San Jose Bills Fan
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Posts posted by San Jose Bills Fan
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Good morning San Jose. I see you're up early pumping your smaller is better theory.
:lol: That's funny.
However, what I actually said was that I would take the bigger player only if he was also the better player.
But by all means, continue to lust after bigger guys.
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I think Bama's heart wasn't in it, used to being in the NC.
I agree that the Tide never recovered from their loss to Auburn.
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Doing it with your peripheral vision makes sense. I can't see missing what's going on with the ball.
That's why I often end up rewinding plays and viewing them a few times.
It's hard (for me anyhow) to follow the ball/play and the O-line action at the same time.
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Mike Munchak was fired by the Titans about an hour ago.
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Jim there are two debates on this subject.
1) Should the Bills draft another QB highly?
2) Will the Bills draft another QB highly?
A surprising number of people are in favor of the idea of drafting a QB highly but very few people think it's gonna happen.
There's no question that the NFL has changed enough that it's a more viable possibility than ever before but the fact remains that it has been a very rare occurrence.
Just recently players like Bradford, Gabbert, Ponder, and Locker were given multiple years to develop.
For better or worse.
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I just don't think that Evans can get seperation at the next level.
In fairness that was a concern people had about Alshon Jeffrey as well.
What concerns me about Evans (and I've only seen one highlight package so far) is that he always seems to line up wide to the right side.
It seemed like he was always running the same 2-3 routes.
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Eagles -2.5
Colts -2
Bengals -7
49ers -3
The pick I feel least sure about is Chargers at Bengals.
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Pretty small sample size to be working with, IMO. It's a lot easier to gather and compare data when athletes are all performing the same task, I.e. hitting in baseball. Working with a pool reduced to first rounders at a single position over 8 years or so - during which the game itself has changed - is extremely difficult. Something to remember when we berate the talent evaluators. They have a really hard job, at least when it comes to the world of sport.
This list also must be prior to Alex Smith, Vick and Rodgers, though Rodgers of course sat his rookie year and then some.
I know it's fairly meaningless but I thought it would be fun to run the numbers and see what came up.
SJBF, there is something seriously flawed in a rating system that places Manuel below Luck, who btw I think is the best prospect to come out of college that I have seen in a long time, if ever.
The Colts were the worst team in the league before he came along and carried them to the playoffs. And call me crazy, but imo the Bills have a better roster (other than QB) than the Colts.
In his rookie season, Luck even rushed for 255 yds. in 62 attempts. He scored 5 TDs and had 23 first downs on the ground.
I am not saying that Bills Fans had/have a right to expect EJ to be as good as Luck. We do not. This post was more about the rating system. It's hard to take it seriously when on paper, EJ scores higher than Andrew Luck.
Statistics are limited. The list was to provide data, perspective. Believe me I harbor no illusions that EJ is in the same class as Andrew Luck. On the other hand he's not as horrible as a lot of people here want to make him out to be.
And again, passer rating while not infallible, is one stat that people can't be dismissive of:
http://en.wikipedia....i/Passer_rating
In 2011, CNNSI published an article by Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts highlighting the importance of passer rating in determining a team's success.[6] "Put most simply," the article states, "you cannot be a smart football analyst and dismiss passer rating. In fact, it's impossible to look at the incredible correlation of victory to passer rating and then dismiss it. You might as well dismiss the score of a game when determining a winner. [...] Few, if any, are more indicative of wins and losses than passer rating. Teams that posted a higher passer rating went 203-53 (.793) in 2010and an incredible 151-29 (.839) after Week 5." Byrne made an expanded defense of the passer rating and its importance for the Pro Football Researchers Association in 2012.[7] The study noted that of the eight teams since 1940 to lead the league in both offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating, all won championships.[8]
Same with passer rating differential:
http://sportsillustr...g.differential/
"The Most Important Stat in Football"
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Rookie 1st Round QBs Pre- 2010:
Matt Ryan 87.7
Joe Flacco 80.3
Matt Leinart 74.0
Vince Young 66.7
Mark Sanchez 63.0
Matthew Stafford 61.0
Josh Freeman 59.8
Brady Quinn 56.8
Jamarcus Russell 55.9
You might be onto something.
