How’s this for a draft strategy

[Mikie2times]

I don't like the idea of drafting a RB when we still have Willis and all these holes, but if the Bills feel Lynch is that rare talent that can make up for the line then you have to consider him. Just because RB isn't a glaring need now it probably will be next year so it's not as if we couldn't still use a long term option. The best way to play this could be to wait until about the 7th or 8th pick and if Lynch is available start making some calls to trade for Willis. I would look for a 2nd round pick. If a team is willing to accept the trade and Lynch remains available when we pick then move forward with both. If Lynch isn't available go ahead and draft Patrick Willis.

[DrDawkinstein]

meh, i think Lynch is overrated anyways. going on what he's shown us on last draft day, expect marv to sit right at 12 and pick the guy we want whether he shouldve been drafted in the top 5 or the bottom 5...

[Mikie2times]

meh, i think Lynch is overrated anyways. going on what he's shown us on last draft day, expect marv to sit right at 12 and pick the guy we want whether he shouldve been drafted in the top 5 or the bottom 5...

But what if he isn't? I'm really starting to think that's possible. He looks very Marshall Faulk like to me and has good size. His YPA career averages against USC are all very solid, so he performs up. Depending on what he runs he might not even be around at 12.

[DrDawkinstein]

idontknow... im FAR FAR from happy with Mcgahees on field performance. but i just see sooooo many holes on defense now. and with Jauron, we're supposed to be a defensive team.

 

if the bills brass DO draft a RB first, i will be surprised, but will also assume they obviously know something we dont regarding Willis and his contract negotiations and attitude, etc.

 

But we are going to be HUUUUURTING on D this year if we dont sign 2 out of Kelsay,Clements,Fletcher. and even if we do sign Kelsay and Clements we're still in trouble at DT and LBs.

 

its an interesting strategy, and lord knows we're going to review every possible option in these 3 months before the draft, but...

 

i guess any way we look at it, the good news is that at 12, we're positioned to get someone who is a very good player.

[billybob]

I think Lynch has a nice range of skills, depending on what happens in free agency I like the following- 1. Jammal Anderson DE, 2. Marshawn Lynch RB, 3.Dwayne Jarrett WR, 4. Patrick Willis LB, 5. Amobi Okoye DT, 6. Justin Blalock OL- I rated these players on 5 factors - 1.chance of being there at 12, 2. quality of player, 3. speed of development 4. strength of need. 5 difficulty of finding type player.

[Pyrite Gal]

I don't like the idea of drafting a RB when we still have Willis and all these holes, but if the Bills feel Lynch is that rare talent that can make up for the line then you have to consider him. Just because RB isn't a glaring need now it probably will be next year so it's not as if we couldn't still use a long term option. The best way to play this could be to wait until about the 7th or 8th pick and if Lynch is available start making some calls to trade for Willis. I would look for a 2nd round pick. If a team is willing to accept the trade and Lynch remains available when we pick then move forward with both. If Lynch isn't available go ahead and draft Patrick Willis.

 

All of this seems fine if ones plan is to wait until the 2008 season to go for the playoffs but given our many years of playoff drought and neither Ralph nor Marv getting any younger, it seems quite unlikely that the Bills would deal with the year of development these two rookies would need in critical roles.

 

1. By selecting Lynch and particularly by trading to do the Bills forgo spending these resources on some our other obvious needs like the DL and the OL, The OL situation is not so solid that you are not merely trading one RB who merely had flashes of brilliance behind this troubled OL for another RB who may be better running without help, but we are banking that he better be unless this team uses some serious resources to upgrade at guard and in Ol depth.

 

It is certainly quite possible if not likely that the Bills will be looking for a starting RB in 2008. However, they are in the drivers's seat regarding WM since if one judges him to be unmotivated, he certainly will have maximum motivation to perform in 2007 heading into his FA year and if he does have a good year, the Bills either have the ability to show him the money if they want or to tag him and trade him if they do not want him.

 

I do not see them twisting themselves up into a dealmaking pretzel to get a replacement for WM this year and though I think they should in fact draft any RB they feel can play the game on the second day of the draft, I see and have heard no reason why they would resist passing on other choices which might help the team win now merely to replace WM whom they at least hold a contractual advantage over and I have heard nothing from the team to indicate they hate or have written off WM as some fans have.

