BigPappy
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Posts posted by BigPappy
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I think you misunderstand. The goal is to always look one year ahead. It's doubtful that a 5th rounder will be ready in one year. But you will definitely know whether a 5th rounder with potential drafted in 2014 will have the capability to contribute in 2015 or 2016. That's the risk I'm talking about. By not bringing in another QB this year, Bills are effectively shut out until 2016 if EJ falters. If they had brought in somebody else, at least that would add to the options. And I'm saying this because I have very little faith in Lewis, Tuel or Dixon becoming quality NFL starters.
No, I'm commenting on the quality of players on the roster right now, which is pathetic. It's ok to admit that Bills QB situation is scary.
I wouldn't be down on a 2014 round 3-5 prospect because he would still be in the introductory period.
Stop making excuses for p** poor planning. There was zero rationale for going into camp with Lewis, Tuel & Dixon as the backups.
GG,
No, I understand you and I agree with you 100 percent. You have to be looking a few years ahead. That's why I said it didn't make sense to draft a 5th or 6th round draft choice as a replacement for EJ if he failed this year as the original post that i replied to stated. If your drafting a prospect in the 2014 draft...fine by me, but then you should be drafting him for the 2016 season not the 2015 season. If that his how things are going to be ran...also fine by me, then start JT in 2015 which would be his 3rd year as a pro and see how he does. As for the 2014 "prospect" QB, he may be able to contribute in 2016 like you say, but unlikely in 2015 since he would see little to no play time this year, next year (2015) if he started would be for all intensive purposes a rookie year for him, and the start of his actual development since in all likely hood, unless he really came into camp on a freight train and really impressed coaches to be the #2 or #3 guy he would probably be placed on the PS anyway.
BigPappy
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Because the No. 2, 3, 4 guys in camp now are virtually interchangeable. You would not feel comfortable with any of these 3 to play more than 3 games. So why the need to have three of the same on the roster. The reason you bring in someone else is to add optionality and increase the odds that you may hit on a decent backup or even hit a home run with a potential starter.
GG,
I understand your logic, and don't necessarily disagree, but that wasn't really the point of my reply. As a prospect draft choice he like your previous years draft choice will need to develop which puts him a year behind your "prospect" QB draft choice from the previous year. But i was commenting on the posters logic of using a prospect draft choice as a replacement to EJ should he fail this year. Your chances of taking a 5th or 6th round draft choice that you target as a QB prospect and having him learn the offense well enough to start his following year are so remote it's not even funny. It happens, but not often. By using that logic, you end up rotating QB's every couple of years with no continuity and no one has a real chance to develop and since this team has played at the level of mediocrity for the last 15 years, they don't really have the opportunity to draft that Home run QB as you called it.
BigPappy
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They should have taken an insurance QB in the mid round this year. There where plenty available and I think it was a huge mistake for them not to take one. Say for example EJ fails this year and we end up 4-12. With no 1st round next year we are in big trouble. Taking a mid round this year... well at least we'd have something going into 2015 (if EJ fails of course.)
Who say's we are in trouble if EJ goes 4-12 this year? He played in 10 games last year, two of which he didn't finish. So for argument sake, he has played in 9 "full" games. That's one game more than half a season. Who's to say he doesn't come into year 3 and light it up with a full season of experience behind him.
The average rookie QB takes 3 years to develop into a good starting QB. Are there exception...of course, both on the good side and the bad. Peyton Manning is one that obviously comes to mind on the good side. He was great from the get go. Then you have a guy like Vince Young, he played pretty well his rookie year, but tanked it after. He couldn't turn the corner. But let's name a few QB's that started out on the bench because they needed to develop, or started out their career playing just okay football and are now considered some of the greatest QB's of all time. Hmmm.... Brett Favre, Drew Brees, Tom Brady.
So tired of people yelling fire in the crowded theater just because a player starts out slow. When EJ was drafted, the FO said that he would need to develop. He hasn't even started his 2nd season and you are looking for his replacement. Give me a break! Nothing against sharing opinions, but use some logic........PLEASE!
