The Voice of Truth
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Posts posted by The Voice of Truth
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Those teams you speak of are either very good teams (Packers) or great teams (Broncos, Pats).
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You could have said this in 2002, 2006, 2008, 2011, and this season. Doesn't matter how much talent you've got if the coaches can't use it effectively.
Who on this team isn't living up to their potential statistically? Our team's talent has been used effectively. Other than Spiller, maybe.
On another note, Marrone gets no credit for the defense but all the blame for the offense. Marrone hired two very good coordinators. Does that not count for something? He should get credit for the defense. And, it's not like he has no say in the defense even after hiring those coordinators.
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Analytics matter. In a league where talent levels are fairly even, and close games are the norm, strategic game management based on mathematically valid analytics, vs the "gut feeling" of a coach can often spell the difference between a win or loss. Marrone does have his strengths as a head coach, but he pays lip service to analytics, and consistently ignores them and goes with his gut and "experience". He is so often wrong, and it costs the Bills dearly.
Analytics screams out that with the rules changes the NFL has made, this a pass first, pass happy league. The passing game sets up the running game, not vice versa. Yet the Bills have strived all year to be a run first, "balanced" offense, with the intent to set up the passing game with the run. It's been a very predictable failure. If the league passes rule after rule to encourage the pass, and passes no rules to help the running game, it's the height of stupidity to keep emphasizing the run. Finally yesterday, the Bills gave in, with many passes on first down and an overall emphasis on the passing game. And surprise surprise, the running game finally started to click. The passing game set up the running game.
Analytics screams out that on that 4th and inches in the fourth quarter the correct call is to go for it. And Marrone, ever scornful of analytics, but enamored with his gut feelings, declines to do so. The percentages of making a first down there are extremely high, but hey, why pay attention to statistics when your one and half years of experience as an NFL coach tells you to (once again) punt.
The strategic game management has been awful all year, and yesterday was an example of how costly it can be. Hey the Bills may have lost anyway, but bad decisions limit their options and reduce their chances of winning
I really agree with you on how huge game management and tactics are in a game. They are crucial. I get infuriated when coaches mismanage games. I do not even do this in hindsight. I can see their mistakes as they are making them in real time. So I am fully on board with your point of strategy matters and analytics really matter.
I'm not sure about the exact scenario you are talking about though. I agreed with the punt. One thing about analytics is it uses data from teams across the entire league etc. It does not factor in what has happened in the game that is being played. It does not factor in personnel matchups and what teams strengths are. For example, yesterday, our defense was suffocating the Chiefs. They were really struggling to move the ball. I don't think it is unreasonable for a coach to say, "Our defense has been stopping them all day. Punt it away and we'll get the ball back. We don't want to risk 40 yards of field position."
Again, I agree with your point as a whole. I don't know if yesterday's example is the best one to drive your point home though.
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A good team will take this awful loss and use it as fuel to absolutely destroy Miami and go on a tear down the stretch.
Hope this happens!
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Good post and it's also fairly accurate in my view. This is a very talented team, with arguably the most talented roster the Bills have compiled in a decade. There's depth, real skill position players, a true difference maker on offense in Watkins and a bevy of difference makers on the defensive side of the ball. Schwartz has improved on the foundation that Pettine built and, even without Kiko, has elevated this defense to "special".
In years past, the Bills lost close games they had no business winning in the first place. Games against superior opponents who came back to snatch victory at the last moments stung, but this one was different for the reasons you stated: the Bills were the better team on Sunday. In almost every area, the difference in talent was undeniable.
I'm not as on board with St. Doug and Hackett as you, but I do think there's something to be gained from continuity and expect both Doug and Whaley to be back in '15. 3-1 was what was needed in this quarter of the season and it's still reachable, albeit much tougher with this loss. Thursday night gets us to 6-4, matching our win total from last year with 6 games to play. That's all I'm focused on right now because this league is week to week, what we think holds true today in terms of the AFC playoff picture most likely won't be true in three weeks time.
Glad to see others are making the same observations. We do have a good team and I'm glad there are fans out there that can see beyond the loss.
In terms of Hackett and Marrone, I am not yet fully on board. I am leaning towards endorsing Marrone at this point. I am also leaning pretty strongly towards endorsing Whaley. He had a very good offseason in my view. Back to Marrone though; I think he can handle a head coaching position in this league. He does not seem in over his head. I like that he delegates duties and is not a control freak. There is enough decision making on the head coach during a game. You don't need to add play calling duties to that. From what I have seen, he has demonstrated consistently that he has common sense. Oddly enough, I think a decent number of head coaches do not have this. They cannot see the forest for the trees they are so wrapped up in details. Marrone does have common sense. He makes changes that are obviously needed.
Al that being said, I have witnessed some very poor clock management situations with Marrone. This is what holds me back from a full endorsment.
Overall though, I am just pleased our team is good again finally.
