Bills Off Season Strategy Pt. 1b

[CosmicBills]

Assessing the ’06 Team:

Yeah, this is long. So long I broke it into two parts, Offense and Defense. Obviously I have too much time on my hands, but it’s the playoffs and the Bills aren’t playing. So I’m bored. This is how I cope.

 

It's far too early to discuss with any reliable accuracy the Bills’ “Off Season Plan” since both the combine/draft hype and Free Agency are still over eight weeks away. Until we get closer to those dates, the most efficient way to figure out what strategy the Bills might employ is to evaluate the ’06 roster and see what holes there are to fill.

 

This is the first step the Front Office will take. They will spend the next few weeks reviewing and analyzing their own team to see what positions need to be addressed in the off season. This means pouring over hours of game footage, practice notes and contracts. Since I don't have any of those resources, I'm going from my gut based on what I saw. Consider this the first part of my off season analysis. The next parts will be FA and the Draft.

 

DEFENSE:

 

DE:

Perhaps the happiest person on the roster last year when the Bills announced they would be adopting the Tampa-2 was Aaron Schobel. Unlike Gray’s system, the Tampa-2 finally allowed Schobel and all the Bills’ ends to RUSH THE PASSER. In previous years they were assigned containment zones, zone blitzes and numerous other “wrinkles” which prevented them from doing what they do best. One year into the Tampa-2 and the ends suddenly came alive. And for once, it doesn’t seem to be a huge area of need.

 

The number one priority needs to be resigning Chris Kelsay. Like the DT, the Bills rotate their DE’s in waves. Aaron Schobel, Ryan Denney, Kelsay, Anthony Hargrove are as solid a group as you’ll find. The front office has to do what it can to keep it together.

 

DT:

This is a dangerous group for the fans to evaluate. There is no secret that the Bills’ D was sliced and diced on the ground this season. Fans claim that can be fixed by getting a “Ted Washington type” DT in there. I’m not certain this is the case. My understanding of the Tampa-2 scheme the team runs is it requires a penetrating one gap DT, not a monstrous two gap stuffer. I admit that I am a bit in the dark about the specifics having never played in a Tampa-2 defense (or coached it), but I don’t think the Bills are going to bring in huge body and try to force him into the system. Still, it’s clear the Bills’ need help upfront.

 

What makes this position so tough to predict from an Off Season Strategy perspective is the amount of work the Bills did to the unit last year. Let’s review:

1. They signed Tripplett

2. Traded UP to draft McCargo.

3. Spent a fifth round pick on K. Williams.

4. And then in mid season, added Hargrove to the mix as both a DE and a DT.

 

Injuries and the relative age and inexperience of the DL makes it the most difficult unit to analyze. It’s clear that Tripplett has been somewhat of a disappointment. McCargo and Hargrove haven’t been on the field long enough to properly evaluate. Meanwhile Williams was steady – and logic says he will only get better. The only thing we know for sure is that Tim Anderson is gone.

 

That being the case, it could be easy for Marv and Co. to hold pat – give these guys one more year to see if they age into their roles any better. To me, this would be a mistake. The Bills need to add one DT to the group. Not necessarily a first round pick, but certainly a first day pick needs to be added.

 

As stated above, the Bills play their DL in waves. Right now they have Tripplett/Williams and McCargo (plus AH on pass rush situations) … and that’s it. With Anderson’s departure, a slot will need to be filled. But it will be interesting to see how aggressive the Bills are at plugging that hole. It will say a lot about how highly they regard Williams and McCargo.

 

OLB:

How will Spikes bounce back from the Achilles injury? That was the question heading into the ’06 season and it’s the same question the Bills face as they head into the off season. Spikes played this year and showed flashes of his old self. Yet, he was bit by the injury bug too much to have any real sort of answer. Optimists feel that it takes two years (much like an ACL) to come back from an Achilles injury. Skeptics say you can never come all the way back.

