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(OT) Stocks question


rolly

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Oh and rolly, listen to these other guys.  Don't buy the stock just because I did, because I don't want that hanging on my head if it should tank.

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Be careful if this trades below 3.5 it would be a fast trip to 3.

 

If you did some good due diligence and you're comfortable owning this company long term (2-3 years), be ready to buy some more at 2.5 to 3.

 

Personally, if I had some very expendable cash burning a hole in my pocket I'd open a small position here and hope to average in at 2.5 after the Stern hype has mellowed, and it drifts back down to its natural trading range. I think that this company will be around for a while, but most investors are looking for this company to start expanding its distribution base (automakers etc...) before increasing their current position.

 

 

This is a good chart to check out.

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Be careful if this trades below 3.5 it would be a fast trip to 3.

 

If you did some good due diligence and you're comfortable owning this company long term (2-3 years), be ready to buy some more at 2.5 to 3.

I'm willing to go there. In my research though, the stock has been above $3 since December 30th of last year.

 

Personally, if I had some very expendable cash burning a hole in my pocket I'd open a small position here and hope to average in at 2.5 after the Stern hype has mellowed, and it drifts back down to its natural trading range. I think that this company will be around for a while, but most investors are looking for this company to start expanding its distribution base (automakers etc...) before increasing their current position.

Well, "expendable" is a relative term. :D And I bought at $4 so to average at $2.5, the stock would have to drop to $1, which I seriously doubt will happen. As I mentioned above, the stock hasn't been below $3 since the beginning of the year, which predates the Stern announcement, or even any speculation of him moving to Sirius, by at least 6 months. And the day after I bought Sirius, their earnings came in and they lost money, but the stock only lost $0.10, and is practically back at $4 again. To me that's a good sign, but hey, what do I know?

 

Oh and thanks to the poster who recommended Seabridge Gold and Hyperdynamics Corp. Looking good so far.

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Do more research. Buying a stock because a radio personality is switching is not smart. Real market watchers knew about this months ago so the adjustment has been made.

 

Look at mutual funds. Fool.com has some good information on rookie investors. Diversification is key, or if you have enough money a managed account. I'd suggest either educating yourself more or consulting a professional you can trust.

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I wholeheartedly agree. While there are investors who buy and sell on the basis of technical analysis (looking at charts for patterns that may be predictive of future stock movement), I think there is no substitute for knowing the company you want to invest in: PE ratio, debt level, management etc. At best, investing in Sirius is highly speculative. If a portion of your investable money is what you would call "risk capital" or money you can afford to lose, and you want to take a flier on a company like Sirius, that's fine, but make sure you can afford to lose it.

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As someone pointed out, it's best to have the bulk of your portfolio in index funds. Avoid anything with over a 1% annual fee like the plague, and try to get the annual fee as small as possible. Past outperformance of the market does not predict future outperformance of the market, so never pay a management fee for a mutual fund. Over time that fee will kill your performance.

 

If you do want to buy individual stocks, try to stick with companies that you know something the market may not know. For instance, let's say that you're in the shopping mall, and you happen to notice that there seem to be more people in a particular store than usual. You've noticed this pattern for a few months. Chances are the market doesn't know this yet, because the company only has to report its earnings once a quarter. So buy stock in that company. If later on you see that the crowds are starting to thin out, sell the stock before the market realizes what's happened.

 

If you do things this way, and if you do a little digging, then odds are you'll make money more often than not. Just keep in mind that no investment strategy is successful 100% of the time.

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I'm willing to go there.  In my research though, the stock has been above $3 since December 30th of last year.

Well, "expendable" is a relative term. <_<  And I bought at $4 so to average at $2.5, the stock would have to drop to $1, which I seriously doubt will happen.  As I mentioned above, the stock hasn't been below $3 since the beginning of the year, which predates the Stern announcement, or even any speculation of him moving to Sirius, by at least 6 months.  And the day after I bought Sirius, their earnings came in and they lost money, but the stock only lost $0.10, and is practically back at $4 again.  To me that's a good sign, but hey, what do I know?

