mjt328
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Posts posted by mjt328
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This defense is unexplainable.
Every year, they are statistically a Top 5-10 unit across the entire NFL. (Even after yesterday's debacle which dropped them way down the list, they are still ranked #8 in scoring defense, #1 in turnovers and #9 against the pass). Their adjusted numbers are even better on most advanced analytical sites. The Bills have multiple games each season where they totally confuse and harass elite veteran QBs and coaches. Even ones who see them all the time. A great example is Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes just a few weeks ago.
Yet somehow, we also have 1-2 times every season (and always in the playoffs)... where this defense performs no better than putting a bunch of traffic cones on the field. Not just bad. Not just terrible. But absolutely incapable of getting stops ALL GAME LONG. Every team has bad moments and bad games. But the Bills push it to the absolute extreme. How is it possible to play at such a high level for 15-16 games, and then suddenly morph into the most inept unit in the entire NFL for four quarters. It's baffling to me.
Yesterday's performance was pathetic. I hear what you are saying about the D-Line. But the Bills couldn't generate the slightest pressure when they blitzed either. Guys were WIDE open all over the field, even with us grabbing jerseys. Zone defense or in man coverage, defensive backs couldn't make a play to save their lives. I don't think anyone was able to get off a block all day. And tackling was ridiculously awful.
I don't want to hear about the lack of elite playmakers on the D-Line either. There are only a handful of guys in the NFL like TJ Watt, Myles Garrett or Chris Jones, and very few teams can boast having someone like that on the roster. Our talent on the front line is absolutely comparable to other top teams like the Lions and Eagles. Yet somehow even on their worst days, those teams can find ways to at least get a couple stops.
The big fear amongst Bills Mafia is that yesterday's game was only a preview of what will happen (again) in the postseason.
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On 12/4/2024 at 7:59 AM, DapperCam said:
It’s wild that Lamar has almost 1k more yards than Allen. I think having a bad defense actually helps in terms of volume stats. Look at the yardage Burrow is racking up. Allen has sat quite a bit of time in the second half, or just had times where the Bills were handing off to run the clock.
Mahomes is still a dark horse in my mind. Similar stats to Allen, but with 4 more turnovers. If the Bills falter and drop a couple games it could get close. He has 11 TDs, 2 INT, and 100 passer rating over the last 5 games.
It’s Allen’s to lose right now, but he still needs to finish strong.
Lamar Jackson is just getting his bye week now.
Josh Allen also has about a half-dozen games this year where he didn't even play in the 4th Quarter.
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23 hours ago, zow2 said:
If it was about total TD's and stats, they should have given it to Allen last season. Rex Ryan said as much on ESPN this morning. But it's about team success as well. If the Bills win 13-14 games and Allen continues to have good numbers I just can't believe they would decide to give it to a RB. Usually a RB-WR gets offensive player of the year. I heard the best argument on a sports show this morning. If you took Barkley off the Eagles they still have a good team. They have a similar record as last year too. He's having an amazing season but how many fewer wins would the Eagles have?. If you take Allen off the Bills they have 5 wins. But just for selfishness, the greatness Allen has shown over the past 5 years... to get past over when it's finally his moment would be a gut punch.
Stats always factor into the MVP conversation. But it really comes down to the narrative created by the sports media.
Allen's biggest problem in 2023 was that his worst games all came during Primetime with everyone watching. It started the Week 1 opener with three interceptions against the Jets on Monday Night. A month later, the offense struggled horribly and we almost lost to the Giants on Sunday Night. Finally that messy Monday Night loss to the Broncos, where he had three more turnovers. By the time the Bills rallied and turned the season around, the story about Allen had become his turnovers.This year, the Bills are undefeated in Primetime with three blowout wins in front of a national audience. Allen isn't turning the ball over. Plus he's had two HUGE eyebrow raising plays down the stretch, against last year's Super Bowl teams. That is why he's considered the leader.
It's not in the bag for #17. There are still five games left for the narrative to shift again. His performance against the Lions is going to be huge. It needs to be something that really sticks in people's minds. Because Barkley ends the season against the Giants. If he breaks the rushing record against his old team, and the Eagles get the #1 seed in the NFC... there is going to be a huge push for him to get it. Trust me.
