mjt328
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Posts posted by mjt328
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14 hours ago, 90sBills said:
If you look at them through these last handful of years you’d see that they have let a lot of home grown talent walked without tying up huge cap space to retain them. Instead they opted to replaced those talents with cheaper draft picks. ‘Possibly losing their best corner’ is not a new thing for them. They let Charvarious Ward walked after the first Superbowl so they wouldn’t have to pay him the big contract. They replaced him with Snead. Now they have McDuffie in line if Snead leaves as well as others they’re grooming.
That’s the difference between them and the Bills. You’re touting the Bills for keeping their picks but at what price? Add in some of the dead money big FA contracts like Von and I’m not sure how you don’t see the difference in the two FO’s.
When you bring up lucky plays you are trying to diminish what they’ve accomplished. If this was a one off Superbowl you’d have a better argument. But this is the second leg of a back-to-back and 3rd out of 4 Superbowls they’ve played in. No amount of lucky bounces can account for that level of success. And they’re still in a better cap situation than the Bills with a younger team primed to chase more championships. But yeah keep thinking the difference between the two FO’s ‘is literally 1-2 lucky plays’.
I guess we can disagree, but I never considered Charvarious Ward more than an average cornerback. To me, he would be the equivalent of us letting Gabe Davis walk this offseason. Not really a key piece or type of player they would sorely miss. Someone else also mentioned Frank Clark, who was already over the hill when they let him leave. He didn't even sign with anyone until late October, and even then signed for just over the vet minimum.
Which homegrown players do you believe the Bills SHOULD have let walk instead of paying them in free agency? Tre White? Matt Milano? Dion Dawkins? Taron Johnson? Ed Oliver? All of these players were great re-signings by the Bills. And looking back, all could even be considered bargains compared to their market value had they actually hit the market. They let Tremaine Edmunds walk and it turned out to be 100% the right decision.
Again. The Bills have literally ONE major free agent contract we can realistically complain about. Von Miller. And based on 6-7 years of trends, it's pretty obvious that signing was very uncharacteristic by Brandon Beane. This is not something he or the Bills regularly do. He tried making a big splash to get over the hump, and then went right back to a low-key/conservative signings in 2023.
That's why I think these complaints are ridiculous. The way Beane manages his salary cap and the way Brett Veach runs his are actually VERY similar. Both try building through the draft first. Both are usually low-key in free agency, with the occasional exception (a great example for the Chiefs is Joe Thuney). Both do their best to re-sign their best players, but won't break the bank to do it. Both are forced yearly to restructure contracts to make cap space.
The Bills-Chiefs are literally a toss-up over the last 3 seasons. Every single game between them has come down to 1-2 plays. It sucks that we keep coming out on the short-hand in the playoffs. But that doesn't prove their team OR their front office is vastly superior. It's much much closer than anyone wants to give us credit for.
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10 hours ago, Sweats said:
Looks like KC has a plan and aren't afraid to roll with it every season. I mean, they look like a franchise who just seems to "get it"......i kind of wish our FO actually knew what the hell they were doing, instead of looking like they are just making stuff up as they go.
5 straight years making the playoffs (and 6 of the last 7 years).
4 straight years winning the division and at least one playoff game.
The second highest winning percentage (.697) in all of professional sports over the last 5 years.
Includes the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL.
4 straight years with a Top 10 scoring offense. Ranks were #6, #2, #3 and #2.
3 straight years with a Top 5 scoring defense. Ranks were #4, #2 and #1.
4 straight years Top 5 in scoring differential. 5 straight years Top 10.
Please kill the nonsense that our front office doesn't know what it's doing.
If the only standard for success is the Kansas City Chiefs, then every single GM in the league is a miserable failure.
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5 hours ago, 90sBills said:
Agreed. Not every KC move needs to be lauded as genius. What’s more important to me is their overall philosophy of doing business when you have the guy at QB. It affords them the ability to move on from great players, still in their prime, to accumulate pieces for the team.
Outside of Tyreek Hill, there aren't really any great examples of the Chiefs being willing to move on from their top players. It was really a one-time thing, because they desperately needed to upgrade the O-Line and simply couldn't afford to keep him. If the Bills were forced to trade away one of their best players in middle of their Super Bowl window, the fans would have screamed about bad roster management. And in moving on from Hill, their WR group has been amongst the NFL's worst over the past two years. The lack of weapons almost did them in this year.
People are looking at the Bills cap situation vs. the Chiefs cap situation, and acting like they have a superior front office because they have more space. The difference is that Kansas City's pending free agents are Chris Jones and La'Jarius Sneed, along with their starting Left Tackle Donovan Smith, their other starting Defensive Tackle Derrick Nnadi and starting linebacker Willie Gay. Along with another 15-20 depth players. Not remotely the same situation.
5 hours ago, 90sBills said:They drafted Snead in the lower rounds and developed him. Now they’re reaping that reward. By tagging him they will get a first if someone else wants him. It also allows the market to set his price and have the right to match. It’s not genius but it’s definitely a great move.