 

The issue was exacerbated when Crowell went down with a broken foot towards the end of the season. Rookie Keith Ellison stepped up and played well – but he seems to be the same sort of player as Crowell: small, scrappy and athletic. He’ll get beat up by bruising blockers but will make plays in the passing game. Still, I think the Bills are impressed by Ellison and still think highly of Crowell. That being the case, I think they feel confident heading into the off season with little to no shakeup here.

 

If Spikes struggles again in ’07, this will jump up to a huge area of need for this team. But right now, they are pretty stable.

 

MLB:

Yes, Fletcher is on the wrong side of 30. Yes, Fletcher still makes too many tackles down the field. But damn if Fletch isn’t the heart and soul of this defense. He is a locker room leader, makes all the defensive calls, and plays well in the Tampa-2 defense – his team high 4 interceptions attest to that.

 

Still, every interview I’ve seen with him makes me believe he won’t be coming back. He has left the window open, but he seems ready to leave the Bills behind after they failed to extend him prior to this season. And truthfully, I don’t expect the Bills to put up much of a fight. They want to get younger in the middle and more athletic.

 

The FA MLB pool is slim which means this will be a position addressed in the draft --possibly in the first round, but certainly on the first day. I would rank the need for a MLB right up there with a solid Number 2 WR and ahead of a DT.

 

CB:

I’m as optimistic as they come and really want to believe Nate will come back. But the realist says he’s already packing up for NYC. Still, this is one of the easiest positions to analyze on the team.

 

With Nate, the Bills are as solid as any other team in the NFL. McGee, Nate, Thomas (assuming he is resigned) and Youboty are solid. With another year to develop, the Bills will be able to nurse Youboty along and see if he can challenge for the nickel spot in camp.

 

Without Nate, the Bills are in trouble. McGee is too often nicked up to be a shut down corner. Thomas does not impress me as a number 2 guy. It would force the Bills to rush Youboty along – which could turn out great or could be a disaster. Point being, if Nate goes, there is a large hole to fill.

 

The common wisdom on TSW these days seems to be “sign Samuel!” But to me, this is a bigger pipe dream than resigning Nate. Let me walk everyone through this. The pessimists believe Nate won’t come back because the Bills won’t open up their wallets wide enough to keep him. Here’s the newsflash: Samuel’s 11 INTs this season assures that he will be just as pricey as Nate. So, if the Bills won’t pay for Nate, why would they pay for Samuel? I don’t think it’s a secret that, all things being equal, the Bills would rather keep Nate than get Samuel. So forget fixing this hole in FA.

 

That means that the Bills would be forced to use a high draft pick on a CB who could step in and be a number 2 (eventually a number 1) right away. With the 12th pick in the draft, this is certainly possible – even if it would kill some posters to see the Bills use yet ANOTHER first round pick on a DB.

 

Still, I have my fingers crossed that Nate will be wearing a Buffalo on his helmet in ’07.

 

SS/FS:

Okay, I lied. This is the easiest position to assess. Two rookies who played above expectations this year will return. The PT they got this year will be invaluable down the road. I expect both DW and KS to be strengths on this D next year.

[BoondckCL]

Assessing the ’06 Team:

Yeah, this is long. So long I broke it into two parts, Offense and Defense. Obviously I have too much time on my hands, but it’s the playoffs and the Bills aren’t playing. So I’m bored. This is how I cope.

 

It's far too early to discuss with any reliable accuracy the Bills’ “Off Season Plan” since both the combine/draft hype and Free Agency are still over eight weeks away. Until we get closer to those dates, the most efficient way to figure out what strategy the Bills might employ is to evaluate the ’06 roster and see what holes there are to fill.

 

This is the first step the Front Office will take. They will spend the next few weeks reviewing and analyzing their own team to see what positions need to be addressed in the off season. This means pouring over hours of game footage, practice notes and contracts. Since I don't have any of those resources, I'm going from my gut based on what I saw. Consider this the first part of my off season analysis. The next parts will be FA and the Draft.