 

2. Willis shows a lot of signs of being a great player as a pro, but if theBills are picking him with idea that he is going to replace F-B then likely this D abd tean performs even worse with this talented rookie manning the MLB spot in the Tampa 2 than we did with Fletch in there.

 

Fletcher is in many ways brings a great combo of skills to the MLB spot in the Tampa 2 (as seen in him leading all LBs and the Bills team in INTs this year). The bottom line is that though Willis brings good one on one coverage abilities and great tackling ability to the game, he simply will read and diagnose plays with the ability of a talented rookie playing the game in his first year, while F-B brought many years of seeing NFL plays to the table,

 

Slotting Willis in at MLB will force the Bills to lodge his playcalling duties elsewhere as it will a while before Willis can call plays at MLB and an open question whether either safety who started (actually played) for the first time as rookies last year could perform this duty.

 

It makes far more football sense to me if one is going to look to the draft to bring an LB starter it actually makes more sense to move Crowell to MLB and then you draft an OLB (Poluszny and Timmons for example) though my sense is you actually are probably better helped at LN by getting a proven pro like a Briggs as he can have the immediate respect of his teammates as a proven performer rather than the uncertainties which make all draft choice speculation at best until proven otherwise.

[Ozymandius]

Slotting Willis in at MLB will force the Bills to lodge his playcalling duties elsewhere as it will a while before Willis can call plays at MLB and an open question whether either safety who started (actually played) for the first time as rookies last year could perform this duty.

That's possibly correct but I find it doubtful. Willis is a special LB and I think he'll call the plays as a rookie.

[JimBob2232]

Shawn Alexander and Edggarin James coulndt fetch a 2nd rounder. Doubtful willis can.

[Pyrite Gal]

That's possibly correct but I find it doubtful. Willis is a special LB and I think he'll call the plays as a rookie.

 

I hope that Jauron and the other professionals who will judge Willis with his job and livelihood on the line do not have the same expectations as you do for what this rookie should do.

 

Do you really expect a rookie to come in and be able to read pro plays at a level sufficient enough for him to read and diagnose the plays developed by a pro OC and then to call the correct shifts for the Jauron/Fewell designed D to combat this D?

 

Certainly pro football ain't rocket science. but I hope that Jauron/Fewell D is complex enough that even a special rookie cannot walk into it and immediately master it at a level where he can read plays quickly enough and make the proper calls to match up against a Mike Martz or some other NFL genius designed O.

 

If all this is so simple that even a special collegian can quickly master and manipulate it, one wonders why they pay all these bucks to the coordinators or need to promote them to be ACs to keep them as their work can be countered by a mid round first round draft pick.

 

One of two things seems to be going on here if you are correct. Mastery of NFL play calling is simple enough that a mid first round choice can master it, or you are willing to see our defense take a step backward while Willis quickly gains the same understanding and control of the D that a 10th year player who is captain of the has.

 

Or perhaps there is some other version of reality I do not see here,

[Ozymandius]

Or perhaps there is some other version of reality I do not see here,

Yeah. The fact that the Tampa-2 is a very simple scheme. And that the Bills wouldn't be asking him to be a d-coordinator. We already have Fewell and we already have a defensive head coach in Jauron. We just need Willis to be a MLB if we drafted him.

[Mikie2times]

I hope that Jauron and the other professionals who will judge Willis with his job and livelihood on the line do not have the same expectations as you do for what this rookie should do.

 

Do you really expect a rookie to come in and be able to read pro plays at a level sufficient enough for him to read and diagnose the plays developed by a pro OC and then to call the correct shifts for the Jauron/Fewell designed D to combat this D?

 

Certainly pro football ain't rocket science. but I hope that Jauron/Fewell D is complex enough that even a special rookie cannot walk into it and immediately master it at a level where he can read plays quickly enough and make the proper calls to match up against a Mike Martz or some other NFL genius designed O.

 

If all this is so simple that even a special collegian can quickly master and manipulate it, one wonders why they pay all these bucks to the coordinators or need to promote them to be ACs to keep them as their work can be countered by a mid round first round draft pick.