The Bills have been able to develop AND keep the majority of their best players.
I'm not sure why we are applauding their cap management, because they are possibly losing their best cornerback.
How much credit do the Bills get for getting a 3rd Round comp pick for Tremaine Edmunds, while at the same time upgrading him with Terrell Bernard?
5 hours ago, 90sBills said:NFL teams are closely matched because of the cap. It’s a design purpose. So when you say a team ‘scraped’ by another team that means they beat them. There aren’t style points in the NFL. Great teams make those extra 1 or 2 plays to get the win. In KC’s case this year they did that 3 times in a row against very good teams in the highest of pressured situations. That’s not easy to do. Bills, Balt, SF couldn’t do it.
Unfortunately Bills are a good team but not a great team yet. So that leaves us fans with a lot of feel good ‘what if’ scenarios.
If the ball doesn't bounce off Darrel Luter's foot during the punt return, the Chiefs do not win the Super Bowl.
If Zay Flowers stretches one more inch before fumbling into the endzone, the Chiefs do not win the AFC.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to diminish the Chiefs accomplishment. They are a great team and deserve the Lombardi. But neither of those plays had anything to do with superior roster/cap management over the rest of the NFL.
The Chiefs front office should get credit for putting together a roster consistently good enough to compete for the Super Bowl every year. That isn't easy. But so should the Buffalo Bills, 49ers, Ravens, etc. The difference between those teams is literally 1-2 lucky plays.
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11 hours ago, 90sBills said:
I mean it’s not unwarranted right? They’ve been the most successful team the last 5-6 years. Winning 3 Championships while not being cap strapped. Drafting and developing players to turnover roster after roster without skipping a beat. That’s admirable. They’ve been better than everyone else at doing that. With a copy cat league like the NFL other teams will try to emulate as they should.
Praising their success is warranted.
Pretending that every move they make is genius... that's just going too far.
It reminds me of watching the NFL Draft and how every analyst would LOSE THEIR MINDS when Bill Belichick made a trade. "OH MY GOSH! HE MOVED DOWN THREE PICKS. HE'S PLAYING CHESS WHILE THE REST OF THE LEAGUE PLAYS CHECKERS." Well, not exactly. Now we see that without Tom Brady, the guy is actually a blow average GM and not really great at building a roster.
I mean, Sneed is a good player. He's a free agent. The Chiefs have some options, and are considering tagging him and trading him. Maybe a team will give them a 1st Round Pick. Maybe not. Who really knows? And just because they were able to continue success without Tyreek Hill, doesn't mean they will have no issues getting rid of their top corner.
As I've said before. It's amazing how a few close plays/games can totally change the narrative.
The Chiefs barely scraped by the Bills, Ravens and 49ers. They easily could have lost any of those three games, if only a play or two were flipped. And if that happened, they would be getting tons of criticism for failing to surround Patrick Mahomes with enough receiving weapons, and protecting him with mediocre tackles. Instead the story is that Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Kyle Shanahan are postseason chokers, and the Chiefs are going to match the Patriots dynasty.
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22 hours ago, Utah John said:
Salary cap games are like a drug addiction. You get hooked and you can't get off the cycle.
The only way for the Saints to meet the NFL's required numbers before the middle of March -- just two or three weeks away -- is to buy more drugs. They have to restructure some of their contracts to have them count less now, but they're not going to get clean. They can't even quit cold turkey because the existing obligations won't go away even if the player is cut. In fact cold turkey makes the immediate problem worse.
The Bills are skirting this desperate situation, largely due to Beane breaking his own financial prudence rules and signing Von Miller to that silly contract. The Biils were prime drug candidates after the 13 second debacle, feeling depressed, and more to the point, letting McDermott blame the lack of a pass rush for the huge team and coaching failure. So Beane tried going all-in to fix it by popping a few cap pills. And now the Bills are on the edge of a total addiction collapse in the near future, Josh Allen or no Josh Allen. The Dawson Knox contract will also be a burden soon, with no good solution in sight.
Joe Buscaglia had a good article in the Atlantic a couple of weeks ago about how the Bills could get by for the coming season. Part of the cure involved buying more drugs. But it would let the team attempt to continue its success by retaining just enough good players, hoping the draft yields 5 or more starters, or good reserves now who become starters when current players age out, and praying for no more significant injuries.
If there's any good news, it's that Miami is in about the same situation, but debating whether to pay Tua with cap drugs, or try to replace him with a cheap rookie. Tough choice since Tua has never shown he's a championship QB, just a system guy who can beat up on weak teams. So the Bills and Dolphins are both vulnerable. You know who's not? The Jets. Watch out. If they get a QB (and can avoid cap death for the Rodgers contract) and can fix their O line, they could win the division.
The Bills cap situation is nowhere near the catastrophe people want to make it.
In the past, you had teams like the Saints (buying up every top free agent on the market) or the Rams (trading away top picks for star players). With the exception of the Von Miller move two years ago... literally one player contract, Brandon Beane has been consistent with his plan of building through the draft and getting low-priced free agents to fill-out the depth.