 

Oh and thanks to the poster who recommended Seabridge Gold and Hyperdynamics Corp.  Looking good so far.

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You should subscribe to or use better research material. SIRI was as low as 2.01 as recently as 8/11/04 and again on 8/12/04. In fact it has traded below $3 in Jan, Feb, Mar, May, Jun, Jul, Aug and Sep of this year.

 

Averaging in at 2.5 means that you buy more at 2.5, not that you'll have an average of 2.5.

 

I hope you make money, I'm not pointing these things out with the hope that you lose money! I'm just saying that the stock has serious resistance at the $4 range, if it breaks the 4 to 4.25 tops it could make a nice move. The opposite is also true, that a fall below 3.50 almost certainly means 3 and possibly 2.5. That is why I said I would take a small position now and wait to hopefully pick more up at a better historical valuation.

 

It seems to me that you're buying a stock very near to its recent highs and that you right now have more downside than upside exposure. The news about Stern has been out for some time now and he will not produce significant revenues for SIRI for some time. SIRI has been issuing large quantities of new stock, much of which is being given to the top management at a cost of $0 per share. The stock is also still trading below $5 which prevents the vast majority of mutual funds the ability to invest in it. I take these things as being a potentially bad sign, but hey, what do I know, I've only been professionally trading stocks for over 12 years now.

 

MBD I truely hope that you make a nice tidy profit, just play the stock, don't let it play you. Good Luck!

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You should subscribe to or use better research material.  SIRI was as low as 2.01 as recently as 8/11/04 and again on 8/12/04. In fact it has traded below $3 in Jan, Feb, Mar, May, Jun, Jul, Aug and Sep of this year.

 

Averaging in at 2.5 means that you buy more at 2.5, not that you'll have an average of 2.5.

 

I hope you make money, I'm not pointing these things out with the hope that you lose money! I'm just saying that the stock has serious resistance at the $4 range, if it breaks the 4 to 4.25 tops it could make a nice move. The opposite is also true, that a fall below 3.50 almost certainly means 3 and possibly 2.5. That is why I said I would take a small position now and wait to hopefully pick more up at a better historical valuation.

 

It seems to me that you're buying a stock very near to its recent highs and that you right now have more downside than upside exposure. The news about Stern has been out for some time now and he will not produce significant revenues for SIRI for some time. SIRI has been issuing large quantities of new stock, much of which is being given to the top management at a cost of $0 per share. The stock is also still trading below $5 which prevents the vast majority of mutual funds the ability to invest in it. I take these things as being a potentially bad sign, but hey, what do I know, I've only been professionally trading stocks for over 12 years now.

 

MBD I truely hope that you make a nice tidy profit, just play the stock, don't let it play you. Good Luck!

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Thanks for the advice and well-wishes dave. I didn't do a day-by-day check of the stock price, using certain points instead that corresponded to company news, so I erred by saying it hasn't fallen below a certain price and in the process made myself look foolish. I'm in it for the long-haul, so while I agree that I may have paid more than I could have, I'm hoping in the long-term it's relatively moot. And hey if it tanks, a fool and his money... :D

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Oh and thanks to the poster who recommended Seabridge Gold and Hyperdynamics Corp.  Looking good so far.

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That was me. :D

 

I agree that penny stocks are highly speculative. I have lost money in some of them as well, but these two have been among my better picks. Seabridge Gold is going to follow the price of gold pretty closely, so if the conditions look as if gold might go down (stronger dollar, healthy economy, while retaining tame inflation) you'll want to bail quickly on Seabridge. Hyperdynamics has gone up and down over the last couple years. The company owns oil rights on a potential bonanza off the coast of Africa. They have been dooing all the testing over the last couple years. Every time a new test comes in (2D seissmology, 3D seismology, core sampling etc.) the price spikes because all the testing has been positive. Then the price will drift back down. Generally each time it drops it has higher lows, and when it spikes it has higher highs. The drop in price represents profit taking. As a small company, thhey don't have the capital to undertake massive drilling, so they will need to partner with one or more big companies to do the drilling for a share of the revenue. Bottom line, if they strike the oil they think is there, the stock will soar. If they don't it will tank.

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