I agree, that he HAS to win Florida, without it he has no shot. The point that I'm clearly making is that it's a very close race, and that momentum is on his side. It's not based on a feeling or a hunch, but actual polling data. An objective observer factors in momentum in EVERY single National Polling AND battle ground polling, factors in structural resource advantages heading into the final two months that will play a huge role, factors in historic data that shows that undecided voters tend to break away from the incumbent, factors in that the economy is the number concern of the US electorate and all polling is showing Romney in the lead in this area.
Two to three months ago, Obama was feeling a lot better about his possiblities than he does today, and if I was in Romney's camp, I would realize that this is the best position that they've been in since the two man race had begun. Those are facts.