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Quarterbacking became gradually easier since the early 2000's but it got a lot easier starting in 2010.
That was the season where the NFL started cracking down hard on hits to the QB and defenseless receivers. Do we recall the Pittsburgh Steelers getting fined every week and the emerging concerns about concussions?
There really is no reason to go back 20 years........5 of the top 10 individual passer rating seasons have occurred since the concussion based crackdown in 2010.
Not surprisingly with a less dangerous pocket we are seeing rookie QB's putting up rookie numbers that seem respectable by an older standard.
Rookie 1st Round QBs since 2010:
Robert Griffin III: 102.4 (an NFL record)
Cam Newton: 84.5
Tim Tebow 82.1
EJ Manuel 77.7
Andrew Luck 76.5
Sam Bradford 76.5
Ryan Tannehill 76.1
Jake Locker 74.0
Brandon Weeden 72.6
Christian Ponder 70.1
Blaine Gabbert 65.4
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Ok let's put it this way. There were 21 QBs who qualified for that chart subtracting Flutie. Glennon, Manuel and Smith would have qualified this year. That makes 24. Manuel is 10th on that list. Glennon's season (83.9) just landed him at number 5 with a team with no less turmoil and less weapons. If we're going to accept QB Rating as a valid measurement of anything which I don't then we also have to say that the Bills screwed the pooch by taking Manuel in round 1 while Glennon went in round 4.
Again, to put in context of how useless QB Rating is, Mike Glennon is Jim Kelly at this point. Glennon's QB Rating exceeded all but 4 of Kelly's during his career.
As for data that suggests Manuel was a 4th round pick you know as well as i do that such thing doesn't exist apart from the opinions of people who are paid to make such opinions. For the purposes of your position that's not a path you want to follow though because if I yield that Manuel actually is a 1st round talent based on his draft position then you must also yield that he was grossly outplayed by a 4th round talent in Glennon.
This particular exchange is part of the reason i don't bother doing this anymore. I'm going after your data, you're going after me. "Grasping at straws" and "quibbling" are extremely condescending terms. You clearly aren't open to an objective argument. You're open for shouting down opposition and grouping everyone who disagrees with you into the same unreasonable pile.
Fine. You win. EJ Manuel had a great year.
I never said EJ had a great year, I said he had a very good year for a rookie.
Also, I have no problem saying Glennon had the better rookie season. It would be silly to argue otherwise.
But I still believe EJ has major upside and certainly there's nothing guaranteeing that Glennon will have a better career.
My only point is that I think many people on this board are very inaccurate in their view of how a rookie QB is supposed to perform. Even to this very day, most rookie QBs really suck. The statistics certainly show that EJ didn't suck and to my eye he didn't suck.
I think the Atlanta game in Toronto is a really good Rorschach Test for EJ.
I thought he had a few rough moments but overall played really well. He threw for a TD, he ran for a TD, he didn't throw a pick. He completed passes to 6 different receivers and he had the Bills driving in the 4th quarter before Stevie fumbled and again in OT when Chandler fumbled.
Yet there are people on this board who state that EJ played poorly against Atlanta.
That's amazing to me.
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And why certain parameters like 300 attempts and the last 20 years were chosen. For giggles I looked up Dan Marino who played 9 games as a rookie in an era where passing was much harder. He had 296 attempts and his Passer rating was 96.
If you take 1986 as Kelly's rookie year he had 480 attempts. His rating was 83.3. FWIW his CAREER rating was a shade over 84.
Elway had under 300 attempts and his rating was 54.9
What I'm getting at it you can make numbers say whatever you want with the context you choose to put them in. As per passer rating EJ Manuel just blew John Elway's doors off.
