indiragandhi'sthong Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 With the end of the Sabres season, I have been wracking my brain with draft analysis. One minute, I am sold on takingv a wideout. Then, DBs flood my brain - I hear Marv saying, "you can never have enough DBs." Now, I am confident I have come to the only logical conclusion ... well, at least until tomorrow ... DE. (Groan ...I know, but hear me out!) Point #1 - Pressure on the QB. We lack a standout DE and have since BRUCE left. Schobel is a nice player, especially against average to mediocre teams, but adding a "young buck" to the rotation can allow Schobel, Kelsay and Denney to stay even fresher. And who knows ... it may push some of them harder in training camp (can anyone say Schobel?) Pressure makes average secondaries look way above average ... helping out another spot of need > cornerback. Point #2 - If Harvey or Merling is on the board at #11 (especially Harvey) and he checks out with football smarts and off-the-field character issues, you have to take him. WRs simply aren't drafted at #11. Two of the games best were drafted mid-to-late first round > Jerry Rice (#25, I think) and Randy Moss (#17 or #18). Early picks are spent on the line or difference making linebackers. #11 is simply too high for a Malcolm Kelley, especially in a deep draft. Point #3 - You may well get that tall, sturdy receiver in the second round. Football gods willing, Kelley may even slip and you can pull a Poz and get him in Round #2. That will leave Round #3 for an inviting TE prospect with potential or another WR in this deep of a draft. * I believe getting Will (on't call me Petersen) James sealed the deal for not drafting a CB in the first round. Extra pressure will help McGee and James (or Greer) and allow the Bills to draft one later or look to 2009 draft. Time for bed ... go ahead and pick my thought apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 I'll offer up a few counterpoints. 1) There's no question that the Bills defense needs to apply more pressure to opposing QBs, but I also think that last year was probably an abberation. I don't think its unreasonable to expect all three DEs, if they remain healthy, to add 3 sacks to their season totals from last year. If they do that, combined with the guys we have healthy and the FA additions, I think this defense could easily post 40 sacks as a team next year. That's not ideal, but its far from bad, either. One additional note: former 2nd rounder Aaron Schobel is actually the leader in career sacks amongst all DEs drafted in the first two rounds since 2000 with 67.5. 2) Arguably the best first round WR picked in the last 10 years went 6th overall to the Rams. His name was Torry Holt. The Rams won the Super Bowl that year. There is no one-size-fits-all formula to winning the Super Bowl. Every team is different. Jerry Rice went 16th overall, Moss 21st in their respective drafts. If I knew Malcolm Kelly would have as good a career as any of these three, I'd be willing to take him 11th, no doubt about it. Heck, I'd trade up for him if I thought I had to. 3) If Malcolm Kelly falls to R2, there's probably something wrong with him and I wouldn't pick him there, either. If I were making the Bills picks, I'd be targeting TE with pick 41, anyway, as it looks to be a tremendous value at that spot and there's a realistic chance that the top TE on the board will still be available. And I agree on Will James. Maybe not that it 'sealed the deal', but it certainly gives them more options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 ......WRs simply aren't drafted at #11.......Early picks are spent on the line or difference making linebackers...... I did something similar in a different thread so I thought I'd expand it for this one....... In the last 10 drafts the top 11 selections are as follows DL - 21 QB - 19 WR - 17 DB - 17 RB - 13 OL - 12 LB - 9 TE - 2 History would seem to contradict your theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 With the end of the Sabres season, I have been wracking my brain with draft analysis. One minute, I am sold on takingv a wideout. Then, DBs flood my brain - I hear Marv saying, "you can never have enough DBs." Now, I am confident I have come to the only logical conclusion ... well, at least until tomorrow ... DE. (Groan ...I know, but hear me out!) Point #1 - Pressure on the QB. We lack a standout DE and have since BRUCE left. Schobel is a nice player, especially against average to mediocre teams, but adding a "young buck" to the rotation can allow Schobel, Kelsay and Denney to stay even fresher. And who knows ... it may push some of them harder in training camp (can anyone say Schobel?) Pressure makes average secondaries look way above average ... helping out another spot of need > cornerback. Point #2 - If Harvey or Merling is on the board at #11 (especially Harvey) and he checks out with football smarts and off-the-field character issues, you have to take him. WRs simply aren't drafted at #11. Two of the games best were drafted mid-to-late first round > Jerry Rice (#25, I think) and Randy Moss (#17 or #18). Early picks are spent on the line or difference making linebackers. #11 is simply too high for a Malcolm Kelley, especially in a deep draft. Point #3 - You may well get that tall, sturdy receiver in the second round. Football gods willing, Kelley may even slip and you can pull a Poz and get him in Round #2. That will leave Round #3 for an inviting TE prospect with potential or another WR in this deep of a draft. * I believe getting Will (on't call me Petersen) James sealed the deal for not drafting a CB in the first round. Extra pressure will help McGee and James (or Greer) and allow the Bills to draft one later or look to 2009 draft. Time for bed ... go ahead and pick my thought apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 Yep!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 like dibs has pointed out (and by my count a few times) the ideas touted by posters about what possy to or not to take at what pick are just not founded. it's about the player. you are not drafting a DE, you are drafting the guy who plays DE at that slot. i love the idea of getting a freeney type pure pass rusher off the edge to provide more passrush and to rotate in and out of our line, but is the 3rd rated guy in the draft really that good off the edge? those 2 guys didn't strike me as terrors when i watched them play. a really good WR can make a HUGE impact on ur O. toss in a decent TE and we have an O with more guys who can hurt you since when we had a healthy moulds and price. that will trump a middling or even good DE every time. the point about aaron is good as well. he's not good and dissapears too much until you actually compare him to every other DE in the NFL. bruce smith was the best rusher and far and away the best 3-4 DE ever. asking a de to play like he did is asking your running back to break big runs like barry sanders did but with no line support. it's just not realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trader Posted April 7, 2008 Share Posted April 7, 2008 like dibs has pointed out (and by my count a few times) the ideas touted by posters about what possy to or not to take at what pick are just not founded. it's about the player. you are not drafting a DE, you are drafting the guy who plays DE at that slot. i love the idea of getting a freeney type pure pass rusher off the edge to provide more passrush and to rotate in and out of our line, but is the 3rd rated guy in the draft really that good off the edge? those 2 guys didn't strike me as terrors when i watched them play. a really good WR can make a HUGE impact on ur O. toss in a decent TE and we have an O with more guys who can hurt you since when we had a healthy moulds and price. that will trump a middling or even good DE every time. the point about aaron is good as well. he's not good and dissapears too much until you actually compare him to every other DE in the NFL. bruce smith was the best rusher and far and away the best 3-4 DE ever. asking a de to play like he did is asking your running back to break big runs like barry sanders did but with no line support. it's just not realistic. Last year they could not stop the run or the pass. Harvey is a great run stuffer and a very good pass rusher. Even if we do not take him at 11. I want other teams to think we are going to take him for sure. They will be lining up to make a trade for that number 11 pick and they will all want to draft Harvey. Personaly I think Harvey could be gone by 11 such is the demand for DL. You can bet your butt we will not get to take a DL that high next year because we will not have a pick to get a top one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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