jwhit34
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Posts posted by jwhit34
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We have a friend that played rugby at Northwestern when Tasker was there. He said the first time Tasker showed up for rugby they found out in about 10 seconds that he was such a superior athlete compared to the rest of them, like he was playing a totally different game than they were.
Very cool watching those highlights, I remember most of those plays, especially the hit on the punt of the Rams guy, I remember being at that game in particular.
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CrosbyBeasley,GabeStills,NashDiggs &YoungBrown-
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I just looked at the cap page and the primary takeaway is that the Bills/Beane have done a masterful job so far structuring contracts. Outside of the cornerstones they have identified (White, Dawkins, Diggs and soon Allen and Edmunds), they can get out of almost any contract without a huge dead cap hit. Three prime examples: Jefferson, Butler and John Brown. All would have about a $1 million dead cap hit but if they want to move on from any they can save $7-9 million each. Morse would be a $5 million dead cap hit but they would still save $5 million.
Bottom line is they have a good track record now and I think they will figure out how to keep everyone they want to keep.
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26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Couple of points:
1. They are only $100m over if the cap does go down to the agreed floor. PFT seemed to think in December teams (because a lot of teams close to the cap would be hurt be a reduction) are lobbying the league to keep the cap stagnant at around $195-200m. That takes their overspend down to about $80m if it happens and in fairness to the Saints when they were long term planning they'd have been projecting for a cap tat about $225m in 2021.... which would mean the gap would only have been about $50m. So yes, they are in trouble, even if the cap stays stagnant but it isn't all their fault.
2. They did the right thing. They loaded up on free agents the past couple of years for a last un with Drew Brees - Jared Cook, Demario Davis, Malcolm Jenkins, Malcolm Brown, Kwon Alexander, Emmanuel Sanders, Latavius Murray, signing decent priced backup QBs in Bridgewater, Winston and Hill.... when you have a vet QB at the end you try and give him ready made win now guys in free agency and then you pay the piper later on. We have seen it this year with New England and we have seen it now with the Saints.
3. There are a few relatively easy cuts (the likes of Sanders, Brown, Janoris Jenkins) plus Drew retiring and an easy extension for Lattimore that crashes his hit for 2021 and backloads his money. That gets them about half way there and that was almost certainly the basis of their planning. The problem is the pandemic means that even if the cap stays pretty stable they remain $25m or thereabouts short.... and if it goes down to the agreed floor they are $50m short. I think they probably have to restructure Thomas and kick the can on his deal (which I think ideally they wouldn't do) and make a decision upfront on their expensive offensive line.
4. It is not a good situation and it is cap hell. Once you are in the position of having no choice but to cut contributing starters that is the definition of cap hell. It is why I have always insisted the Bills were not in "cap hell" when Beane took over.... though it was a nice soundbite for the new regime to throw out. This is what cap hell looks like and it is worse than the Patriots situation where they had a 2020 cap crunch that cleared almost totally in one year (though the opt outs then made that a bit trickier, but had all things been equal the Pats would have been in clear cap waters again in 2021) this situation is a 3 year cleanup job in New Orleans.
This is an excellent synopsis. Here are my calculations, presuming that the league bumps the cap up to around $200 million, leaving them $80 million over:
- Brees retiring saves about $13.5 million
- Releasing Kwon Alexander saves $13.4 million
- Releasing Sanders saves $6.5 million
- Taysom Hill is prime candidate for restructure, release would save $5 million, restructure potentially more, call it $7 million
- The above 4 saves $40.5 million, halfway there
- That's where it gets tough: Oline possibilities: Ramczyk ($11m), Armstead ($5.6m), Nick Easton ($6m)
- Janoris Jenkins cut would save $7m, restructure less, M. Brown cut would save $5m
- Probably can find 4-5 more that will save an average of $2m each
If you notice there are a lot of players who if released their dead cap is close to equal or even more than the cap hit if on the roster. The years of restructure and going for it while they have had Brees is really coming back to bite them now. While they have been able to restructure their way out of it in the past I think they will have to make far tougher decisions this offseason and they could be pretty bad in 2021.
Problem is they have 46 under contract so if they release 8-10 from above now they have 36-38 players so at least 15 roster spots to fill. They need money for their draft picks and to fill the rest of the roster spots, so they would probably need at least $20 million. They will have to get very creative.
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It is interesting to hear many talk about how great the BIlls' weapons are in the pass game. It's amazing that it is a collection of WRs that in some way no one else wanted:
Stefon Diggs: A 5th round pick, granted the Bills gave up a first round pick plus others (which may or may not amount to anything) but at some level Minnesota decided they didn't need him anymore and wasn't part of their future so they traded him.
John Brown: Originally a low 3rd rounder, both Arizona and Baltimore didn't see the need to retain him (and it wasn't like there was a logjam at WR in Baltimore).
Cole Beasley: Undrafted FA, he had a very good career at Dallas and they had a lot of WRs, but still it wasn't like he was a super hot free agent two years ago
Gabriel Davis: 4th rounder
Isaiah McKenzie: 5th rounder, cut by Denver, waiver claim
Credit the talent evaluators for seeing something in each of them, the coaches for figuring out how to use their talents and out how to make them mesh, and mostly the players themselves for taking full advantage of their opportunity in Buffalo (and that of course includes Josh Allen). It's pretty neat.