And was Kelly a true rookie when he entered the NFL?
Take the data I provided for what it's worth.
If you're gonna tell me it's worthless, I'm gonna tell you you're way off.
You can quibble all you want but EJ had the 10th best rookie season in the last 22 years. Neither of us selected the criteria. Split as many hairs as you want.
And while you're at it, feel free to show me data which proves that EJ's a "4th round talent."
I'm always up for an honest and objective debate.
You got the posters confused cause I never said that bout EJ, must've been another poster. I'm not saying Ej is.....stick a fork in him done, I'm just very much wanting the Bills to add another QB via the draft this year. What's the worst that can happen, EJ has some stiff comp. in camp and rises to the occasion to win the starting job? I'd be fine with that. I just don't want to see the Bills pass on talent and put all their eggs in Manuel's basket. I don't think he showed nearly enough to deserve that status.
Yes, I edited it because I was addressing DJP.
Sorry.
BTW, as I keep reminding people, I've posted several times that the Bills should consider drafting another QB.
What I'm getting at it you can make numbers say whatever you want with the context you choose to put them in. As per passer rating EJ Manuel just blew John Elway's doors off.
In fact, per passer rating EJ Manuel just had a better season than John Elway did in 1989 when the Broncos went to the Super Bowl (73.7) Having watched that team I assure you that the Broncos had nothing on offense except John Elway, not a thing. I seriously doubt that even EJs most ardent supporters would argue that he was better than a Super Bowl bound John Elway this year. QB Rating is a very very flawed stat for a variety of reasons.
Statistics are not the be-all, end-all.
I watch the games too, just like you.
As for Passer Rating, it has been pointed out recently here that Passer Rating is a very high indicator of success and that Passer Rating Differential is arguably the metric with the greatest accuracy for team success.
http://en.wikipedia....i/Passer_rating
In 2011, CNNSI published an article by Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts highlighting the importance of passer rating in determining a team's success.[6] "Put most simply," the article states, "you cannot be a smart football analyst and dismiss passer rating. In fact, it's impossible to look at the incredible correlation of victory to passer rating and then dismiss it. You might as well dismiss the score of a game when determining a winner. [...] Few, if any, are more indicative of wins and losses than passer rating. Teams that posted a higher passer rating went 203-53 (.793) in 2010 and an incredible 151-29 (.839) after Week 5." Byrne made an expanded defense of the passer rating and its importance for the Pro Football Researchers Association in 2012.[7] The study noted that of the eight teams since 1940 to lead the league in both offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating, all won championships.[8]
"The Most Important Stat in Football"
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The Bills have enough small receivers, they need a big man who can go up and outreach the D.
This is kind of the equivalent of not drafting the best linebacker in the nation because he doesn't weigh 260 pounds.
Smart personnel men only use size as a tie-breaker. It's never the first consideration.
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My post was in response to several of your posts, but particularly to you saying "Honestly, you could make a strong argument that the Bills took the guy with no future LAST year when they took a 4th round QB in round one out of need."
In the context of statistical facts, EJ had a very good rookie season. Particularly in view of having marginal receiving weapons, an offensive line which regressed, one running back who isn't explosive and another running back who is explosive and little else. Also EJ's injuries hurt his development.
And in spite of all this, he had a very good rookie season.
Here are all the QBs drafted in the first round since 2009:
Matthew Stafford 1st overall 2009
Mark Sanchez 5th overall 2009
Josh Freeman 17th overall 2009
Sam Bradford 1st overall 2010
Tim Tebow 25th overall 2010
Cam Newton 1st overall 2011
Jake Locker 8th overall 2011
Blaine Gabbert 10th overall 2011
Christian Ponder 12th overall 2011
Andrew Luck 1st overall 2012
Robert Griffin III 2nd overall 2012
Ryan Tannehill 8th overall 2012
Brandon Weeden 22nd overall 2012
It seems like people who criticize EJ are not being fair and objective.
