mjt328
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Posts posted by mjt328
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37 minutes ago, Antonio said:
It is quite possible to get the No. 1 seed and either Ravens or KC are out of the playoffs, maybe even both.
People are getting WAY too caught up in the W/L record. The chances are still very good that both will make the playoffs.
The Ravens have 5 losses, which seems like a lot at this time of the year. But their upcoming schedule is very favorable, the AFC North is absolute trash, and they still play the Steelers twice. Win both (which is very possible) and they are back in 1st Place. Look at their remaining games, and tell me they can't finish 8-1 or 7-2 with Lamar Jackson back and healthy.
The Chiefs have a much tougher schedule, and they are slowly falling behind in the AFC West race. But they do play the Broncos two more times, so the path to catching up is still there. At the very least, they probably need to lose 3-4 more games in order to completely miss the playoffs. They are still too good for that to happen. Smart money is probably on them landing a Wild Card.
In my opinion, the Bills best route would be getting the #1 seed... then hoping the #4 seed Ravens end up playing the #5 seed Chiefs in the Wild Card. One eliminates the other. Then root for one of the wild cards to knock-off the Colts or Broncos. That way it's possible we get the bye and avoid both teams completely.
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The most important part of the #1 seed is the bye. It gives us an extra week for injured players to rest and return to action. One less game for players to possibly get injured. Plus the Bills are undefeated (9-0) under Sean McDermott coming out of the bye.
Then you have the homefield advantage. The Bills are 7-1 in the postseason at home under McDermott, and 0-5 on the road. On top of that, the other elite QBs in the AFC are more vulnerable. Patrick Mahomes has a 3-2 playoff record on the road, and Lamar Jackson is 1-2. Not that a team should need any extra motivation in the playoffs, but maybe closing out this stadium with an AFC Championship victory would also give us an added boost.
I totally understand the reasoning behind wanting to avoid the Chiefs and Ravens. One seems to have us in a mental block. The other is a physical mismatch for our defense. But the other advantages are just too big a deal to pass up.
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It's probably a mix of everything. Hard to pick out a couple All-22 plays from the game, and form an opinion based solely on that.
In this clip, you will notice that Kansas City's DT (looks like Chris Jones) gets some pretty quick pressure against O'Cyrus Torrence. Right in the center of the pocket. Josh Allen did have time after stepping around the missed block, but there is a good chance he lost track of the WR progressions while doing that. The TE was wide open in front of him, so he just took it.
My biggest problem is that when it's 3rd-Long, and Josh is scrambling around the pocket buying time... those are the big plays when a WR needs to get open. It's not happening enough.
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3 hours ago, BillsVet said:
Funny that people point always to metrics which is more just seeing the trees but not the forest.
Buffalo's strength of schedule is 15th in the AFC and 30th overall. As it stands, they've played 1 team thus far that would make the playoffs and even counting KC, then that's 2 out of 8 games. They have 4 more the rest of the way.
Every playoffs the competition is better and there's more motivating players because more is at stake. What worked in the regular season has been borne out to not be as effective in the post-season which was on display against KC in their last playoff loss (cue the 29 points scored refrain poster).
Agree with all of this. I would also add that metrics/stats are generally an average of what the team has done throughout the season. Playing teams like the Jets, Dolphins and Panthers are going to boost those figures significantly.
When I'm evaluating a team, I want to see how the passing game performs against a strong pass rush and lock-down secondary. I want to see how the rushing game can move a really stout front 7. I want to see how much pressure we can generate against a really good O-Line group. I want to see how whether our corners are winning battles against the top receivers. When the playoffs roll around, it becomes much more difficult to hide your weak spots. There are also no do-overs for a bad game. You either show up or go home.
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2 hours ago, Mikey152 said:
This isn't even sort of true.
There are several things missing in your analysis:
The trade deadline is in the middle of the season. Football isn't a plug and play sport or fantasy, and even if a guy is proven vet it doesn't mean he is gonna just show up and be that guy for your team.
Vets are way more expensive and we are already all in with our roster...there isn't a lot of room.
Unless the guy is on an expiring contract, this year isn't the only one that matters
Everyone uses the Rams and Eagles as examples, but that is confirmation bias. What about all the teams that make trades and don't win? I mean, the BILLS have made deadline deals and the guy was garbage either right away or the next season. It's just not as black and white as you want it to be.
My analysis is referring to Beane as a GM overall. Not just the 2025 trade deadline.