Annual contract restructures are done by literally every team, including the 3x World Champion Kansas City Chiefs we have been desperately trying to catch. They only become an issue when the player becomes old/ineffective and you can no longer part ways. Restructuring Josh Allen every year holds zero risk. Because when he becomes old and ineffective, the team falls apart and needs a rebuild anyway. We will continue using this method every year to clear $20-30 million, and it will be OK. Trust me. They aren't doing this with every contract on the team. Only a handful each year who strategically make sense.
The only current contracts the Bills have which are really a burden are with Miller (as already mentioned), and possibly Stefon Diggs. Both have outs in 2024. So if we can get by one more year "kicking the can down the road" - we can clear a lot of cap space by next offseason. The idea that our cap problems will continue to compound infinitely simply isn't true.
Everyone freaked out last year, because the Bills were leaving huge holes at Middle Linebacker and Right Tackle. Then Terrell Bernard and Spencer Brown developed and stepped up. Everything was OK. So as long as Beane continues to draft well, we can continue rolling. We enter this offseason with questions at WR2, DE, DT and FS. We should be able to address at least two of those spots with minimal cap space, and the others with draft picks.
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21 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:
We're probably a year away from medicine. Von, and Knox are fairly obvious candidates for next year.
You could also potentially make several moves this year, but then it probably shifts your draft strategy. If you trade douglas, and cut white - you save a bunch, but now depth is absolutely barren - so you likely have to sign one and draft another 1 or 2. We need at least 1 safety for sure, cutting poyer just opens up another spot for a safety. Same for Morse, you may feel comfortable plugging in bates, but you're actively downgrading at that point.
To me its more of being very careful and methodical on extensions, term of extensions, age of players, etc. Avoid tacking on tons of void years this year to any free agent contracts, and realistically look for players you want on the roster for multiple seasons. And this is a draft that needs to have some day 1 contributors at potentially WR, S, and DT/DE.
The best way to avoid salary cap hell is by drafting well.
The Saints were headed into a very bad financial situation several years back. But then the 2017 draft class netted them 5 very good starters (Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara and Hendrickson). That allowed them to extend their window significantly.
Brandon Beane has been a solid/good drafter during his tenure here, regardless of what some fans say. He consistently gets 2-3 starting caliber players every single year, allowing the team to replace outgoing veterans (such as Tremaine Edmunds with Terrell Bernard) and get little to no drop-off. I'm confident the same thing will happen this season.
What the Bills could REALLY use is a homerun draft. Something closer to what 2017-2018 netted us.
- Instead of getting 2-3 solid guys, if we could end up with 4-5.
- Instead of just being solid starters, maybe we could get an All-Pro or two in the mix.
- It would also be nice for rookies to make a more immediate impact. It seems like the majority of Beane's picks are slow-burners. They do little to nothing as rookies and then take 3-4 years to really get going. The most recent examples are Ed Oliver and AJ Epenesa.
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I've been watching this team since the late 1980s. Now my kids are the same age I was during the Super Bowl years.
My grandfather passed away without seeing the Bills win the Super Bowl. Now my father is over 70.
Yeah, it's nice to have a player like Josh Allen under center. But I've experienced having great players before. Even the drought teams had some fantastic individual talents that I enjoyed watching like LeSean McCoy, Kyle Williams, etc.
What I've never experienced is seeing my team a top the football world... not even just ONE time. When I sit back and consider that Brady and Mahomes have enough rings to fill up two hands, while my own family is on the 4th generation of fandom and still has nothing to show for it. That's why my full focus is on the Lombardi.
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On 2/20/2024 at 5:44 PM, beebe said:
And yet despite this, the Bills closed as 2.5-point favorites and the over/under for the game was bet lower, closing at 45.5 and 46 everywhere. If losing a LB and a replacement level backup was significant and meant as much as people here suggest, we would have seen money come in on the Chiefs or we would have seen money come in on the over or we would have seen Travis Kelce over catches/yards get bet way over. We didn't see any of these things. The global betting market, which accommodates enormous six-figure limits at most sportsbooks, kept the Bills as 2.5-point favorites; and the prop market, which is lower limits but still very sharp overall, barely budged on Kelce's game projections.
The Bills defense, who had as many regulars missing as the Chiefs did (KC entered without starting safety Cook and starting DT Nnadi, then lost safety Edwards and LB Gay early) were tasked with stopping a Chiefs offense that consisted of:
- Patrick Mahomes
- Travis Kelce
- Isaiah Pacheco
- Two HORRIBLY graded tackles (Smith, Taylor)
- A very strong interior OL (All-Pro LG Thuney exited 3rd quarter with injury)
- WR's consisting of: Rashee Rice, Justin Watson (0 catches), MVS (2 catches), Hardman (1 catch, 1 backbreaking fumble), Richie James (0 catches). Three of KC's receivers from this horrid group missed with injury (Skyy Moore, Justyn Ross, Kadarius Toney) as did their best pass-catching back (Jerick McKinnon.)
Again, if you can't stop this offense, not sure what to say.
