Bocephuz
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Posts posted by Bocephuz
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I really disagree with the first Miller "whiff." Look at the play again, it is a mis-direction, Taylor fakes the handoff and then rolls right without looking at what is happening behind him. Miller slides left and takes the nose tackle and keeps him from pressuring Taylor from the backside. The LB made the initial pressure, not the nose guard that was Miller's assignment.
I would respectfully counter with:
- The LB is the "free man" on the play... Meaning TT is accountable for the LB. Clay is not responsible for blocking the LB as he is going into the flat to catch the ball. In other words TT needs to figure out how to get around that "free man" to make the play
- Miller is slow getting over and lazily just pushes the DT's shoulders instead of getting in front of him on his chest numbers and squaring him up. If Miller does a better job on the backside there TT likely has more time and works around the LB and either completes throw to Clay or runs for some yards.
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Thx. I think you nailed why coaches were looking so hard at Ducasse at camp. Vlad is so bad, most people ignored how poorly Miller has looked this summer.
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Great post and many thanks! Agree with most points in it, too.
Do take issue with the INT being totally on Taylor. Should have thrown it earlier, but a TE making the money Clay is making should probably hold onto a ball that hits his hands on the 1 yard line. If I had to ratio it, then I'd apportion 65% fault to Clay and 35% fault to Taylor on that play.
Totally agree that while Matthews was open on the long YAC play, it was Taylor's positioning of the ball to the correct side that allowed Matthews to turn how he did and avoid the initial would-be tackler.
agree on the Clay thing after taking a second look at sideline cam and seeing Zay Jones as primary read
also agree on the Matthews throw.
good points
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Solid post, thanks for putting this together!!!
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I believe the reason he doesn't hit Clay at the top of the drop as it looks like his first read was the receiver to the left there (Zay?) and then he comes back to Clay
Ok.. yes. Upon further review it looks like TT was staring at Zay Jones as his first read and comes back to Clay second read.
So it is not so clear cut that this was an unforced error.
My criticism is that he still could have seen that Jones was not good option earlier and moved on to second read a little faster. That is nitpicking I suppose on my part though.
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Thanks, Bo, for these -- I always look forward to them. Really glad to hear Mills played well based upon your review.
Yeah.. I was really shocked at Mills. He was decent when he first came in '15 so I guess there is hope.
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These are great as usual. Thanks, again.
I think that gif of the goalline play to Clay again shows that he should have caught the ball, hits him in two hands, in addition to being a late throw and behind him. But he has to catch that. I would expect Nick O'Leary to catch that.
One thing that came to mind though as I read the post was that there probably was a good chance that TT waited so long because the play before the ball was batted down at the line. If you look close, the Jets DE is in his eyeline when waiting for Clay to get open. If he throws early as everyone wanted him to, including me, it could be batted down again. So he waits the extra beat, the DE is taken a little wider by Glenn, and then TT throws. That could be it in a nutshell, rather than he holds it way too long like he often does.
Still not a good pass and still needs to be caught anyway.
thanks..
is it possible that Clay could have made the catch.? .. Yes.
Should he have been in that position in the first place.. probably not.
I can understand TT being gun shy about batted balls but he has to get over that. In looking at the GIF again there is a nice clean window between Incognito and Glenn for him to throw through. ( Also.. thumbs up to Shady on pass protect there.. outstanding job)
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So you don't agree with some that Int should have been a routine catch for Clay?
definitely not routine. it would have been routine if TT would have thrown it a second earlier.
Thanks for reviving this series. Good to hear Mills looked alright in pass pro.
One thing I will say is in your frame you show a Matthews "wide open," which he is. However, to me i also looks like Tyrod led him in the right direction to help him break free for that big time YAC. This is something TT detractors point to as a weakness, but it looked like a perfect ball. He throws it to Matthews' right, you get a PBU, you throw it to his chest, he likely gets tackled quickly. But throwing to his left side allows him to turn a little and reach, while the LB dives toward him, ultimately missing the tackle and sends Matthews on a long run.
great point.. yes.. TT did lead him allowing YAC. Hopefully that improves this year as we go.
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These have become my favorite postgame posts. Thanks for the work you put into them.
thanks.. they take a while to create. .glad some people find them useful
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Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not?
I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did /
How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate)
Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field.
DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play)
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TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 36
LINE BREAKDOWNS: 7/36 or 19% In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 19% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate.. so lets say the O Line was average against the Jets.
SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 29/36 or 81%. In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 81% of the time.
UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 4/36 or 11% . Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 4 unforced errors by my count. Which is under the danger line.
BOTTOM LINE
CORDY GLENN – Cordy Glenn was not his old dominant self but he was ok. He gave up a pressure in Q1 and was rotated out for Dawkins several times.
DION DAWKINS - was ok rotating in at LT for Glenn a few times. Did give up a pressure in Q1 but for a rookie debut coming off bench he did as well as could have been expected
INCOGNITO SOLID – Richie was his usual stout self in pass protect.ERIC WOOD – up and down. He was generally solid. He did a good job picking up a stunt in q1 but on the other hand missed a stunt in Q2.
JOHN MILLER SHAKY- Miller had a really rough day. Of the 7 O Line breakdowns he was responsible for 3. He and Wood did a good job picking up a stunt in q1.. however.. he was manhandled by Leonard Williams several times. Granted Williams is an elite DT .. but Miller was pretty much dominated.
Q1 15:00 – Miller whiffs on 99 first play of game. Gives up pressure
Q2- 6:34 – Miller manhandled by 92 again
JORDAN MILLS – had a really nice day. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.
O LINE PASS BLOCK GRADES
CORDY GLENN - B-
DION DAWKINS – B-
RICHIE INCOGNITO – B+
ERIC WOOD - B
JOHN MILLER - D
JORDAN MILLS - A
TYROD GOALLINE ERRORS - Of the 4 Unforced Errors TT committed.. 2 of them came in the first quarter on back to back plays in the redzone. If the Bills punch it in here for 7 the Jets are likely demoralized and the route is on. These 2 back to back mistakes were the only real stains on an otherwise solid day from TT
POOR THROWS
Q1 9:06 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT telegraphs an out route to Clay on the goalline and the DE clearly sniffs it out.. stalls his rush and jumps up to bat the ball down. TT needs to learn to not stare down here.Q1 9:02 – UNFORCED ERROR - TT is late and behind to Clay on the goalline causing an INT. As the Gif shows.. Clay is open right over the middle when TT hits his drop. TT has a clean pocket and should have let it go right then.. but for some reason he drifts left and by the time he throws to Clay the safety comes up and smacks him in the back causing an INT
TYROD POSITIVES -MIDDLE/TIGHT END - TT continued the trend of effectively using the middle of the field (carrying that over from the last few games of ’16). His footwork was also better for the most part (barring a few exceptions) and he was generally getting the ball out on time. With that being said..the Jets LBs and DBs really struggled covering the short middle area and he didn’t really have to fit many of these throws into tight windows. See example below.. Matthews is wide open here.. not exactly a high degree of difficulty here
However.. still progress here with slants and crossing routes over the middle. The next step will be to see him complete some deep seam routes down the middle (none really attempted against Jets)
MOBILITY - TT generally made sound decisions to tuck and run .. picking up a few key first downs. His play at the end of Q1 (shown below) where he escapes pressure and Houdinis a throw to Matthews for a first down was simply incredible. Not many QBs have the athleticism to pull that off.
STANDING IN POCKET TAKING HIT AND DELIVERING - TT has been criticized for not standing tall in the pocket, delivering a strike and taking a hit. In the play below he hangs tough, delivers to Clay and gets popped. I hope to see more of this going forward
GAME SUMMARY
Typically when the Bills throw more than 30 times with TT at the helm they lose. Against the Jets they threw 25 times in the first half alone and 36 times overall for the game. So in this game they overcame the 30+ attempts per game curse.. let's hope that is a trend that continues. Also of note is that the assumption was that TT would predominantly be under center in this offense.. for week 1 it was the opposite.. he was in Shotgun 23 out of 36 snaps.Outside of John Miller the O Line had a reasonably solid day .. giving TT time to throw on 81% of his dropbacks. TT did a decent job going over his reads and didn’t really leave too much on the table. His WR’s were blanketed on the deep ball attempts and in general had trouble getting any separation down the field. Great job by Dennison of carving up the middle of the field and taking advantage of what the Jets were giving them and the weakness of them defending the middle.
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POSITIVES -JORDAN MILLS - i'll admit I've been a Mills basher after his performance in '16.. however.. he was very very solid against the Jets. If he can play at that level all year this offense has a shot to be decent.
QUICK GAME PROGRESS CONTINUES - TT is showing signs of being able to hit his drop and get the ball out quickly
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MOBILITY - TTs mobility can be a blessing and a curse.. but at the end of the day his ability to scramble, buy time and run if necessary (when properly implemented) was an asset today.