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Here are the QB stat lines for the Bills 2 playoff games:
BIlls vs. Colts Comp Att Comp % Yds Yds/Att TD Int Rush Yds TD QBR
Allen 26 35 74% 324 9.3 3 0 11 54 1 85.0
Rivers 27 46 59% 309 6.7 2 0 1 -1 0 92.1
Bills vs. Ravens
Allen 23 37 62% 206 5.6 1 0 7 3 0 51.0
Jackson 14 24 58% 162 6.8 0 1 9 34 0 55.6
Not only are Allen's stats better in both games, does anyone watching either game, based solely on what they saw, conclude Rivers and/or Jackson outplayed Allen? No way. In the Colts game, Allen is superior in every statistical category and vs. the Ravens the only stat that Jackson's better is yards per attempt (and more rushing yards).
It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this.
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Interesting that the openings are now down to 4:
Houston
Detroit
LA Chargers
Philadelphia
Houston and Detroit have been open for the longest, they must be waiting for someone still in the playoffs which would most likely mean Bieniemy, Leftwich or Daboll. It is interesting that there is now talk that Chargers will go with a defensive coach since they have gone with offense guys since 2006.
It only takes one, but the chance Daboll gets one of the jobs is shrinking fast.
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Also on the 50+ kicks, he was 4-6 but one was the 61 yarder, so really he's 4-5 from 50+ which puts him just slightly higher than the survivor rookies' 77%. When you have a relatively small sample size, which is the case with the > 50 yarders (Bass had 6, average survivor kickers 3.84) 1 data point skews the percentages.
Bottom line: Bass is good. One of the family favorite movies is Remember the Titans so of course we refer to the Bills kicker as Ronnie Bass (backup QB - Sunshine).
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Injured this year but 2019 he had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage (650 run, 410 pass). If all are healthy, my ranking is:
1. Freeman
2. Yeldon
3. Williams
2021 season? Give Williams a shot to be in the mix.
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Interested to know what everyone thinks, right now I am picking none. The only job he seems to be one of the top candidates for is the LA Chargers and I don't think he's going to get that one either.
My current guesses:
Atlanta - Raheem Morris
Detroit - Robert Saleh
Jacksonville - Bryon Leftwich or Urban Meyer
Houston - Eric Bieniemy
NY Jets - Doug Pederson
Philadelphia - Probably go with a defensive coach, either Eberflus or maybe Marvin Lewis, but they are a wild card
Chargers - If Meyer gets Jacksonville, Leftwich, if not Arthur Smith or Daboll but I'm leaning Smith
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The thing that would make a deep playoff run sweeter for many on TBD: Christian Wade and Duke Williams active vs. the Ravens.
I'm surprised people didn't want them to bring in Da'Rick Rogers last week for Colts intel...even though it's been a few years.
I still don't see it with either of them.
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So here's all the open HC jobs:
Detroit
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Jacksonville
NY Jets
LA Chargers
Houston
Here are the hottest coaching names (in no order):
Brian Daboll
Eric Bieniemy
Robert Saleh
Byron Leftwich
Arthur Smith
Matt Eberflus
Greg Roman
And the B list of guys that may be tied to a specific opening:
Raheem Morris (Atlanta)
Urban Meyer (Jacksonville)
Marvin Lewis
Now add Pederson to the mix
per the ESPN "Matchmaker" game, the best matches by team:
Detroit - Saleh and Lewis B+ lead the way
Atlanta - Morris an A
Philadelphia - Saleh and Eberflus B-
Jacksonville - Leftwich an A, Lewis and Smith A-
NY Jets - Saleh, Leftwich are a B though a lot of chatter for Pederson now
LA Chargers - Daboll, Smith, Bieniemy are As with Leftwich slightly behind A-
Houston- Bieniemy, Leftwich are As
So if you give the job to the best fit:
Atlanta - Morris
NY Jets - Pederson?
Jacksonville - Leftwich
Houston - Bieniemy
Detroit - Saleh
Philadelphia - Eberflus?
Which leaves the Chargers for either Smith or Daboll.
The point here is that probability of Daboll leaving may not be that high, and may be only the Jets and Chargers. It seems like Leftwich, Bieniemy, Saleh and Pederson would fill 4 of the 7, and if Morris gets Atlanta that only leaves 2. If Meyer takes Jacksonville, then it's down to 1 and you've got a lot of guys gunning for either the Chargers or Eagles job.
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I was at the game and it was pretty clear watching him walk on and off the field that the injury still bothered him. He wasn't limping but he definitely wasn't close to 100%. I don't know how many snaps he played but he made the most of them - 7 targets, 7 receptions says it all.
I thought it was a very gutsy performance that has flown a little under the radar.
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I the more relevant comparison is to this year's Pittsburgh game. Indy has a better run game but if the D is defending the short passes that brings 8-9 "in the box" and helps defend the run too. If Indy goes that route the Bills can play run first and short passing game second and that would probably be the most effective strategy.