Umm. The Chiefs won the Super Bowl.
You can downplay them all you want, but the Ravens and 49ers failed to stop them too.
Betting lines should not be taken as gospel, or an accurate representation of anything on the football field.
The goal of Vegas is to get away with as much of the public's money as possible. Period.
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On 2/17/2024 at 8:22 AM, beebe said:
On what planet isn't it comparable? The Bills had almost every single player on offense available. All five starting offensive linemen, all their running backs, Josh Allen, all their tight ends, and every receiver except for Gabe Davis—and most of us think the offense has run better with Davis off the field. In fact, his absence helped Shakir get more snaps, and Shakir finished with a team-best 7 catches. So the Bills were down Davis on offense, while the Chiefs were down Toney (sucks), Moore (decent but mostly sucks), McKinnon (great weapon for KC) and lost Thuney (All Pro) in the third quarter. Nothing to really write home about for either team on offense.
Defensively, after the first series, the Chiefs were without starting safety Mike Edwards and starting linebacker Willie Gay. They began the game without starting DT Derrick Nnadi. Their original starting safety Bryan Cook (Edwards is a backup) was injured a month earlier.
Buffalo had its entire defensive line available to play. They had their two starting safeties Hyde and Poyer who played every snap. Taron Johnson, Rasul Douglas and Dane Jackson all played 100% of the snaps. Yes, the Bills lost Tre White early season—but his loss necessitated the trade for Douglas who gave them better play than White was giving them. So 9 to 10 of the Bills' defensive regulars on defense played to capacity, and 10 (arguably 11) of their best offensive players played. Buffalo had access to 19 or 20 of their 22 best players overall. If you read this forum, you'd think they played with about six healthy players.
The biggest loss was obviously Bernard, which led to Klein being on the field, who the Chiefs targeted repeatedly. But again, the collective absences - clustered as they were - weren't what many here make them out to be. The Bills began the week as 2.5 point favorites and finished the week as 2.5 point favorites. There is such a thing as building roster depth and developing young players who can perform when needed.
If being without Terrel Bernard and a couple replacement level defensive backups is enough to tank your season, then you weren't very good to begin with.
The Chiefs replaced DT Nnadi with a heavier dose of journeyman Mike Pennel (signed off the street midseason) and Matt Dickerson (undrafted, journeyman, practice squad regular); they gave Willie Gay's snaps to offseason signing Dru Tranquill (most snaps he had since Week 12) and LB Leo Chenal (3rd round pick in his second year.) They gave safety Edwards' snaps to fourth-round rookie Chamarri Conner, who played 99% of snaps and actually performed great. Thuney was replaced by Nick Allegretti, the try-hard backup who was a former 7th-round pick. Outside of Kelce and Rice, Mahomes was throwing balls to MVS, Noah Gray, Mecole Hardman, Justin Watson and Clyde Edwards. The degree of difficulty wasn't exactly high! It is without question the worst collection of offensive talent the Bills will face in the next several years when going against the Chiefs. And yet, the Chiefs offense did what the Chiefs offense did in prior playoff meetings vs the Bills — even when the Bills were fully healthy, even when the Bills had top-5 level defenses — they ran circles around them.
It wasn't so much about the sheer number of players the Bills were missing across the lineup.
It was the number of players they were missing at one position, and how that matched up against Kansas City.
Everyone knows the Chiefs offense runs primarily through Travis Kelce. In our Defensive system, the Tight Ends are usually covered by Linebackers.
The Bills were down both of their starting LBs in Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard. Their top backup Tyrell Dodson was gutting it through a shoulder injury, and then hurt his ankle during the game. They were also down their #5 backer in Baylon Spector. This left rookie Dorian Williams and AJ Klein (who was signed off the street two weeks earlier, and also got injured during the game) to handle probably the best TE in football.
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Good News:
The Bills championship window will remain open as long as Josh Allen can play at an elite level, and Brandon Beane can put a good roster around him.
I have very few doubts this team will be among the top contenders again next season, if they can stay healthy at the key spots. The worries about this year's salary cap are totally overblown. I actually think the Bills are in better financial shape than even last offseason. There are some common-sense restructures (Allen, Rasul Douglas, Taron Johnson) and cuts that will clear space. I'm sad to say goodbye to Tre White, but we will be fine without him. Same with Jordan Poyer/Micah Hyde, who really showed their age this season. If we can bring back DaQuan Jones and either Leonard Floyd/AJ Epenesa, the D-Line will be fine.
The big need is WR and this draft is loaded in that area. After that, we likely need a pair of safeties. But good ones can be found on Day 2 of the draft, and in the bargain-bin of free agency. No team is better at coaching up the secondary. The rest of the draft will be for getting younger and looking towards the future. Every other position is in good shape. No need for a reset/reboot.
Bad news:
Allen probably isn't an elite QB when he isn't using his legs. The Bills tried this year to take that away from his game, almost certainly in an attempt to extend his future career. The offense was terribly inconsistent, and it almost cost us the playoffs. When he started running again, the team went on a win-streak and claimed the division.
