GunnerBill

It isn't just the speed with Coleman. He is a bad contested catch guy as well. He is strong and a good YAC guy. But I don't know that is enough to be more than a mid to late 2nd.

Yea I think his 2023 tape is clearly the 4th best tape of any receiver in this class. I'd take him and not look back. I get the risks with age and late breakout and one year production. But I saw someone say it the other day and I agree.... if he had two years of his 2023 production he would be slam dunk WR4 in this class for everyone.

The two receiver picks that I would hate are: Coleman at #28 And Walker at #60 I can talk myself into almost any of the other realistic options at those spots.

I agree Latu is unlikely on their board. I am not sure I agree on Legette being a complete outlier. He is a physical freak which aligns with Josh, Tremaine, Ed and Groot. They like their freaks. I take the point that they like young freaks and their older picks - Tre and Dalton have been more polished guys. So it is an alteration to the trend but it isn't a complete outlier IMO. To be clear - I don't expect the Bills to pick Legette at #28 and I expect Thomas to be higher on their board but this thread isn't what do you think the Bills will do. It is what would YOU do. Who is your guy that would get you off receiver at #28. To me it is Latu. I'd take Latu over everyone except the top 3 receivers. It would be touch and go with my WR4 - Legette - but I'd still do it. It is enough clear blue water with my WR5 that I wouldn't even think, I'd do it. Ask the question that way - Latu or whoever your WR4 is on your board? And believe me it is NOT consensus that Thomas is WR4. I touched base with some very plugged in guys pre-combine and it was a real mix. Thomas was most popular (I even found a guy who had him above Odunze), but there were people who had Mitchell at WR4, Worthy at WR4 and Coleman at WR4.

He is WR5 for me and he would be a tier below Latu as a prospect by my board. I know you don't like him but I'd be closer to having the conversation on Legette. Latu is the half a round higher graded DE from your example if compared to Thomas in my view.

He has some talent but I think he has been slightly overhyped by some in the process. He is very quick, but for someone with so much speed he isn't open as often as he should be and the reason is he is not a good route runner - often imprecise and gives up leverage willingly. I think some of that is coachable, and there has been some improvement in his hands but he is early 3rd round in terms of grade for me. He is in a little cluster with Ricky Pearsall and Javon Baker for me in my kind of 4th tier of receivers (would be a 3rd tier in most drafts) and I think I like him the least of those 3.

FIFY

likely a vet minimum to give them a baseline 4th DT after Oliver, Jones and Johnson. I'd be surprised if he ends up making the 53. But if they don't land a DT anywhere in the draft maybe he has a shot.

That LSU team had studs though - Burrow, Jefferson, Delpit even CEH and Chaisson who haven't panned out. That Michigan list reads like a lot of depth players to me.

Yea I get it but realistically how many snaps would he get? I love Newton as a pick I'd find it hard to hate on. As a strategy however.... it is not for me.

See that is where I get into my difference point. I have Chop just ahead of Worthy on grades but in the same tier. So I'd probably take Worthy. I would not take Franklin at #28. I might also consider an OT there. If 5 receivers have gone the likelihood is there hasn't been a run on tackles. So that could come into play.

So I love Newton and I like Murphy a lot. But they are 3Ts. How do you get the value out of them with Ed playing 70% of the snaps and being your best defender last year?

I could certainly see that. In a weaker class I think he'd be a cert for day 2. He is above the other more popular names in the tier for me the Foster, Goncalves, Fisher types who have been talked about in the same area of the draft. I have a 4th on Roger but I wouldn't hate on any team taking him in the third. Technically good, played in big games, elite athleticism at the position. It is just size really that is the knock. He will fall for teams who are very rigid on their parameters for tackles. Maybe some thing he can slide into guard?

I am not sure we will ever know the full extent of what went on but I don't think 2023 was a great year for Josh Allen's personal life. I do think he looked heavier all year and I suspect he just had ***** going on last spring and summer that affected him.

Latu is my answer too. If he is there then unless one of the top 3 receivers is also there I'd take him and start trying to trade up in round 2 to make sure I get a receiver. He is just a tier of talent above all the receivers except the top 3. You can't pass on that at a premium position. But this Bills regime has been reluctant to take risks on injury guys. So I doubt they'd do it.