BigPappy
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In 2012 the Redskins drafted RG3 with the 2nd overall pick. With an early 4th round pick they took Kirk Cousins and now it seem they have a pretty good insurance policy in case RG3 does a repeat of last year. If RG3 returns to form this season, then the Skins can probably get a first our early 2nd for Cousins.
There are ways to prepare for a QB not performing up to expectations.
In this year's draft there were some very good mid round prospects that the Bills should have taken a crack at. Aaron Murray went in the 5th, AJ McCarron went in the 5th, Zach Mettenberger went in the 6th round. Why not take a shot at someone just in case EJ fails this season? Then at least you have someone with potential who has been in the system for a year. To me EJ looked very shaky in year one and not having a plan B is a big mistake by Whaley.
Proteus,
I am not sure I understand your logic here. Why take one of these guys when you already have JT of TL in the barn. JT was a prospect player when picked up as a unsigned FA last year. Thad was coming into his second year (or third, i forget), and both now have a full year under the offense. Personally, to me Thad is your guy to come in when your starter gets hurt, he by all accounts thus far, plays better when thrown into the game. He played IMO horribly when he was taking 1st rep snaps after EJ went down. As for JT, last year was his rookie year. As an undrafted FA signing with little to no experience, did we really think he would preform well in his first NFL start. I know I didn't. My point is, we really don't know what we have with JT yet. I am not saying that he will be a great QB, or that he will be a good one for that matter. I'm just a fan, what the hell do i know about assessing his talent. But... he's a 2nd year pro now and by all media accounts anyway...is looking like he is taking that next step in his progression as a QB. So the question is, why waste the draft pick on another "prospect" QB when you already have one maybe two already?
BigPappy
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This guy is full of crap! and a p.o.s.! nothing he say's is ever true and vomits promises out of his mouth that he never follows through on. Not to mention, there is no way he has the cake to put up required to buy the franchise. Also, KDiggz is correct, the lawsuit that is coming his way with the city of Rochester is bad.
He was given huge tax breaks for buying the old Irondequoit Mall for developing. Came up with a grandiose plan to show the public....then nothing happens, for like 2 years. He wasn't even paying the taxes or at least not all of the taxes on the property. His tax payment deadline came and went and the town never saw a dime. And while all this is going on, he says he is having trouble getting financing for the development. So, if the guy can't get financing for a property development project, where in the hell is he coming up with the money to buy an NFL Franchise that will sell in the neighborhood of a BILLION dollars!
PS, I am from Rochester and although I do not live in the town of Irondequite it's a touchy subject for me and thousands of others in my area.....Okay, my rant is over.
BigPappy
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I think the winning bid will be Pegula at 1.35 Billion. I do think that Bon Jovi's group will bid 1.5, but knowing that they are a Toronto group Mary Wilson stays with the local guy and gives it to Pegula.
BigPappy.
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- Jets: Geno Smith is likely a bust. Vick gives them a decent stopgap; but is too old to be a long-term solution.
- Bills: Manuel is also likely a bust. But for now the Bills' front office seems committed to him. The Jets will probably draft a replacement for Geno before the Bills draft a replacement for EJ. This means the Jets may fix their QB problems before we fix ours.
- Cleveland: I've seen maturity and motivation concerns raised regarding Manziel. I personally would have been very cautious about using a first round pick on him. But if I had a 100% guarantee about his maturity and passion for the game, I'd be very intrigued by him as a QB prospect.
- Tennessee: Locker may develop into a decent starting QB.
- Houston: nobody in particular at QB. But at least Houston's front office is hopefully smart enough to realize that, and open to making a move at the first good opportunity.
- Jacksonville: a top-10 pick was recently used on Bortles. Time will tell if that was worthwhile.
- Raiders: Schaub may not be the player he once was, but should be good enough to get them by for now.