When will age catch-up with our quarterback is anyone's guess. But that is the main reason I feel a sense of urgency. Not because of free agency or the salary cap.
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3 hours ago, msw2112 said:
I agree with this. I love Allen. He's the most physically talented QB in the game and he's mentally tough. He has carried the Bills to a lot of success and willed some victories. I'm glad he's the Bills' QB and I wouldn't want anyone else. That said, he still could improve his situational awareness. On the last drive against KC, the ball should not have been thrown into the end zone when it was. Even if successful, it would have left too much time on the clock for the Chiefs to come back and score. The correct play was to get the first down and milk the clock down before throwing it in the end zone. Diggs was wide open underneath (as we all know) and that's where the ball should have gone. It's possible that the play call was the problem - I don't know - but the guys going deep (like Shakir) opened up Diggs underneath which would have netted a first down and the opportunity to manage the clock before going to the end zone.
At this stage of their careers, I believe that Mahomes is better at this aspect of the game. A perfect example is the last drive in regulation in the Super Bowl, when the Chiefs drove down the field and kicked the game tying FG with 8 seconds left. They tried to get a TD to win it, were not able to, but when they kicked the FG, there was no time left on the clock for the 49ers to drive down to win. They gave themselves the best chance to win in that situation. The Bills final drive against the Chiefs should have been managed in this manner.
So I think that Allen has room to improve in this area, but it has nothing to do with Mahomes. Allen and Mahomes are not on the field at the same time. Allen has outplayed Mahomes numerous times when their teams have played each other. When the game is on the line, however, Mahomes makes the right plays at the right time, and manages the situation perfectly to give his team the best chance to win. Allen is not quite there yet.
Not sure I agree here.
Allen had his WR open in the endzone with a 3 point deficit, and he should have ignored him in favor of milking the clock? That seems like a really conservative mindset, and in some ways could be considered "playing for the tie." It's hard to score in the Redzone, so I think you take the shot when it presents itself. I think he did the correct thing 100%.
I can guarantee that if Mahomes had a WR open in the endzone in the Super Bowl, he would have taken the shot too. The time ran down because the 49ers were keeping everything in front of them, and they were unable to do anything else. Not because he's superior in situational awareness. And at the end of the day, he was unable to give his team the lead in regulation. That also left the 49ers with a chance to win the game.
Again... this is why I get frustrated with how the media analyzes the legacy of football players and teams. There are SO MANY factors that go into every win/loss. There are SO MANY players who have a role. It truly is a game of inches, and unlike other sports where you have a best of 7 game series, the NFL is one and done. The difference between hoisting the Lombardi trophy and going home a loser... can literally come down to the ball bouncing off the foot of a special teams player that nobody has ever heard of.
People feel the need to prop up Mahomes over every other QB because of his Super Bowl rings. So they come up with all these "reasons" that he's vastly superior to Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, etc., etc. They used to do the same thing when comparing Tom Brady to Peyton Manning. Or Joe Montana to Dan Marino. In truth, there are lots of reasons why the Chiefs have 3 recent titles and the Bills have none... and virtually none of them have to do with Allen being an inferior QB to Mahomes.
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You are buying into the media narrative.
There are 22 starters on every team and almost 50 players on the roster competing every single week. But they want to make everything about the Quarterback position, and some magical ability to "will their team to victory" in the big game.
Patrick Mahomes (as usual) is getting all the credit for Sunday's game. But the truth is, he did almost nothing until the final quarter. His defense played incredible all day and kept the game within reach. The 49ers had a terrible muffed punt, which led to an easy one-play touchdown. That was followed up a missed extra point, which allowed the Chiefs to tie the game and send it to overtime. Yes, he took advantage when SF left the door open. But those two special teams plays don't happen, and Mahomes almost certainly comes out on the losing end.
Josh Allen has played GREAT in his postseason career. 272 yards per game. 64.6 completion percentage. 100 passer rating. 21 touchdowns and only 4 turnovers. The media wants to turn him into a playoff choker (because everything must be about the QB), but the reality is that he's anything but. It's a ridiculously LAZY take. But football is complicated and it's easier for these clowns to argue on tv about Tom Brady vs. Joe Montana vs. Mahomes, as opposed to doing a deep-dive into strategy, play-calling, matchups, etc. etc.
The real question is why Stefon Diggs never shows up in the playoffs? Why does the pass rush (and defense as a whole) always disappear in the big playoff games?
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I keep saying this... but there isn't a magic bullet that will suddenly break the Bills through the playoff wall.
In the NFL, there just isn't a huge gap between the top and bottom teams. Each year, there are a handful of top contenders who are on roughly the same level. Once we reach the Divisional/Championship Rounds, those teams start playing each other and knocking each other out. Sometimes it comes down to which team is healthiest. Sometimes one team is hot and the other team is in a slump. Sometimes the game is close and comes down to a couple lucky bounces.