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Anybody can overreact to the loss yesterday. The real story is we played extremely well. We dominated the game. A couple freakish plays screwed us. That's the truth. The coaches had a great game plan and made good decisions in terms of managing the game. Despite it not panning out, they did all the right things. The players were motivated and played well. Sometimes you just get screwed and that's what happened yesterday.
For the first time in a long time we have a good team. Yesterday and this year has reminded me of the Wade Phillips era. We're a team that can move the ball and stop others from moving the ball. The loss yesterday was only devastating because of how much we dominated the game. It was abundantly clear we were the better team yesterday. The Chiefs are a physical playoff team and we manhandled them.
Our defense is dominant. The front four wreaks havoc every week and seems to only be getting better. Our linebacking core has turned into a strength as well. Spikes has been better than advertised. Preston Brown (rookie) is coming into his own. Nigel Bradham is a beast. And we don't even have Kiko in there. Our secondary is solid at worst.
The offense is productive enough to win. Kyle Orton has certainly been an upgrade. Is he Peyton or Brady? Of course not. Has he been solid, hitting NFL throws with a decent level of consitency? Yes. Our skill positions on offense are very good. They just need a QB who can get the ball in their hands with room to make plays. Orton can do this. At times he looks very good even. Of course he does have some misses. Any QB who is not super elite has these. He is solid. He's a calm leader. He has good demeanor and pretty good ability as a player. Watkins is clearly a beast. I do think injuries have hampered him a bit from fully blossoming. Woods is a very good player. Chandler is a huge target, decent run blocker. Hogan could be the solid route runner who is always in the right place that QBs depend on. Jackson and Spiller are a good duo, but I think Brown and Dixon can carry the load just fine too. So, we're deep at running back.
And the biggest thing is I think our GM and Coach could be pretty good. Whaley made a high number of moves this offseason. Many of them have panned out. I'm pleased with the Watson move at this point.
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Throw Robert Woods in there. His production has not yet shown is capability. I think he has the potential to be an animal. Great route runner. Mean. Fiery competitor. High level athleticism even for NFL standards. Can play multiple WR spots. Watkins and Woods were two great draft picks.
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I actually think Chip Kelly has found a system that many QBs can thrive in. I think he has come up with an idea that solves the "you have to find a franchise QB" problem. You don't need it in his system. They only run a limited number of plays so this takes a lot of the cognitive load off of the QB. They don't need to be thinking like crazy on the field. Also, they only have to master a limited number of throws. Foles may be good but I think his success is more a result of Chip Kelly's offensive design and not his ability.
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I have no problem with the amount we are running the ball. But I do have a problem with how obvious we are with it. I can't remember the last counter, screen, or sweep we ran. I get it, NFL defenders are fast, but c'mon.
Screens offset the blitz and pressure
Counters prevent over-pursuing
Sweeps mix up the run defensive looks
The Pats made us look stupid with all the misdirection. We are very transparent with our playcalling. Fortunately, we have some real playmakers getting it done for us.
We won by 20!
Good call man.
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Its time to know who the real Buffalo Bills are THIS WEEK!
Ive had some good discussion on the shout box where certain members kept saying the Jets are terrible and Geno is the worse QB in the League. A poster even told me that there was no way in hell the Bills were going to lose to the 1-6 Jets.
Lets revisit the Jets: 1-6 record. They have played against the Raiders and won, then look at this schedule: Packers( 5-2), Bears(3-4), Lions (5-2), Chargers( 5-3), Broncos (6-1) and Patriots (5-2). The Jets have played against teams that are fighting for Playoffs and or SB contenders.
Lets revisit the Bills: OT win in Chicago, Great win vs Dolphins, Loss to Chargers, Loss to Houston, Win over Detroit (where the FG kicker went 0-3), Loss to Patriots, Win over Vikings on a last second TD.
A win is a win is a win...however, the Bills could have easily been 1-6 as well if not for Fredex in game 1, a shi.t kicker vs Detroit, and a great 4th and 20 against the Viks.
The point Im trying to make is that the Bills and Forum members cannot take this game lightly. The Jets have been blown out in 1 only game vs the Chargers.
The Bills franchise is like a prom date, Shell go out with you to the ball, but at the end of the night, shes makin love to some other guy. She'll rip your heart out and throw it away. The next day she will call to apologize and you will accept it over and over and over. ( maybe even for 14 years )
IN conclusion, Tomorrow, we will see who the Bills really are.
Cheers,
Curitiba to the Playoffs in 2014
( BTW, the Bills are 3 point dogs...how can that be against a 1-6 team? ....TREAD LIGHTLY MY FRIENDS, TREAD LIGHTLY!!! )
I feel like I hear this every week. Every week the team reveals itself. This week is no different. I am pretty concerned about this game though.
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Completely agree. We have also let some guys move on who turned out to be overpaid at the new gig. I just want us to be one of the smart teams who knows who to keep and who to let walk if the price gets too high. I'm not smart enough to decide that. We all have opinions, but I have to put my trust in WHALEY. First time in a long time I've felt good about the front office.
