TPS
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A few thoughts about this game.
Ravens:
- This is probably the most talented Ravens team since Jackson has been QB. The only question mark is the new kicker.
- Jackson will be highly motivated to make amends after last year's playoff loss.
Bills:
- Home field advantage helps, and the Bills O will need it against this D.
- I'm sure Phillips will be elevated for this game, so there aren't two rookie in the second DL wave.
- The Bills' secondary is the big question mark in this game. Would they also elevate the experienced Poyer for this game?
I see another dogfight coming down to the last few minutes. Whoever makes the fewest mistakes wins.
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1 hour ago, appoo said:
I'm sorry! I was trying to agree with you, and then expand on the thoughts you posted. Should have been clearer on that my bad for the confusion
No worries. I appreciate your effort to try to put some facts toward the other poster's hot air! 😄
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1 minute ago, appoo said:
It's lottery. if you expect more 1 - 7 rounders to wash out, with the percentage going up each round, you're probably not far off.
For example this is the 1st round in 2021
1. Lawrence - 2nd contract
2. Wilson - bust
3. Lance - bust
4. Pitts - didn't get an extension yet
5. Chase - HOF
6. Waddle - 2nd contract
7. Sewell - HOF
8. Horn - 2nd contract
9. Surtain - HOF
10. DeVonta Smith - 2nd contract
11. Fields - eh
12. Micah - HOF
13. Slater - 2nd contract
14. Vera-Tucker - 2nd contract
15. Mac Jones - bust
16. Zavien Collins - didn't get a legit 1st round extension, just a 2 year 14M
17. Alex LEatherwood - bust
18. Jaelen Phillips - 2nd contract
19. Jamin Davis - out of football right now
20. Kadarius Toney - bust
21. Kwity Paye - good player, still waitng his contract extension
22. Caleb Farley - bust
23. Christian Darrisaw - 2nd contract
24. Nahee Harris - semi bust
25. Travis Etienne - about to lose his job as a starter
26. Greg Newsom - flirting with turning into a journeyman, didn't earn 2nd round contract yet
27. Bateman - 2nd conract
28. Payton Turney - Bust
29. Eric Stokes - Bust
30. Groot - 2nd contract
31. Odafe Oweh - Decent, didn't earn 2nd contract yet
32. Joe Tryon - Bust
So 12% got to elite31% got to a 2nd contract
31% busted.
25% are still in TBD
Top 10 : 30% HOF trajectory, 40% solid, 20% bust, 10% TBD
11 - 20 : 10% HOF, 30% solid, 40% bust, 20% TBD
21 - 32 : 0% HOF, 25% solid, 33% bust, 42% TBDThanks, I understand, but I'm not so sure the poster I responded to does?
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6 minutes ago, Trust The Process said:
Including Elam, Brandon Beane wasted a subtotal of 7 premium draft picks in the past 7 seasons from 2018 to 2024.
Kincaid, Coleman, Bishop, and Carter remains to be seen, but at the moment it's not looking good for Bishop and Carter more so.
2nd rounders wasted
Basham
Epenesa3rd rounders wasted:
Moss
SingletaryCooper (Trade)
Douglas (Trade)
Can you define what you mean by wasted? At the very least, you need to state who Beane should've picked instead and why? I don't think anyone will argue about Basham, but the rest of your list is questionable.
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14 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:
The one technique in Sean's defense is not like a traditional zero technique plug in a 34
If you're going to line up in a four defensive front rotation you need to have enough push from both your defensive tackles...
The best defensive tackles have the ability to move over the front and not just be pigeonholed to one technique
We certainly do have some run stuffers like ogunjobi... But when you sit in nickel like we do
You need penetration... Whoever's lining up at the three technique and the one technique are going to have to both push the pocket and get pressure on the quarterback
that's why even the one techniques we've drafted like Harrison Phillips are not plugs... Even your best one technique like Dexter Lawrence gets after the quarterback and collapsed pockets
Star latulae was a classic plug that we gave a lot of money to and remember how that worked? people complained daily about him here
Stopping the run is insanely taxing on your body and there's about five 1 techs that make their bread and butter only on that
There's not a list of 25 one techniques who are shutting down the run weekly for years.. it's a small list
As Michael would say in The Office, "That's what she said!"
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9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
Contract (plus late-season/playoff production) says he almost certainly IS a lock. Need to roll with him at least one more year and hope he's healthy and dynamic.
This and the fact that all last year various players and coaches said the WRs had to learn all positions because they want everyone to be able to lineup in any position. Moore also said something to this effect in his post-signing presser.