 

DEFENSE:

 

DE:

Perhaps the happiest person on the roster last year when the Bills announced they would be adopting the Tampa-2 was Aaron Schobel. Unlike Gray’s system, the Tampa-2 finally allowed Schobel and all the Bills’ ends to RUSH THE PASSER. In previous years they were assigned containment zones, zone blitzes and numerous other “wrinkles” which prevented them from doing what they do best. One year into the Tampa-2 and the ends suddenly came alive. And for once, it doesn’t seem to be a huge area of need.

 

The number one priority needs to be resigning Chris Kelsay. Like the DT, the Bills rotate their DE’s in waves. Aaron Schobel, Ryan Denney, Kelsay, Anthony Hargrove are as solid a group as you’ll find. The front office has to do what it can to keep it together.

 

DT:

This is a dangerous group for the fans to evaluate. There is no secret that the Bills’ D was sliced and diced on the ground this season. Fans claim that can be fixed by getting a “Ted Washington type” DT in there. I’m not certain this is the case. My understanding of the Tampa-2 scheme the team runs is it requires a penetrating one gap DT, not a monstrous two gap stuffer. I admit that I am a bit in the dark about the specifics having never played in a Tampa-2 defense (or coached it), but I don’t think the Bills are going to bring in huge body and try to force him into the system. Still, it’s clear the Bills’ need help upfront.

 

What makes this position so tough to predict from an Off Season Strategy perspective is the amount of work the Bills did to the unit last year. Let’s review:

1. They signed Tripplett

2. Traded UP to draft McCargo.

3. Spent a fifth round pick on K. Williams.

4. And then in mid season, added Hargrove to the mix as both a DE and a DT.

 

Injuries and the relative age and inexperience of the DL makes it the most difficult unit to analyze. It’s clear that Tripplett has been somewhat of a disappointment. McCargo and Hargrove haven’t been on the field long enough to properly evaluate. Meanwhile Williams was steady – and logic says he will only get better. The only thing we know for sure is that Tim Anderson is gone.

 

That being the case, it could be easy for Marv and Co. to hold pat – give these guys one more year to see if they age into their roles any better. To me, this would be a mistake. The Bills need to add one DT to the group. Not necessarily a first round pick, but certainly a first day pick needs to be added.

 

As stated above, the Bills play their DL in waves. Right now they have Tripplett/Williams and McCargo (plus AH on pass rush situations) … and that’s it. With Anderson’s departure, a slot will need to be filled. But it will be interesting to see how aggressive the Bills are at plugging that hole. It will say a lot about how highly they regard Williams and McCargo.

 

OLB:

How will Spikes bounce back from the Achilles injury? That was the question heading into the ’06 season and it’s the same question the Bills face as they head into the off season. Spikes played this year and showed flashes of his old self. Yet, he was bit by the injury bug too much to have any real sort of answer. Optimists feel that it takes two years (much like an ACL) to come back from an Achilles injury. Skeptics say you can never come all the way back.

 

The issue was exacerbated when Crowell went down with a broken foot towards the end of the season. Rookie Keith Ellison stepped up and played well – but he seems to be the same sort of player as Crowell: small, scrappy and athletic. He’ll get beat up by bruising blockers but will make plays in the passing game. Still, I think the Bills are impressed by Ellison and still think highly of Crowell. That being the case, I think they feel confident heading into the off season with little to no shakeup here.

 

If Spikes struggles again in ’07, this will jump up to a huge area of need for this team. But right now, they are pretty stable.

 

MLB:

Yes, Fletcher is on the wrong side of 30. Yes, Fletcher still makes too many tackles down the field. But damn if Fletch isn’t the heart and soul of this defense. He is a locker room leader, makes all the defensive calls, and plays well in the Tampa-2 defense – his team high 4 interceptions attest to that.

 

Still, every interview I’ve seen with him makes me believe he won’t be coming back. He has left the window open, but he seems ready to leave the Bills behind after they failed to extend him prior to this season. And truthfully, I don’t expect the Bills to put up much of a fight. They want to get younger in the middle and more athletic.

