Bleeding Bills Blue
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Posts posted by Bleeding Bills Blue
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Just now, Dillenger4 said:
WTF are you crying about?!?? He is known to get handled at the line of scrimmage. He is small and light. Fast, yes for sure. But he is bumped easily and can be covered. Also not a great route tree runner. That's his jam. We fleeced the Chefs. Now if we can manage to get the deal done with SF for Ayouk (two 2nr round pix) will you be happy. Cause its happening.
He's also like 170 lbs which is lighter than mckenzie. I can't picture him ever being anything but a minus as a blocker.
His tape also doesn't really show this guy as someone screaming down the field catching bombs.
Just now, Bangarang said:People also thought Reid was going to get a ton of production out of Kadarius Toney. You just never know.
Yup - a more flexible player, who is quicker and more of a yac threat. His biggest impact was as a PR in the super bowl, and his drops all but knocked him out of the depth chart.
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2 minutes ago, djp14150 said:
it’s not hard to get 4.4 and under speed.
IIRC buffalo signed KJ Hamler who has 4.4 speed.
They already signed hollywood brown. MVS before that. Toney. Hardman. All of these guys run in the 4.3's. They drafted him because they think he is better at WR than any of them, in addition to superior speed. But lets not act like they were slow or something.
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11 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:
RE: Adonai Mitchell -
Ive seen unnamed scouts talk about him being an issue, ‘uncoachable” was the term used. Some unspecified characters concerns and him struggling to manage his diabetes.
NFL.com and some other big time scouting reports mention zero issues. There have been zero articles written, no specific details alluding to situations or events.
Does anyone have any info on these character ‘red flags?’ He’s likely the highest potential WR on the board still, and I’d take him at 33 if the character checks out.
I believe what i read was dogging routes when he doesn't think he'll get the ball.
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I see what is out there today from a trade perspective first - but honestly i probably take the dejean. I think he becomes a day 1 starter at the weakest part of your defense. If you see the potential for the guy to be an all-pro on your defense, i do see how that could be valuable. We really are a team that needs more star players.
There are still free agent safeties available (as well as WRs) - Simmons, Jackson, even a Hyde reunion.
As for WR - you have 2 in the 2nd next year that you can potentially move with a later pick to try and still double dip at WR if there are 2 you like.
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5 hours ago, Awwufelloff said:
What are you talking about? We literally went through this when the bills wanted mcduffie and ended up with Elam a few years back. That move cost us and this one will too. Bills are playing checkers, while the chiefs play chess.
They traded in front of us to pick the player we wanted... This time we traded them a player we didn't want at that spot and got a pick moved up to the 3rd round...
They are so dissimilar i don't know how we could have "went through this before".
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1 hour ago, warrior9 said:
Thats a VERY steep price for a team that has DJ Moore, KA, Kmet and the ability to get a younger play maker to develop behind the two.
For some reason, people CLAMOR over Tee Higgins and he has been the most average WR since he came in to the league and he can't stay healthy. He's never hit 75 catches, he has had 1091 and 1029 as his career highs and never more than 7 TDs in a year.
Giving up #9 for that guy.... seems like lunacy.
Not to mention, Cinci giving up that much to move up 9 spots is even worse.
Not to mention FURTHER - he's coming off an absolutely terrible season.
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1 minute ago, Billy Claude said:
The Bengals were incredibly lucky in 2021. Every Bengal playoff game was incredibly close. In the wild-card game, the Raiders had three shots at tying (or winning) the game from the Bengals 9-yard line with 30 seconds left. In the divisional game against the Titans, Tannehill threw two 4th quarter interceptions including one with 40 seconds left at mid field that set up the Bengals game winning field goal and in the conference championship, one could argue the Chiefs were emotionally spent from the 13 second game.
The 2021 Bengals were probably the weakest AFC team in the Super Bowl in about 20 years.The chiefs ran that stupid play before the half that didn't score and ran out of time - which in a 3 point game is kind of important.
