombrero and "It starts with Juan"?
LOL, funniest thing Ive heard all day, gracias mi amigo!!
Football Fundamental Series-Part I: Defense Cover 0
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Wide 9 refers to the DE split being even farther outside the tackle than the 5 technique (outside shoulder) in a pass rushing stance (can be 2 pt, 3 pt or a 4 pt stance, Mario and Jerry usually 3 pt under Schwartz). If there is no TE, the alignment in a wide 9 for the DE/DPR is where the TE would be and the DE/DPR aligns at that distance outside the Tackles shoulder as if a TE were there.
The Wide 9 is a defense line alignment, it can be run independent of the offensive formation and/or personnel. It can be run against 5,6,7 man lines, the bone, doesnt matter. It can also be run to one side of the field or the other, the open, closed or both sides of the field.
Barwins split is hard to tell there, but I would have to imagine with Palmer in the backfield, 5 wide outs, and his body angle, it is a wide 9 alignment or a really wide 5. IMO looking at that his assignment is to get to Palmer on a 5 or 7 step drop and he is not worried about anything else.