 

The FA MLB pool is slim which means this will be a position addressed in the draft --possibly in the first round, but certainly on the first day. I would rank the need for a MLB right up there with a solid Number 2 WR and ahead of a DT.

 

CB:

I’m as optimistic as they come and really want to believe Nate will come back. But the realist says he’s already packing up for NYC. Still, this is one of the easiest positions to analyze on the team.

 

With Nate, the Bills are as solid as any other team in the NFL. McGee, Nate, Thomas (assuming he is resigned) and Youboty are solid. With another year to develop, the Bills will be able to nurse Youboty along and see if he can challenge for the nickel spot in camp.

 

Without Nate, the Bills are in trouble. McGee is too often nicked up to be a shut down corner. Thomas does not impress me as a number 2 guy. It would force the Bills to rush Youboty along – which could turn out great or could be a disaster. Point being, if Nate goes, there is a large hole to fill.

 

The common wisdom on TSW these days seems to be “sign Samuel!” But to me, this is a bigger pipe dream than resigning Nate. Let me walk everyone through this. The pessimists believe Nate won’t come back because the Bills won’t open up their wallets wide enough to keep him. Here’s the newsflash: Samuel’s 11 INTs this season assures that he will be just as pricey as Nate. So, if the Bills won’t pay for Nate, why would they pay for Samuel? I don’t think it’s a secret that, all things being equal, the Bills would rather keep Nate than get Samuel. So forget fixing this hole in FA.

 

That means that the Bills would be forced to use a high draft pick on a CB who could step in and be a number 2 (eventually a number 1) right away. With the 12th pick in the draft, this is certainly possible – even if it would kill some posters to see the Bills use yet ANOTHER first round pick on a DB.

 

Still, I have my fingers crossed that Nate will be wearing a Buffalo on his helmet in ’07.

 

SS/FS:

Okay, I lied. This is the easiest position to assess. Two rookies who played above expectations this year will return. The PT they got this year will be invaluable down the road. I expect both DW and KS to be strengths on this D next year.

 

Feeling a little lazy, Cliff Notes anyone?

[CosmicBills]

Feeling a little lazy, Cliff Notes anyone?

 

I'm selling them for a quarter.

[BoondckCL]

I'm selling them for a quarter.

 

It will be in the mail tomorrow.

 

This is extortion.

[CosmicBills]

It will be in the mail tomorrow.

 

This is extortion.

[Dibs]

Assessing the ’06 Team:

Yeah, this is long. So long I broke it into two parts, Offense and Defense. Obviously I have too much time on my hands, but it’s the playoffs and the Bills aren’t playing. So I’m bored. This is how I cope.

 

It's far too early to discuss with any reliable accuracy.......

Nice.

[Pyrite Gal]

Thanks for the in-depth thoughtful analysis, while there are those without the attention span to read anything longer than a comic strip, the effort is greatly appreciated and read by some. The great thing about TSW is that everyone is free to chose how they spend their time and can read if they want and choose to comment if they want. If folks see this as a waste of time its their right and that's great

 

(the only thing that is weird is those who complain a post is a waste of time and then choose to waste more of their ohh so valuable time posting to say a post is a waste of time)

 

At any rate, my sense is:

 

1. I aggree with your overall assessment that drawing solid conclusions about the Bills strategy (much less specifics about whom they will pick, go after in the FA, or even resign from our own FAs) is very difficult to do until we see how the Combine, draft entry, and a month of hype (to assess as best we can what our opponents are going to do) happens.

 

The best bet at this point is really careful review and assessment of our own players and needs.

 

2. DE- Agreed generally. I must admit that Hargrove appears to be a fan favorite because he is so excited and demonstrative. However, though I think this aspect might make him a great Buffalo Jill, I'm not horribly impressed with his play and would not be shocked or disappointed if he were beaten out in competition next pre-season.

 

3. DT- Given the huge amount the Bills got gashed by runners last year and given that Jauron is a defensive guy by experience going back to his training days it seems quite likely that the Bills will do something here.

