Bocephuz
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Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not?
I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did /
How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalties but this should be 95% accurate)
Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field.
DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play)
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TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 35 - (Last week was 36)
LINE BREAKDOWNS: 7/35 or 20% ( last week was 7/36 or 19% ). In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 20% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate.. so lets say the O Line was average again against the Panthers.
SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 28/35 or 80% ( last week was 29/36 or 81%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 80% of the time.
UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 7/35 or 20% ( last week was 4/36 or 11%). Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 7 unforced errors by my count which is over the danger line.
BOTTOM LINE
CORDY GLENN – Cordy Glenn started the game but did not finish. He gave up one pressure I believe. Definitely not his old lock down self but passable.
DION DAWKINS - Dawkins was beaten on an inside move in the 3rd quarter giving up a pressure.. but other than that was solid enough in pass protect
RICHIE INCOGNITO – Richie didn’t do so well figuring out stunts today. A rare down day for 64Q2 –9:16 – Incognito does not pick up stunting DE and TT has to check down
ERIC WOOD – Wood also appears to have not properly identified/blocked several stunts. He wasn’t physically beaten however.. which is saying something based on their DTs.
q3 9:03 - SACK - Wood doesn't pick up the stunt from the DE. Incognito is being distracted by Kuechly and doesn't help out. Mills also beaten to the outside.
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JOHN MILLER - Miller was better today. However he too appeared to have misplayed a stunt in q2 and he and Wood did not seem to be on the same page at all. He also had a blatant illegal hands to the face that wiped out a first down. Like Wood however.. he was not really physically beaten all day so that’s a step in the right direction
JORDAN MILLS – well.. the old Mills showed back up today. He was beaten to the outside multiple times and also appeared to have misplayed a stunt. Out of the 7 line breakdowns he was involved in 3.
O LINE PASS BLOCK GRADES
CORDY GLENN - C
DION DAWKINS – C
RICHIE INCOGNITO – C-
ERIC WOOD - C
JOHN MILLER – C
JORDAN MILLS – C-
TYROD ERRORS - Of the 7 Unforced Errors TT committed.. 3 of them came on the last drive. As shown below.. some of the not pulling the trigger was on him.. some wasn’t his faultTT BAILING ON PLAY TO EARLY - There were several rather clear examples where TT could have shuffle stepped into a pocket window and thrown but he tucked and ran a half sec too early. Overall I don’t feel as mad at TT as I did watching broadcast.. however.. he is still to blame for bailing on the play a few times as we shall see here.
Q1 1:09 – UNFORCED ERROR – tucking head down bailing too early. Had WR open deep over middle of field
Q3 13:45 – SACK – UNFORCED ERROR - If TT shuffle steps up into the small window on the right side.. trusts his eyes and sees there is no safety deep to double Clay and lets it go before he makes his break you likely have 6 points here. Instead.. TT puts his head down a half sec to early and takes a sack. This is the difference between a Pro Bowl QB and an average QB.