No what it does is make you wonder about the accuracy of the data.
Oh. I see now.
Never mind.
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Not to call that list into question but Doug Flutie wasn't a rookie in 1998. Not even an NFL rookie.
That actually strengthens the argument in favor of Manuel.
His rookie season was compared to a veteran's season.
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hmmmm the "Elite" guys like Flacco and Eli come in at 73.1 and 69.4 respectively - hey wait a minute
Last year Rookie qb's Luck 76.5, Tannehill 76.1 Jake Locker 74.0 wow not really record breaking - hey wait a minute
Yep.
EJ Manuel, 77.7
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What we've lacked and continue to lack is a QB. Fix that problem and everything can change, until then it's shuffling the deck chairs.
IMO - Manuel has done nothing to warrant the Bills NOT drafting another QB to come in and compete for the job.
Honestly, you could make a strong arguemtn that the Bills took the guy with no future LAST year when they took a 4th round QB in round one out of need. This year and next have much better prospects and refusing to choose one while we still have a giant question mark at QB is risking 2 more years of stagnation and frankly that puts the franchise in jeopardy at this point.
I know you're on a roll but a little factual information is probably in order here.
According to this list, EJ Manuel just completed (statistically) the 10th best rookie season by any rookie QB since 1992. His 77.7 passer rating puts him between Jeff Garcia and Carson Palmer.
http://www.sportingc...t-20-years.aspx
Tajh Boyd is already and will continue to be a better QB than EJ Manuel when he gets to the NFL. He keeps his eyes downfield when under pressure and delivers the ball accurately to his receivers. He's also shown the fearlessness to test defenses deep, which I like. Once again, this kid has a lot to work on, but if drafted by the Bills he'd be the best QB on our roster come September 2014. Question is will he be a 1st rounder or not?
If you could have one player on the Bills right now who would you rather have.................Boyd or Watkins?
FWIW, here's what happened last year when EJ went head to head with Tajh Boyd.
http://espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=322660052
EJ led Florida State from deficits 3 times in the Seminoles victory.
EJ was clearly the better QB that night, head-to-head.
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He's like a falcon out there.
Anything in the air is his.
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Love it. I loathe Ohio State.
Huge Michigan fan, so yeah!
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What a play by Boyd and Watkins.
Wow.
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That's what I think. I think that 3 QBs, Clowney, Mack, Watkins and Matthews are all off the board by the time that the Bills pick. If I had to guess at the other guy off the board I would say Barr. I am assuming that Hundley stays in school. Something like this:
Hou- Bridgewater
Cle (from STL) - Manziel
Jax - Bortles
STL (from Cle) - Matthews
Oak - Clowney
ATL - Mack
TB - Watkins
Minn - Barr
If the Bills stay put, they'll get a premier talent.
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I thought mario deserved it. He clearly opened up rush lanes for other players. As for byrd, in the games he played in he was a clear difference maker. The difference between him and leodis (who had a great season) is the same as it always was: one player has great ball skills, and one has weak ball skills.
Fair enough.
But I would compare Leodis' season to that of the other cornerbacks.
As for Byrd, he picked up steam as his season progressed but his game was not flawless by any means.
I still say make him the highest-paid safety in the league but that's not what we're discussing.
As for Mario, I remain fairly lukewarm on his impact and I don't think he's one of the top 4 DEs in the NFL.
JMO.
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Ha-Ha is a nickname derived from Hasean.
Surely you must be kidding?
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No, I'm serious. Clinton-Dix could remind Whaley of a Polamalu type player. Flies all over the field, hits people in the mouth, and can cover. I'm not saying he would be MY CHOICE, but I could see it happen especially if he shows well in all the predraft activities.
I was just alluding to his first name being Ha-Ha.
Bills need to poop or get off the pot.
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
The rest of the league.