Lament of an eternal optimist....

[Bronc24]

Let me start this by saying I am a cup-half-full kinda guy. I am 47, have been a Bills' fan since I was 10 years old in an area where there are no other Bills' fans. I am on a lonely island of fandom here. I have coached high school football for almost 20 years, quite successfully, and I do have some knowledge of the game. But even I have been beaten down to the point where I was so mad last night I lost sleep. So here goes...

• I thought this would be a playoff team. I thought we could get 4 wins in the division and get to 10 wins overall. I know now that this was a pipe dream, for many of the reasons I will outline below.
  
• I thought EJ would take a positive step in the off-season. I had hoped that all the things he was saying, the QB's he was illiciting advice from and his "desire" to get better would help him take the leap. However, reality has set in and the accuracy issues a QB like Manuel can get away with at the college level have plagued him in the NFL. Time will tell if this will continue, but I am not optimistic about our current future at the QB position.
  
• Cue Kyle Orton. I was happy with the move. I was pleased with some of the results, though the offense had obvious issues scoring TD's, even in the Jets game. However he did not turn the ball over and we have moved the ball rather efficiently between the 20's (except in the 2nd half last night). But Kyle Orton is not a long term answer, nor should he be. His immobility in the pocket is a detriment and the Dolphins basically teed off on him that entire second half. However, a lingering question I have is, "is it the QB or is it scheme?" Which brings me to....
  
• Nate Hackett. I was willing to cut Hackett some slack, but even I now think he is out of his league. Here's my major issues. He has moved from his predictable run, run, pass sequence to an incompletion, short run, third and long sequence. Consistently being in third and long with a young OL and an immobile QB is a ridiculous philosophy. His play calling, especially in the red zone, baffles me. Case in point from last night (probably not in sequence as they occurred):
  

1. Third down and one. We have already successfully converted a couple of third and shorts between the tackles. Rather than pound the ball again, Hackett calls a sweep. I don't know the conversion rates of running a straight sweep on 3rd and short in the NFL, but I am guessing it is in the low teens as a percentage (unless you run a zone read or a fake dive and flip it to Manny Lawson's side). Just a terrible play call.
   
2. Red zone. We have what I believe was a run formation, which normally would put 8 or 9 in the box. Hackett calls for a slant to Mike Williams in the middle of the field. No idea who else is in the pattern, but I do know that any other (successful) team that throws in that area of the field out of a run formation throws to the flat or edges and doesn't try and force a throw into the teeth of the defense. Luckily, the pass was batted down. Otherwise I think there were three Dolphins in a line waiting to pick it off. Horrible scheme.
   
3. Running game. We abandoned this completely in the second half when we were DOWN BY 10 POINTS. Our backs ran well in the first half, when given the opportunity, but Hackett got pass happy in the second half. He absolutely panicked. Did I mention we have a young OL and an immobile QB? The Dolphins DC must have been laughing to himself all the way home last night. It was easy.
   

• These are just a few things that occurred last night and slowly led me to simmer to a boil. If I thought Hackett could go back to the drawing board or chalk it up to a great job by the Dolphins, I could live with it. But that is not the case. Truth is, I believe he is not up to this job and it's criminal that a team with this defense is already looking to next year.
  
• That does not absolve the defense or Schwartz, but tough to be too critical of a defense that is on the damn field all game. Why we blitzed the corner on 3rd and 26 is beyond me. Why we did not scheme for the back becoming the hot read in that situation is also beyond me. Same situation on the corner blitz in the second half where the Dolphins hit the crossing route for 30+. Poor scheme. But....the defense has been good enough to win us games all season. The offense has dropped the ball.
  
• Marrone. I don't know what to think here, but his lack of intestinal fortitude really bothers me. He hired Hackett, so that responsibility is on him. But he also hired Schwartz. I really cannot see him lasting beyond Black Monday, unless we go on a serious winning streak and beat two of the Patriots, Packers and Broncos. I cannot see that happening unless our offense does a 180.
  
• Whaley. I think he has done a great job, but, in retrospect, that Sammy deal is going to hurt us in the long run. However, I loved the move at the time and I think that Watkins is an enormous talent who will flourish if we ever hit on the QB. Perhaps his presence will convince a FA QB like Hoyer, who I would take in a heartbeat, to come here. I don't know if the EJ pick is on him or Nix, but if it doesn't pan out, which would not be a huge shock, the franchise has been set back X number of years yet again. I would still love to have that #1 pick in our pocket next May, especially since we will probably have a top 15 pick yet again.
  
• The refs. Those were two HORRIBLE calls last night...I mean absolutely brutal...and it seems we get them all the time. No way Brady gets that grounding call....not with someone that close. The interference call was a pivotal play and was an absolute joke. However....the game should never have come down to those two calls. There are so many ways we shoot ourselves in the foot that the refs ineptitude is magnified, in my mind anyhow, by the frustration I feel by our own team's shortcomings. Good teams overcome and make those calls irrelevant. We never do.
  

Anyhow...those are my ramblings. I love this team, will cheer for this team and will die a Bills' fan. I just hope that someday, they are relevant in January. Colour me optimistic, just not right now...

Edited November 15, 2014 by Bronc24

[eball]

Well said.

[CodeMonkey]

Let me start this by saying I am a cup-half-full kinda guy. I am 47, have been a Bills' fan since I was 10 years old in an area where there are no other Bills' fans. I am on a lonely island of fandom here. I have coached high school football for almost 20 years, quite successfully, and I do have some knowledge of the game. But even I have been beaten down to the point where I was so mad last night I lost sleep. So here goes...

• I thought this would be a playoff team. I thought we could get 4 wins in the division and get to 10 wins overall. I know now that this was a pipe dream, for many of the reasons I will outline below.
  