- Minnesota: Ponder has sometimes shown signs of being a Drew Brees story. For long periods he let his team down. But then, just when everyone was ready to give up on him, he'd show flashes of being the player they'd hoped he'd become. If he ultimately fails, they always have Bridgewater waiting in the wings.
- Tampa Bay: Glennon had a better rookie year than EJ; and seemed like a more polished player. I suspect he will go on to have the better overall career. Glennon isn't the next Manning or Brady, but he might be the next Neil O'Donnell.
Nice breakdown. Just curious though... why you think EJ and Geno are likely busts after less than 1 season, but Locker after 3 seasons could still develop into a starter (even though his own team doesn't believe that otherwise they would have picked up his 5th yr option based on what QBs are now getting)?
YoloinOhio,
You took the words right out of my mouth.
BigPappy
- Jets: Geno Smith is likely a bust. Vick gives them a decent stopgap; but is too old to be a long-term solution.
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Just looking at Tampa's QB line up makes me want to vomit if I was their coach. But Houston is a very close second. While Fitz is not a stellar QB, he can be serviceable if the Houston O line holds up. If Fitz was not on the team, I would put them ahead of TB in the bad QB line up.
BigPappy
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Sorry, I didn't mean to confuse the issue--I knew what you were saying...jo is saying that I misunderstood his "fixed" post, which is entirely possible given the content.
I happen to agree with everything you wrote...I am myself a business owner and I associate with a fair number of extremely successful entrepreneurs, and you are right IMO.
My Bad Bandit, I must have missed it. Seems most everybody here gets their knickers in a twist when you bring up Donald Trump, the tread is growing to fast to keep up with all the posts.BigPappy
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Here's what I saw:
Changed to:
I read it as this:
"Most successful business men--who have large inheritances--..."
If that's not what you meant, then I suppose it's a moot point. I would've imagine, though, that you'd have pointed that out in response to my initial statement--though I fully understand that it's hard to hit on every point of discussion in a thread like this.
I also don't think I ever discussed debating bankruptcy law...my knowledge of the law is limited to General Municipal Law.
Bandit,
"Most successful business men--who have large inheritances--..." is not what I meant. I actually typed what I meant. Ask any highly successful business man or woman and you would find my statement to be true. I know this because I have seen and heard it said countless times by business owners that make it big.
I am not really sure how you see it relevant that he inherited his money. He attended Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an Ivy league business school. Whether he inherited 200 million or borrowed it from M&T Bank is irrelevent. He still took 200 million dollars and turned it into Billions.
All that said, he really is not my first choice in ownership either. My choices are Jacobs or Golisano.
BigPappy
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Is money your qualifier of intelligence? Seems by this statement that somehow the two must go hand and hand. You must be a real fan of the collective IQ of Paris Hilton, Kanye West and Justin Bieber. Those three must be Einsteins.
Point is that you can be rich and still be a moron, you just have to be good at something. Trump is good at business and self promotion. Still doesn't mean he's not a mouth breather. He may be a real estate mogul by day but at night he's taunting people thru the media like some clown. He doesn't get a pass for being a nut because he's rich, just like Bieber doesn't get a pass for being a douche because he's rich, in my world at least. Truth is that maybe he's not as dumb as he acts, maybe it's just part of his self promotion. Maybe suing Bill Maher to prove that his mother isn't really an orangutan was just another self promotion, or maybe he really wants the world to know his mom was a human and Bill Maher was wrong. Either way it's moronic.
Hazed,
While I understand the point you are trying to make, your examples are poor when comparing them to Trump. Furthermore, I think you were missing point of his comment.
Firstly, I would say that comparing Donald Trump to Paris Hilton, Kanye West and Justin Bieber is just plain silly. Paris Hilton has done nothing but live off the wealth of her family. Some may say, well gee she created her own clothing line and stared on a reality show and yada yada yada. To those who would I say bull S*it! She got the reality star for acting like a rich jack hole living an out of control life style, and the young public eats that stuff up. Networks want to make money, and people can't help but watch when they know the car wreck will come and its only a matter of when. As for her clothing line, she does not make cloths! I will repeat that, She DOES NOT make clothing. She is paid by a clothing manufacturer to put her name on a label.
