Bet the Lions on Thursday

[Rico]

Don't touch this game, stash your money for the playoffs...

Peyton Gump/Tony Dungy & Marty are golden.

[ATBNG]

I actually like Miami today, even though I usually grab home dogs. AFC teams are really starting to dominate NFC competition in the last few weeks and this is a light number. Also like Tampa (Dallas should be flat) and KC, with KC being my play of the day.

[Swift Sylvan]

I hope no one bet the house on Detroit, at the moment 24-10 Mia

[Mikie2times]

I hope no one bet the house on Detroit, at the moment 24-10 Mia

846533[/snapback]

Ya me to..

[Swift Sylvan]

Ya me to..

846538[/snapback]

 

I have a friend who's Lion's fan, he said regardless of what he does, since he plays fantasy too, they always dissapoint him, alas I think it is a cursed team. Depending on what you bet I have some extra food and supplies I can send to you....

[ExWNYer]

Look at how Miami is winning right now. Massive amounts of turnovers, including +4 at Chicago and two TD returns this week. Ronnie Brown is not healthy; Joey Harrington is not playing well. This 3 game winning streak is a fluke.  Now Miami heads into Detroit as 3 point favorites? Even better on wagerline the public is pounding Miami at almost a 70% clip. The Lions are good at home, and usually even better on Thanksgiving. You also have to figure they will know how to defense Harrington. If you’re going to jump on I would buy now while it's still +3.

843896[/snapback]

It's as solid a play as you will find all year. I'll be placing my large size bet on it. I never recommend betting the house on one game.

843938[/snapback]

 

Nice call.

[Mikie2times]

Nice call.   

846619[/snapback]

Do you win every bet? Maybe you missed the dozen other games I hit on.

[bartshan-83]

Do you win every bet? Maybe you missed the dozen other games I hit on.

846693[/snapback]

Dude, you have to be able to take a little sht in good fun. I didn't touch it, but obviously your thinking was on the right track (and you don't need my validation for that).

 

Maybe next week hit us up with the real winners?

 

[dundy249]

Good call

[Proteus]

Do you win every bet? Maybe you missed the dozen other games I hit on.

846693[/snapback]

Now your gonna cry when someone calls out your sorry ass on your horrible bet. Nice job buddy.

[Mikie2times]

Now your gonna cry when someone calls out your sorry ass on your horrible bet.  Nice job buddy.

846733[/snapback]

You registered to say that? Dusch bag.

[JM57]

You registered to say that? Dusch bag.

846736[/snapback]

 

Just to let you know, I bet on Miami (before seeing this post, obviously). I had my reasons, like you had yours:

 

My main reasons:

1. Detroit is still a bad football team

 

2. Joey Harrington would go into Detroit and prove that a QB can't have any success without a decent supporting cast. (like them or not Chambers, McMichael, Booker and Brown are better than the 2 busts (Williams and Roges) that the Lions gave Harrington.

[Mikie2times]

Dude, you have to be able to take a little sht in good fun.  I didn't touch it, but obviously your thinking was on the right track (and you don't need my validation for that).

 

Maybe next week hit us up with the real winners?

 

846721[/snapback]

It's not that, I mean I take this stuff very seriously. It makes up the majority of my income so I have to. Most the people here don't know how to handicap games. I'm not trying to be an arrogant a-hole but if somebody tried to do what you do for a living you would be able to know pretty quick if they know what their doing or not. I do this 40+ hours a week, and after an insane last month I figured I'd throw some people a bone. The bottom-line is this is a very up and down business and even the best bets have more then a 40% chance of losing. If I'm going to get called out on every loss, what’s the point of even posting?

[daquixers_is_back]

It's not that, I mean I take this stuff very seriously. It makes up the majority of my income so I have to. Most the people here don't know how to handicap games. I'm not trying to be an arrogant a-hole but if somebody tried to do what you do for a living you would be able to know pretty quick if they know what their doing or not.  I do this 40+ hours a week, and after an insane last month I figured I'd throw some people a bone. The bottom-line is this is a very up and down business and even the best bets have more then a 40% chance of losing. If I'm going to get called out on every loss, what’s the point of even posting?

846739[/snapback]

 

By all means ... teach us handicapping (no sarcasm here - completely serious)

[Mikie2times]

Just to let you know, I bet on Miami (before seeing this post, obviously). I had my reasons, like you had yours:

 

My main reasons:

1. Detroit is still a bad football team

 

2. Joey Harrington would go into Detroit and prove that a QB can't have any success without a decent supporting cast. (like them or not Chambers, McMichael, Booker and Brown are better than the 2 busts (Williams and Roges) that the Lions gave Harrington.

846737[/snapback]

1. True (You can still win a fortune on bad football teams)

2. I thought the opposite, as in Detroit would know how to defend him. Good call on your part. I think I also underestimated the loss of Kevin Jones.