Here’s another view of this same play from the endzone. You can see Miller holding up his guy just long enough. TT has a nice throwing lane to take a quick step into to let it go to Clay. Unfortunately he gets skittish and tucks and runs
TT WISELY CHECKING DOWN OR RUNNING - Here are a few examples where TT was justified in tucking and running or checking down
q2 10;47 – GOOD SCRAMBLE Tolbert has decent block on LB . Incognito not sure who to help… should have helped Cordy. TT scrambles to get 1st down
Q2:9:16 – GOOD CHECK DOWN - Incognito does not pick up stunting DE
BAD ROUTES? - There were several head scratchers where the routes looked all jumbled up. Here is an example below. Not much for TT to work with here on this playq2 1:51 - BAD PLAY DESIGN.. OR SOMEONE RAN WRONG ROUTE
--- I doubt Dennison drew it up this way. All 5 receivers to the intermediate middle.. hut. I think the slot receiver on the right likely ran the wrong route and probably was supposed to run an out route here to clear some space. TT turns his read right for first read.. doesn’t like what he sees… turns left.. no one open and then a cluster F where all receivers end up bunched up close to each other in the middle. Can’t fault TT for scrambling here.. can’t really fault the O Line either
GAME SUMMARY
Typically when the Bills throw more than 30 times with TT at the helm they lose. Last week they bucked that trend. This week they reverted back to the norm. Upon further review the line played just about as well this week as they did against the Jets in pass protect. The Bills were very stout physically against the strong DTs of the Panthers. The RBs also generally did a good job of picking up blitzers. Carolina really didn’t blitz that much.. they didn’t need to. Their stunt game was strong. The O line was outwitted several times as the Panthers continually executed stunts, confusing the Bills linemen and causing pressure. CAR also appeared to be playing simple Cover 2 or Cover 4 mostly with the LBs excellent in coverage clogging up the middle pretty well. Poorly timed penalties wiped out a few first downs and killed what little rhythm they were starting ( Miller illegal hands to face, Holmes push off). As far as big plays go.. one of them was blown up by Dawkins giving up an inside pressure. That being said.. there were two examples I showed where TT could have hung in the pocket for a half sec more and if he would have kept his head up he could have had 2 big plays as there were open receivers past the safeties.
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SIGNIFICANT PLAYS
Q1 8:22 – Zay Jones drops curl route
Q1 1:09 – UNFORCED ERROR – Line does good job picking up the blitz but TT tucks and runs too early.. not seeing an open receiver deep behind the safeties
Q2 10:47 – Tolbert can’t hold block on LB, Incognito not sure who to block.. TT scrambles for 1st down
Q2 9:16 – Incognito does not pick up stunting DE and TT has to check down
Q2 2:02 – SACK – Miller and Mills don’t identify stunt.. Glenn loses his block. TT doesn’t have much of a chance
Q2 1:57 – John Miller grabs facemask.. penalty wipes out would be completion for 1st down
Q2 1:51 - cluster F of bad route running or possibly bad play design leads to TT scramble
Q3 13:16 – TT stands tall takes hit and completes over middle to Clay
q3 13:45 - SACK - unforced errorq3 12:46 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT has O'Leary open over middle on bootleg to the left but checks down to DiMarco
Q3 12:03 – UNFORCED ERROR - TT ball slips out of hand on blooper throw
q3 9:03 - SACK - Wood and Incognito don't pick up stunt ant TT sacked. Mills also beaten to the outside.
Q3 - 9:13 - Dawking beaten to the inside blows up planned deep throw to Holmes
q3 3:39 -UNFORCED ERROR - TT leads Zay Jones too much on out route
Q4 :53 – UNFORCED ERROR – TT has decent protection.. window to step into but tucks too early and does not see wide open Clay behind the safeties
Q4 :30- UNFORCED ERROR – TT throws to wrong shoulder.. Jones cannot make catch. Game over. -
Yep..i look at pass blocking only. Always interested in hearing what others saw in run block thoughIsn't that sort of flipped from what the right side of our line did last year?
Keep in mind Bocephuz does not analyze OL performance on run blocking plays.
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OK, I love the work, but I have a question.
You said there were 36 total passing plays, correct? That would imply 28 pass attempts, 2 sacks, and 6 scrambles. Right?
Did you count it out while watching?
I ask because kneel downs are usually counted as rushes. And Buffalo ended the game with three straight kneel downs from Taylor for -3 yards. Did the NFL not officially count those as rushes? On top of that, on the second to last drive, there were two designed runs for a total of 14 yards by Taylor. Those weren't passing plays.
I'm not trying to criticize. You might be aware if you've looked at some of my previous posts, but I am genuinely a believer that you should separate scrambles from designed runs. That scrambles should be factored into net passing yards the exact same way that sacks are.
I generally don't count the plays where he obviously has a called QB run like a bootleg.
As this is an offensive line anaylsis i do count snaps where he drops back to pass but scrambles.
Regarding the accuracy of my counts I would refer you to my paragraph 2 disclaimer
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This is where I am at too.