He started with a reputation of being aggressive and bold. But over the last many years (with the team on the edge of Super Bowl contention), he's become overly timid with upgrading the roster. In free agency. In the draft. In trades. While teams in our position should absolutely be making "all-in" moves, Beane is always hedging his bets towards the future. Some think it's smart. Many Bills fans believe it's a huge mistake.
There were many on this board who wanted to see us attempt a trade-up in the 2024 draft for a WR. Make a blockbuster move and go up for Malik Nabers, or a smaller move for Brian Thomas Jr. But nope. We kept hearing how expensive it was for those oh-so valuable draft picks. It wasn't even something on the table for Beane. First round picks are just too valuable. Of course when our pick rolled around, Beane was so impressed with the top WR on his board that he traded back and just took whoever was left over. Yay for Keon Coleman.
The reason we don't have much cap space is because Beane prefers to fill the roster with 3-4 solid/mediocre players (Josh Palmer, Curtis Samuel, Elijah Moore) instead of making an aggressive trade for a really top-level guy.
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Many NFL GMs seriously overvalue draft picks, and Brandon Beane unfortunately falls among that group.
If you listen to Beane's pressers after the draft, he will readily admit how difficult it is to obtain a high-level impact prospect (even in the 1st Round) when picking in the mid/late 20s. Pretty much everyone we pick 4th Round and later is either depth, special teams, or iffy at even making the roster. But when it comes time to possibly trade one of those draft picks for a proven veteran... he holds onto them like they are gold.
Think about the hot names we heard over the last couple days. Jaylen Waddle was the 6th overall pick in 2021. Chris Olave was the 11th overall pick in 2022. We never had the slightest shot to draft either one where we were picking. Both have been fairly productive in the NFL. Yet only a few short years into their careers, Beane (and many other GMs) scoff at the idea of spending a 1st to obtain someone of that caliber. They would rather take their chances with picking someone like Keon Coleman - who less than 20 months after getting drafted wouldn't fetch a Day 2 selection.
As a rebuilding team, it was smart for the Jets to do what they did today. It gives them more ammo to go after a potential franchise QB in the upcoming draft, which is the starting point for turning things around. But honestly, even with all those picks... what are the odds they land another CB or DT close to the talent level of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams?
The Rams figured this out several seasons ago, and traded their way to a Super Bowl championship. The Eagles are notoriously willing to part with draft picks to stack an already loaded roster, and it's paid off huge for them. Teams that are close need to be buyers, because they can obtain elite/proven players in exchange for picks that probably won't come close to playing at that level. It's absolute madness that more teams haven't figured this out yet.
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3 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:
they stunk with them. this is a massive win for the jets.
Correction. It's the smart move for the Jets. Only because they need to blow everything up and start over.
It's only a massive win if they use those extra draft picks to land a franchise QB, and then properly build the roster around him.
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24 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:
Im really sick of this sentiment.
Google the 2012 Patriots. Probably the best offense of all time and their X was Brandon freaking Lloyd.
Welker, two dynamic TEs and a stable of RBs...sound familiar?
Brandon Lloyd had 74 catches and 911 yards that year.
You are actually proving my point exactly. The Patriots offense was built to distribute the ball to slot receivers, tight ends and running backs. Which is perfectly fine. I'm good with that being our method of attack, if that's where our skills strengths lie. Make Kincaid and Shakir the focal point.
But everyone knows that Brady could still make you pay deep, which is why teams were reluctant to cheat heavily towards the line of scrimmage. Even Gronk could catch a deep ball down the seem if the safeties were too focused on the underneath stuff. Not to mention, he was light years ahead of pretty much every QB in NFL history (including Josh Allen) in terms of diagnosing where to distribute the ball pre-snap.
Keon Coleman is on-pace for about 60 catches and 600 yards, and that's with Allen force-feeding him the ball at times. His usage is actually going down as the year goes along. It's clear the Bills don't have the horses to challenge defenses on the outside. An overweight gadget WR who hasn't done anything in 3 seasons is not going to move the needle.
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Just now, GolfandBills said:
I disagree.. Brady wants to run quick passes all the time thsts exactly what Deebo is good at
If you don't have anyone on the roster who can challenge the defense outside/deep, they will shift everyone closer and take away the short passes and inside stuff.
Brady can design his offense however he likes. But if we don't have the ability to make a defense pay for cheating against that style of play, it will become easy to shut-down.