[Mikie2times]

By all means ... teach us handicapping (no sarcasm here - completely serious)

846741[/snapback]

I would need a book. Different rules apply to different sports. Different rules apply within those sports during different times of the year. If you have a specific question I will be happy to answer it the best I can. I don't know everything, and know certain areas more then others. I would also recommend BuffOrange thoughts on the NFL, he clearly knows what he's doing.

[daquixers_is_back]

I would need a book. Different rules apply to different sports. Different rules apply within those sports during different times of the year. If you have a specific question I will be happy to answer it the best I can. I don't know everything, and know certain areas more then others. I would also recommend BuffOrange thoughts on the NFL, he clearly knows what he's doing.

846745[/snapback]

 

I usually on bet on the NFL ... I have won here and there (such as $140 last week), but thats merely because I teased all of the games.

 

What is your thoughts on Sunday's games?

[BuffOrange]

I didn't realize you took it that seriously. I do it more recreational - though I do get lots of income from poker - and that has taught me a lot about short term variance and luck; and helped me develop a disdain for many of the hindsight arguments we see here.

 

What are your thoughts on homefield advantage? Is it generally 3pts across the board or more/less for certain teams? If the latter, do they distribute it to the correct teams? Clearly 11 weeks of this season isn't enough of a sample to determine how important it is to a given team.

 

A few pet peeves I have:

A) the notion that homefield is more important to the Colts than most teams - this is clearly wrong given their similar home/away record under Manning as QB.

B) Seattle is "the toughest place to play" - they were undefeated last year because they had a really good team. When they were an average team in '04, they got destroyed by the Bills and lost to a mediocre Rams team twice.

 

Some other casual observations over the years:

A) It means close to nothing to any team in the NFC South.

B) KC & St. Louis I think have the widest discrepancy in how they play home and away. Because of this, I was shocked that the Chiefs went into St. Louis and won, though I guess the Rams muffed a punt and did some other stupid things in that game.

 

If I wasn't lazy I might back up these thoughts with research ATS #'s over the last X years; but I'm reasonably certain the above is correct.

[Rico]

It's not that, I mean I take this stuff very seriously. It makes up the majority of my income so I have to. Most the people here don't know how to handicap games. I'm not trying to be an arrogant a-hole but if somebody tried to do what you do for a living you would be able to know pretty quick if they know what their doing or not.  I do this 40+ hours a week, and after an insane last month I figured I'd throw some people a bone. The bottom-line is this is a very up and down business and even the best bets have more then a 40% chance of losing. If I'm going to get called out on every loss, what’s the point of even posting?

846739[/snapback]

Don't let 'em get you down... like you said, nobody wins them all.

[Mikie2times]

I didn't realize you took it that seriously.  I do it more recreational - though I do get lots of income from poker - and that has taught me a lot about short term variance and luck; and helped me develop a disdain for many of the hindsight arguments we see here.

 

What are your thoughts on homefield advantage?  Is it generally 3pts across the board or more/less for certain teams?  If the latter, do they distribute it to the correct teams?  Clearly 11 weeks of this season isn't enough of a sample to determine how important it is to a given team. 

 

A few pet peeves I have:

A) the notion that homefield is more important to the Colts than most teams - this is clearly wrong given their similar home/away record under Manning as QB.

B) Seattle is "the toughest place to play" - they were undefeated last year because they had a really good team.  When they were an average team in '04, they got destroyed by the Bills and lost to a mediocre Rams team twice. 

 

Some other casual observations over the years:

A) It means close to nothing to any team in the NFC South.

B) KC & St. Louis I think have the widest discrepancy in how they play home and away.  Because of this, I was shocked that the Chiefs went into St. Louis and won, though I guess the Rams muffed a punt and did some other stupid things in that game.

 

If I wasn't lazy I might back up these thoughts with research ATS #'s over the last X years; but I'm reasonably certain the above is correct.

846755[/snapback]

Like you said, variance. If you’re doing really well and expect that to become the norm you'll fry. Last month I wen't 65-20 which is the best month I've ever had. Knowing what I know, what you know, I would probably be a better bet to fade this month. Nobody is capable of achieveing those numbers with any regularity. I think way to many go wrong following such a hot streak. The inevitable losing streak will come, and if your not prepared for it mentally you might risk way more then you can afford to lose.

 

As for your thoughts on home field advantage 3 would make up the average league wide home field advantage. Some teams like KC and Denver will consistently get 4 to 4.5. I'll vary the number depending on the variables of the game, and so will the books. HF is mostly a motivational thing, so you have to play it like in terms of the situation. If a team isn't motivated then the fans probably won't be either, and HF won't factor in heavily. You often see this with the Colts when they're a double digit favorite. You also have to look at team's coming off great ATS home records to get a .5 to 1 point increase the following year. Obviously the books don't like to get burned twice and the public is still willing to buy.