Yeah, and thats one of the reasons I have been so active in this thread and Shaws thread...finally a thread with real discussion and debate. Im cool with the opposing opinions, and even though I greatly disagree on the Clay play with a few people, I respect their opinion and approach to that opinion. Rather enjoyed real back and forth discussion on a topic here rather than the usual stream of non sense thats plagued topics on this board most the off season.
TBH, I am floored that a topic like the TT and Clay subject of the INT has NOT turned into a TT bashing session like any topic usually does around here. It actually stayed almost predominantly on analytics of just the play and not some TT sucks rants. Very refreshing to say the least
Let's aim to keep these that way. Encourage healthy debate/ be objective
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great post, thanks for the work you put into these articles.
Good to see PFF validated my Mills grade. Joe Buscaglia gave him a C .. not sure what he saw there
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Good stuff. Watched that first clay play a few times. I think Taylor slid left too many times. If he stays put after the first slide, then he most likely has a better view and unloads it quicker.
Overall I agree with the conclusion that TT did a lot of good things last Sunday.
That being said..I don't think he was looking for Clay first read on that INT. I think he was genuinely looking for Zay Jones on the Flag route first and when that wasn't there he went back to Clay late.
There was no need for him to hold off the safety near Jones by looking left on that play as the Safety was 15 yards away. He could have thrown it to Clay over the middle immediately when he made his break and Clay would have been wide open with no safety in front of him.
I think an experienced QB sees that a LB is on Clay and knows that is the matchup to look for. Hopefully TT will get there.
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So this is the thread where the intelligent posters dwell now. Good to see. The percentage of quality posts and posters on this board went downhill around the same time BBMB shut down. Maybe just a coincidence. So it's been refreshing to read through this. Thanks OP.
Agree with most that there were a lot of good signs with the passing game on Sunday. Would still like that threat of the deep ball just to keep the defenses honest. We'll see how they handle that going forward.
thanks.. I'll try and do one of these each week .. time permitting.
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I'm late, but this was a great little breakdown and observation. Well done!
Couple of things I'd like to mention:
- Not only did Taylor show signs of improvement in some areas as a passer (even if only one game), he has also shown positives in the mental aspect of the position. Two great examples were the throw away on 2nd down, and the slide near the end of the game. The throw away brought about a long 3rd down, but Taylor converted by scrambling for the sticks, which led to the Holmes TD on the following play. A throw away isn't a "positive" play, but it's not a "negative" play either, and you live to see another play. On the slide, Taylor had the awareness to make sure he picked up the 1st down before beginning his slide (that's where the ball is spotted), and not run out of bounds and stop the clock. The Bills ran off about another 90 seconds after that play, all but sealing the deal that late in a two score game.
Also, his leadership has been noticed and mentioned by players. Taylor has between his ears what some QBs with cannon arms desperately lack (Cutler).
Another thing; I said months ago that this offense would better suit Taylor, and while none of us truly knew exactly what type of offense we would see, we had a good idea. But many people disagreed and said the opposite. But if Sunday was any indication of what we can expect going forward, we should all feel comfortable with Taylor in this scheme. I still don't think we'll see big numbers from the WRs, but McCoy and the TEs may see a significant increase in their production in the passing game, balancing out the "lacking" WR numbers in a way. If that's what keeps the chains moving, who cares? But the fact that the Bills we're in shotgun so much tells me that the coaches are smart enough to not completely change the offense. There were many concepts that worked well over the last 2 years with Taylor, and just scrapping them in order to force the players to cater to scheme would be foolish. This allows the offense to have a more diverse arsenal, and gives the OC flexibility calling plays.
We'll still see a bunch of the Kubiak influenced offense at times, but the offense will probably use a strategy similar to modern defenses. Defenses are 4-3/3-4 in base scheme, but are in nickel more often than base. People tend to put too much emphasis on 4-3/3-4 than they should, based on that fact. It's usually nickel around 60%, base around 40%. Our offense will probably be similar to that idea, in that they'll not be in a traditional formation as often as people may have assumed would be the case.
That's all I wanted to add. Do you do these for the defense as well?
