PDaDdy

Thank you for this statement as this is a key issue in my view point. This is really important. If you don't know the percentages or the risks how can you tell if it is a good gamble or not??? Seriously think about that. Would you walk into a strange casino, lay down a small amount of money you can comfortably afford losing at a game you don't understand, know the odds of or the payouts and say "it's a good gamble"?? I think the answer to that question is "HELL NO!!!" People that can't or aren't even willing to take a shot at guessing whether Merriman will play or not, what sort of qualitative and quantitative success he will have have very little backing to their point that it is a "good gamble". As I have already mentioned and thought was clear you can certainly argue the impact that having not paid his salary might have had on signing someone else. I will easily concede that. Please, just don't tell me it doesn't matter at all or that it's a good gamble when nobody can even take a wild guess at the chances or odds he will be successful. For the record I don't agree that it is a desperation move. It is a gamble of undefined risk with a few million dollars. Sometimes you win, most times you lose. But like they say...you can't win if you don't play.

Thank you. No problem. The fact that I can think outside of Merriman's contract, or anyone else's for that matter Kelsay *cough* *cough*, is the definition of not looking at things in a vacuum. I can see the potential impact of the contract beyond the risk reward value that some people see myopically looking at Merriman's deal. Ah ...he's back contributing nothing but a dissenting opinion without enlightening anyone. Good to see you found a reason to get out of bed this morning.

Don't mean to be a jerk but read the rest of the thread first! We have already addressed this assertion of yours. We won't sigb anyone for $2.5 million but an extra $1, $2, $2.5 million can make the difference between a difference maker and a roster spot holder. For all either of us know you could be right. However you could obviously be wrong as well. AT BEST we will know the answer when the strike ends and free agency begins. If we are lucky enough to hear news that we are pursing those guys then we will know it might have made a difference. If we don't hear anything unfortunately it just means we didn't hear anything because not every suitor for a free agent is known to the public. If Buddy were to come out and say ..."Hey, we're aren't pursuing any free agents and I'm catching up on some sleep" then we'll know that it wouldn't have mattered for free agency. Part of my point however is that EVERY dollar spent matters! Whether it be signing a free agent or resigning your own good players. Every single penny matters.

My premise is in no way flawed and it couldn't be simpler. Hamstrung is your word. Impact and "difference" are mine. Seeing as how it's my assertion I think Merriman's contract impacting other potential free agent signings is quite clear. Quite simply money spent on any player can't be spent on another player. You can argue how much impact that money could have made but the concept is in no way up for discussion. It's the NFL system. You either get the salary cap, money could be spent on healthy players in their prime concept or you don't. I have grown tired of trying to explain it and it's importance. On "hope" we agree. Merriman is already under contract. My heart gives me "hope" that he will play for the Bills at some point and more importantly that he is effective. My head unfortunately tells me that it is likely a pipe dream.

As expected you haven't said anything. You are obviously reluctant to make any sort of statement what so ever because deep down you realize I am right and it is very likely that Merriman is a waste of money that could be spent elsewhere. Not that you care about my respect but I would have had a lot more for you if you took a stand and gave any sort of prediction at all. You are acting like a person who doesn't believe their own point they're attempting assert and are just arguing for the sake of arguing. PDADDY: "Hey K-9 who do you think will win the game?" K-9: "If team `A` scores more points they will win the game" Thanks for those steaming nuggets of wisdom!!!

Let's keep this going we might get somewhere. I'll define what I mean and you can define what you mean. "More reliable expected results" refers to high performance, healthy players that are at the top of their game right now. Example: Tyson Clabo, Zach Miller, Kevin Boss etc. It is 95% likely that these players would come in and perform at their high if not probowl level. It means that they will continue to have the same qualitative and statistically quantitative performance they have had for the last few years. I have defined what I meant and given a percentage likelihood of them attaining that level of performance. Can you do the same for Merriman or will you just continue to say I am wrong whatever I say?

What is surprising to me is that people have no concept of invested money, risk of investment, expected return and the salary cap. People look at the money we are giving Merriman in a vacuum and can't see that it could be spent elsewhere on lower risk player investments with much much much more reliable expected results. That money could be the little extra we have to pay to get a difference maker to come to Buffalo. I honestly have no clue as to why that concept is apparently beyond some people. If you like the gamble on Merriman and wanted to forgo a more sure return on our investment in another healthy young proven performer, just say that. Don't say it doesn't matter though. That is just wrong.