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9 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:
If this happens, I'm going to start questioning Brandon Beane's understanding of Football X's & O's.
How many gadget/slot/inside guys can you possibly field at one time? Do we not understand that offensive rosters kinda need guys who can play outside and run down the field?
Right now our top receiving weapons are a slot WR (Shakir) and a TE who plays from the slot (Kincaid). Most people feel like our top outside WR (Coleman) would be better from the slot. Then we are also paying good money to another TE (Knox) and another gadget/slot player (Samuel).
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21 minutes ago, BearNorth said:
Biggest issue with this is going to be the size of Allen's contract by 2029-30. His cap hit for 29-30 is showing as 86 Million.
Keep pushing his cap hit out, until the day he retires and you are forced to start over.
Then you balance out his $150-200 million dead money by trading all the veteran assets left on the team for draft picks.
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The way injuries seem to happen with this team, getting the #1 Seed would still be the best thing (by far). Not to mention that we are 9-0 after the bye under Sean McDermott.
To accomplish that, the Bills just need to keep winning the games in front of them. No more slip-ups. The upcoming matchup with the Patriots is their opportunity to pull back ahead in the AFC East, and is a must-win. We can't really afford to drop more than another 1-2 games the rest of the season.
My feeling is that Baltimore will still roar back and win the AFC North (easily), and the Chiefs will still make the playoffs (possibly also winning their division). An ideal scenario is for them to play each other in the first round, while we watch the Wild Card games from the couch.
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1 hour ago, Dr. K said:
I think it's classic how twenty-four hours ago the obvious truth about the Bills (nationally, and among some of us Bills loyalists) was that they were a second-rate team with no shot at the Super Bowl.
And now they are back as one of the favorites.
I don't think the way the media (and some fans) react to games is rational. After a game like this you get three days of people shouting unequivocal opinions that they will reverse by next Monday in order to shout about something else.
It's funny, when it's not exhausting.
To be fair, yesterday was the best the Bills have looked all year long. It was the first time they've played strong for four full quarters, regardless of opponent. Even the blowouts they had against the Jets and Panthers were very unimpressive performances by the passing offense, and those games felt more like the other team throwing up on themselves than us actually being dominant.
If another team like the Chiefs or Ravens took until Week 9/Game 8 to finally put things together, we would (justifiably) be calling them overrated and beatable. In fact, the same Bills fans that are saying "all that matters is getting the win"... are the same ones saying the Patriots are frauds because of their easy schedule, and we will easily pass them by year's end. They were also the same ones saying that Kansas City wasn't as good as their record last season.
Personally, I don't think there is anything wrong being critical. Yes, of course all teams are flawed. But until the Bills hoist that trophy, they haven't earned trust and confidence from the fanbase. Most of us expect bad things to happen eventually, because that's what happens every season.
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If Cook isn’t breaking off big runs, the offense completely stalls.
This team is going to get crushed today.
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Go back to 2018-2019, and I was very much rooting for the Chiefs to win. I wanted to see Andy Reid finally get one. I thought Patrick Mahomes was fun to watch. The team was new and exciting. And more than anything else... I was ready for the two decade long Patriots dynasty to finally end.
Even from 2020-2022, I still had an element of respect for the Chiefs. Even with our postseason losses to them. They were a very good team that we were simply struggling to get past in the playoffs. It was frustrating, but there wasn't anything in particular I could hate or dislike about that franchise (outside of domestic abuser Tyreek Hill).
To me, everything started falling apart with the Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce fiasco. The NFL couldn't go 10 minutes without showing her reaction to the game, and every element of their coverage reeked of blatant favoritism. It was around the same time that officiating also started getting ridiculously biased in their favor. Every single 3rd-down stop from the opponent was followed by a suspiciously late yellow flag. There was a noticeable drop in how well the team was actually playing every week... but somehow (often with help from the refs), they continued to find ways to win.
At this point, Chiefs games are pretty much unwatchable for me. I won't even tune in hoping they lose. I didn't watch the Super Bowl, and didn't even know who won the game for almost a week after. I haven't watched any of their primetime games this year, and probably won't watch another outside of the Bills matchup. I'm not really excited about Sunday's game, and will be very quick to change the channel if things start going south. Seeing that team have any kind of success is literally that nauseating for me.