The Taylor side in bounds to keep the clock running was heady on his part. I think Clay stayed in bounds late to keep clock running at one point too. Attention to detail.. hopefully they'll be able to keep that attention to detail for 16 games.
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...IF you have the perseverance to wade through all of the PG-13 Yipping "experts" here (was same on BBMB), you come across someone in the vein of the OP, highly knowledgeable, football astute and one who provides a critical OBJECTIVE analysis.....damn, he's good...makes "wading" worthwhile IMO...........
thank you sir.. I aim to be objective
Great job Bocephuz , thank you especially for OL breakdown.
Very glad to hear Mills did well in this system , surprised Miller is having a hard time.
Fix RT but unfix RG . That should be easier to correct. I take back my harsh judgement of Castillo till we see more.
thanks also to billsfan905 , Made be feel better about Miller.
Count me surprised on Mills, Miller and Castillo as well. This was a good start.. we'll see how it plays out on the road against a recent Super Bowl contender this week.
The first video isn't on John Miller. He gives up quickly on the block because he doesn't want to risk a block in the back call if he stays on. On an outside zone play action Eric Wood should have given a punch with his right hand to the left shoulder of 99 on the first play while stepping with his left foot and "passing" him off to Miller. Miller wasn't in position to take over that block yet, which would technically still be in Wood's "zone".
If he takes a better angle and is a little quicker there then he wouldn't have been in the position to block in the back.
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....nitpicking?...not a chance.....much appreciated spot on and trained eye assessment IMO....nicely done....
It's the difference between good and great
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Just a nit I guess - I don't think anyone would argue that Keuchly and Davis are far better players than Lee and Davis at LB.
I really dislike PFF's OL and DL ratings - I think they're bogus. Both are positions where results are highly dependent upon the unit working as a whole, and very difficult to break down an individual's role.
Example, as I recall under PFF's ranking in 2013 and 2014, Wood sucked as a center while playing between Kraig Urbik and Doug Legursky or Kraig Urbik and Eric Pears.
The previous year, playing between Urbik and LeVitre, Wood was decent and 2015, playing between Incognito and Miller, he also magically improved. Huh.
That's a good point on the OL rankings for PFF. My OL grades are only on pass protect.. it's too hard for me to analyze run blocking. And I do take into account teamwork and how the line handles stunts and things like that. Wood did really look bad when his guards sucked a few years ago..he had to bail them out a lot and they were really sloppy picking up stunts.
PFF does give out run blocking grades as well I believe (not sure what their methodology is but..)
This explains why when we kept running to the right side we had very little success. It was painful to watch at times as we seemed to wanna force it behind miller only to watch it go for a yard or two at most.
I can't speak for Miller's run blocking.. my analysis was only on pass protect.
I will say anecdotally though that Miller seemed to be standing around lost on a few run plays based on the broadcast feed.
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I know. I just took after someone with 62 posts shown who crapped on TBD. Yes, we have people who really don't know their football, but we also have an astounding amount of strong football knowledge and people willing to put in effort and time to share with their fellow fans. This thread being Exhibit 1.
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what does CARs front 4 look like and how does it compare to the Jets? I suspect if our guys held up this well against a known good front in NYJ, we should probably give TT a fair amount of clean pockets next week
According to PFF rankings the D Line rankings are about the same.
JETS FRONT 4
MARTIN - 47.4
WILLIAMS -81.0
WILKERSON - 46.9
JENKINS - 78.9
PANTHERS FRONT 4
JOHNSON - 41.7
PEPPERS - 48.7
SHORT - 88.6
ADDISON - 80.4
The big difference are Carolina's LBs. I doubt the short/intermediate middle stuff will be as wide open as it was against the Jets. I think the WRs will have to play a bigger role and win some more one on one battles this week.
JETS LBS
Lee - 37.5
Davis - 35.2
PANTHERS LBS
Keuchly - 82.3
Davis - 85
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Finished reading it. Excellent breakdown! Did you see any plays with receivers running wide open that Tyrod missed? This is the prevailing narrative about Tyrod but I haven't seen it from any reviews of this game.