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16 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:
Isn't Hendrickson the dirty player that deliberately rolled into Allen's leg 2 years ago and then laid a cheap shot on Haushka when he wad with the Jets in 2018?
Oh yea... He's a gator roll guy too
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2 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:
This is guy I want on my fantasy team this year. There are certain guys that produce EVERY.....SINGLE....WEEK and freaking kill me every time I go against them. St. Brown is one of those guys
Massive target share, high catch %, and he even had 10 TDs (5 in the red zone). In PPR he's just a monster, but even in non-ppr 1500 yards is awesome. If he's healthy his floor is among the best of all WRs.
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So... is he not a corner?
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1 minute ago, Beck Water said:
I'm not sure "signed a second contract with the team that drafted them" is a good criterion to decide if a player is a "hit" or a "miss". Take, for example, Edmunds. Did he sign a 2nd contract with the team that drafted him? No. Was it because he was a "miss"? No, he started 5 years for the Bills and didn't sign a 2nd contract only because he made himself a very high priced FA, and we prioritized re-up'ing our 1st round QB (drafted that same year) and 1st round DT.
And (for example) 2019 QB Daniel Jones counts as a "hit" because he was offered a 2nd countract - but do Giants fans count him as a hit? Do we?
Tight end is a high "miss" spot - But there aren't a ton of huge busts. Greg Olsen is considered a "miss" in this exercise, as are TJ hockenson and Evan Engram. I also don't feel like going through all of it to determine who in the "hits" should be considered a miss. It's also a position that has evolved considerably so probably not a great example, but i figured its one of the smallest numbers so easiest to find the discrepancies.
Misses (didn't sign 2nd contract with team that drafted them) -
OJ Howard
Hayden Hurst
Noah Fant - Traded before the 5th year option year to get a QB
TJ Hockenson - Traded because they didn't want to extend him because he was going to set the market at TE
Engram - Good example of the guy throwing you the ball making a difference
Ebron
Gresham
Keller
Olsen - Played like 15 years for Carolina
Watson
Winslow - Signed richest TE contract in history after trade
Graham
Stevens
Becht
Hits
Njoku
Eifert
Pettigrew
Lewis
Davis
Miller
Clark
Shockey
Heap
Franks
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There is a lot to pore through when it comes to this type of data. I think a few things can be made clear
1 - Draft classes are not created equal across the board, but even more so at specific positions. 2021 for example didn't look to have much when it came to talent graded as 1st rounders across the board.
2 - Teams overdraft for need. "we need a big body" "we need speed" etc. Falling in love with a trait over a player.
3 - It doesn't make sense to compare trends of where players are picked. I'd more look at previous drafts as trying to get an understanding of how GM's move on the board. You grade prospects every year against each other, but also against previous year players as well. Like i don't care where Bateman was picked, what grade did we have on him and what did we see him as?
4 - The big board where you grade prospects regardless of position is where you'd want to identify your own personal hit/miss rate. Why did we grade basham over humphrey? Did we even have them graded in that order? Did we double down at End for a specific reason? Was it a reach?
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49 minutes ago, Virgil said:
I didn't know I was having company. Let me press my ass-less chaps
Fun fact... all chaps are ass-less if you don't wear anything underneath 🙂
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17 minutes ago, Cray51 said:
B. Cooks - Good #2
K. Benjamin - Bad
W. Fuller - Bad
N. Agholor - #3/4
B. Perriman - Bad
P. Dorsett - Bad
J. Doctson - Bad
L. Treadwell - Bad
D. Moore - Low Tier #1
C. Ridley - Low Tier #1
M. Brown - Good #2
N. Harry - Bad
C. Lamb* - Mid Tier #1
J. Reagor - Bad
J. Jefferson** - Top #1
B. Aiyuk - Mid Tier #1
K. Toney - Bad
R. Bateman - #3 with Potential
So we have:
1 Top Tier #1
4 Mid/Low #1s
2 #2s
2-3 #3s
8 Bad
To be fair, in the last few years the results have been better:
Since 2018 Draft:
4 Mid/Low Tier #1s
1 Top End #1
1 Good #2
1 Good #3 with upside
3 Bads
So really the tweet is a little misleading. In the past 5 drafts, teams in our position have found a #1 WR 50% of the time. With this class being deep, the chance of that hit only goes up. Is the risk there? Of course. But I'm not scared about picking a WR at 28. If Beane had a guy they want, they need to go after them.
