Josh Allen turnover narrative, rollercoaster narrative...

[Wizard]

Like the discussion. Two thoughts:

 

First, I think Allen has such big performances that his average/slighly below average looks even worse than it really is.  He has been average minus the 6TD game  the past 5 weeks or so, thus recency bias probably comes into play.

 

Second, even though Allen is a top 10 player in the league this year, his performance is somewhat expected. A player (no matter how great) is going to have stretches whether it is a few games in a row or a season when they still are great but not overwhelming better than other top-tier athletes. The Regression to the mean concept applies to even the very best.

 

 

Edited 35 minutes ago by Wizard

[Slack_in_MA]

Josh is one of those unique talents that when he makes a mistake, it's amplified by a factor of X. 

 

I've lived in the Boston area for over 30 years, through all the Super Bowls, and witnessed the same thing about Tom Brady.

 

He'd throw a pick or fumble (yes, it actually happened) and people would be dumbfounded-- must be someone else's fault, he's a unicorn, etc, etc.

 

Fortunately for Brady, he had SB success early in his career, and didn't have the same weight of expectations hanging over him his entire career.

 

Deep down we all know it-- life isn't always fair.

[BuffaloBillies]

I love Josh. But I will say this year the reason people are on him more is that when we re-run the play, we see that other guys are open on his interceptions which are usually to tightly-covered receivers. Not all interceptions are created equally. Josh has had his fair share of bad ones this year.