First Round Busts don't help playoff chances

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2006 Donte Whitner = ?

2006 McCargo = Bust

2004 JP Losman = Bust (has any Bill turned the ball over more than JP (51 turnovers) during the time that they have appeared on the field?)

2003 McGahee = Bust (traded away when problems arose)

2002 Mike Williams = Bust

2000 Erik Flowers = Bust

 

Five first round busts in 8 years might have something to do with no playoffs during that time (and current 7-9 year after year)...but hopefully the Bills can build upon their selections of Lynch and McKelvin the last two years and get to .500 again...

 

I'd like to compare our first-round success rate to other franchises. What's good? 50%

 

By the way, this just goes to show you that the people who think drafting person X in the first round next year will suddenly make us good are dreaming.

[NavarreFL_Bills_Fan]

I'd like to compare our first-round success rate to other franchises. What's good? 50%

 

By the way, this just goes to show you that the people who think drafting person X in the first round next year will suddenly make us good are dreaming.

 

 

It's all about probability. You are supposed to have a higher probability of getting a great player in the first round than in later rounds.

 

Unfortunately, that assumes you make choices that follows conventional scouting reports and talent other talent evaluations. For some reason, the Bills have gone against that common logic (except the past 2 yrs)....and the results don't exactly defend the methodology.

 

...JP was always considered a 2-4 rounder by most opinions...said he has problems processing defenses....

...McCargo was considered 2-4 rd talent

...McGahee was simply a reach b/c of the injury

...Mike Williams, the probability just din't work out

...Whitner was considered late first rd talent, but many predicting the Bills would take Ngata because of their needs

[silvermike]

McGahee wasn't a reach, he was a waste. We had a 1400 yard RB on the team - why the heck did we need to bring in another one?

[Sisyphean Bills]

McGahee wasn't a reach, he was a waste. We had a 1400 yard RB on the team - why the heck did we need to bring in another one?

Not just that, but McGahee wasn't going to help the team for at least another year and the coach was on a lame duck season with both feet already dangling out of the door, parachute on, and goggles in place.

[Thoner7]

the pick traded for Bledsoe counts as a bust in my book

[VJ91]

Those drafts have been pretty bad, I think the worst pick of them all was McCargo. I will cut Whitner some slack, his DL dont help him at all with a pass rush and when a QB has all the time in the world to throw the ball it is harder to cover a WR or TE......But in some ways you have a point with Whitner.....

.

 

And you rank Erick Flowers ahead of McCargo? Actually, neither one of those two comes close to being the worst. Mike Williams, a top 5 overall pick, is the absolute worst choice out of those busts. Just look at some of the players the Bills could have drafted, that were still on the board at the number 4 pick of the entire freakin' draft, instead of that big fat stiff: Bryant McKinnie, Roy Williams, John Henderson, Dwight Freeney, Jeremy Shockey, Albert Haynesworth, Javon Walker & Ed Reed.

 

"Thank you" Tom Donahoe, Tom Modrak and scouts for passing up all those players for "big" Mike Williams.

[spartacus]

.

 

And you rank Erick Flowers ahead of McCargo? Actually, neither one of those two comes close to being the worst. Mike Williams, a top 5 overall pick, is the absolute worst choice out of those busts. Just look at some of the players the Bills could have drafted, that were still on the board at the number 4 pick of the entire freakin' draft, instead of that big fat stiff: Bryant McKinnie, Roy Williams, John Henderson, Dwight Freeney, Jeremy Shockey, Albert Haynesworth, Javon Walker & Ed Reed.

 

"Thank you" Tom Donahoe, Tom Modrak and scouts for passing up all those players for "big" Mike Williams.

 

The biggest travesty, bar none, is that the clown show in the front office is still performing its unique brand of comedy with no end in sight.

 

Tom Modrak, who is too busy to even visit Buffalo and John Guy are the main reason why the talent evaluation of both college and pro free agents has been so shoddy with the resulting lack of talent on the field.

[VJ91]

I'd like to compare our first-round success rate to other franchises. What's good? 50%

 

By the way, this just goes to show you that the people who think drafting person X in the first round next year will suddenly make us good are dreaming.

 

Let's take a look at the New England Patriots first round success rate over the same time period, shall we?:

2000: No 1st round pick.