 

The irony in all this is the actually the seeming prototype of the penetrating DT who actually has a wide body so he can command the middle if run at is actually probably Sam Adams. However, in the end and definitely without buddy Phat Pat here to keep him thinking about what his teammates were doing he appeared to be fairly uncoachable in terms of getting him to play any other way than what he chose to do.

 

Obviously the braintrust saw a lot in McCargo and those who seem to want to write him off after 1 year are not only premature in that it takes a good three years of play to do a real assessment for most players but even more so his 1st rounder contract and the amount we spent on him will get him every chance to be used at critical times as a DT whether he deserves it or not.

 

Anderson getting a visit from the Turk is a situation which creates a hole which they can fill with a pick-up, but my sense is that betweeb Jauron having faith in his ability to make his scheme work with most reasonable players and with McCargo coiming back I would not be surprised if the braintrust relies on these two conditions to fix our clear shortcomings at DT.

 

4. OLB- What happens with TKO will make a huge difference in whether this is an area or need or we for the most part stand pat.

 

My sense is that TKO shows the signs as best as I can tell of a man who worked incredibly hard and diligently to make a comeback and this was shown in his very first play from scrimmage where he got a sack.

 

However, judging from the fact he seemed to be working so hard and clearly was a driven man I think unfortunately he worked a little too hard and rushed himself back. I think this was shown in:

 

A. The nagging injuries he suddenly became regularly afflicted with which were not something that happened to him pre-injury.

B. Him getting hit with a hammy strain soon after he took the field.

C. The coaches not having the gutsiness to slow him down but they shifted him to the SLN slot to minimize some of the running he had to do.

 

I hope and actually expect that he will be a little less frantic and driven in working out this off-season and he will simply use the time to rest and heal a bit.

 

Ellison I like also but see him as a good back-up and average starter at best so I hope TKO comes back.

 

5. MLB- Agreed. I like him a lot and think he has been productive as a Bill and really has played multiple critical roles for us. It is unclear to me however, whether our generally losing record with him as a player leader speaks to him being a productive player who simply falls short of being a great player because he has not simply willed his teammates to do better than they normally would do and thus win, though I think it is more likely that between TDs dysfunctionality which led to boner like his hiring of GW (a great DC but nor a good HC as I think TD was attracted to him because he knew he could beat him if GW tried to pull a Cowher on him) and his teammates not being good enough that Fletcher did the best he could though in the end it was inadequate.

 

Despite his inadequacies in overall results though, the main reason I also wish the Bills had shown him the money and locked up an extension for him already is that we do not have a replacement for him on this team (DiGregorio? please).

 

Talent wise I think our best bet would actually be to have Crowell shift back to the MLB position he originally trained for until his very good back-up play made him the obvious replacement for Posey and then TKO when his achilles forced him to flip sides.

 

Still this leaves us with a definite need to draft an LB or spend heavily on one in free agency but I would not be surprised if this get is an OLB and Crowell moves inside.

 

Folks ragging on F-B's play seems ill-informed to me. He has the football sense and the sideline to sideling speed which makes him the perfect MLB for the Tampa 2 and even the complaint of some that he makes too many tackles downfield seems to me more of an indictment of our DTs than of Fletch or of the coaches because he is not used properly to get to the tackle at the LOS, If the problem was actually F-Bs inability to fill the gaps properly then rather than racking up so many tackles, the outcome would actually be that he would be bulled over and miss tackles or at least would not have a 2:1 ratio of solo to assisted tackles. if he got bulled over at the point of attack. he RN would either escape his grasp or F-B would get assisted tackles rather than solo tackles.

 

I hope they resign him (though even if they do I think some additional leadership from the players will be necessary to put this team over the top mostly because if he is gone I do not see the many skills he brings easily replaced by anyone on the roster, by most FAs (for example Porter at LB can produce the numbers but I don't think has the character or knowledge of the game), or by a rookie.