I will group Kanye West and Justin Bieber together since they are both musical artist and I use that term loosely cause imo they suck. Again, how do you compare two people who stand up on a stage and sing for a living to someone who has continued to build wealth through real estate and other business ventures. You can't.
You are correct when you say any idiot can be a millionaire or even a billionaire. That said, you would have served your point better by siting people like John D Rockefeller and Henry Ford. Both were poorly educated with no backgrounds of business or economics, but built enormous wealth in business and didn't do it standing on a stage singing and grabbing their crotch.
Arguably, you missed the point of his post. He can correct me if I am wrong and if I am wrong I apologize, but I think he was trying to say was that you can't build as much wealth as Trump has and be an idiot, especially in the manor in which he has done it.
As a side note, using the term "Poorly educated" does not make you an idiot, and i was not trying to make any connections between the two. I used John D Rockefeller or Henry Ford as examples due to the simple fact that they built a business through hard work and dedication to what they were trying to achieve, not because they were good at something.
Flame away everyone.
BigPappy
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Does bankruptcy count as failure?
Sorry, most successful business men....or women would say no, it is not failure. It is merely a set back.
BigPappy
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Bills trade-up with St. Louis and with the second selection in the 2014 NFL Draft select:
Johnny Manzeil, Quarterback Texas A&M
Huge upside, also give Bills insurance if EJ Manuel doesn't progress or remains injury prone. You need a back up plan at this position or we will continue our 15 year rebuilding plan.
Sorry, but I would bet the Farm and all it's cattle that this DOES NOT happen. For better or worse this team is all in this year on EJ. If they take a QB it's in round 3 - 7.
BigPappy
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The only way we trade up is if Clowney or Mack fall to around the 5th slot. Even then I just don't see D.W. trading up. If Mack is there at 9 we will grab him. Clowney will definitely be gone before the 9th pick. If both are gone, we trade down to 17 with the ravens and pick up an extra 2nd and 3rd\4th rounder and we pick Ebron or the best OT available. Everyone is high on picking a WR, but I think Marrone and D.W are happy with their receivers and will at least for the 1st round not be looking in that direction.
BigPappy
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I'll address each position you mentioned...
Tight End - One of the few holes I believe they have. However, I don't think Ebron is worth the #9 overall pick, especially since you can get a quality tight end like ASJ, Amaro or Niklas in the 2nd round.
Offensive Tackle - Maybe. Cordy Glenn is already a top-10 LT in the league and I only think he is going to get better. We could obviously use an upgrade at RT, but you can get one in the later rounds. Marrone is supposedly an offensive line-guru. If we believe this to be true, then he should be able to make a solid starter out of a mid-round pick.
Linebacker - We already have Alonso, Spikes, Bradham and Manny Lawson. I wouldn't consider the position a major need.
Defensive Tackle - Kyle Williams, Dareus, Allen Branch, Corbin Bryant. Not a hole at all.
Quarterback - Ask me after the season. EJ showed enough under very difficult circumstances with injuries, lack of practice time, etc. that I don't think you can consider the position a true need until you see a full (hopefully) season this year.
I agree with some of what you say her Lt Dan. I am not convinced that Ebron is worthy of a #9 over all either. In my earlier posts I actually said that I thought we would trade down and pick up Ebron in the pick 15 or 16 area. I also agree with you on Cordy. He is definitely a stud player and he will get better yet and we could pick up a quality OT in the 2nd or even the 3rd rounds. I am also with you on the QB situation with the "ask me again after the season" quote. He has talent for sure. Arm strength, fast with his feet and he's smart. I just want to see it come together this year for him to be convinced he's the guy. But here is where we start to differ in opinion. Bradham is an unknown still. He has talent for sure, but i don't think he's in the top level LB. As for Spikes, there is nothing to prove that he is anything more than a 3rd down rusher and instead of the 3 down lb that we need. As for the DT, Dareus is looking at possibly being suspended for 4 games with his arrest, and Allen Branch is almost 30 and a mid level guy at best. Only 8 sacks in his career.