MOVING THE CHAINS – TT did something he hasn’t necessarily done well in the past.. move the chains. TT consistently put the Bills in good situations and executed on getting first downs and controlling the ball.
NEGATIVESJOHN MILLER - granted Miller was lined up against a beast in Leonard Williams.. but ouch.. he got tossed around pretty bad Sunday. I'm really hoping this was more of a case of Leonard Williams and less Miller's decline in play. Let's hope he rebounds .. because the alternative ( Ducassse) is not pretty.
DEEP BALL - hard to pin this on Taylor .. more on the WRs not getting behind the D.. but
RED ZONE - TT’s 2 unforced errors on the first drive had a major impact on the flow of the 1st half. In looking back at older posts this seems to be a trend .. where he commits most of his errors in Q1 but then settles down during the game.
SIGNIFICANT PLAYS
Q1 15:00 - Miller whiffs on 99 gives up pressure
q1 14:18- Wood and Miller do a great job picking up a stunt allowing TT completion over the middle
q1 13:25 - O'Leary slips on out route .. TT good throw but slip causes incompletion
q1 - 9:06 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT telegraphs out route to Clay and DE jumps up and bats it down
q1 9:02 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT is late and behind Clay on goalline causing INT
q1 5:39 - Cordy glen beaten to the inside results in scramble/sack
q1 1:28 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws high and behind Clay on an open in route
q1 1:22 - Dawkins beaten to outside..gives up pressure.. TT has incredible escape and makes completion to Matthews
q2 6:34 - John Miller run over by 92 ... TT delivers ball to Clay and takes a hit
q2 4:51 - John Miller manhandled by 92 again
q2 - :57 - Clay drops out route
q2 :51 - Wood doesn't pick up a stunt .. SACK
q3 11:27 - Deep ball to Matthews is good throw but CB has good coverage
q3 8:36 - 5 Step drop, nice throw to Matthews over the middle
q4 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws a screen pass at Jordan Mills' feet.. just a plain old dud throw
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Miserable Bastard
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this is clearly the winner.. how could I have forgotten this
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Clutch catch...
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This is very doable.
according to Spotrac we have ~ $12 mil in cap space ( top 51 players figure)
I see him slotting in between Brandon Marshall deal high end ( 2 years $11mil / $5.5 mil per year avg) and Brandon LaFell deal ( 2 years $9 mil/ $4.5 mil per year avg)
So..... offer him 2 year $10 mil and if you need to sweeten the deal guarantee the 1st year.
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Love the concept OP. Well done.
As an O Line junkie ... here is my take on the OL
Offensive Line
Cordy Glenn - there is a small chance that he's moved to RT if Ducasse or Dawkins don't work out.. but either way he is definitely on the roster
Richie Incognito - played at very high level last year...highly unlikely he is salary cap cut. team hoping to get one more good year out of him
John Miller - improved greatly last year despite having a tire fire to his right all year. he will not be cut
Ryan Groy - just resigned, played as good or better than Wood filling in for him. He very well may win the starting Center job. At worst he is solid backup center or guard.
Dion Dawkins - will get shot at RT spot. At worst should be valuable backup swing guard or maybe even backup swing tackle
Vlad Ducasse - similar to Dawkins.. will likely get shot at RT. Will most likely be backup guard, emergency tackle
Cyrus Kouandjio - performed very well at LT last year when Glenn was hurt. Assuming his off field problems have been addressed I think he may be able to keep a roster spot. One thing hurting him is his lack of versatility. He was a failure at RT and is not suited to play Guard. However.. he does look comfortable at his natural LT position which is still the key to the O LIne.. especially for a Right Handed QB.Eric Wood - Groy's play when he was out puts him squarely on the bubble. IMO .. Wood will need to clearly outplay Groy in training camp or else he will likely be cut or traded due to his high cap number and age.
Jordan Mills - Red is an appropriate color for Mills as he was a tire fire for most of last year at RT. Unless there is a rash of injuries I find it highly unlikely that he will be able to hold off his competition. Very likely to be a cut
Seantrel Henderson - so many issues here I don't know where to start. Even when he was healthy he wasn't that good. Maybe Doug Marrone will trade for him.