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As I watched Sanders get up from this drill, I thought, man he's a big dude! Then Walker comes into frame and makes him look small.
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25 minutes ago, Simon said:
Mack Hollins has the clutch gene.
Gabe Davis does not.
No one remembers the Colts playoff game?
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7 hours ago, Nihilarian said:
Yes, the Eagles were the exception as they built a unique team...that is now partially dismantled in free agency. Beane stated correctly when he said that by paying Josh Allen, it compromises the team in spending on those big-name, elite FA WRs. BTW, which elite WRs did you want the Bills to draft after drafting the much-needed players on defense?
The Bills might already have some elite receiver players in the form of their star TEs and new WRs. In the case of Dalton Kincade, who was mis-targeted by around 37% on passing plays over 12 yards. Kincade and Allen just weren't on the same page last year for some reason. Curtis Samuel was injured last season with a turf toe, which can linger on and on if not given proper rest. Samuel, who has run a 4.31 40 time and has had some 60 catch seasons.
So many Bills fans blame Kincade for the dropped pass last season and Bass for the missed field goal in the previous season. Yet, it has been the defense that has let this franchise down the last few years due to injuries and a lack of depth. Both Beane and McD saw the flaws in the team and attempted to fix them in the draft. This draft was weak in elite WRs while loaded with top defensive players, and Buffalo added some.
Despite not having elite WRs on the team last season, the Buffalo Bills were 2nd in the NFL in scoring and the #1 scoring team, including the playoffs. The Bills are returning with most of their offense intact and lost their 4th & 5th WRs and have already replaced them with better players.
Buffalo had Stephon Diggs, who was their elite wide receiver and led the entire NFL in one season...did they get to the SB with him?
I think it's more accurate to say it forces Beane to decide which other position(s) he should spend big on? Beane's choice has typically been to spend on an Edge rusher. In addition, he has spent a lot of cap money on the D-line in general--it's a long list of folks he's signed to one-year contracts to bolster the DL over the past several years, with mostly average performance.
This year he finally decided to make a major investment in bodies through the draft, in a draft that was loaded with talent across the line. A wise move. I think he also tried to address a weakness that was made glaring in the AFCCG, depth at CB. Benford's injury was a major reason they lost that game.
At any rate, wrt to the WR discussion, I think with this addition, the group is stronger than last year's.
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8 hours ago, NewEra said:
Haven’t watched any highlights- just listened to his interview from today. I love this guy. Dude just wants to smack people. And has an economics degree from Yale.
I still have some hope for Davidson, but I’m really rooting for Hawes.
Edit: watched a little tape. He’s our version of Alan Ricard…. Just a lot smaller. He’s not just a good blocking TE. He’s an extremely good blocker. Maybe he can play the Mack Hollins role on some of those screens 🤣 I’d bet he’ll be in the league for 5+ years as a designated blocker.
I could see Hawes taking Morris' roster spot, focused on STs, and Hawes is definitely in-line and would get playing time as a blocker. Davidson is a receiving (move) TE and played when Kincaid got hurt.
I don't know if Hawes could also take on the H-back role of Gilliam, but I think the roster decision has Davidson looking in from the outside since he's basically competing for a role that both Knox and Kincaid play. I think Davidson has a lot of potential and would hate to see him not make it, and I think he'd certainly get picked up if the Bills try to get him on the PS again.
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12 hours ago, Mister Defense said:
As I have been saying, before the draft and now, it was all about the defense, and in particular the "almost bare" outside corner situation, and the defensive line, in particular tackle. And that the Bills should get at least two high quality d tackles and at least 2 corners, but hopefully more. And that they should parlay all draft capital to make these the best players they can possibly get.
As it should be all about quality now, and about giving up the over reliance on quantity , the just hoping some work out, with an over reliance on mediocre or less than that players.
So, I am biased, as that was my opinion for over a month.
I believe this was the best and most important draft in my lifetime, and I believe it will be a seminal moment in Bills' history, one of the most consequential.
I was worried Beane would play it safe, and not put all of their eggs into the defensive basket, and not use their draft capital to consistently be aggressive. But he took a big swing. That is what one does when they are going for the gold.
A prediction: Sadly, I bet McDermott breaks his face in the next few days from smiling and laughing so much.
Bravo, Brandon.
And to the many who worked so hard to make this all come together so well.
Oliver, Carter, Rousseau, Hoecht, and Solomon are the only players (on the 53) whose contracts go beyond this year, so the Bills certainly needed to re-stock the DL; or, Beane could do his usual and patch it together with one-year vet contracts. This draft was certainly needed.