One more point. I think it's just dreadfully boring to watch the same teams win ALL THE TIME. We just suffered through the Patriots for nearly 20 years, and now the Chiefs have made the AFC Championship a whopping 7 years in a row. There are currently 12 franchises (and their fanbases) who have NEVER won a Super Bowl. That's more than 37% of the league.
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2 hours ago, Casey D said:
Really interesting take. He points out that the Bills have developed a much greater capacity to run the ball, which takes pressure off Allen. Bills need to stick to formula to pound the football and not turn it over.
On Allen and the receivers, several interesting points. He points out that Allen's completion percentage is up from 2024 from 63.5% to 68%, and YPG up from 219 to 222. Biggest difference is he is taking more sacks and committing more turnovers. As to receivers, defenses are playing soft man-to man coverage and giving receivers large cushions that no receiver can just blow by and go deep, but there is lots of underneath stuff there. He points to a third-and -1 where Allen throws to Coleman immediately for a first down as defender is over 5 yards off the Line giving Coleman big cushion.
He also points out Allen's footwork and accuracy sucked in the first half, and Trubisky is looking like a more competent backup.
Prognosis is that Bills/Allen still not playing great but certainly can if they stick to formula. Allen just needs to play a bit smarter, but the game against Carolina in second half was a good step forward from previous weeks.
Behind BN paywall.
I'm OK with us sticking with a heavy rushing attack (if it's working), and taking underneath throws (if that's what the defense is giving us).
The problem is that we need to take advantage when teams start creeping towards the line of scrimmage, or playing single-high coverage. And in those must-have situations (3rd and long), we need guys that can get open quickly without forcing the QB to scramble around and buy extra time.
In other words, I don't have a problem with the coaching staff's general philosophy. I have a problem with our capability to execute when opponents shut-down our primary method of attack. So yes. We do have a WR problem.
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If a quarterback is constantly getting pressured and hit... eventually they will start rushing throws and bailing from the pocket early. Even when the O-Line finally manages to give some decent time, that lack of trust in the blocking has gotten into the QB's head.
In the same way, if receivers are constantly having trouble getting open... eventually a quarterback will start moving through progressions too quickly and hesitating to pull the trigger. That's when he starts missing guys even when they are open.
I truly believe this is the root of what's wrong with Josh Allen right now. He's admitted that he's not trusting what he's seeing on the field. So what does that exactly mean? From the level of play we've consistently witnessed in the past, I have a hard time believing Defensive Coordinators suddenly figured out new ways to confuse him in Year 9. The lack of trust comes from the supporting cast - in particular the outside WRs.
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14 hours ago, Nihilarian said:
Does anyone else recall the 2023 season, and at the bye week, the Bills were 6-6, and meanwhile, Miami was 9-3? Talk about a bleak-looking future with Buffalo, THREE games behind at week 13. What does this HC do? He fires his OC and promotes from within. With all the pessimism going on right now, did things look worse back in 2023? That team met the Dolphins in the last regular season game and won the division.
A lot of Bills fans dislike McClappy for whatever reason, and they think the Bills should have been in the SB by now...and they would be right except the best team in the NFL with an offensive genius as their HC, a defensive genius as their DC, along with a generational talent at QB. KC has been the best team in the NFL for the last 5 years...the BEST!
Up to date, McD saw that the defense needed a boost, so he took over the playcalling for now. And if anyone remembers, he called the defensive plays back in 2023, too. That team was riddled with defensive injuries that season and still finished in the top 5 in points allowed and the top 10 in yards allowed. So this head coach knows what's up with what's going on with his team, and he will take the steps needed going forward. I have faith that he will make whatever changes are needed.
You talk about that season like it turned out positive.The Bills came back and won the division. But their mid-season lull cost them a chance at the bye. And then they got bounced in the Divisional Round.
People aren’t upset about the AFC East possibly slipping away. They are upset because this team still doesn’t look ready for the next step, and still looks behind the Chiefs. Which means another wasted year in Josh Allen’s rapidly closing window.
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On 10/21/2025 at 8:59 PM, SoonerBillsFan said:
This sums Beane up to a T. He isnt a good evaluator of Talent. You just have to get more out of 1st and 2nd round picks.
The Keon Coleman pick sums up Brandon Beane perfectly.
The Bills lose their star WR and need desperately to replace Stefon Diggs in the upcoming draft. With so many potentially good WRs in that class, he absolutely couldn't afford to screw it up.