Everyone is entitled to opinion and everyone has one. FWIW, this is mine. I am not a Football expert by any means, like many of you I just love football.
BigPappy
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Well said. There really aren't that many holes on this team right now...
Not that many holes? TE, OT, LB, DT, and many would argue QB. Not me as of yet, but many would. That is 4 possibly 5 depending on your view point. Then add WR as many claim is also a hole. That makes 5 possibly 6 roster spots that we are missing key players. I call that a lot of holes.
Ramius, you are correct. Just because I myself or any other person on this board say there are a lot of holes to fill, it doesn't mean the Bills organization believes that this is the case. But it also doesn't mean their right.
BigPappy
This team was 6-10 last season. I just don't believe its 1 superstar player away, a WR at that, from turning that to 10-6 and challenging the Patriots for the AFC East. If Bills management believes that there's a serious disconnect from reality. Also, we need to factor in the moves the other 3 teams have made. Just like the Bills, they've added some players via free agency so from that perspective I suspect they all feel they've improved their rosters. So the target is always moving. Lets say for the sake of discussion the Bills move up and take Watkins, give up some choices, and for the 2 games they play New England Revis covers Watkins and takes him out of the gameplan. Now what? What's your new superstar WR doing for your offense? And no upgrade at ROT or TE because you've surrendered those picks to move up.
I just think there are so many examples where a team gave away lots of picks and assets to move up and hindsight shows it to be the team trading down that benefited most. Sure there might be situations where moving up and giving up a lot of assets worked and I'm sure somebody can think of a couple.
Some poor moves I can think of:
Atlanta traded up to take Julio Jones. Sure he's a dynamic receiver but it didn't get them to the SuperBowl
DItka bet the farm on Ricky WIlliams with the Saints. That move didn't do much for the Saints and got Mike fired.
Minnesota trades picks and players to Dallas for Herchel Walker. Worked out great for the Cowboys but not so much for the Vikings.
Washington moves up to pick RG3. Cost the Redskins the 2nd overall pick this year along with a few other picks and they are now a team with a new coach with lots of questions about the 'franchise' guy they moved up to get.
Well said All Pro!
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I like Watkins too and I see the value of adding a potential 'star' player but I don't share the level of optimism with the idea of trading up held by a lot of proponents of the idea. I pray they don't move up and either stay where they are or trade down a couple spots and pick up a few more picks.
I think its a severe miscalculation to believe adding Watkins to the Bills offense (which is probably a 100% sure thing to be a big upgrade) at the cost of possibly surrendering a 2nd and 3rd rounder (depending on how far up you need to move) is going to put the Bills over the top and in a position to challenge New England for the division title. And in my view that's got to be the goal, to knock the Pats out of the top spot in the division. Adding one WR at the expense of not addressing other needs with 2/3 round picks will more or less guarantee a 3rd or 4th place finish.
This team needs to hit on finding starters with their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks or if possible trading back and getting another 2nd or 3rd in the process. Trading up to get that one guy is a mistake a lot of teams make every year. Believing they are one player away from becoming very competitive when in reality they are many players short. The only position I would even contemplate doing this for would be to get a franchise QB and I don't see the Bills moving up to get a QB here.
I have to agree with you All Pro. We just have too many holes to fill to be competitive and betting valuable draft picks to grab Watkins isn't something I see D.W. doing. We have a boat load of really good, fast receivers for EJ.
Unless Mack is available at 9 by some miracle I see us trading down 6 or 7 slots and picking up and extra 2nd and 3rd round pick and then grab Ebron is Round 1 and an OT and LB in Round 2. I know Ebron is a top tier TE but I think he will still be available at pick 15 or 16.
FWIW IMHO
BigPappy
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given his political leanings, i'm guessing that it involves trump, assorted lotions and massive amounts of regret.