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12 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:
I highly doubt Daboll will leave his playbook here. Sure they’ll be able to keep some of the concepts but it will be a different offense whoever gets the job.
It's not Daboll's playbook it is the Bills' playbook and of course it stays here. If they don't promote from within McDermott could require an OC from outside to keep the same playbook. There are always tweaks to it every year.
I'm thinking the "playbook" if it actually printed out an in a 3 ring binder has a Bills logo on the cover, not a picture of Daboll.
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41 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:
I get that everyone wants to try and keep the offensive system by promoting from within, but we dont have anyone on our coaching roster that is an expert in Daboll's system. The most likely candidate to hire from within is Ken Dorsey, and he has only been with the Bills for two years now.
Everyone on the offensive coaching staff right now is an "expert" in Daboll's system, particularly Dorsey who has operated in it for 2 years now. When the OC leaves you don't have to scrap the existing system, it is actually the Buffalo Bills' system, not Daboll's.
The biggest expert, however, is Josh Allen and there is no reason to change it now.
If Daboll leaves, I would bet money it's Dorsey's job and he'd want it because he'd know that if he's successful he'd be next in line for a head coaching job.
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Got 2 seats and in my normal section (135) which is pretty cool.
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3 hours ago, BuffBillsForLife said:
I can't believe there's a 10-page thread about our 7th (Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Davis, Roberts, McKenzie, Kumerow) string receiver getting cut and claimed by another team. If this guy were the real deal he wouldn't have been cut by Green Bay in the first place and then buried on the depth chart.
So agree...of course I read through about 3 pages of comments...
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12 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:
If I was an NFL GM I would never have any RB on anything but a rookie deal.
100% agree with this. I am an advocate of drafting a RB 3 out of every 4 years somewhere in rounds 2-4. One more this year, let Yeldon go and see who emerges.
I would have been very happy with them picking Dobbins instead of Epenesa in 2nd this past year but Moss is okay.
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Allen 70% completion % in 2nd half....
So several in national media now say about Allen in regards to his completion % he has to prove that he can consistently do it.
Now on the season he is at 68.6%.
If you are at 69% over 13 games and 471 passes, how many more games and passes does he have to throw to reach "consistency"?
471 passes is a pretty good sample size.
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I think this is the proverbial 1 + 1 = 3, both are good at their jobs but because there is such good alignment working together has produced fabulous results.
I give them both a lot of credit for evolving and understanding how the NFL game has changed. McDermott with the wide open passing game and seemingly using analytics to help guide his decisions (going on 4th down). Beane on how the NFL values certain positions (RB, OG), adeptly using draft capital to get what he needs and building a strong organization.
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WIth 4 games to go, Josh Allen is within reach of many. How many of these will he break?
Bills current passing records:
Yards: Drew Bledsoe, 2002 - 4,359 Allen currently at 3,403
Passing TDs: Jim Kelly, 1991 - 33, Allen @ 26
Completion %: If use a minimum of 250 attempts, leader for full season is Trent Edwards in '08, 65.5%, Kelly Holcomb had 67.4% on 230 attempts in '05, Allen at 69.9%
Yards per attempt (min. 250 attempts): Jack Kemp in '64, 8.5 yards/att. (269 attempts in 14 games), Allen currently at 8.0
QB Rating (min. 250 attempts): Jim Kelly, 1990, 101.2, Allen currently at 105.9
Rushing TDs by a QB: Josh Allen, 2019 - 9, Allen currently has 6
I say he gets 4 out of 6: yards, passing TDs, completion % and QB rating.
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I think it's a good idea first guy that came to mind was Kaare Vedvik since he can punt and place kick but alas Washington FT has him on practice squad.
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They have needs, the only glaring need is LB if Milano leaves, the others are needs. The way they have put the roster together is they are positioned to take best player available. The caveat I would put on that in rounds 1-3 there are definitely value plays based on their cap hits under a rookie contract:
Round 1: The value plays by position are QB, WR, OT, CB, DL (mostly pass rusher though DTs go high too). Bills don't need QB, WR, if they re-sign D. Williams they are good at OT, so it would be CB or DL
Round 2: RBs can be of value, but this is where TE, OG and LB are fertile value ground
Round 3: Any of the above that haven't been address, take best player available
After round 3 it's best player at any position, stick to your board and pick the best one, probably best athlete with upside.
Even though they will be picking low they should be able to get 3 good players.
Cut Singletary
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Even from just a cap perspective, cutting Singletary is a bad move, it costs the Bills money. He has a $1.1 cap number in '21. If released, his dead cap $ is about $518k. Right now they count the top 51 salaries. Player 52 for the Bills has a cap number of $780k. So here's the comparison with or without him:
Keep Singletary: Cap hit $1.1 million
Cut him: Player 52 cap # $780k + dead cap from Singletary $518k = Cap hit of $1,298,000
So cut him and it costs the Bills almost $200k more against the cap vs. keeping him.
He may not be the #1 back but they can do far worse as a #2 or #3 and cutting him hurts the cap situation. Bad idea all around.