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39 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:
I think Lamar’s pretty much out, at this point. Only 12 players have ever won MVP with 5+ losses, 6 of whom
were RBs. Only 2 won with 6+ losses, both RBs with 2,000+ rushing yards.
I’ve been thinking Goff still had a shot before last night, but really only think Barkley could knock Josh off now depending on what happens the final five weeks. But Josh is making plays the NFL has never seen before and is still winning, it’s going to be real hard for him to not win it.
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-player-with-most-losses-in-a-mvp-season
The argument for Lamar Jackson is totally stat related, which is fine. But he still hasn't had his bye week. People are acting like he's having some kind of historical numbers season. But Jackson only has 5 more touchdowns (32) than Josh Allen (27) with an extra game in his pocket. That lead could easily disappear over the final month of the season. Guessing that some voters will also penalize him for having another MVP candidate (Derrick Henry) on the same offense. Not to mention the high number of losses (5 and counting). Hard to win the MVP when your team doesn't even win the division.
Saquan Barkley is now a legitimate threat for the MVP award. He's currently on pace to break the single-season rushing record, which is definitely going to resonate with a bunch of voters. And the Eagles record is also the same as ours. He may get some sympathy votes from "old school" voters who don't like how the NFL has treated the running back position recently. Hopefully they are willing to factor in the number of games jumping to 17, when Eric Dickerson did it in 16 games.
The MVP award is mostly about narrative. There is still a full month of football left in the season. So it's going to be about leaving a final impression in the minds of the voters during the final stretch. Jackson basically sealed the deal last year on Christmas Day, when he played fantastic and the Ravens totally dismantled the 49ers in a huge primetime matchup. For Allen, that final impression will probably be the Lions game on December 15. Very few people are going to pay attention to his performance against the Patriots/Jets, unless it's really bad.
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Don't be surprised if the Bills have zero Pro Bowlers this year.
The NFL is stupid and lets the fans pick. Which means it's partially a popularity contest, partially based on fantasy football/stats, partially based on which markets are bigger (that's why Dallas has a dozen guys make it every season) and partially based on whoever announcers decide to hype up during the year.
Lots of voters know less than nothing and will just pick everyone from their hometown team. That puts us at a huge disadvantage right from the get-go, because Buffalo is one of the smaller markets. We also have a huge market (New York/Jets) that will purposely NOT vote for anyone on our team.
Patrick Mahomes could get put on IR on Week 1 and still make the Pro Bowl, because he's the face of the NFL. Lamar Jackson is also extremely popular around the country and has great stats this year. He won't miss it. They only pick three guys, so I would give Josh Allen a maybe 50/50 shot to get voted in. Either he gets snubbed, or Joe Burrow does. Just like every other season.
In fantasy football, we used to have Stefon Diggs putting up big numbers. But since we spread the ball around now, none of our RBs or WRs have the fantasy stats to catch anyone's attention, so forget anyone like Khalil Shakir or James Cook getting in.
All the rest of the positions (O-Line, D-Line, Linebackers, Secondary) will get in based on how much CBS, Fox, NBC and ESPN decide to actually talk about those players. When was the last time you heard the announcers rave about how fantastic Christian Benford was at cornerback? Or Terrell Bernard at linebacker? How much chance does Greg Rousseau have in a conference with TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, Max Crosby, etc.? About as much chance as Ed Oliver had last year. How many years did we watch Matt Milano get snubbed (and now he's hurt for the second straight year)? Taron Johnson is finally getting some talk, but he won't make it over big-name guys like Sauce Gardner and Jalen Ramsey. I give Dion Dawkins a tiny chance, and that's about it.
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As a Bills fan, I understand the desire to put Allen above Mahomes. But an unbiased person just cannot do that.
Our guy took a couple years to develop and didn't fully break-out as an elite player until 2000. By that point, Mahomes was already a Super Bowl champion, MVP and 2x All-Pro. Since then, they have been statistically neck/neck. But Mahomes has also won two additional Super Bowls and another MVP... defeating Allen/Buffalo in the playoffs three times along the way.
