Most NFL teams are lacking with their QB depth.

[ganesh]

I'm with you Tipster, last year was JP's 1st as he redshirted his rookie year due to injury. He looked like a rookie,  sometimes good, sometimes not so much. I look for him to hit his stride this year. Some of the IDIOTS on this board would have been glad to be rid of Favre or P Manning had they played their rookie year for us.

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Especially considering that our Defense failed to keep up its end of the stick and the coaching staff repeatedly chose to pass rather than throw and protect their young QB and what a horrible line.

[BobbyC81]

I'm curious what you judge as being a solid starter?

 

By my judgment, about a third of the teams in the NFL have what I consider to be a solid starting QB,  The rest IMHO (including the Bills) have a troubled situation with their starting QB that runs the gamut from hopeful to quite doubtful regarding their QB prospects.

 

This is an interesting question so I hope I find the time over the next few days to look at this with some specificity.  However, mostly through strength of numbers I would put the Bills much more toward the hopeful.

 

Just as an off-hand example without having examined this with the detail needed to make a very good argument, a few examples of my judgments are:

 

1. Skins- Starter Mark Brunell finished with not a bad QB ratin last year, but given that they have none other than Todd Collins and a rookie behind him, this strikes me as a troubled situation at best which given Brunell's mileage and history of injury and the not ready at all to start talent behind him.  One can be charitable and reasonably give the team the benefit of the doubt here as they did crawl into the playoffs last year, but even if one has enough grace to call Brunell a solid starter you would reasonably call this a troubled situation and have real doubts about their QB play being even adequate in 2006.

 

2. Chicago- I do not think there is anyway one can describe this 2005 playoff team as having a solid starter at QB.  Rex Grossman is the best performer they got and he has been a victim of so many serious injuries as a player one has to put them in the doubtful category.  Fortunately for them, having a solid QB is not a "must-have" to proviude a slot in the playoffs and make it a successful season, but the more mediocre your QB the better your D needs to be.

 

3. Tampa Bay- Here is yet another 05 playoff team where one at least flirts with and probably goes over the line calling him a solif starter. His QB rating (a very flawed statistical measure of QB performance but the best QB stat around) was at about the 80 level which in some folks minds divides th adequate from the inadequate, but if you play TB an opponent is looking elsewhere to stop this team than focusing on Simms who I think one can onky call solid if you give him credit for making the playoffs which other stars on this team carried him to,

 

Will the Bills make the playoffs in '06? Very doubtful.

 

Will any of the 3 Bills who might become the starter have a successful season?  Doubtful also any of these individual wiil.

 

Will the Bills have a successful player at QB in 06. The asnwer could well be no, but I think the answer is probably yes.

 

In my sense the odds for the individuals are these:

 

1. Holcomb- I would put the chances of him being a successful starter at no higher than 25%.  However, I give him this 1 out of 4 shot at producing a QB rating in the upper half of the NFL and leading the team to at least a reasonable shot at the playoffs though i doubt they make it (remember in '04 even that team led by Bledsoe came within a game and posted a winning record.  Jauron would have to ptoduce the same D results he had when he was NFL Coach of the Year with Chicago a few years ago.  While no one will get rich banking on this team being a defensive juggernaut, one would also be silly to totally say it is impossible that this team which will bring back a reinforced core of a D which finished second statistically in the NFL year before last wil not post impressive results this year.

 

If Jauron finds a way to produce good results from this Cover 2 unit with undersized DTs (going by the traditional run stopping model), Holcomb could make some noise leading this team. He has produced as a playoff QB episodically in his career and he now has even more expeerience which allows him to get mileage out of mundane performance in a Brad Johnson like way.

 

2. Nall- I would put his chances at having a productive season as starter at no more than 10%.  However, he has been watching Brett Favre for a while which has to help in the book knowledge area.  In addition, with the brief performances he got backing up Favre he actually was quite productive on the field.

 

Finally, the Bills braintrust saw something in him they liked a lot and even though I give him a slim chance of working it out, it is possible.

3. JP- I know some TSW folks have written him off and it is quite true he has not produced as a QB in his truncated by injury rookie year or running the D until he was benched first full season.  However writing him off now and acknowledging how stinky his 05 play was are two very different things. While in no way making a claim JP is the equivalent of Favre or Young, the lessons of reality have simply been taught about jettisoning a QB too early.

 

JP was a ballsy productive stud running for his life at Tulane. Between those accomplishments (which were no guarantee he could be an adequste Pro QB) TD at least was smart enough to see that Bledsoe could not be counted upon to do the job and that the 2005 drafts had little offer at QB.  His mistake was promoting JP to starter since he was so frustrated with Bledsoe (whom he was mistaken to extend).

 

I was impressed with JPs initial pre-season work as a rookie til hhe got injured (where not you and if not what problems do you point to).

 

I was impressed with the continual improvement in JPs performance that season after MM taught him a valuable lesson (if you put on the uniform be prepared to play) by throwing him to the wolves to mop up against NE and in future mop=ups he improved from being garbage to being quite impressive by the end of /04.

 

I thought he sucked last year even despite flashes of brilliance as in pre-season and in the first quarter of the Miami game.

 

He may have been ruined in terms of development by operating within a virtually totally dysfunctional O and team last year, but to write him off at this point would judt be silly.

 

I think he has the same real talents he had coming out of college, and I give him a 1 ot of 3 chance at being productive this year.

 

Now if (and its probably a big IF) the Bills braintrust is smart enough and strong enough to let this be decided on the field, rather than make the same fatal mistakes Butler made with promoting TC, spening on Hobert, and pre-maturely giving a bonus to RJ, or the mistake TD made of extending Bledsoe after a horrendous season and then promoting JP who had not taken the job on the field, then the Bills can actually add together the chances of these three players to compute their chances for finding a successful QB in 06,

 

I think a 10% chance for Nall, a 25% chace for Holcomb, and a 33% chance for JP adds up to well over a 60% chance the Bills will find a successful QB from one of these three. The key will be for the braintrust to have the smart and the strength to let this play out on the field.

 

I like these chances much better than I do those of the three teams I mentioned above.

 

So I agree that about 2/3 of NFL teams are troubled at the QB position and sheerly through strength of numbers of each of these men being doubtful to work out, but in reality someone can step up.  I'd go with us as QB.  The more critical issue for this team getting Ws will be wether the ST maintains its good production (quite likely I think as Marv et al will make it an evern higher focus than MM) AND the D is productive (maybe it will be as a former NFL coach of the year with defensive chops has probabbly forgotten more than you orI remember about NFLs Ds.  However, I do not see how we will get it done.

 

However, I watch the game every weekend because I am surprised every weekend and am not a legend in my own mind (depsite the length of my posts) who thinks he knows it all.

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I'm glad to see someone back up their claims with some solid analysis.