 

One of two things seems to be going on here if you are correct. Mastery of NFL play calling is simple enough that a mid first round choice can master it, or you are willing to see our defense take a step backward while Willis quickly gains the same understanding and control of the D that a 10th year player who is captain of the has.

 

Or perhaps there is some other version of reality I do not see here,

By this logic no team would ever start a rookie MLB. It's not written in stone that the MLB calls the plays anyway. They usually do, and London was a very smart and prepared player, so he called them. Everything you find on Willis says he is in the mold of London in terms of preparation. He could probably do it his first year but if we didn't feel comfortable with him Takeo Spikes would do just fine.

[Pyrite Gal]

By this logic no team would ever start a rookie MLB. It's not written in stone that the MLB calls the plays anyway. They usually do, and London was a very smart and prepared player, so he called them. Everything you find on Willis says he is in the mold of London in terms of preparation. He could probably do it his first year but if we didn't feel comfortable with him Takeo Spikes would do just fine.

 

Agreed its not written in stone, which is why on some teams it actually is one of the safeties that call the plays. It certainly must be the case that the player has the knowledge of the defense and the game to read the plays and make the calls, but actually particularly in a noisy stadium its a player near the center of the field who has the ability to be seen (or heard as often it is hand signals when the noise is loud) by both sides of the D to make the calls and also he sees the entire field.

 

Thus, it has been my experience that actually a safety is the second choice for play calling after the MLB. The issue for the Bills is that as both of our safeties were rookie starters, TKO may in fact be the most knowledgable and experienced player on the field to fill this role. In fact there is a lot of player adjustment that all teammates have to do, however we have first hand experience with the difficulties of this playcalling by an OLB as last year while TKO had his back turned to the O as he tried to signal a D shift by the CN on his side of the field, Michael Vick called for the snap and they passed the ball to TKOs zone and ran through the spot for a big gain.

 

My major point in this questioning of what the impact of drafting Willis with the idea of replacing F-B is:

 

1. Willis is great by all predictions but folks need to understand that he will not be able to do everything that F-B brought to the table and we will need to figure out some plan Bs to do this, TKO might be able to do it (though as many folks seem to want him to restructure the idea of suddenly also expecting him to do more certainly sems to run counter to their thinking). Actually I think having TKP do it is probably plan C or D and that actually moving Crowell to MLB is plan B and actually an OLB is probably the first LB choice and a key for drafting Willis if folk insist on this probably asking whether he can play OLB?

 

2. Folks also seem to me to generally overvalue the draft as in the in it really is a speculative activity. Professionals regularly pick clinkers in the first round from Ryan Leaf to Eric Flowers. No matter how good Willis was in college it is simply too much to flat out expect he is going to step in at starting LB since our big problem here in my mind is we have no back-up on the depth chart capable of starting at MLB. The Denney experience and the Moulds experience strikes me as a real possibility for a 1st day pick. Moulds became a solid pro bowler but made next to no contribution his first two year. Denney has become a solid pro who signed a new contract for big bucks after his first go round, but proved to be unable to play his first year until he tamed a problem that he bent over at the point of attack improperly and could be easily tossed aside by most vets.

 

Good players have to come from somewhere and good player tend to be drafted, but though one hopes with good reason even they will be great and they can be expected to start their first year, one would be a fool to plan on this happening for sure with no back-up plan in place.

 

Already with Willis one has to start with back-up plans for other Bills to call plays, to provode the leadership a D captain provides and in terms of real production to find someone else to lead the team in INTS and the entire league for INTs bt an LB.

 

I think the Bills can and may have to find this when/if we lose F-B, but folks need to understand that in the same way offensive linemen are not mere tinker toys that can easily be replaced by someone else. As good as Willis may be and as much as folks seem willing to throw F-B under the bus if we go into next season with Willis as our starting MLB it is quite likely this D will take a step back in production and some very specific plans will need to be made for other players to do the things Fletch did that it is vert doubtful any rookie can do.

 

This replacement can easily payoff well in 2 or 3 years. but if Masrv is fired and Ralph is dead then it will not be a good tradeoff to make.