Both guys have been individually great in the playoffs. But Allen has been pulled down by the team around him (coaching, defense, weapons) in the biggest moments. Mahomes has found a way to overcome them. That has to be a factor.
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20 hours ago, JohnNord said:
How would this happen? Chiefs would get the bye and it would be the Bills playing the Ravens
The ideal scenario is that we get the bye.
If we don't, this is the next best "realistic" scenario I could figure out.
Bills get the #2 seed. They matchup with the #7 in the Wild Card Round. Best bet would be Denver or Indianapolis. Hoping Cincinnati doesn't go on a tear and scrape its way into the playoffs. They are tougher than their record.
Pittsburgh gets the #3 and defeats Los Angeles at #6. Houston gets the #4 and loses to Baltimore at #5.
In this case, we get the Steelers in the Divisional Round... then face the winner of Chiefs vs. Ravens in the AFC Championship.
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Depth is a great thing to have.
First I think they need to gradually ease Matt Milano back into the lineup sometime after the bye. See how he's moving post-injury, and let him slowly get back into playing shape. Don't forget how long it took for both Tre White and Von Miller to start looking like themselves again.
If Milano can regain his pre-injury form by the playoffs, then it's a no-brainer. He goes back into the starting lineup alongside Terrell Bernard, and the Bills will have the best Linebacker duo in the NFL.
You can also use Dorian Williams in more heavy-run situations, either as a third linebacker or simply replacing Milano/Bernard in the lineup.
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I'm very happy with how the season has gone so far. But I still think the #1 seed is a longshot.
The Bills still have to play the Lions on the road (possibly the best team in the NFL). The 49ers are a very good team fighting for their playoff lives (very similar to our situation last season). The Rams aren't a bad team by any means. The Jets are always a sneaky in-division matchup, regardless of how bad their year has gone. 14-3 would be an excellent finish, and I would honestly be satisfied with 13-4.
The Chiefs have three tough games left with the Chargers, Texans and Steelers, with a couple sneaky division matchups in the Raiders and Broncos. Personally, I think their remaining schedule is easier than ours. And they have a one-game lead. Lots of people are suddenly seeing them as vulnerable. But less than a week ago, many were considering us the "last hope" in keeping them from going undefeated. Anything can happen, but I'm not holding out hope here.
If we can't get the bye, I think the next best thing is to root hard for the Steelers to win the NFC North. I would love a scenario where we get the Broncos/Colts in the Wild Card, the Steelers/Texans in the Divisional Round, while the Ravens/Chiefs knock each other out.
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Despite the rivalry, part of me feels bad for Jets fans. I remember when the Bills were that dysfunctional franchise, with a meddling owner and a revolving door of GMs/coaches/quarterbacks. It's just a never-ending black hole of despair.
There is a formula for turning around a failing team. It starts with the right owners. Then hiring the right front office. Then the right coaching staff. Then drafting the right quarterback. Then adding the right supporting cast. We have been very fortunate that all those dominos have dropped over the past several years. Jets fans know there is no hope in the immediate future, because they still haven't gotten step-one taken care of. The dysfunction starts at the very top.
The Pegulas aren't football geniuses by any means. They just did their best to hire the right people, provided the financial resources needed to compete and then got out of the way. That was something that Ralph Wilson sadly wasn't able to do, especially in his later years. Yes, the Pegulas made some mistakes along the way. And obviously quite a bit of luck is involved in hiring the RIGHT guys. But at least they haven't been one of the roadblocks to the team's success.
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Coach of the Year usually goes to the HC of a team that was expected to be bad...yet found a way to significantly overachieve. Usually (but not always) it's also a fairly new coach to the NFL (1-2 years in the league) rather than a longtime established veteran. I have no idea why it's that way. Maybe because voters have no other idea on what to look for in a good coach.
That's why someone like Bill Belichick could be considered the best HC in the NFL for almost two decades straight, but somehow only won the award three times. Andy Reid won it once, and it was way back during his second year with the Eagles (over 20 years ago).