 

CB- I agree this is another area where if we do not sign our primary guy going FA then we have some issues. The good news is while I see no real MLB options (if Crowell moves over we need to spend big bucks to replace him at OLB) on the roster, I agree with you that we at least have the potential to solve this problem if Youbouty develops like he should.

 

S- Agreed

 

Overall a good job and thanks

[Fan in San Diego]

Good analysis. We will have to see how these scenerio's play out. This is why the off season is fun. Watching the chess match unfold.

[ofiba]

Watching the chess match unfold.

 

Do you mean between the Bills and potential free agents or between tgreg and pyrite for the longest post of all time?

 

All kidding aside, thanks for the breakdown tgreg.

[coltrane34]

No wonder you are a writer. Good analysis, but you forgot to mention how Buster Davis was going to save this defense, and that Nate couldn't ever go to the Jets, because then I would have to burn my jersey.

[tennesseeboy]

Well thought out, and I agree with pretty much everything. Thanks.

[CosmicBills]

Still this leaves us with a definite need to draft an LB or spend heavily on one in free agency but I would not be surprised if this get is an OLB and Crowell moves inside.

 

That is an interesting possibility I didn't consider (and probably should have). However, my gut reaction is that the front office wants someone more physical in the middle than Fletcher or Crowell. But that is based on an assumption, not facts. That's why I expect them to draft a MLB rather than an OLB.

 

Of course, one scenario that could play out would be for the Bills to go hard after Adalius Thomas (OLB, Baltimore) if he reaches the FA market and then move Crowell back inside (or even put Thomas there). Though, I'm expecting Thomas to either be resigned or too expensive for Buffalo to consider. But that move would allow them to head into '07 without losing a ton of experience in the LB corps.

[CosmicBills]

Do you mean between the Bills and potential free agents or between tgreg and pyrite for the longest post of all time?

 

All kidding aside, thanks for the breakdown tgreg.

Pyrite and I just like to expound.

[MattyT]

This is still Part 1?! Good Lord!!!

[Orton's Arm]

Feeling a little lazy, Cliff Notes anyone?

Stop being lazy. His analysis may be long, but he says something meaningful with every sentence. It's worth the read.

[CosmicBills]

Stop being lazy. His analysis may be long, but he says something meaningful with every sentence. It's worth the read.

 

Thanks, glad you enjoyed it.

[billybob]

About the Tampa 2 -- Its about being quick not about being small-- the Tampa 2 can work if you have Warren Sapp, Tommy Harris type quickness at DT so you can shoot the gaps- Have I ever mentioned how much I hate systems coaches- It's amazing to me how few coaches can modify their "systems" to fit the talent they have- the word Football modifies the word genius the same way the word special modifies the word Olympics.

[Dibs]

About the Tampa 2 -- Its about being quick not about being small-- the Tampa 2 can work if you have Warren Sapp, Tommy Harris type quickness at DT so you can shoot the gaps.....

I totally agree with the concept you put forward......but.....& you just knew there would be a but coming.....

Warren Sapp 6'2" 300lbs

Tommie Harris 6'3" 300lbs

....your examples are examples of small quick guys.

[billybob]

I totally agree with the concept you put forward......but.....& you just knew there would be a but coming.....

Warren Sapp 6'2" 300lbs

Tommie Harris 6'3" 300lbs

....your examples are examples of small quick guys.

Right and Triplett and Williams are example of small not so quick guys.

[Dibs]

Right and Triplett and Williams are example of small not so quick guys.

But certainly quick enough for the system.....they fit well.

 

I thought your initial point was that we could go for a heavier guy if he was 'quick'.....i.e. don't just descriminate against the heavier guys because they are heavier. That obviously wasn't your point at all.

What I see now is that you believe the guys that were specifically brought in because they fit the system......don't actually fit the system.

 

If we had a Sapp or even a Harris, Triplett would probably shine. Who knows, Williams could develop into one.

Williams profile numbers show similar quickness to Bunkleys profile numbers.

McCargo may well be that guy......or our 1st pick this year.....or via FA.