Now that there was funny!
BigPappy
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The deepest Draft in recent memory and we are going to give up #41? Ugh...I HATE that idea...Hate, hate, hate it...
This Times a 1000. I will not say that there is no way that Whaley does something that stupid and gives up our second round pick when we have some many needs, but I will say its highly unlikely. We already have the mother load in receivers. Yes some are un proven yet, but their coming into their sophomore year of pro ball and should take that next step in their game and so should EJ.
IMHO i think the smart play is Ebron or an OT at 9 unless by some miracle Clowney is still there. Not that I think he will be, but if he is you have to grab him.
BigPappy
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Really? So far the value is only about 830 mill (waiting for new value to be determined). So if they are worth say 850 Mill and someone offers 1 Billion and that can't get it done, the I cant see them getting sold.
Forbes valued the Bills at 870 million this past August so 1 billion should be a reasonably strong bid I would think (15% over valuation).
The estimated value of a product has nothing and I mean nothing to do with how much that product sells for. Value is placed by the buyer, and how badly he wants to buy the product. Especially in a unique market like the NFL. The Browns sold for 1 Billion dollars! The BROWNS! Granted we feed off the same bottom they do currently, but I thing we are in better shape financially, and well as our front office. My point is, This team will not sell for anything near its "Estimated Value". Several have stated the number 1.25 Billion, and in my humble opinion, it's probably in the ball park of close.
As far as the OP's initial comments, while I believe that your friend told you this information and he believes it to be true, it's more likely that the Bon Jovi financial team is putting out dis information just to get an idea as to where other potential bidders are in their bids, and your friend has been fed the information for this purpose. if they can get any of them to bite and go public with what they are going to start their bidding at all the better for them.
BigPappy
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Will the math whizzes on here let us know the probability of winning? I have got to think it is like less than a .0000X percent chance.
From the official rules of the contest:
"Who May Enter: Contest is open only to legal U.S. residents of New York, Ohio, or Pennsylvania or legal residents of Ontario (Canada), who are aged 18 or older as of date of entry and who have a valid driver’s license or government issued I.D. (the “Registrant,” “Entrant,” or “Contestant”)..."
This actually increases your chances of winning JR since you wont be competing with all of the continental United States especially if they really would be giving the tix to the one that comes closest if no one gets them all correct.
BigPappy
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I'd rather have Bon Jovi. Trump is a freaking !@#$. I don't think he would have any qualms about moving the team at his first opportunity. Like others have said, I also have doubts as to whether the other NFL owners would approve him.
My first option (of the known people who might be candidates) is Pegula.
I agree with you. The issue i have with Bon Jovi is his close relationship with the Rogers family. I could see him and his group of owners moving up to Toronto and I for one definitely don't want to see that happen. I would rather see the Bills go anywhere other then Toronto if it came down to the Team leaving.
BigPappy
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I think its most likely a smokescreen. If not its Robinson,Clowney or Mack.
I think your right. It's a smokescreen. I just don't see Whaley spending picks to move 8 spaces. If anything with as deep is this draft is, he will want to move back and pick up an extra pick in round 2 or 3. Both Whaley and Nix before him have said they wont give away picks to move up. I just don't see this happening. period. JMO though.
BigPappy
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$6 a wing
$5 blue cheese.
$4 napkin
Having Duff's Wings at a Bills Football game.....Priceless!
BigPappy
Okay...if not EJ, then who?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I would have to say yes. Despite what anyone thinks location is not a factor when a player is a FA. There are 2 reasons a player agrees to sign with a team in FA. Money, and surrounding talent. You can offer a guy sick amounts of money, but if he knows he is going to be on a loosing team because a lack of talent to compete he's not signing with your team, not unless the money is obscene like what Mario got.
At the same time, take a FA player that just won the Super Bowl. You know the talent level on the team is there,,,,I mean, you just won the Super Bowl! You don't offer enough cash for him to stay, say goodbye, cause he will be gone.
BigPappy