Based on the normal credentials, I would assume that Dan Quinn (Washington) is among the front-runners. Kevin O'Connell (Vikings) is another legit candidate. If Pittsburgh wins the AFC North, Mike Tomlin could buck the trend of younger coaches winning it. Dan Quinn (Detroit) and Sean McDermott are probably longshots, considering their teams aren't really surprises.
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There are only a handful of ELITE pass rushers, who can rack up 15-20 sacks per year regardless of scheme or other players around them.
TJ Watt and Myles Garrett are basically the Patrick Mahomes/Josh Allen of the DE world, and everyone else is a notch below.
Greg Rousseau has taken that step into Top 5-10 status. But he's not quite fast enough to put up HUGE numbers without additional help along the D-Line. In the same QB terms, he's probably in the Jalen Hurts/Justin Herbert tier.
Outside of Rousseau, the Bills have just not gotten a consistent push from the right side of the line, or from the middle.
Ed Oliver just doesn't seem to have the size to beat double-teams (and makes very little impact otherwise), and DaQuan Jones has taken a huge step-backwards this season.
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22 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:
This is actually gonna be a stress free game for me personally.
Win and ok, awesome- Probably a step closer to the 2 seed as I still don't see the bills passing KC with the bills tough schedule and KCs easy schedule.
Lose and nothing changes much. Still a very good chance to be the 2-3 seed
Yeah. Not as hyped for this one as the usual Chiefs game.
The AFC East is already locked up. So playoffs are not at risk, and we are pretty much guaranteed one of the Top 4 seeds.
Even if the Bills win on Sunday, they will still be a game behind for the #1 seed. With upcoming games against the 49ers and Lions, it's not like we have any easy path to win-out either. We are probably looking at a 14-3 or 13-4 season at best... and unfortunately that probably isn't going to be enough to catch them. The Chiefs aren't playing great and don't have a cakewalk the rest of the way. But they are already 9-0.
Getting the #2, 3 or 4 seeds is a toss-up at this point, because you don't know how they will matchup with the Wild Card opponents. Theoretically, the #2 seed could end up drawing the Bengals, while the #4 gets the Broncos. Homefield doesn't mean much to me either. January wind/cold can be just as much of a disadvantage to us.
Not to mention... the Bills have beaten the Chiefs in the regular season three years in a row. But they are 0-3 against Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. I would almost rather let our injured players heal and save our best gameplan for a potential postseason rematch.
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Based purely on body language, I'm noticing a lot more confusion on the defense this year.
Guys scrambling before the snap trying to figure out who to cover. After a big passing play, defensive backs going back and forth about someone being out of position. Not to mention the D-Line constantly getting burned on screens, and failing to keep contain.
Hopefully they can figure things out quickly. We are already past the halfway mark, and the postseason is coming quickly. We have a nice record and the AFC East is already in the bag. But I'm not feeling very confident about our chances in the playoffs.
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1 hour ago, Virgil said:
I think we are on the same page, but I may not be wording my thoughts correctly. In the games you mentioned, we did not have that burner to keep two safeties against us and make the opposing team respect longer passes. With Cooper, who I agree is a number one, we saw the benefit of that respect immediately.
I think we need a health Coleman (outside for contested catches), Shakir in the slot, and a respectable burner on the outside. Yes, that's Cooper right now, but I don't think his replacement needs to be as good as Cooper, just someone who you can't let run free down the sidelines.
If we have that, then I think this offense is in great shape and Josh plays a better brand of ball
Definitely.
The Bills don't need someone like Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, etc. They just need someone teams will respect enough to pull that coverage away from the middle, and give our other guys room to operate.
The Titans/Seahawks games were the only times we've had the entire WR group healthy, and it was very tough for teams to stop.
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19 hours ago, Virgil said:
In watching the Colts game where we really only had Samuel and Shakir as solid WR options (no shade thrown at Hollins, but he is more of a blocker and situational catcher for us), Josh looked more like early 2023 Josh in this game. You could see that they were trying to get Samuel involved early and it looked like he was trying to force some throws. Both of his interceptions, first real ones all season, came when Josh seemed to be pressing a bit. Granted, one was an under-thrown ball and the other Josh didn't seem to even see the defender. Regardless, Josh seemed like he wasn't able to read the entire field and was limited in who he was willing to throw to. The result, in my humble opinion, was a less free throwing Josh who could get through a variety of reads.