Back in 2020, the Bills were really an inexperienced fringe Super Bowl contender and the Chiefs were the class of the NFL. They would have needed everything to work their way to pull-off the upset in the Championship Game, but it just didn't happen. Since that point (three years in a row now), we've lost key defensive players that have hurt us badly against elite QBs in the playoffs. 2021 was Tre White on Thanksgiving. 2022 was Micah Hyde early and Von Miller on Thanksgiving. This year was Matt Milano early, and then Terrell Bernard, Christian Benford and a huge chunk of the secondary at the end.
The Bills have been the NFL's second-best regular season team over the last four years (only topped by the Chiefs). In that same time period, we have seen the Buccaneers and Rams win a Super Bowl. We have seen the Bengals, Eagles and 49ers make the Super Bowl. Those are the only six teams in the league who can argue at having more success than us.
I'm as frustrated as anybody. Hopefully the Bills can continue to put themselves in position, and (at least) one of these years the mathematical odds will work in our favor.
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20 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:
It's not "ball washing" when he's the best player int he league by miles, and will be no lower than 2nd in the GOAT conversation with a Super Bowl win on sunday. He could retire today and he'd be a first ballot unanimous hall of Famer. He's earned ever ounce of praise he gets.
But he's really not the "best player in the league by miles." That's the issue.
Statistically speaking, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are almost identical over the last 4 seasons. Yards, Touchdowns, Etc. Even their head-to-head record is 4-3, with most of those games coming down to the final minutes and finishing less than one-score apart. The only obvious separation between Mahomes/Allen is in postseason success. The Bills win in the regular season. The Chiefs win in the playoffs and end up in the Super Bowl.
Of course the media is going to turn all of that upon the Quarterback (or possibly Head Coach depending on which narrative they are pushing at the time). But that's a lazy take. In the 13 seconds game, Allen put the winning score on the board and then watched from the bench while the rest of the team choked it away. A few weeks ago, he fired the go-ahead TD into the Endzone...only to have his Left Tackle get knocked into him during the release. Two plays later, his kicker missed the chance to at least tie.
Mahomes is great. And he deserves plenty of praise.
But it's the same argument we saw in the past with Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. One gets propped up higher simply because of team success.
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On 2/3/2024 at 1:40 PM, Mr. WEO said:
he's shown no aptitude for evaluating WR talent.
This is just a silly take.
- He traded for Stefon Diggs, who in 4 seasons has put together the 4 best receiving seasons in Bills history.
- In free agency, he landed a premium slot receiver in Cole Beasley. He also got very good value for John Brown, who put up 1,000 yards in his first season here.
- So far, he hasn't drafted a WR before the 4th Round. Yet we got starting-level production from Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir had a nice breakout season this year.
If you want to argue that Brandon Beane hasn't used enough resources on the WR room, I guess that's fair. But we also need to remember that we have 53 roster spots and 22 starting roles, with only so many draft picks and limited cap space. You can't address everything every single year. Beane has admitted he wanted a WR in last year's draft, but he didn't want to trade up and they were all gone. So he took the best receiving threat remaining, which was Dalton Kincaid. Looking at the upcoming draft, he probably made the correct decision. Kincaid is developing into an elite Tight End, and this year's draft is absolutely loaded with talent. We will get at least one, if not multiple WR prospects.
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9 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
I do think it is funny. I've heard so many of the talking heads predict that our window is closing, or that our window is closed now. Many of these talking heads predicted our window would be shut this year. Quite a few predicted the Bills would miss the playoffs and when we were 6-6 they most have been jumping for joy at their prognostication skills.
How in the heck can a team's window ever be closed with JA as the QB? The Bills lost in the weirdest of ways to mediocre/bad teams this year, not once, or twice but three times and still found a way to win the division and finish as the 2 seed. While missing their best defensive player. The Bills are not going anywhere anytime soon.
Yes. The Bills window will remain open as long as Josh Allen is playing at this level.
The only question is... how long can he continue playing at this level?
We aren't talking about a pocket passer who drops to the ground whenever a hit is coming. That's a major reason Tom Brady was able to continue playing strong well into his 40s. No, we are talking about a QB that plays like a fullback half the time, and has no problem stiff-arming Defensive Linemen and running over Linebackers. That physical style is bound to catch-up at some point.
Early this year, we saw what happens when Allen stops running, and it's not good. The Bills aren't a hugely explosive offense. But the reason they are consistently Top 5 in the NFL is because of their high 3rd-Down conversion rate and effectiveness in the Red Zone. They get that edge from Allen's legs. Take it away, and they become inconsistent.
My belief is that Allen is more Brett Favre/Ben Roethlisberger than he is Cam Newton. So when his mobility eventually breaks down later in his career, he will still be a very good passer in the NFL. But will he still be great? That's the concern. Big Ben had big stats and kept making the Pro Bowl throughout his career. But he won his last Super Bowl at 26 years old.
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2 hours ago, The Red King said:
One more time, for those in the back, 'scripted' and 'fixed' are different things.
The NFL can have interest in how a game plays out and use the refs to nudge it that way. If it still doesn't go the way the want, oh well. If there is fixing, it's more "We want <x> to win, see what you can do." rather then "<x> must win at all costs!!!". That's why you hear the phrase "Yeah, we had to beat them and the refs!". Look at the two key, blatent, PI non-calls in the AFCCG for a potential example of the former.
