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Rocky Landing

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Posts posted by Rocky Landing

  1. 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

     

     

    @BillsFanForever19 is one of the homers who wants to shout down the discussion.    It's like stages of grief for them.   I think they've all tried the same tactics.   Make ridiculous statements.........question people's fandom.........question the thread.   Idiots gonna' idiot.   

     

    There are no simple answers on this WR issue.  On paper, it's ugly.

     

    1) Could this be the year that they finally have a true breakout star at WR?   Coleman?  But there has NEVER been one in 6 years with Josh Allen.  

     

    2) Is this year that a WR that showed great promise in limited exposure like Shakir is able to do the same as a full time starter?   Didn't happen with any of the predecessors.

     

    3) To points 1 and 2.........Everybody who's approached 1,000 yards with Allen had been an 800-1,000 yard receiver elsewhere prior to that in the NFL.

     

    4)  Is this the year that a dumpster dive receiver turns his career around with Allen?   They are batting .000 on those under Beane.  

     

     

    On paper (all we really have at this time of year) it is ugly. But not nearly as ugly as you're painting it!

     

    To your points:

    1) Robert Foster, who absolutely crapped out of the league within three years, had 541 yards receiving in his rookie year under Allen. On the other side of that coin, as has been stated numerous times in this thread, numerous receiver's yards increased significantly under Allen. Diggs' production jumped from 1,130 yards in Min, to 1,535 under Allen in his first season. Diggs went from the 44th ranked WR in '19 in Minnesota, to the #1 ranked WR in '20. Khalil Shakir's numbers jumped from 161 yards in his '22 rookie season, to 611 in '23. And that was as a #3WR. And if you don't want to accept any of those examples as "breakout star" numbers, then you will also have to admit that what you want to define as a "breakout star" doesn't occur on a team that already has an elite star like Stefon Diggs, who was ranked 1st, 9th, 4th, and 7th in his four years in Buffalo, respectively.

     

    2) This is a pretty convoluted standard, and "showed great promise" is utterly subjective. Could you say that Cole Beasley, who never started more than six games in a season (and only once) in seven years in Dallas "showed great promise" before becoming the Bills' starting #2WR? 

     

    3) This is the most pessimistic part of your post. The Bills have had a 1,000+ yard WR every year since '19-- Allen's second season. I'm not going to dig into every year since then, but two teams had more than one WR with 1,000+ yards last season: Miami (Hill, Waddle), and Philadelphia (AJ Brown, DaVonte Smith). Hill, and Brown obviously had 1,000+ yard seasons before arriving at their current teams. Waddle was drafted 6th overall, and Smith was drafted 10th overall. 

     

    But what really makes this non-point utterly pessimistic is that it completely ignores the jump in production that numerous WRs have made under Allen by applying an arbitrary metric. 

     

    4) We all know what you mean by a "dumpster dive receiver." Unfortunately, I don't believe there are any sites that post stat-lines for "dumpster dive receivers." But, there have been WRs, who had some level of production under Allen, whom once they left, went straight into the dumpster. McKenzie went from 482 yards in '22, to 81 yards in '23. I guess we can all watch what kind of numbers Davis puts up in Jax.

  2. 2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

    This thread has long gone off the rails. Look, I'm not saying it's unfair to question how he decided to address the room. Nor am I saying you should blindly support it with zero question as to it succeeding.

     

    But this is 60+ pages of largely just that. People wanting to get their receipts in that it surely will fail to claim supremacy that they were right. Or people wanting to get their receipts in to show that they never questioned his decisions to be able to claim supremacy that *they* were right. People on one side arguing with people on the other side, minds made up.

     

    Ultimately, the room is what it is. He built this room as best that he could in according to the vision that he had and the assets available to him, navigating the curveball thrown by Diggs. It may succeed. It may fail. We don't know.

     

    But arguing back and forth over "woulda, coulda, shoulda's" or blind support is moot. It doesn't change what the makeup of the room is and has no effect on whether it will succeed or fail. Whichever side you land on, you may be right or you may be wrong.

     

    But let's stop essentially calling each other idiots and let it play out before we proclaim it a success or a failure. None of us have a Crystal ball.

    With due respect, I don't really agree with you. I think it's been a pretty decent discussion, and quite a few good points brought up. There has perhaps been too much redundancy, and the intransigence has been a bit annoying. But, WR is the biggest issue on this team right now, and while you certainly could pare 60 pages down to about fifteen, or so, nobody beats a dead horse like TBD.