Buffalo News should have Bocephuz and Shaw66 as columnists. I'm not paying a monthly subscription fee to read Jerry Sullivan whine abour random crap. Crazy that content provided for free right here on TSW is better than the paid professionals.
Jerry Sullivan is awful.. If I see his name in the byline I skip over it. He adds no value. And the fact that they charge now? Please. There are so many other good sources (BillsWire, Buffalo Rumblings etc...) to get better informed Bills content.
As to your question.. in the past I would usually see several instances of TT not looking the way of open receivers.. or .. TT seeing them but not daring to pull the trigger. For this Jets game however.. I really didn't see that at all. On the several plays where they were clearly trying to focus on deeper routes the WRs really didn't have any separation
Amazing breakdown. Fantastic.
Looks like a guard is on the list for April 2018.
Miller's interviews really tell a lot, he's a very meek kind of person, very quiet and soft spoken. Tells a lot IMHO.
Thanks.
I'm really hoping Miller turns it around so we don't have to start at square 1 again. Regardless of Miller ..Incognito is getting older too so I hope they draft a guard in 1st 3 rounds next year
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Exactly, no one will ever agree with everything. I certainly enjoy reading peoples thoughts out opinions on things like this, so big kudos to the time it takes to do it all. And like I said, I rather enjoyed the write up, bang up job bud. The one thing I am just adamant about is Clay not getting this excuse that it was a bad pass because he has continually come up short in his time in Buffalo.
He is very talented and athletic, but his mental focus and lapses just frustrate me and at some point he needs to be held accountable. Too many times on key plays he runs a sloppy route, seems to dog it, drop a pass, or not even look for the ball despite running a passing route.
The last 2 years, there have been times where Clay was open and TT just didn't see him, and TT stated he's aware of that and talked to Clay about it. So I am hoping that some of those mental lapses came out of frustration by Clay and that an offense where TT looks for him more and the OC calls his number more will keep Clay more mentally engaged from play to play. Not that frustration is an acceptable excuse, because you need to give 100% all the time, but at least if that was a factor its possible to reduce it with a higher usage rate.
Clay had a pretty good day overall.. but to your point he did have a bad drop q2 :57
Nice analysis by the OP. Appreciate the work. One minor point: on the last item listed, I believe TT deliberately threw that at Mills feet. The play was not there. Good decision actually.
Perhaps.. but it was an awfully quick bail on the play if he didn't like what he saw.
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Holy Schmoly! Jordan Mills received the highest grade? That's encouraging.
Bo, nice work. I usually watch games like a typical fan and follow the ball. Only once in a while do I keep my eyes on the linemen instead.
Your analysis gives me a clearer idea of what's happening in the trenches. Thanks.
Thanks. A few years back I started to focus on one of the linemen on the snap ( usually a tackle .. but sometimes a guard) and it changed my perspective a bit. That being said.. it's hard to pick this stuff up in real time with sideline camera.. so I wait until the All 22 comes out on game pass so I can make better observations
Agreed. And I am sorry, no QB delivers the ball perfectly every throw. So even if one wants to argue that the ball could have been placed slightly better, it does not excuse our starting TE from letting a pass go through both his hands right in front of his face from about 7 yards away. That is a throw I will take any QB throwing 100% of the time. The TE, who is among the highest paid in the NFL, absolutely does not get a pass for not catch that throw. Its essentially the same throw as a back shoulder throw, which is a mandatory pass any receiving target is expected to catch in the NFL.
But to the OP...I appreciate your work and write up and enjoy reading it, but I just don't agree thats a QB error which would be an uncatchable pass or very low % throw with high risk. The pass to Clay was neither of those and our TE blew it again.
Thanks.
I certainly don't expect everyone to agree with all of my conclusions.. the spirit of these posts is to generate solid informed discussion which this one has done so far
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I really disagree with the first Miller "whiff." Look at the play again, it is a mis-direction, Taylor fakes the handoff and then rolls right without looking at what is happening behind him. Miller slides left and takes the nose tackle and keeps him from pressuring Taylor from the backside. The LB made the initial pressure, not the nose guard that was Miller's assignment.