I agree. Whaley has done great. He did let Byrd walk though. However his acquisition of Hughes for Shepherd was brilliant. Overall his batting average on his acquisitions is quite good. I'm pleased with him at this point too.
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Well, you're entitled to your feelings. But missing an important part of the NFL reality won't win for you in the long run. You might be willing to have the highest paid player at every position, but it doesn't work that way. The tricky part is being smart enough to know which players you NEED to sign and for how much. We agree, pay Hughes. I recognize there is a limit we have to live with. That's the reason it's difficult and we aren't qualified to decide, despite our love for the team.
Fair enough. I'm just tired of the Bills being a farm team for other NFL teams. We draft, develop and let walk. We have not been close to the cap for a number of years. During this time we have let players walk who were productive. Unacceptable.
In regards to your edit. The NFL is a win now league. Yeah, when the reality is you literally can't spend anymore or you're over the cap, then you have to stop. That's when you stop. I don't want to hear, well we might need that cap room in 5 years so we're not going to sign our players.
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I'm not worried about the owners being willing to spend. I'm far more concerned about managing the cap. When you have a lot of good players that gets tricky. It's been a long time since that was a big issue.
I will not allow the new regime to pull the wool over our eyes and say "we're managing the cap". At some point, if we continue to sign our performing players that might become a problem. It will be a bit until then. SIGN HUGHES and continue to resign our good players. Other teams way out spend us every year. I don't want to hear about the cap.
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I think this is a big test for the new owners. If they don't fork over the dough for a very productive DE in the prime of his career, I will lose a significant amount of faith in the new owners. RESIGN HUGHES!
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That's the weird thing to me. Did Chris Williams going down cause the whole OL to collapse? Seems ridiculous on its face. And they played pretty well as a unit vs. Miami too. So I guess there's some hope the current starters can pull it together enough to be at least acceptable till we get some new bodies next year.
Yeah I thought we looked good in the Miami game too. At that time I felt like the O-Line was a strong point on the team. Our current lineup is very young and according to scouts have high upside. Like some others have said, these might be some growing pains along the way to an elite unit that can be around for years. That might be the hope of the front office and coaching staff. We'll see what ends up becoming the reality.
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I remember week 1, I felt like the O-Line looked very good. I'm not sure what happened. I feel like we have decent talent there. I do think we've faced some very tough defensive fronts so far.
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Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on Orton?
I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How Kyle did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate)
TOTAL PASS PLAYS - 44 snaps ( last week was 45 .. so much for being a run first team)
LINE BREAKDOWN - 14 snaps or 31% of pass plays ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and Kyle did not have much of a chance.. last week was 29% so pass protect was actually slightly worse this week)
SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 30 snaps or 69% of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and Kyle had time to throw). One caveat here... in some cases it was difficult to determine if it was a called short throw or a dump down due to pressure.
UNFORCED KYLE ERRORS - 6 snaps or 20% of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as Kyle having time and having unforced accuracy issues... last week with EJ it was 11 or 34%)
Bottom Line - The O Line was just as bad this week as last week in pass protect.. however.. Orton handled it very well for the most part. He made several plays where pass protect broke down and he took a hit but delivered accurately. One of the unforced errors was his INT.. another was the throw to Watkins in the 4th qtr that was far behind him but he tipped it to himself and caught it anyway. Of the 6 unforced errors only 2 were egregiously off target. Orton typically stepped forward in the pocket to avoid edge rushers and rarely scrambled horizontally. I also saw zero drops...
To sum it up..I would attribute poor Offensive Play fault the following way - 60% O Line/ 25% Hackett/ 15% Orton
Awesome insights man. Keep it up!
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I can guarantee that there are several coaching staffs in the NFL that could properly utilize Spiller's talent. Yes he is not a good power runner, but there are plays for him to make if it can just be schemed properly.
I agree. Chan Gailey was one of them. He was averaging like 7 yards per touch. All people on this board did was complain saying, "HE'S AVERAGING 7 YARDS PER TOUCH. GIVE HIM THE BALL MORE!!!!"
Little did they know that he was getting the 7 yards per touch because of his limited touches and how he was being used when he did get touches. I say let Fred and Bryce Brown (yes put him in the 53 man roster, find someone to eliminate), run between the tackles. Use Spiller in unique ways.
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Excellent!
A free cigar in every box!
Haha. Absolutely! We should team up to market this.
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Dude is the man. Here's my play on his name. Kyle Orton just KO'd the the Lions #1 Defense. The. Next Flute Flakes. KOs cereal haha.
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Fred Jackson. 3 yard run.
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Still suffering from th Chris Brown effect? I was a sucker once too.
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Please do nizot blow
My heart will be ripped out
Blizzards let it snow
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Read my signature. He's under appreciated by fans IMO.
Bills Coaches Sleep Overnight at OBD After Loss to KC
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I applaud them. I'm disappointed everyone is mocking them.