     

    The funniest thing about this thread is that it started with a basically ridiculous take, that included words like, "...but you can argue he's [MVS] the reason KC won the SB." (I'm as much of a homer as anyone, but c'mon!) 

     

    Honestly, I wish there were a thread like this for the D-line.

  3. I wouldn’t bother listening to the press-talk Diggs’ current QB has to say about him— of course he’s going to talk him up. 
     

    Still, I don’t think he really “lost a step.”  Maybe a certain amount of motivation. But for Beane, moving on from him now meant that he could get value for him. It’s frustrating to think that the FO is building for 2025, but this season shouldn’t be written off, as the OP seems to suggest. 

  4. These are the things Brandon Beane thinks about. One could argue that the O-line is as important as the WR corps. If people are disappointed with how Beane has built the WR room, he has at least built a deep O-line.

     

    Spencer Brown has also been a great teammate, and that goes back to his time at N. Iowa. But, he has been hampered throughout his career (including college) with injuries. That will likely drive his value down a little bit, and hopefully we can afford him. I suspect he would love to stay in Buffalo-- that's the kind of teammate he is.

  5. This video seems like a fair assessment, more or less. 8-9 with a healthy Josh Allen does seem pretty unlikely, but there is a lot that can fall apart on this team, and lots of "ifs." And that's why they call it "the floor," anyway. It's not likely to happen, but it could... 

     

    But, I'm sorry, 11-6 as their ceiling? A tad low. 13-4 is at least as likely as 8-9. 

     

     

    • Agree 1
  6. 1 minute ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

     

    So . . . you believe that even if the WR corps gets off to a rough start, it's unlikely to have a rocky landing? 😮

    Nice one. To be clear, I don't think our WR room is better than it was last season-- not without Diggs, or someone of his caliber. But if he was still a Bill, or if we had acquired an elite WR, then this room would be rock solid, IMO.

    • Like (+1) 1
  7. 4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

     

    Here is what you are agreeing with:

     

    "Bottom line, not only is expecting the group to rank higher by seasons end not unreasonable, it’s statistically the most probable outcome based on history of all receivers and weapons that play with Josh Allen." 

     

    Then you are wrong too.  More of these individuals in question have not exceeded expectations than have.   By a substantial margin.

     

    That's not a criticism of Josh Allen.

     

    Nor is it a "line of reasoning".

     

    Attributing someone else's quote to me is just gaslighting. Be that as it may...

     

    That phrase "exceeded expectations" is is too vague in this context to really be meaningful. Was Diggs, Beasley, or Brown expected to have their best career numbers as soon as they came to Buffalo? Was fourth round pick, Gabe Davis expected to become the #2WR for three seasons? (And will he meet expectations in Jax?) Was UDFA Foster expected to have the rookie season he did? Was Knox expected to become a legit receiver, after being a blocking TE in college? For that matter, was Shakir, with his tiny little arms, expected to finish the season the way he did? Harty was expected to be a P/KR, and he was.

     

    You have stated that the Bills WRs are expected to be 27th in the league, and the receivers are expected to be 24th. I have presented arguments for why I believe it is very likely they will finish the season ranked higher, and I stand by that.

     

    But I want to ask you again: Do you honestly believe that Josh Allen doesn't elevate the performance of his WRs?

    • Like (+1) 2
  8. 50 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

     

     

    Again this was EXACTLY what you said so cut the "not even remotely close to what I said" bullish!t :doh::

     

    "Bottom line, not only is expecting the group to rank higher by seasons end not unreasonable, it’s statistically the most probable outcome based on history of all receivers and weapons that play with Josh Allen." 

     

    I underlined it for you this time.   Maybe that will help. ;)

     

    I gave you a paragraph full of "weapons" who have had disappointing seasons and/or failed to perform to expectations with Josh Allen.  

     

    Clay, Benjamin, Foster(year 2), Davis(3 years), Knox(multiple years), McKenzie(Lil' Dummy phase), Brown and Beasley(aside from one season each), Sanders, Sherfield, Harty........    

     

    Some of those guys were "starters" or expected to become(or remain) "starters" and impact players.

     

    That's a lot more "history" than Diggs and one season each of Brown/Beasley.  Fact.

     

    I can't agree with this line of reasoning at all. UDFA Foster, who utterly tanked with Washington his third year, and is now out of the NFL, underperformed with Allen??? Fourth round Gabe Davis underperformed with Allen? Knox, who never caught a TD in his entire college career has underperformed with Allen? McKenzie? Have you looked at his numbers since he left Buffalo for the Colts? Of course, Brown and Beasley underperformed... except when they didn't. 

     

    Are you honestly saying that Josh Allen doesn't elevate his WRs?