Patrick Lewis - have seen very little of him in action and having Wood and Groy in the fold it seems unlikely he will be able to hang on to a roster spot -
painful for me to post this.. but Dal at Buf MNF 2007 is my most exciting. Most depressing as well. I remember lying on my stomach with my head down the floor of my apartment in front of the TV after Folk made his kick. I literally did not move for 5 minutes. That was the ultimate kick in the nuts https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPupCwlK45I
- Cowboys have ball with less than a minute to go .. score is Buffalo 24- Dal 16
- Romo throws TD with :20 on the clock to make it Buf 24 - Dal 22
- Jabari Greer INTERCEPTS 2 PT CONVERSION!!!!
Buf 24 - Dal 22 - Dal recovers onside kick
- Romo completes pass to Bills 25 .. Dal calls Timeout with :01 on clock
- Nick Folk makes a 42 yd field goal Buf 24 - Dal 25
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Pretty crazy game. Most people left or were seen leaving before the last minute.
that is pretty cool... hail mary. Also Fergie was before my time ( I was born in 1979) so cool to see him action. God Bless youtube
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"It's a New Era v. 2.0"
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Owner:
Sets goals, work culture. Has regular reviews/meetings with management and holds them accountable.
GM:Most vital task is ensuring the roster is properly managed. Consults with HC, Owner on player personnel moves but has ultimate final say on roster.
HC:
Responsible for all on-field actions by players/assistants...most importantly game management functions such as clock management, replays, tempo, strategy. May have expertise in one particular area but main responsibility is to ensure that all 3 phases ( Special Teams, Offense, and Defense) work together in a cohesive fashion. Should delegate things such as play calling, scheme, technique teaching as much as possible to assistants. Responsible for developing relationship with players and balancing morale and discipline. Reports directly to the GM.
COORDINATORS :Responsible for scheme, technique and execution of their phase of the game ( defense, special teams, offense). Should defer to head coach on game day to ensure that strategy/play calling meshes with other 2 phases. Reports to head coach.
Positional coaches:
Fine tuning of position groups. Teaches tricks of the trade. -
Good point. From what I hear Mahomes has a solid work ethic so maybe he can learn pro style in time. My concern is that he didn't even stay within the confines of the simple Air Raid offense most of the time. From what I saw he improvised 80% of snaps. In other words.. he may be smart enough to learn the stuff but what good does it do when it all goes out the window when the bullets are real.If the AIr Raid stuff is unfair to Webb it must also be unfair to Mahomes
With Webb I get the impression that he is much more open to staying true to a system
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Do you still believe that Deshaun Watson has a stronger arm than Patrick Mahomes?
In the 3 games I watched from Mahomes I didn't see any throws that lead me to believe his arm clearly was head and shoulders above the other guys. I saw him throwing off balance and on the run a lot.. so in that aspect..being able to throw from awkward positions yes he has arm talent. It's very possible that he showed that plus plus arm off in the games I didn't see.
There were multiple throws I saw from Webb where he was "throwing darts" 20 - 30 yards down the field.
In the 3 games I watched with Watson I saw a fair amount of zip and did not get the impression that he has a "weak" arm.
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The Air Raid stuff is just lazy. The college scheme becomes an excuse not to scout the traits.
As for best in the class? No. I liked Webb as a later round guy but when I saw him flying up the board I wouldn't use a 1st or 2nd on him. Depends on value, I would have considered it 3rd or 4th round.
I'm not saying the Air Raid offense is legit.
My point is that if you read the article it points out that he's passionate about learning and his football acumen already seems very developed. In other words.. given a reasonable amount of time he seems to have the capacity to learn if not master an NFL offense.
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This year might end up being really intersting
I could totally see the bills going D player at 10 or trading down...picking up an additional 2nd....and picking a player like Webb
or....we could draft a qb at 10.....
guess we will see soon
I think he'll likely be gone by the time our 2nd round pick comes up. I'd love to see us trade down from #10 down to somewhere in the 20's which would be the perfect spot to grab him.
I don't know if he'll be able to immediately win the starting job but I think he'd definitely be ready after a year on the bench.
WEEK 1: ALL 22 REVIEW - O LINE PASS PROT /QB UNFORCED ERRORS
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Thanks. A few years back I started to focus on one of the linemen on the snap ( usually a tackle .. but sometimes a guard) and it changed my perspective a bit. That being said.. it's hard to pick this stuff up in real time with sideline camera.. so I wait until the All 22 comes out on game pass so I can make better observations
Thanks.
I certainly don't expect everyone to agree with all of my conclusions.. the spirit of these posts is to generate solid informed discussion which this one has done so far