Also, consider the league may have interests beyond win/lose, such as keeping games close to retain viewers, or covering a spread.
And yet again, since some people apparently can't read, I do not in any way, shape or form think the league is scripted. That would be an untenable logistical nightmare. But again, 'scripted' and 'fixed' are not the same thing.
I will never understand how people can live in this world, and not be the slightest bit skeptical about things around them. All the greed, theft, cheating, stealing that goes on. But if you aren't convinced that everything coming from a multi-billion dollar industry is 100% legit, then you are a crazy tinfoil hat conspiracy lunatic...
The NFL itself makes jokes about "the script" in their marketing. But very few people are claiming the NFL is scripted (like WWE Wrestling for example). Maybe a few on social media trying to gain clicks and attention. That is a misdirection and misrepresentation of the argument. The fear that MOST people have is that games/situations could sometimes be manipulated into favorable situations for the league. And that unfortunately is very plausible. Many players themselves believe the NFL helps push for certain outcomes using the refs. The most recent example is DeSean Jackson, who just stated a few days ago that the NFL was trying to get the Chiefs into the Super Bowl because of Taylor Swift.
Thanks to Swift, the NFL has free marketing to a MASSIVE demographic that it had virtually zero representation in before late 2023. Anyone who thinks that doesn't have value to a company is kidding themselves. Even if 95% of young girls drop the NFL when Kelce retires or that relationship ends, the league still picked up a HUGE number of new viewers.
Some years back, it was revealed that Buffalo was trying to sign Michael Vick (after his stint in prison), and Roger Goodell got involved to help push him towards a more stable team (which ended up being Philadelphia). Now what purpose could the league possibly have in doing such a thing? Seems kind-of unfair to the Bills. The NFL was already making billions. But they realized that Vick was a PR nightmare waiting to happen, and they didn't want him being handled by a team with a messy front office.
And even if the NFL itself isn't involved in manipulating games, you still have to worry about refs being paid off (see the NBA), coaches/players doing the same (how many have been caught betting on the side already), and the billions upon billions that come from gambling/fantasy football.
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If Marv Levy could lead a team to 4 straight Super Bowl appearances (with one loss coming down to a missed field goal), then it's ridiculous to say he was incapable of leading the Bills to a Super Bowl win.
His presence as this team's Head Coach had nothing to do with Scott Norwood kicking wide right. If that one ball goes through the uprights, he's forever logged in NFL history as a Super Bowl winner. Instead, the narrative is that he possessed some kind of internal flaw that made him unable to get it done. In reality, he was a very good HC that suffered bad luck.
The unfortunate truth of this sport is that coaches/players can have hugely successful careers that span 10-20 years... but their story and their final legacy will often come down to a single game, and sometimes a single decision or single play.
- If Drew Bledsoe never gets injured, Tom Brady never gets a shot in the first place. If the Tuck Rule play is called a fumble, the Pats lose that game on a Brady turnover and it's also likely that Bledsoe regains his starting job the next season.
- Jim Kelly and John Elway were in the same draft together. Kelly played until he was 36 and retired, forever known as a QB who couldn't get a ring. At 36 years old, Elway was 0-3 in the big game and still had zero rings. Two years later, he was a back-to-back champion and his entire legacy had changed.
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13 Seconds was a heartbreaking loss which will go down with the worst in Buffalo Bills history. But I spent that offseason convincing myself we were on the verge of a championship, and there was no way a talent like Josh Allen could be denied from eventually getting a ring.
Over the last two years, I've come back down to Earth. Losses hurt less, because I really don't expect anything from this franchise anymore. Seasons come. Seasons go. And every February is the same, with someone else hoisting the Lombardi trophy.
My full expectation is that Allen will someday become the next Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon. Clearly an all-time great at the QB position, but unable to land a championship. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes will push to surpass Tom Brady in Super Bowls won.
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23 hours ago, May Day 10 said:
The thing that has cost the bills 2 Championships imo is the opportunity cost between von miller and a top receiver
Not sure who they could have gotten. Aj brown? Devante adams? Dhop? But a lot of resources go into that von contract
Following the 2021 AFC Divisional loss, the general consensus amongst most Bills fans was that:
- The big thing missing was "a closer" at the pass rush position
- Gabe Davis was going to be a superstar #2 WR
Until the ACL injury on Thanksgiving, Miller was playing great for us. And at that time, most felt that Brandon Beane had done a great job in landing him. Sure there were some who always hated the contract. But it wasn't until the injury that Bills fans started raising questions. And it wasn't until Miller returned Week 5 and was totally ineffective... then suddenly everyone started acting like signing him was an obvious mistake.
In regards to Davis, it wasn't until about 4-5 games into the 2022 season when fans started questioning him as the #2. If the Bills had traded for A.J. Brown or Davante Adams after a 4 touchdown postseason game, fans would have thrown an absolute fit. And I highly doubt that a better WR opposite Stefon Diggs would have made any difference in the Bengals playoff game.