There's been a lot of talk that part of Josh's interception struggles last year was due to trying to keep Diggs, and sometimes Davis, involved in the gameplan. This season, Josh hasn't really needed to care about any of that and has been much better protecting the ball and "everyone eats." To me, this game was similar to that, but more-so for lack of options.
With all that being said, I think this shows that maybe we shouldn't be the team who pays a #1, but has 3-4 guys out there that Josh can trust to get open and make catches. Cooper, if he is ever healthy again, is that deep threat who teams at least have to respect, but I would argue we don't need a 20 mil per year receiver for that. In fact, I would argue that if we can draft a burner next season, have him opposite of Coleman, with Shakir in the slot, this offense will be great and cheap. Yes, this still assumes the compliment of the running game alongside Kincaid.
Just thoughts...
Yes and no.
I agree that Josh Allen has benefitted from not having the pressure caused by someone like Stefon Diggs demanding the ball. And the Bills definitely have plenty of overall TALENT within their receiving group to replace his production, especially if you count the Tight End room.
But I believe the main reason they have struggled offensively at times... is that ALL our best options are all short-area/middle of the field guys. Khalil Shakir in the slot. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox over the middle. Running backs in the flats. Even Curtis Samuel is more of a YAC guy. Nobody on the roster is a threat down the field. And outside of 2-3 games, we've really had nothing on the outside at all.
After the first two weeks, defenses quickly realized we weren't able to consistently attack deep or outside. Our opponents adjusted, clogging the short/intermediate routes and daring our outside guys (Mack Hollins and inexperienced rookie Keon Coleman) to win. We struggled badly Weeks 3-4 with the Ravens and Texans, until getting Amari Cooper in a trade. Things immediately started picking up again. Then Cooper got injured. Then Coleman too. Yesterday was pretty ugly overall, and it shouldn't be surprising that our best success came when Hollins was actually making plays on the outside.
I agree that it's not about having a #1 elite WR on the team. But we do need some variety to our passing attack, or it gets WAY too easy and predictable to defend. Hollins had a good game against the Colts awful corners, but I'm not sure we can count on him on a weekly basis. We desperately need Cooper back, because the upcoming matchup is Trent McDuffie.
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18 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:
Well not sure how you come to that conclusion since the first INT was going to Shakir.
I was at the game, and I have no idea who the first INT was being thrown to.
There wasn't a receiver within 10 years of EJ Speed.
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The Chiefs were literally a toenail away from going 0-1 in the first game of the season against the Ravens.
They needed a BS pass interference penalty on 4th Down to beat the Bengals in Week 2.
They needed yesterday's FG block to win against the Broncos.
Not to mention the Falcons game, where Atlanta was driving for the go-ahead score and got stopped 4th-1 on the 13 yard line. Or the Tampa Bay Bucs game that went into overtime, and they won the coin flip.
Everyone is acting like Buffalo is the final hope for stopping them from an undefeated season. But the Chiefs have barely scraped through all season long. They still have the Chargers, Texans and Steelers after us. And they have struggled in the past against division opponents like Las Vegas and Denver. Also don't forget that Cleveland upset the Ravens after switching to Jameis Winston.
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2 minutes ago, Utah John said:
This is exactly what I figured for the season, back in March. Win the AFCE, maybe win a playoff game, call it a day and wait till next year when the Diggs cap issues go away. But I didn't count on all the replacements for the departed defensive players working out so well, or McGovern filling in well for Morse, or Coleman being a really solid draft pick. Or the Jets and Dolphins both collapsing. Now I'm thinking 11-6 at the absolute worst, 13-4 as the most likely result, and 15-2 an actual possibility. Both the Lions and Chiefs pulled out games yesterday they should have lost, and the Texans and Broncos showed how to attack them.
Most people felt the biggest problem this season was going to be the schedule.