I'm doing this as just guys I like in the class and am really high on (probably higher than the consensus in some cases) rather than as fits for the Bills. Some are, some aren't and the days are where I have them graded more than where I think they go in some cases. Round 1 Quinyon Mitchell Johnny Newton Xavier Legette Jordan Morgan Day 2 Braden Fiske Christian Haynes Jaylen Wright Javon Baker Dadrion Taylor-Demerson Day 3 (more to come on these guys when I do my sleepers thread) Elijah Jones Deantre Prince Jalyx Hunt Darius Muasau Roger Rosengarten Cornelius Johnson Tip Reiman

I don't think there is much chance either get to #60. I'm definitely hearing more people I respect talking about Legette as having a small chance of sneaking into the end of round 1 than I did a month ago pre-combine when I basically couldn't find anyone who thought that. I don't think he will, ultimately, I think he will go somewhere between 30 and 50. I think the first 20 picks of round 2 will be a MAJOR run on receivers. We have increasingly seen that pattern. 7 went between 34 and 54 in 2022 and 7 went between 32 and 59 in 2020 (the last two comparatively strong receiver classes). I am not sure the record of 6 in round 1 will be broken. But the record of 13 in the first two rounds? I'd take the over on that for sure.

Easily thanksgiving / black friday. Honestly the last two years I havent liked prime time week 1 it kinda sucks watching everyone else play and waiting. And I don't like the idea of Saturday / Wednesday and Christmas Day. I only get one xmas day in two with my partner and it is this year so it is one day I'd rather not have Bills stress.

It is every other team except Tampa. I would take an edge rusher though if one of the top tier talents in this class fell to us, because that will be a tier above any receiver available and I would never justify reaching down a tier for anything other than a Quarterback. The only way that happens is if Latu falls based on medicals and if that happens I am not sure the Bills would do that.... this regime has been quite risk adverse on medical flags in the early rounds of the draft. The edge pick they will make at #28 if they make one is Chop Robinson. I wouldn't do that. But I can see them really liking him.

Good player but he seems to replicate skillsets we have on the roster. I think he will ultimately do a lot of his damage in the NFL from the slot. He is a bit like Samuel he can do some outside stuff and be moved around the formation but he isn't going to be a game wrecking outside receiver. He is going to be a guy who lines up all over catches the ball and gets some YAC. I don't think you have much diversity in your receiving corps with a 30 year old Diggs plus Samuel, Shakir and McConkey.

In your scenario, that's easy - you pick the edge. Because (without getting too bogged down in the hypothetical grading system) a difference of half a point is probably at least one tier difference on the draft board. There it isn't about whether the drop off is bigger it is just about taking the guy who is clearly the best player at a premium position. The difficult scenario is if it is closer and the other way around.... so let's say your highest graded remaining player is a wide receiver, at 8.9 and the next best is an edge at 8.7 and the drop off at edge is down to your 7.9 example but you have 6 receivers between 8.6 and 8.0 that is where it gets tricky. But Beane also has to weigh up how likely is he to then be able to get any of his 6 other closely graded receivers? Because it is okay in theory saying "the drop off is bigger at edge" but you have to really look at the drop off between the guys there at #28 and what is likely to be there at #60. If you think the likelihood is all six of the receivers in between are gone the next time you get on the clock then the drop off being less is pretty irrelevant. The only scenario in which you take a guy other than receiver is if the guy you have BPA sticking out on the board is higher tier of prospect (not just 0.1 or 0.2 difference) and is at a premium position.

I hate this. I can live with it when it is a weekend and fits the normal cycle, but when Christmas is midweek just leave it alone.

I wasn't the one comparing him to Lewis. I was just correcting a factual inaccuracy.

Exactly the contract range I said he'd be in $8-10m. Good for Tre. The Rams need help at the spot. If he can get healthy he can still be very good.

After 3 consecutive losing seasons. If McDermott has that he is gone. In fact I am not sure he'd get three. Barring a major Allen injury I'm not sure he'd get one.