The correct move would have been to aggressively identify a guy with premium #1 WR potential, and then move up in the draft to ensure getting that guy. If there wasn't a guy he liked in the draft, he could use that 1st Rounder and other picks as ammo to obtain a veteran option. Instead, he sits back passively in the late 20's, refusing to part with any of his precious draft picks to move up. He even trades back with another receiver-needy team, proving that he's got no true conviction on any of the WRs on his board.
If Beane really believed in Coleman, why would he be willing to trade back and risk losing him? If he values his picks so much, why would he be willing to part with a premium draft selection on a WR he doesn't really believe in? This is the conundrum that exists when you have a General Manager who drafts for position and is trying to fill-out a roster... as opposed to one who has a special eye for talent.
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43 minutes ago, Pete said:
This is my theory. And thats why Josh seems to be miserable. Grandma calls Josh to remind him to smile? Thats the polar opposite of Golden Retriever Josh that we love and know. I believe Josh is extremely frustrated with Joes dink and dunk, game manager offence. I think hes frustrated when no WR is open for 11 seconds. I think he beaten up from the ZPats and Falcons. And I think Josh knows the answers, but he is a good soldier, and does what hes told, even though hes often in a no win situation
I understand Josh Allen's mindset, because it's very close to my own.
At this point, who cares about the MVP award, AFC East titles and Wild Card Round victories? He's experienced this team accomplish all of that, and then not be good enough when it actually matters.
Over time, continually falling short wears on you. I don't really get excited for regular season success. And I get way more frustrated when the team plays like trash than I did 2-4 years ago. I literally have no patience with this team anymore, because I've seen the same song and dance. We keep hearing about the process and getting better... only to see a rinse/repeat every single season. The optimistic fans keep pointing out how we have stretches like this midseason and then turn it up down the stretch. But WHEN will this team stop squandering their chance at the #1 seed/bye with ridiculous garbage losses to inferior opponents? In truth, the Bills aren't getting better, because every season we restart and go through the same thing.
Every year, Allen is going out there and sacrificing his body - carrying a mediocre offense on his shoulders. He finally gets the running game he always needed, and it's literally the same time our top WR exits town and doesn't get replaced. At some point, the guy is just going to get mentally worn out.
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To me, the Patriots are irrelevant.
If the Bills are an elite Super Bowl contending team, there is no way the AFC East should even be in play this year. We are never going to draw a schedule this easy again, combined with a season where 2/3 elite QBs are injured and their teams may completely miss the playoffs. The fact that we are already behind in the standings, when we haven't even hit the most difficult part of the season, is absolutely pathetic.
The goal is to be the #1 team in the entire league, and I'm sick of the excuses why we keep getting passed by other franchises. We keep acting like the Bills have been inches away from hoisting the Lombardi, when in reality they haven't even made it out of the AFC Conference during the Allen/McDermott/Beane era. Only twice have they even gotten to the championship game. They have yet to get homefield advantage and top seed.
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WRs are not getting open consistently and protection has been very iffy at times. The coaching staff has also made him overly cautious about throwing interceptions.
Josh used to be a player who pressed downfield throws when he got frustrated. Now he’s become basically the opposite kind of QB. All the other offensive issues have made him hesitant and jumpy in the pocket. He bails out and holds it even when plays are there.
His ability to escape pressure has decreased this year too. Nobody wants to admit it, but this may be age related. Hope not. Only time will tell for sure.
The obvious answer is that we need to get him reliable help at WR, but I’m skeptical anything will happen.
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Everybody eats is a good general team-first philosophy for the coaching staff and the players. It’s not a good philosophy for the GM.
I don’t like forcing passes to pouty diva WRs who complain about not getting the ball enough, and throw the QB under the bus when things aren’t going their way. Good strategy is just throwing the ball to whoever is open.
The problem is when you get into key passing situations, and nobody CAN get open downfield.
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44 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Seriously this guy is the anti-poon of WR’s. Go ask JSN what he thinks about him. I have no doubt he and the combo of fake Football Jesus Lawerence are why he’s regressed. He may or may not equal what he did as a rookie ever again, but I know Waldron is not the guy I would ever judge a WR on.
Joe Brady doesn’t exactly have a great record with top receivers either… The last half of 2023 with Stefon Diggs, 2024 with Amari Cooper and whatever we have this year.-
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Peyton Manning joins Josh Allen to help Buffalo break curse
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I thought this was pretty funny.
Surprised they didn't include anything from the Music City Miracle or 13 Seconds though. Could have stuffed Patrick Mahomes in the barrel.