All I hear with Merriman is "IF" and "crap shoot". I hope the guy produces on the field as well but I have to look at his last 3 years of nothing since getting hurt and getting off the juice. You make a very factual but unlikely statement, "If Merriman ends up earning all this "wasted" money". His numbers would have to be there to make all of those incentives. It's like saying if you score the most points you win the game. You're not really saying anything. Nobody here, PLEASE correct me if I am wrong, has put any sort of likelihood on his return to form. Here is your chance. Shoot down my crusade and tell me what you think will happen with him. Give us all a wild guess of the percentage chance that he will return to form. 5%? 10%? 30% .......riiiiiiiight....thought so.

No I understand exactly what a crap shoot is. Sort of like buying lottery tickets as a retirement plan. Instead of investing in a high risk stock why not put your money in a nice effective predictable plan for success IE getting solid well above average free agents? What makes me think that Meriiman's contract precludes us from signing a FA, specifically an impact or probowl FA? Quite simply the salary cap. We can only spend so much money according to league rules. Look it up sometime. I have only stated and maintained all along that the money we are likely wasting on Merriman, in this crap shoot as you call it, could make the difference between getting a player that is not a gamble and would be as much of a guaranteed plug and play upgrade as you can get.

A-freakin-men! WHOA THERE BUDDY! Don't you know that Bell is a probowler? That is why we could let the other probowl player go. Bringing in a LT would be an admission that Bell is and never was the goods.

So the random $8.25 million number the other poster put up and the $8.25 million number that you calculated in the scenario where he stays on the roster being the same is random? Sounds like I ran with an accurate number...that is unless your calculations are wrong. What is absolutely ridiculous is that you don't see the risk and that this could be a significant, not huge, waste of resources. I like the job Buddy is doing so far but isn't it possible that a persons business decisions could be impacted by a personal relationship and familiarity with the player? Players are often the last to know they can't play anymore. Is it possible that Merriman still thinks he has gas in the tank, is telling Buddy as much and Buddy is taking his word for it because of their history? Not saying this IS the case but it could be a factor. Is that so hard to theorize? Buddy is not going to give him a few million dollar pension plan courtesy of the Bills. If Merriman is just that broken he will be cut. I have no doubt of that. Hopefully Merriman ends up being an asset to the team and a pass rusher who contributes to the sack total not just a PR move that doesn't produce on the field.

I know I have but has anyone else taken notice of all of the television appearances that Shawne Merriman has been making? This is the type of thing that aging athletes do as they try to prepare for a life OFF of the field. Throw in his tweet saying "I think a lot of people forget that this is a "Team" game and success comes in W's not # of sacks" and it seems like he is already making excuses for an expected low sack production. I could be reading too much in the tea leaves but I'm not liking those signs. At least he is over a few "nagging injuries" that some how resulted in very ordinary play. WOW!!! Are you kidding me? So basically one of the incentives is he plays 2 games and his salary goes up to $8.25 million? I wonder how many impact free agents that could make a "difference" getting? I wonder what all these low risk potentially high reward people think about those new numbers? I think Merriman would come out on crutches to be on the active roster for 2 games to make an extra $5.75 million. Against all logic I hope he becomes an asset to the team but in reality it's likely he is grabbing all the cash he can before he prepares for a life in broadcasting. Would love to see that money spent to get a Tyson Clabo. If we offer him $1 million more than anyone else and he will come to gloomy Buffalo. Ralph loves to over pay for role players in this case I wouldn't mind him over paying a little for a difference maker that could solidify a position that has been a problem for a while.

Good question. Then he would just be a cheater with bad knees.

Don't go injecting factual information and rational thought into the discussion when someone is trying to discredit him as an NFL analyst based on his performance on the field as a player. You must be one of them there college boys usin' all them smarts and stuff.

I didn't mock those signings. People who knew something knew those were valuable additions to their team at the time.