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22 hours ago, Bag of Milk said:
During the Bills phone call with Sanders after they selected him, I found it interesting that Pegula told him that the Bills had been " trying to trade up for him for like the last 20 picks"
Don't know if I'd call that interesting, it was very odd. I mean, their first pick was at 30 and they took Hairston, so they were trying to get him before they got Hairston. Just a weird comment.
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Irrelevant anecdote: UConn trounced UB this year too, and UB had a good year.
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1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:
Brady likes his TEs, he might not get much PT but will fill right in for Morris...
Hey with a legit SB caliber team, I love these type of picks, Morris played a role, Bills hopefully just upgraded that role and added a weapon
Could he also take over Gilliam's H-back role?
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On 4/9/2025 at 4:42 PM, TPS said:
Yay! Do I win something? 😄
As I wrote after that pick, I was not happy with either of the last two picks. CJ West was my other option, but Broughton seemed to have more pass rush potential; but I'm a novice here. I was really hamstrung by the no trade aspect. I was hoping Norman Lott would fall to 70; then I was hoping Walker would fall to 88. I ended up in both selections picking someone I had very little familiarity with, but I was trying to take care of their "needs".
As I mentioned, I think their optimal decision is to make some trades to meet their needs. If Hunter and Graham are gone like in the scenario that happened here, then move back into a zone where they can take one of a handful of edge rushers in the mid-first, and with the extra second they can get both a CB and DT, both in the top 50 picks. Alternatively, if one of those two are available, then grab one, and use their 2 third rounders to move back into the top 50.
What I've discovered in this exercise is they are in an excellent situation to have a great draft, and I will be paying attention to what they actually do.
I always like to see how i did relative to the real thing. I was no where close to what Jax did, but who saw that coming? 1.0 was a no-trade mock, but as I stated here, I think they could've had one of the better drafts by trading back and picking up an Edge. Instead, they basically threw the kitchen sink at getting Hunter...
My picks relative to where they were actually selected:
R1 Walker, Edge 5 vs 15 I fully expected to pick Graham here, but the punky Pats selected him at 4 in this mock.
R2 Hairston, CB 35 vs 30 I was very happy to see the Bills get Hairston.
R3 Trapillo, OT 70 vs 56
R3 Broughton, DT 88 vs 71
I think both of my R3 picks were actually selected earlier than how it played out here based on this draft being so focused on the trenches. Interestingly, that's what I stated about both of these picks, I felt "forced" to pick them early based on need. Little did I know, neither one was picked too early.
I am no draft expert, but I feel pretty good about my results here.
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9 hours ago, Virgil said:
Joshua Farmer, DT, Florida St
Cam Scattebo, RB, Arizona St
Chimere *****, WR, Florida St
RJ Mickens, S, Clemson
Shaun Dolac, LB, Buffalo
Kyle McCord, QB, Syracuse
James Burnip, P, Alabama
ESPN has Farmer as the #4 best remaining. If the Bills really like and want him, I can see Beane trading one of the 5ths and the first 6th to move up near the top of R4 to grab him. At any rate, I think Beane moves up for a player they have graded as an R3.
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1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:
This kid is going to be great imo. I was at the Alabama vs. Arkansas in 2023 and Jasckson was unstoppable. I have no idea how or why he lasted this long. I would have been perfectly happy if we took him in the second round, if not round one.
Check out these game stats......
https://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore/_/gameId/401520316
I was just looking at the TSW 1.0 mock, and now I understand why you were so high on him and took him in R1.
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@gonzo1105 I thought they met with DT Farmer, no?
Thanks for putting the list together.
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3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Fair.
It's still a reach by a round IMO... but yea he did rise up some boards. I take it all back.
Pass rushing DTs have been a hot pick in this draft.
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Just now, GunnerBill said:
You took him 2nd round though, right?
Third, pick 88
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Vernon Broughton at pick 71, @GunnerBill I feel vindicated!!! 😄
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9 DTs picked in the first two rounds.
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54 picks in and Amos still on the board.
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2 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:
#59 and #109 get us up to 46ish so I’ll be kickin it until then.
56? We have 56 and 62
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9/7/25 Post Game Thread - Bills vs Ravens SNF
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Some observations on the DL:
I was disappointed how many times the veterans, Bosa and AJ, bit on the run fake and let Lamar get outside.
I was surprised to notice Solomon in on the first series. Seems he played a lot this game. I'll be interest to see the snap counts.
Sanders stood out to me on a few plays; Walker did not.
I hope this is the Ed Oliver we see all season--mostly unstoppable.
All in all, I'm encouraged with the young guys--trial by fire. We will need them come February...