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There isn't a magic bullet that suddenly puts the Bills into the Super Bowl.
Yes, the roster can always be upgraded. There are always going to be coaching mistakes we can look back on. But even if replace Sean McDermott with your favorite coaching prospect and add multiple Pro-Bowl talents in the draft, this team will still be faced with beating a trio of the Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, 49ers, Eagles, Lions or whoever the league's best are that season.
What people don't realize is that every single season there are around 4-5 legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Once you hit the Divisional/Championship rounds, those teams start knocking each other off. To be the team on top, you need to be healthy. You need to be playing your best ball at the end of the season. And yes, you need a little bit of luck on your side. For every Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Montana who make it look easy, there are TONS of elite QBs and great teams who STRUGGLE to break through in the postseason. Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon never won rings. John Elway took until the final two seasons of his career. Steve Young, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees only scraped out one victory. Peyton Manning took years before finally busting through.
The Bills have put themselves in that contender conversation now 4 years in a row. For different reasons, they just haven't been able to get over the hump.
- In 2020, they were on the back-end of the conversation and needed the Chiefs to have an off-game to upset them. They didn't.
- In 2021, they lost Tre White in the final stretch. Everything else seemed to be on track, but it literally came down to a coin flip and they lost.
- In 2022, they had a ton of injuries and the Damar Hamlin thing. They weren't playing their best at the end of the season.
- In 2023, injuries once again hit in the final few games of the season.
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1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:
If he caught that bomb in the chiefs game all the chatter would’ve gone away
But he didn't catch it.
And that was a theme over the final 2 months of the season. Not getting open, frequent drops and inability to make contested plays.
It's not like Diggs hasn't been facing extra attention his ENTIRE career in Buffalo. That's not an excuse. The Bills haven't had an elite #2 to draw coverage away since Cole Beasley was first cut. Not an excuse either. And every single WR in the league will have missed throws/plays on film that could have changed their stat line. Also not an excuse. Bottom line is, the production for Diggs fell off a cliff in the back-half of the season.
Most quarterbacks aren't Tom Brady. And most wide receivers aren't Jerry Rice. Age is a real thing for professional athletes, and it has nothing to do with talent or competitive drive. Playing to 35-40 years old at a high level is extremely rare. Look at the shelf life for most top WRs in the NFL, and you will see quite a large number start declining shortly after their 30th birthday. The most recent that comes to mind is Julio Jones. And once "Father Time" comes calling, it's over.
Hopefully Diggs was dealing with an undisclosed injury that really slowed him down. Because otherwise, the harsh reality is that he has probably hit the age wall.
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Yesterday's game is the perfect example why head coaching changes are overrated.
Yes, the decisions that coaches make are HUGELY important to the outcome of games. And in retrospect, if Dan Campbell decides to kick those field goals instead of going for it on 4th Down, the Lions almost certainly win the game and go to the Super Bowl. Running the ball at the goal line also cost them a timeout, which would have allowed the defense one more crack at getting the ball.
But at the same time, you absolutely cannot blame Campbell for the outcome of those plays. On both 4th Downs, receivers were open and dropped the ball. That's execution by the players. Not the coach's fault. The running play was definitely more risky than a pass, but he was trying to catch the defense off-guard and it simply didn't work.
Switch Campbell out for Bill Belichick/Don Shula/Vince Lombardi, and maybe the outcome of this game is different. But maybe some other games along the way don't workout for the Lions, because those coaches were less aggressive. Bottom line... what most coaches get criticized/praised for during their careers falls back 95% on the players. Whether to punt, go for it, kick the field goal. When to run trick plays. With the benefit of hindsight (and knowing whether it worked or not), decisions can look brilliant or stupid.
In my opinion, offensive/defensive coordinators are more important... because they are matching scheme to talent.
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3 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:
Would think it would need to be by later today as isn't 4:00 PM today the deadline for PS call ups? The team may want to use a call up to replace him.
Not sure they have the flexibility to make any Practice Squad moves at CB either way. Only two players can get called up in a single week.
With Gabe Davis already out and Stefon Diggs injured, they will almost certainly use one of those spots on a wide receiver. Probably Andy Isabella. Otherwise we go into the game pretty short-handed at WR.
The other call-up will either be a Linebacker (AJ Klein) or a punter (Matt Hauck). If for some reason they don't call up Klein, that would be a huge indicator that Terrell Bernard plays. If they need both spots, then don't be surprised if they put Sam Martin on IR.
Unfortunately, if Taron Johnson doesn't play...we are probably looking at them shuffling around the entire back-end. Some combination of Cam Lewis, Siran Neal and Damar Hamlin rotating around the safety/slot CB roles. And then Jordan Poyer moving up to coverage linebacker at times.
Ryan Bates traded
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
The Chiefs got an early 5th Round Pick for a backup O-Lineman? Total genius move.
Wait... it was the Bills who made this trade? What an awful decision getting rid of depth for a worthless Day 3 pick.