LOL. Really? Really? You are the one that is back tracking buddy. That money. Just the BASE money that Merriman is getting to not play could be the difference between impact and no impact for a free agent. You really need a course in reading comprehension don't you? I concede nothing on your numbers nor are they relevant to my point. All that is relevant is the concept which I know you get that $1 million dollars, $1.5 million dollars, $2.5 million dollars could make the difference between whether a Tyson Clabo comes here or goes elsewhere. It could be the difference between signing say a Zack Miller vs a Kevin Boss. I know you are smart enough to get the idea of those scenarios. That is my point. Please don't try to mire this discussion in BS or change the focus of MY statements to avoid admitting that I am right. Neither of us are are that dumb. Let's make this about learning and realizing something not trying to win an argument which enlightens no one.

+1 WOW, I'm agreeing with Billsfreak and Mr WEO today.

You are absolutely correct. I was thinking of the superbowl. In 2007 Merriman should have been steroid free. It was in 2008 when he had the knee injury that his performance dropped off. So he had one year while he was losing the benefits of the juice and his knees were healthy and he performed well. Unfortunately in the in the 3 years since 2007 he has done jack squat. Seems like a long enough time for somebody to get back to form if they were ever going to get back to form. The Shawne Merriman we currently have on our team is both off the juice and has bad knee(s).

Ah the old I I really suck at arithmetic and don't understand the meaning of "difference" vs "equal to" and don't bother to read and understand what people write that I am desperately trying to win and argument with defense. Do you even read what people write or just make something up and rail against it? I said $2.5 million could be the "difference" between signing an impact free agent and a guy that just takes up a roster spot. See? Difference means the difference between the salaries of the 2 players, impact and non impact, not equal to the salary of the "impact" player. Care to try again?

Disregarding good information because of a bias towards the writer is not smart. You don't like what he has to say so you attempt to discredit his valid opinion because you think he has an ax to grind. Wrong again. No he didn't! You realize that the 2007 season starts in September of 2006 right? If he was in the 2007 pro bowl it was largely based on games he played in 2006. The news of his impending suspension was released in October 2006 around week 6 of the 2007 season at which point he challenged the suspension. This means that entering the 2007 season (Sep 2006) he was on the juice. He likely finished the season off of it but as I mentioned it's not like you wake up the next morning and you lose all the muscle mass that you built and endurance you gained while on the stuff.

ANNNHHH. As you well know the 2007 season is played mainly in 2006. Shawne Merriman was notified in the middle of the 2006 season that he would be suspended for steroids. There was an Oct 26th 2006 ESPN article detailing exactly this. (The 2007 season you reference). He was still obviously benefiting from an off season and likely in season use of the juice when he posted those 12.5 sacks. It's not like you lose all of the muscle mass and endurance over night. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2635475

I believe you mean off the juice ineffective for the last 3 years destroyed knees Merriman not "probowl" last decade Merriman. Ah, the old which impact free agent defense. How about Tyson Clabo AND Zach Miller? Impact enough for you? Absolutely and if I spend a years salary on lottery tickets and win the mega millions it would be worth it. The sad fact of the matter is it is so unlikely that it is nearly impossible. What are you not understanding about his destroyed knees, no more juice and his inability to play like pre-injury/pre-juice 2008 form? He will never be the same because of BOTH of those factors. They are huge! We are not talking about him being 95% of his former self. We are talking about him likely being a shadow and I mean shadow of his former self.

+1 As much as people are trying to wreck Brooks he didn't even mention the fact that he is off the juice. Throw that in and it is pretty obvious to me the guy is and has been done. He's already on the team so all I can do is hope against all reason and logic that he can become useful.

What does his crappy performance on the field have to do with his accurate assessment of Merriman as an analyst?

I'll ask the same question of you. What about Merriman's "performance" in the last THREE YEARS gives you optimism of any sort about this signing??? Can you show me any non QB that has played so poorly after sustaining significant injuries and getting off the juice that has had any significant impact in his 4th year down the road? As stated. $2.5 million dollars can be the difference between signing an impact player and a guy that just takes up space on the roster. This is not low risk high reward. It is the exact opposite. High risk with low reward. Basically if we get lucky, and I do mean LUCKY, Merriman will be a Chris Kelsay style role player. By the numbers Kelsay has outplayed him.