Many of our opponents so far (Miami and NY Jets biggest of all) have been huge disappointments. It's also important to remember that our most difficult stretch (Chiefs, 49ers, Rams, Lions) is still upcoming. Even if the AFC East is already wrapped up, it will be interesting to see how we handle the next month. I think it will really tell us whether this team is a Top 5 contender, or looking at another early postseason exit.
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I'm sure this game will be extremely well officiated, and the NFL referees will be calling penalties equally against both sides.
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Lots of good ideas already. Here are my two big ones:
- Utilize technology wherever possible to ensure accuracy. There is no reason we shouldn't be using a sensor to determine where a ball is spotted already. I'm sure there are ways we can use the same idea to determine if a player steps out of bounds, crosses the goal line, which side moves first on Offside/false starts, etc.
- Keep a full team of officials in the booth, constantly reviewing calls and allowing them to quickly overturn ANY mistake made by the guys on the field. If there is a question, huddle for 20 seconds and wait for word from upstairs.
I also feel like there are WAY too many "vague" rules, which are not consistently interpreted from play to play. Holding. Pass Interference. Illegal Contact. Roughing the Passer. Unsportsmanlike Conduct. Not sure the specifics on fixing this, but something needs to be done to make sure these kinds of penalties are done consistently across the league every single game.
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21 hours ago, Special K said:
I get that his job on that play was to separate the man from the ball, however there were safer and cleaner ways to do it than the way he chose to do it.
Poyer has been in the league long enough......he knows the rules and he chose to break them in a very dangerous way.
There has to be a reason why he chose to do this in both games vs. the Bills, and the simplest explanation is that he has bad blood towards the organization, but there is no excuse for putting the health of two players that have nothing to do with his situation at risk just to prove his selfish point, IMO.
Agree he's got bad blood towards the Bills organization.
Not sure that means he was aiming for the head and trying to hurt our players, or just extra motivated to make a huge play. Hopefully it was the latter.
Playing safety in the NFL has to be tough. Coleman was probably going to catch that pass if he didn't make a huge hit, and that likely meant the Bills were going to be in field goal position to win the game.
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2 hours ago, Charles Romes said:
actually it could become quite critical to edge out the Ravens for the 2 seed
In my opinion, the most important thing for the Bills is to be healthy rolling into the postseason.
If we can't get the #1 seed and first round bye, I'm not really sure anything else is critically important.
At this point, it's impossible to determine how seeding will look. What happens if the Bengals sneak into the playoffs and land the #7 spot? If that happens, it may be more advantageous in the Wild Card Round to have a lower seed. I would rather play the Steelers, Chargers, Broncos, Colts, etc.
And how many times has the weather in Orchard Park worked to our DISADVANTAGE? Imagine we have a matchup against the Ravens, and the forecast is snow and heavy winds. I would rather get into a Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson shootout, as opposed to a heavy ground game. And considering the Chiefs are now carried by the defense, it may be similar against them.
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Loved Jordan Poyer while he was here.
Since he left, I'm sensing some sour grapes towards the Bills organization though. Some players don't seem to understand the business-side of things, and why our team needed to move on. Part of me gets it... a player sacrifices his health to help a team win, then gets no loyalty in contract negotiations. Part of me doesn't... same player still becomes a millionaire, and the front office has an obligation to make the best decisions for the Buffalo Bills team.
I doubt it's a coincidence that Poyer made very questionable hits on Khalil Shakir in the first game, and then again with Keon Coleman. My hope is that he's just extra motivated to make a big play against his old team. Unfortunately, it comes across to many fans as a bitter ex getting dirty for revenge.
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An absolute disaster by the coaches at the end of this game
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Without the punt block, the Rams would have gotten the ball 30-40 yards farther down the field. And they would have proceeded to go on a 10-play, 6 minute touchdown drive anyway.
If the Bills had saved all three timeouts at the very end, the Rams would have still gotten a first down and iced the game.
I know everyone wants to blame the coach (as usual). But we really need to figure out why the defense is even capable of games like this. It doesn't seem to matter who is in charge (Leslie Frazier, Sean McDermott, Bobby Babich). It doesn't seem to matter if we rush 4 or blitz. It doesn't seem to matter if we play zone or man coverage. Every season we get 1-2 games where that side of the ball doesn't even show up to play.