    • Like (+1) 1
  9. 2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

     

     

    Again.........everything is an "unknown".    You can't advance a point or be predictive if you dismiss likelihoods in favor of well it's all "unknown".    

     

    Half the teams in the NFL picked a WR in the first 2 days of the draft for chrissakes.   7 of them BEFORE the Bills.   The Bills are by no means unique in regard to having a rookie that they hope could start right away but for some reason this is supposed to be a compelling point of evidence why the Bills are underrated?   Because they got the 8th WR off the board? :doh:   

     

    And the 24th "weapons" ranking on ESPN doesn't necessarily imply that ALL of the Bills key players are "not very good"..........it's how they are expected to rank against peers.    As I've said many times,   the league is absolutely LOADED with talented receiving threats.   Look at the actual lists and if you don't know who the opposing players are then look up their production and objectively compare it to things like Kincaid averaging a pathetic 9 yards per catch on a healthy 90 targets and explain to me why it's unrealistic how the Bills targets are being characterized.  

     

    Also,  note that @Rocky Landing says that it's VERY likely that they rank higher.   I disagreed.  You are attributing his words to me.   But the larger point is that there isn't data that suggests it's likely let alone VERY likely.   That's all we can work off of.   It's not about your offseason "feels".

    I strongly suspect that these pre-season rankings lack quite a bit of context. And, of course, post-season rankings are based on the season's production-- no additional context necessary. But, there is real data to suggest that Josh Allen will elevate the WR room's production, just as he did in 2020. So, the question to be considered is how much of this contextual data, and unknowns (Allen's ability to elevate WR play, the TEs, and RBs drawing coverage, etc) are being considered by ESPN's, and other analysts rankings? 

     

    I have to believe that a ranking that places the Bills' WRs at 27th is primarily based on stacking up the individual performances of the group, and would include very little context beyond that. And that's fine. (It's certainly not good news.) But, this methodology, in the case of the Bills, and in my admittedly optimistic view, lowers the ranking, and is not a good speculative metric. I would bet money that at the end of the season, this group will not rank 27th, or lower in production. 

  10. 7 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

    Most important skillsets are ability to separate (not necessarily speed) and getting the 50/50 balls. And honestly, both of these were my biggest frustration these past few years. I think we're better in both areas this coming season.

    I would put catch %, and a low drop-rate above the 50/50 balls. I would put route running, and versatility above that as well. For example, I'd rather have Coleman be able to run a proper fade, than rely on a contested catch. YAC's pretty important, also-- and something we've lacked from some of our receivers.

     

    It's an interesting discussion, though. I wonder how some of our other, illustrious contributors prioritize a WR's skillsets?

    • Like (+1) 1
  11. 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

     

     

     

    1) I'm not saying it's an apples-to-apples comparison or conclusive proof I am just saying you can't dismiss out-of-hand that the Bills weapons were among the elite...........which saying "nah" kinda' does.   Their WR corps was the most productive and their overall "receiving corps" of WR/RB/TE rank was top 3 in both total receiving yards and TD's.   Does a great QB like Allen elevate those players to some extent?   Sure,  but there were A LOT of other great QB's in 2020.   Rodgers, Mahomes, Brady all could have been MVP in addition to runner-up Allen........DeShaun Watson threw for 4800+ yards with an absurd 8.9 yards per attempt,   Russell Wilson threw 40 TD passes.  

     

    2) It's not very likely that the "WR corps" would rank higher at the end of the season.   They are ranked there because that's their expected performance level this season relative to their peers.   That's the point.   And it is the WR corps.......not the receiving corps.    ESPN recently ranked the Bills cast of weapons("sometimes" called a receiving corps) as 24th in the league.   Slightly higher because of above average TE and RB group.

     

    3) Correct, there is relevant data.   That's what the statistical models are for.   There is a whole industry with billions of dollars changing hands........the foundation of which begins with projecting theses guys stats.    

     

    4) The reality is that it all looks easier in the offseason.   It's far from easy to get open and make plays in the NFL as a receiver.   Just like it's far from easy to rush the passer.   Or command and control double teams as a NT.   Those realities hit drought era Bills fans in the mouth every September for 16 years.   What we should be able to admit is that star players command extra attention and that extra attention creates greater opportunity for others.   I'm not overstating anything.   It's reality.   It's a matchup league.  

