1st draft of Bills draft needs

[Albany,n.y.]

I've still got a lot of work to do before the draft, but I wrote my Bills needs analysis 1st draft today. Subject to change in the next 2 weeks with trades & other FA signings occurring in the next week & 1/2.

 

Quarterback

J.P. Losman has been named the starter. With the signing of Kelly Holcomb as the veteran backup, the Bills are looking for a 3rd stringer. That 3rd stringer will be a guy with a minimum salary. I don’t see that need being addressed in the draft. Right now the team has four QBs on the roster, including street free agents Tory Woodbury and Kevin Thompson. Thompson has elevated his status with some impressive work in NFL Europe. If the Bills decide that they want to bring in an undrafted player to compete for the 3rd stringer’s job, Woodbury won’t be around much longer. Just as likely is that the team lets Thompson and Woodbury battle it out in camp and if neither impresses, a QB is plucked off the waiver wire like the team did several years ago with Travis Brown.

 

Running Back

Willis McGahee is the starter. Currently behind him on the roster are returnees Shaud Williams, Joe Burns, and Dante Brown. With veteran free agents like Garrison Hearst on the market, there isn’t an immediate need to draft a backup running back. Factor in the depth needs at other positions and the chances of a drafted RB in camp are slim. If Travis Henry isn’t already gone, he will be very shortly from now.

 

Fullback

Damon Shelton is the only fullback on the roster, although Joe Burns is behind him on the depth chart. There will be at least one rookie in camp, but chances are he’ll be an undrafted free agent. As with QB and RB, the team has more important needs and the front line player or players are entrenched in the position.

 

 

Tight End

Mark Campbell and Tim Euhus both suffered knee injuries late last season. Ryan Neufeld is a marginal talent. Unless a veteran free agent is signed, the Bills will be drafting a TE, probably fairly early in the draft.

 

Wide Receiver

Lee Evans is an emerging superstar. Eric Moulds is still a star, but every year his contract has to be renegotiated because of high salary cap numbers. Eventually that will stop. As a result, the Bills may be thinking of drafting a receiver somewhere in this draft. However, he has to be the right receiver, otherwise no receiver will be drafted this year. Josh Reed has been a disappointment and could be cut if Sam Aiken beats him out for the #3 receiver’s spot. Freddie Smith should make the roster as a punt returner and backup receiver. If a receiver is drafted it will be on day 2, not day 1. If the team doesn’t get a receiver this year, they can always get one in free agency or the 2006 draft. This is not an immediate need in this year’s draft, so it may not be addressed due to other needs.

 

Offensive Tackle

The team loves Syracuse’s Adam Terry. Even if the Henry for Shelton trade is made, he might still be the pick. If he is on the board when the Bills pick, pencil him in as the pick. If Henry is traded anywhere but Arizona, Terry is the pick, even if they have to trade up to get him. Drafting Terry gives them flexibility down the line if Mike Williams doesn’t play up to his lofty salary in 2005. If the Shelton trade is made and Terry isn’t available, the team might not draft a pure tackle but look at another player like Dylan McFarland, who can play several line positions.

The only way Trey Teague moves to left tackle is if the Shelton trade falls apart and Adam Terry is drafted before the Bills can make a move to get him. Look for Albany’s Geir Gudmundsen to get a camp invite if he goes undrafted. If they don’t get Terry, he might be the team’s 6th or 7th round pick.

 

Guard

I can’t see the team drafting a pure guard after signing Bennie Anderson. The team has starters Anderson and Chris Villarrial as well as 2004 starting LGs Ross Tucker and Lawrence Smith. Toss in Mike Gandy, Justin Bannan and even Ben Sobieski and you can see why this is one of the least likely position to be addressed in the draft. If the team drafts a guard it means he’ll go to camp as a center candidate. There is no room for another guard on the roster.

 

Center

Trey Teague is an unrestricted free agent after the 2005 season, so a center may be drafted. However, there may be no need to worry if they determine that Teague can be resigned or that Ross Tucker can be his replacement. I don’t see the team drafting a center, just like I don’t see the team drafting a guard. Jon Dorenbos is coming off a knee injury and Mike Gomez is 2nd on the depth chart at LS. If a rookie LS is brought in he’ll be a free agent, not a draft choice.

 

Defensive Tackle

Sam Adams is getting older and Pat Williams is gone. Ron Edwards can be a free agent after the season and Luvale Sape has limited ability. Even if Tim Anderson turns into the next Tim Krumrie, the team will be looking to get a DT who can start by 2006. This position could easily be addressed in the 2nd or 3rd round. If the team goes OT and CB 1st, they’ll have to draft a DT with their 1st or 2nd pick in 2006 because the cupboard will be bare after the 2005 season, plus Adams will be a free agent after 2006.

 

Defensive End

I can’t see this being addressed on day 1 because OT, CB, DT, TE and K are all priorities that need TD’s immediate attention. Once you get to rounds 5-7 anything is possible because best player available really starts to apply. Aaron Schobel is locked in as one starter. Because of more immediate concerns, the team will go with Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney again opposite Schobel. However, they could pick up a veteran free agent to compete here. This position just cannot be addressed in this years draft.

 

Linebacker

I don’t see a linebacker being taken. Once again, anything goes in rounds 5-7, but there are just too many other needs on the roster.

 

Cornerback

This could become a major area of need in a hurry. Nate Clements is an unrestricted free agent after this season, Travis McGee is a restricted free agent after 2005. The only protection that the Bills have is that they could move Troy Vincent back to corner, but that would severely weaken the safety corps. A CB or S is almost guaranteed to be a high priority unless they shock us all and announce a contract extension for Nate Clements before the draft.