There's a fair number of misses in the top half of the drafts too. And some of these were just... bad WR classes. Kevin white in the top 10. Corey coleman in the top 15. Devante parker in the top 15. Corey Davis at 5. John Ross at 9.
2018 and 2019 didn't even have guys going in the top half of the first. I don't think its in this data, but neither did 2023.
2020 Ruggs can be considered a bust.
2021 was a top heavy group. I don't think many teams had toney and bateman as 1st round grades. It was also just... a bad draft in general as it followed the covid season.
2022 - 5 dudes in the top 16. So Burks is probably a bust - but he was the 6th one off the board in a pretty solid top 4.
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3 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:
Last time Bills traded up for a WR?
I believe it was when they took Sammy Watkins. How do you feel about that?
Do you mean the first round?
I believe we traded up for Shakir. Also they traded up for Zay Jones.
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1 minute ago, BigDingus said:
Just shows the draft really is a crapshoot, because I'm sure the hits jump up once you get into the 2nd & later rounds.
While many of those late 1st round picks were failures, you have teams finding Nacua, Diggs & Hill much later.
This ignores plenty of top 16 misses in some of the same years. Like yes Agholor isn't an amazing player, but kevin white never even played. Will fuller had some really bad injury luck - but corey coleman was straight up bad at football.
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11 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:
The more I read and the more mock drafts I simulate on the net, the more I've come to the conclusion that Beane needs to acquire two more top 100 picks in order to meet the team's needs for a starting WR, and good rotational players (and possible 2025 starters) at S, DL and Edge.
When I look at rankings and the mock drafts there is a tier of WRs from 28-45 (Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Coleman and Pearsall), a tier of safeties from 65-80 (Bullard, Nubin, Kinchens, Bishops and Bullock), a tier of DL from 50-70 (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, Hall, Smith & Fiske) and a tier of edge players 65-90 (Isaac, Braswell, Booker, Trice & Elliss). The Bills currently have picks 28 & 60 and then nothing until 128. There are also some Edge players at approx 28 (Robinson & Kneeland), WRs at 60ish (Legette, Polk, Corley, Wilson).. I also like WR Devontez Walker as a possible 3rd rd steal.
There are 4 approaches to get the picks we need. 1) Trade down from 28. This should garner us a top 100 pick for just moving down a few slots. 2) Trade down from 60. To get a top 100 pick this way, we'll have to add one of our 4th rd picks. A deal might look like 60 and 133 for 65 & 94. 3) The 3rd method would be to package our 4th rd picks and additional 5th or 6th rd picks to move back into the late 3rd rd. Lastly, I can see Beane trading our 2nd or 3rd in 2025 plus a later pick in 2024 to get back into the 2nd or 3rd rd, especially with the Minn 2nd in hand.
Depending of how the draft falls on Thursday, I'd trade down from 28 to 31 for SF's 3rd rd pick (94). The second move I'd make is trading our 3rd rd pick in 2025 and a 4th in 2024 (133) to Atl for pick 79.
When I mocked this, I walked away with McConkey at 31, Fiske at 60, Ellis at 79 (we like Utah players after all
) and Bullock at 94. I then added Green (CB FSU) at 128, McCaffrey (WR Rice) at 144 and my sleeper Guerendo (RB Louisville) at 160.
Thoughts on the strategy(s)?
It all depends what we do on Thursday I think. If we move up, then i don't think there's really a path to getting 4 picks in the first 100. If we stand pat, i think 2025 picks are very much in play. If we move down, i hope we get enough to get 4 guys in that first 100 picks to be able to keep all of our 2025 picks.