2001: Richard Seymour, DT - Successful

2002: Daniel Graham, TE - Successful - Graham played 5 productive seasons for the Pats before going to Denver as FA. Averaged 24 catches for 279 yds. and 3 TD's per season. Maybe not 1st round numbers, but not a "bust" either.

2003: Ty Warren DE - Successful.

2004: Vince Wilfork, NT - Successful.

2005: Logan Mankins, G - Successful

2006: Laurence Maroney, RB - Successful

2007: Brandon Meriweather, DB - Successful - In this his second year, he has 4 interceptions and has started 10 games.

2008: Jerod Mayo, OLB - Successful - has started all 15 games, has 121 tackles.

 

It looks like the Pats are at 100% success rate and their scouts don't "dream" about finding the right players to draft!

[NavarreFL_Bills_Fan]

McGahee wasn't a reach, he was a waste. We had a 1400 yard RB on the team - why the heck did we need to bring in another one?

 

he was a reach too. Nobody knew what they had in him b/c of his injury. If they Bills didn't take him, he easily would have lasted until a later round. Also, look at the draft and look at all the others available at that spot. Plenty of talent that would have helped the Bills iin other areas.

[StupidNation]

There is no debate whether Whitner is great or good without a Dline. Great players make themselves great without the supporting cast on defense. The question now is whether Whitner is any good at all, forget great. I'm leaning in the negative as I've never seen a safety so inept in coverage in the 1st round. The guy never plays the ball, but the defender. That's the right way to play 80% of the time, but you have to look for the ball in case there is a chance to break a play and be READY to play the ball.

 

That "almost" INT last week is proof Whitner does not play the ball. He was ready to tackle and when the ball was sailing past you could see how late he is. He's constantly out of position to make a play and lacks ball instincts which cannot be taught.

[VJ91]

Let's take a look at the New England Patriots first round success rate over the same time period, shall we?:

2000: No 1st round pick.

2001: Richard Seymour, DT - Successful

2002: Daniel Graham, TE - Successful - Graham played 5 productive seasons for the Pats before going to Denver as FA. Averaged 24 catches for 279 yds. and 3 TD's per season. Maybe not 1st round numbers, but not a "bust" either.

2003: Ty Warren DE - Successful.

2004: Vince Wilfork, NT - Successful.

2005: Logan Mankins, G - Successful

2006: Laurence Maroney, RB - Successful

2007: Brandon Meriweather, DB - Successful - In this his second year, he has 4 interceptions and has started 10 games.

2008: Jerod Mayo, OLB - Successful - has started all 15 games, has 121 tackles.

 

It looks like the Pats are at 100% success rate and their scouts don't "dream" about finding the right players to draft!

 

And now, here for your enjoyment, is the Detroit Lions' first round success rate over the same time period:

2000: Stockar McDougle, T - Successful - started 54 games at tackle over 5 seasons for the Lions.

2001: Jeff Backus, T - Successful - still Lions' starting left tackle today.

2002: Joey Harrington, QB - BUST.

2003: Charles Rogers, WR - BUST

2004: Roy Williams, WR - BUST

2005: Mike Williams, WR - BUST

2006: Ernie Sims, OLB - Successful

2007: Calvin Johnson, WR - Successful

2008: Gosder Cherilus, T - Undecided - Has started 12 games at RT as a rookie, but these are the Lions!?

 

The Lions are at 40% success rate, with Cherilus still undecided.

[BillsVet]

The biggest travesty, bar none, is that the clown show in the front office is still performing its unique brand of comedy with no end in sight.

 

Tom Modrak, who is too busy to even visit Buffalo and John Guy are the main reason why the talent evaluation of both college and pro free agents has been so shoddy with the resulting lack of talent on the field.

 

IMO, the front office has done a fine job of creating an atmosphere that makes it hard to blame one guy. When TD ran the show, he got the blame for not getting it done. And rightfully so.

 

When Marv entered and abdicated responsibilities to Guy, Modrak, and Jauron, the picture got murky about who should receive blame for picks and FA signings. Now, with Brandon heading things up, we still don't know who's responsible for what.

 

Either way, both TD and the current regime have failed. Unless they totally clean house, put RB back to being the business guy, and hire new personnel execs, this team is on the path to nowhere.