 

Safety

Lawyer Malloy is set at SS, Vincent is set at FS. Backups Coy Wire and Rashad Baker are close to set. The only way a S is drafted is if they can’t get a CB and are thinking of shifting Vincent back there at some point by 2006.

 

Kicker

If you look at stats, like some of the national writers do, the team looks set with Rian Lindell. If you watch the Bills at all, you know Rian Lindell is a liability who must be replaced. If the team’s opening day kicker is Lindell, the team is in big trouble. Don’t kid yourself, team management is fully aware of the situation. Coach Mularchy has shown how little confidence he has in Lindell past 40 yards. Lindell will not be back. He’s also too expensive with a salary of $825,000 and a cap number over $1.3 million. For less than $300,000 cap hit, he can be cut after June 1st. So, what are the options? The team could shock the draft and pick Mike Nugent with its 1st pick in round 2. It’s unlikely, but if he’s the best player on the board, I could see them locking up the kicker's job for the next decade. If Owen Pochman is kicking up a storm in Europe I could see them just letting him beat out Lindell in camp. The most likely scenario is this: bring in a rookie K either drafting one in the 7th round or getting an undrafted free agent into camp. Pochman, Lindell and the rookie battle it out in camp. If Pochman is bombing in Europe by the draft, he’s a goner before camp and Lindell battles the rookie. If Pochman is lights out in Europe, Lindell may be gone before camp opens. Then it’s Pochman vs the rookie. The season’s kicker might not even be in camp, but could be a veteran who gets cut by someone else. Believe it, one way or another Lindell will not be back, they can’t afford him.

 

Punter

Bryan Moorman is the punter. Anyone brought in is camp fodder. As I said last year, this is one position that I can guarantee will not be addressed in the 7 round draft.

 

Conclusion

The Bills have major needs to address at several positions, but most of those needs are preemptive strikes against future free agent defections. They must have a new kicker by opening day 2005. Cornerback and defensive tackle have to be addressed since there are potential free agent losses after the season. Tight end and offensive tackle are also areas where the team has to look for immediate help. Since the Bills only have 6 total picks, there’s not much room to address other positions in the draft. This could be an elite team in 2005 since the only positions that need an immediate upgrade are offensive tackle, kicker and possibly tight end. This draft, for the most part is for 2006, not 2005. Once Travis Henry is traded, the draft picture will become a lot more focused.

[Mark VI]

Conclusion

    The Bills have major needs to address at several positions, but most of those needs are preemptive strikes against future free agent defections.  They must have a new kicker by opening day 2005.  Cornerback and defensive tackle have to be addressed since there are potential free agent losses after the season.  Tight end and offensive tackle are also areas where the team has to look for immediate help.  Since the Bills only have 6 total picks, there’s not much room to address other positions in the draft.  This could be an elite team in 2005 since the only positions that need an immediate upgrade are offensive tackle, kicker and possibly tight end.  This draft, for the most part is for 2006, not 2005.  Once Travis Henry is traded, the draft picture will become a lot more focused.

300693[/snapback]

 

Great job, Harv. Excellent positional analysis.

 

Seems to be some very good depth at the CB position. The Bills could easily find a good prospect in round 2 or 3. I see a couple good TE's who could be had in the 3rd- 4th round. DT is a possibility, although I see little chance of Hawthorne of Wisconson. I don't see the depth at DT. OT is basically weak, unless they have targeted a couple prospects and have an idea where they may fall.

 

A fair guess would be CB and TE early. Maybe a RB, if Hearst didn't check out physically. I was hoping for OL but it seems the quality may not be there after the early 2nd round ( before our pick), after doing lots of reading.

[Albany,n.y.]

Great job, Harv. Excellent positional analysis.

 

  Seems to be some very good depth at the CB position. The Bills could easily find a good prospect in round 2 or 3. I see a couple good TE's who could be had in the 3rd- 4th round. DT is a possibility, although I see little chance of Hawthorne of Wisconson. I don't see the depth at DT. OT is basically weak, unless they have targeted a couple prospects and have an idea where they may fall.

 

A fair guess would be CB and TE early. Maybe a RB, if Hearst didn't check out physically. I was hoping for OL but it seems the quality may not be there after the early 2nd round ( before our pick), after doing lots of reading.

300700[/snapback]

 

Thanks. What do you think of Terry & where he'll go in the draft? I think he's the player TD's targeting with the move to 44, but he might be gone by then.

[Kelly the Dog]

Thanks. What do you think of Terry & where he'll go in the draft?  I think he's the player TD's targeting with the move to 44, but he might be gone by then.

300703[/snapback]

I am not sure one can target a player at 44. I would think you can target no less than 4-5 players at #44. And even if they hope like hell Terry is available at 44 (which who knows whether that is the case or not), there is a good chance a player they thought had no chance of being there at 44 is still there. And if he is a player they like, who would obviously be higher on their list than Terry, they may easily go for the BPA, particularly if the Shelton trade is made.

 

Otherwise, that was an excellent analysis. Thanks.

[Mark VI]

Thanks. What do you think of Terry & where he'll go in the draft?  I think he's the player TD's targeting with the move to 44, but he might be gone by then.

300703[/snapback]

 

http://2005.otcdraft.com/content/profiles/...e/AdamTerry.php

 

I've seem plenty of mock drafts with Terry there at #55. I'm not convinced the Shelton deal is a sure thing.

[bill in Livonia]

Good anylsis and well written Harve. I'm looking forward to your draft Predictions. I percieve Teague at center as a weakness, I hope tucker can beat him out in camp or he is moved to tackle.