I would respectfully counter with:
- The LB is the "free man" on the play... Meaning TT is accountable for the LB. Clay is not responsible for blocking the LB as he is going into the flat to catch the ball. In other words TT needs to figure out how to get around that "free man" to make the play
- Miller is slow getting over and lazily just pushes the DT's shoulders instead of getting in front of him on his chest numbers and squaring him up. If Miller does a better job on the backside there TT likely has more time and works around the LB and either completes throw to Clay or runs for some yards.
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Thx. I think you nailed why coaches were looking so hard at Ducasse at camp. Vlad is so bad, most people ignored how poorly Miller has looked this summer.
👍
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Great post and many thanks! Agree with most points in it, too.
Do take issue with the INT being totally on Taylor. Should have thrown it earlier, but a TE making the money Clay is making should probably hold onto a ball that hits his hands on the 1 yard line. If I had to ratio it, then I'd apportion 65% fault to Clay and 35% fault to Taylor on that play.
Totally agree that while Matthews was open on the long YAC play, it was Taylor's positioning of the ball to the correct side that allowed Matthews to turn how he did and avoid the initial would-be tackler.
agree on the Clay thing after taking a second look at sideline cam and seeing Zay Jones as primary read
also agree on the Matthews throw.
good points
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Solid post, thanks for putting this together!!!
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I believe the reason he doesn't hit Clay at the top of the drop as it looks like his first read was the receiver to the left there (Zay?) and then he comes back to Clay
Ok.. yes. Upon further review it looks like TT was staring at Zay Jones as his first read and comes back to Clay second read.
So it is not so clear cut that this was an unforced error.
My criticism is that he still could have seen that Jones was not good option earlier and moved on to second read a little faster. That is nitpicking I suppose on my part though.
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Thanks, Bo, for these -- I always look forward to them. Really glad to hear Mills played well based upon your review.
Yeah.. I was really shocked at Mills. He was decent when he first came in '15 so I guess there is hope.
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These are great as usual. Thanks, again.
I think that gif of the goalline play to Clay again shows that he should have caught the ball, hits him in two hands, in addition to being a late throw and behind him. But he has to catch that. I would expect Nick O'Leary to catch that.
One thing that came to mind though as I read the post was that there probably was a good chance that TT waited so long because the play before the ball was batted down at the line. If you look close, the Jets DE is in his eyeline when waiting for Clay to get open. If he throws early as everyone wanted him to, including me, it could be batted down again. So he waits the extra beat, the DE is taken a little wider by Glenn, and then TT throws. That could be it in a nutshell, rather than he holds it way too long like he often does.
Still not a good pass and still needs to be caught anyway.
thanks..
is it possible that Clay could have made the catch.? .. Yes.
Should he have been in that position in the first place.. probably not.
I can understand TT being gun shy about batted balls but he has to get over that. In looking at the GIF again there is a nice clean window between Incognito and Glenn for him to throw through. ( Also.. thumbs up to Shady on pass protect there.. outstanding job)
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So you don't agree with some that Int should have been a routine catch for Clay?
definitely not routine. it would have been routine if TT would have thrown it a second earlier.
Thanks for reviving this series. Good to hear Mills looked alright in pass pro.
One thing I will say is in your frame you show a Matthews "wide open," which he is. However, to me i also looks like Tyrod led him in the right direction to help him break free for that big time YAC. This is something TT detractors point to as a weakness, but it looked like a perfect ball. He throws it to Matthews' right, you get a PBU, you throw it to his chest, he likely gets tackled quickly. But throwing to his left side allows him to turn a little and reach, while the LB dives toward him, ultimately missing the tackle and sends Matthews on a long run.
great point.. yes.. TT did lead him allowing YAC. Hopefully that improves this year as we go.
WEEK 2 - AT CAR: ALL 22 REVIEW: O LINE/ QB UNFORCED ERRORS
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
thanks. have my hands full just getting out all 22 for o line/ qb. hopefully someone else will do that though
yeah.. it was just an example for him settling for "ok" instead of "more"