    Regarding point 2): The data for ranking WR rooms going into a season, is a lot foggier for some teams than it is for others. It is especially foggy for the Bills for numerous reasons-- Shakir is our only returning WR, the data for the FA WRs comes from other teams, and QBs (far lesser teams, and QBs for most of them), and the way they get used, and who rises in the system is speculatory. I submit that that uncertainty alone will push the Bills WR room ranking down from teams for which the data is more relevant. And if you judge someone like Curtis Samuel on his past performance, without applying the context of the unquestionably better situation he will be entering with the Bills, then it's reasonable to believe he will exceed expectations. That 2020 group of Diggs, Beasley, and Brown, who all had career years with Allen, provide compelling evidence for an optimist like myself.

     

    Regarding point 4): Perhaps I've misrepresented your opinion regarding Shakir, or whomever ascends to WR#1, and the "extra attention" that receiver will attract. Obviously, that will happen. But some on this thread seem to suggest that Khalil Shakir is going to be smothered, or at least receive the same attention that Diggs did. But I don't think it's going to be as significant as all that. Regardless of what personnel is on the field-- 12, 11, or even that jumbo package that Brady seems to love-- there will almost always be four legit receivers on the field, and often five. 

     

    But, you're definitely right about one thing: It does all look easier in the offseason. At least, for an optimist like myself. But, for the pessimists around here, it seems to go the other way.

     

     

    • Like (+1) 2
  12. 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

     

     

    Like I said,  we had long since clarified that we were talking about WR's only.

     

    What Avisan was replying to was my post which clearly stated "WR corps".    It wasn't a trick question.

     

    And as to whether they had a top 3 group of passing game weapons...............the Bills finished 3rd in reception yardage and 3rd in TD's in 2020.

     

    So maybe........if the receiving corps actually includes all the receiving options and not some arbitrarily drawn line.

     

    The Bills finished 8th in receiving yards last year.    I didn't see much objection when the Bills WR's were coincidentally ranked as the 8th best group by PFF at the end of last season.  

     

    They have the Bills "WR corps" ranked 27th in their preseason rankings for 2024.

     

    It's not really an apples to apples comparison, though, to cite how the receivers in 2020 finished the season, and compare it to how this WR room (with all the unknowns they bring) ranks entering the season. I don't know where the 2020, or 2023 corps ranked entering their seasons, but considering that there is only one player returning in 2024 from last season (Shakir), I would suspect that one factor alone would push the ranking down for many analysts, as would the lack of clear data as a whole.

     

    I also believe (and perhaps I'm merely being optimistic here) that this ranking will very likely be higher at the end of the season, than entering the season. Especially if the ranking is for "receiving corps,"and not just "WR corps."

     

    How much higher is, of course, speculation. But, it's not really pure speculation. There is relevant data that we can apply. For example, we can look at Samuel, and the QBs, and offenses he has worked under, and make an assumption that he will produce better with Allen. I'm sure you would say that's an optimistic application of the data, and I suppose it is. But it's not unrealistic. It becomes unrealistic when it is over emphasized.

     

    Conversely, I think you are overemphasizing some of the contrary data-- like how much more Shakir, Kincaid, and/or Samuel will be pressured by the top defenders in any given game because of Diggs' departure. Certainly, that's going to happen, but I do believe that you, and others, have been overstating it.

    • Like (+1) 1
  13. 23 hours ago, freddyjj said:

    Childless men and women have an overall higher mortality than adults with children, meaning that they die earlier, recent studies show. Mothers and fathers with two biological children have the lowest mortality risks, but it increases for parents with three or more biological children.
     

    From an article in Journal of Epedemiogy and Comm Health entitled “Payback time? Influence of having children on mortality in old age”

    I can't speak for all the other dads out there, but speaking for myself (60yo, with an 18yo entering college, and a 14yo entering high school), I can't afford to die.

    • Like (+1) 1
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    • Haha (+1) 1
  14. 17 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

     

    The premise of this thread is that some other AFCE team takes the division from the Bills. Two ways that could happen.

     

    1) The Bills take a step down, creating a void for some other team to fill.

    2) The Bills stay about the same. The Bills fail to win the division because some other team takes a step up.

     

    If we're talking scenario 1), then I agree with the majority that it likely comes down to the Jets or the Dolphins. But if we're talking scenario 2), I'd argue that it could just as easily be the Patriots as any other team in our division. They have the most upside, if stuff goes their way.

    The most important piece of "stuff going their way" would be for Drake May to exceed all expectations, and very quickly transform from a raw, boom/bust prospect into an NFL phenom. The idea that he could do that quickly enough, and to a degree that they could take the division from three teams that are clearly more talented, with the specious O-line, and pedestrian receiving corp they currently have, is a sucker's bet.

    • Agree 1
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