berndogg Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 The spread has stayed close to 10.5-11 all week despite the wagerline consensus, the sportsbook.com betting trends, and the logans.com betting trends all showing bettors taking NE -10.5 at a rate of 80+%. These numbers show what the average small time public bettor is betting on. My point is, the books don't just leave themselves open to get destroyed if there is a very lopsided amount of action on one team. If there weren't professional gamblers betting large amounts on buffalo, the spread would be at at lest 13 by now. So why do the "sharps" like the bills tonight? I think that joe public just sees "brady and moss are back, 17-0", and "Bills fired their o-coordinator, they're a mess" while the pros really analyze the match up. The analysis probably points to things such as the NE secondary and D-Line being big question marks against a buffalo offense, that with T.O. in there will have a lot of weapons. They see the bills improved in all 3 levels of their defense and the possibility of having a formidable pass rush. They see a qb one year off of acl surgery and some aging players all over the rest of the offense. Now look, the sharps don't always win, that's why its called gambling, there is still every chance that the Bills get blown out. But it's somewhat comforting to me that while the "analysts" you see on TV, who have nothing at stake with their predictions, all love a pats blow out, the people who are making their picks with real big money on the line like the bills to cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmjoyce113 Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 I was actually thinking the same thing this morning. The line has been 10 1/2 11 for months now and didn't move in the last few weeks. For that reason I think there is even a little more hope for it to be a close game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berndogg Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 I was actually thinking the same thing this morning. The line has been 10 1/2 11 for months now and didn't move in the last few weeks. For that reason I think there is even a little more hope for it to be a close game. Exactly, the people with the most money at stake for predicting the outcome correctly (sportsbooks, professional gamblers) didn't seem to think that the Schonert/Walker incidents, or even the dismal preseason (the spread came out before the preseason) would have a big an effect on the result of this game. If they did, the line would've moved after these events. However, the people who get paid for telling a story that will grab peoples' attention, whose predictions hold no consequences, seem to think those incidents were catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 I agree and will put my money on Buffalo tonight. I just made a similar post on the Off Topic board on Gordios betting thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 By keeping the spread so (seemingly) low, Vegas is daring you to bet on the Patriots. Guarantee most oddsmakers think the Bills will cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussTheBus Posted September 14, 2009 Share Posted September 14, 2009 The analysis probably points to things such as the NE secondary and D-Line being big question marks against a buffalo offense, that with T.O. in there will have a lot of weapons. They see the bills improved in all 3 levels of their defense and the possibility of having a formidable pass rush. They see a qb one year off of acl surgery and some aging players all over the rest of the offense. Now look, the sharps don't always win, that's why its called gambling, there is still every chance that the Bills get blown out. But it's somewhat comforting to me that while the "analysts" you see on TV, who have nothing at stake with their predictions, all love a pats blow out, the people who are making their picks with real big money on the line like the bills to cover. this is a tough game to call, both the bills offense and pats d are unknowns at this point. there's pluses and minuses for both. The pats lose seymour, but maybe they dont need him going against a rookie/makeshift o-line. they also added springs who may or may not shut down TO bills o-line is suspect, but trent is a year older, and does make good decisions when he's not concussed. plus TO, minus lynch.... still, i think we're gonna need some surprises to stay in this game. bills d (and special teams) should be good this year, but probably not good enough to stop brady from putting up a few tds. i think we'll be dependent on them producing a few great field position and/or points for the bills to not get blown out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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