The projected (i'll only believe it if they're literally in our hands) 4th and 5th round comp picks look ok for 2025 if that factors in at all on what draft picks may be in play in any trade scenarios. It looks right now like 1-2-2-3-4-4-5-6-6. 9 picks, with 6 in the first 4 rounds.
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7 minutes ago, Sweats said:
I don't know what the hell Denver's doing over there........they're just adding more fuel to the dumpster fire.
53M dead cap hit for wilson... plus 32 in 2025.
Figure thats your QB hit so... you can build the rest of a team. What you can't do is find an adequate QB for cheap.
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1 hour ago, ChevyVanMiller said:
I think Shavers is a dark horse to make the final roster. Mainly because he was considered the best gunner in the nation his last year in college (see the tweet below).
With the changes to the return game, and with some longtime Bills ST players gone, I think he gets a real look.MeRk on X: "I’ll be blunt, Tyrell Shavers is an elite special teams player and was the best gunner I watched all of last year, and it wasn’t close…at all…great add as a UDFA #BillsMafia https://t.co/RoTSAgUsVd" / X (twitter.com)
We signed Mack Hollins for the league minimum basically. They can't carry 2 ST only WRs so either you pick the better WR or the better special teamer.
Injuries happen though so he's a definite possibility.
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I think its hard to rank where the players ended up getting picked and determining hit rate. Ideally you would compare similar players and profiles and the grades that you have on them and look there at where you might have been wrong. What makes Collins a hit and bateman a miss? etc.
Sometimes you'll be like - bro had trash QBs, or trash coaches, or whatever. But thats i think how i would look at it.
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1 minute ago, Bag of Milk said:
I watch the draft until the bitter end every year Does anyone remember about what time the draft ended last year? I know it will vary somewhat
I actually have family coming in from out of town and I don't want to be interrupted until the draft is completely over.
I mean family is nice, but it's the Draft!!
I used to prefer the saturday sunday format. I guess this gives them more eyeballs though.
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1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:
The Cowboys have operated very prudently for a long time now. But I don’t think Worthy would be a “reach” or a “cute” pick. Speed is very de rigeuer in the NFL and Worthy is a quality WR prospect whose not just a one trick pony speed player.
I think the Cowboys also need some playmaking on offense. Lamb is a stud but outside of him there’s not too much else Brandin Cooks is the only other notable WR on their roster and while he’s coming off a decent year (54 catches 657 yards) he’s not the high end player he used to be. Jake Ferguson at TE is a good receiving option but not a dynamic player either.
So there’s a need at WR and for speed on the offense and Worthy is not going to be a shock to go in round 1 talent wise.
I can see it happening given that the player is a quality player at a position of need for the Cowboys
I think they like tolbert more than most people. However their primary targets coming at TE and from the slot though - i could see them seeing a potential value with that level of speed on the outside.
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I still think he's better than both of our safeties - who both signed for backup money.
They get 10M in space come june 1st. Post-draft i think they'll have a better idea on what they want to do with that money. If they get 2 WRs in the draft and they're comfortable rolling with that group, maybe a free agent WR is less of a priority. Mocks have been pointing to a safety for buffalo, but we'll know more in a week or so.
I personally don't think they're done at safety be it draft or free agency. Obviously hyde is out there, but so are Simmons, Jackson, Diggs, Adams etc. There's still a ton of dudes out there.
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I don't trade him for literally anything.
I'd trade his #1 WR. I'd fire the HC and GM - he's only ever worked with the 2 we have so i'd be willing to take my chances with allen and new people over giving the staff free reign to build from the ground up.
I know its hypothetical. But i'd rather start over with josh than use him to get assets to start over.
Trying to be reasonable here
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
4 5ths means they can also maneuver a few picks around in round 2-3, as well as bumping up the 4th. I think there are more roster spots available than in the past so while i don't think buffalo needs the 10 picks they have, 8 feels about right. 2 WRs, 1 S, 1 CB, 1 DE, 1 DT, 1 OL, 1 RB. I don't think they need to use premium picks on positions like RB and CB necessarily.