• I thought EJ would take a positive step in the off-season. I had hoped that all the things he was saying, the QB's he was illiciting advice from and his "desire" to get better would help him take the leap. However, reality has set in and the accuracy issues a QB like Manuel can get away with at the college level have plagued him in the NFL. Time will tell if this will continue, but I am not optimistic about our current future at the QB position.
  
• Cue Kyle Orton. I was happy with the move. I was pleased with some of the results, though the offense had obvious issues scoring TD's, even in the Jets game. However he did not turn the ball over and we have moved the ball rather efficiently between the 20's (except in the 2nd half last night). But Kyle Orton is not a long term answer, nor should he be. His immobility in the pocket is a detriment and the Dolphins basically teed off on him that entire second half. However, a lingering question I have is, "is it the QB or is it scheme?" Which brings me to....
  
• Nate Hackett. I was willing to cut Hackett some slack, but even I now think he is out of his league. Here's my major issues. He has moved from his predictable run, run, pass sequence to an incompletion, short run, third and long sequence. Consistently being in third and long with a young OL and an immobile QB is a ridiculous philosophy. His play calling, especially in the red zone, baffles me. Case in point from last night (probably not in sequence as they occurred):
  

1. Third down and one. We have already successfully converted a couple of third and shorts between the tackles. Rather than pound the ball again, Hackett calls a sweep. I don't know the conversion rates of running a straight sweep on 3rd and short in the NFL, but I am guessing it is in the low teens as a percentage (unless you run a zone read or a fake dive and flip it to Manny Lawson's side). Just a terrible play call.
    
   
2. Red zone. We have what I believe was a run formation, which normally would put 8 or 9 in the box. Hackett calls for a slant to Mike Williams in the middle of the field. No idea who else is in the pattern, but I do know that any other (successful) team that throws in that area of the field out of a run formation throws to the flat or edges and doesn't try and force a throw into the teeth of the defense. Luckily, the pass was batted down. Otherwise I think there were three Dolphins in a line waiting to pick it off. Horrible scheme.
    
   
3. Running game. We abandoned this completely in the second half when we were DOWN BY 10 POINTS. Our backs ran well in the first half, when given the opportunity, but Hackett got pass happy in the second half. He absolutely panicked. Did I mention we have a young OL and an immobile QB? The Dolphins DC must have been laughing to himself all the way home last night. It was easy.
   

• These are just a few things that occurred last night and slowly led me to simmer to a boil. If I thought Hackett could go back to the drawing board or chalk it up to a great job by the Dolphins, I could live with it. But that is not the case. Truth is, I believe he is not up to this job and it's criminal that a team with this defense is already looking to next year.
  
• That does not absolve the defense or Schwartz, but tough to be too critical of a defense that is on the damn field all game. Why we blitzed the corner on 3rd and 26 is beyond me. Why we did not scheme for the back becoming the hot read in that situation is also beyond me. Same situation on the corner blitz in the second half where the Dolphins hit the crossing route for 30+. Poor scheme. But....the defense has been good enough to win us games all season. The offense has dropped the ball.
  
• Marrone. I don't know what to think here, but his lack of intestinal fortitude really bothers me. He hired Hackett, so that responsibility is on him. But he also hired Schwartz. I really cannot see him lasting beyond Black Monday, unless we go on a serious winning streak and beat two of the Patriots, Packers and Broncos. I cannot see that happening unless our offense does a 180.
  
• Whaley. I think he has done a great job, but, in retrospect, that Sammy deal is going to hurt us in the long run. However, I loved the move at the time and I think that Watkins is an enormous talent who will flourish if we ever hit on the QB. Perhaps his presence will convince a FA QB like Hoyer, who I would take in a heartbeat, to come here. I don't know if the EJ pick is on him or Nix, but if it doesn't pan out, which would not be a huge shock, the franchise has been set back X number of years yet again. I would still love to have that #1 pick in our pocket next May, especially since we will probably have a top 15 pick yet again.
  
• The refs. Those were two HORRIBLE calls last night...I mean absolutely brutal...and it seems we get them all the time. No way Brady gets that grounding call....not with someone that close. The interference call was a pivotal play and was an absolute joke. However....the game should never have come down to those two calls. There are so many ways we shoot ourselves in the foot that the refs ineptitude is magnified, in my mind anyhow, by the frustration I feel by our own team's shortcomings. Good teams overcome and make those calls irrelevant. We never do.
  

Anyhow...those are my ramblings. I love this team, will cheer for this team and will die a Bills' fan. I just hope that someday, they are relevant in January. Colour me optimistic, just not right now.

That was very nicely put and you have a far greater understanding of the details than I do.

The only thing I disagree with is the grounding call. He was under pressure and did throw it away. If Watkins was looking at it and made a move towards the ball then no call. As it was I don't have any issue with it being called. Whether or not Tom Terrific gets called for it is irrelevant in my opinion.

 

Now the PI call on Gilmore was total BS, I agree completely.

 

But the refs didn't lose that game as you very nicely explained.

 

And lastly, even relevant in December would be a nice change.

Edited November 14, 2014 by CodeMonkey

[Bronc24]

That was very nicely put and you have a far greater understanding of the details than I do.

The only thing I disagree with is the grounding call. He was under pressure and did throw it away. If Watkins was looking at it and made a move towards the ball then no call. As it was I don't have any issue with it being called. Whether or not Tom Terrific gets called for it is irrelevant in my opinion.

 

Now the PI call on Gilmore was total BS, I agree completely.

 

But the refs didn't lose that game as you very nicely explained.

 

And lastly, even relevant in December would be a nice change.

 

I see your point and can agree to it...to a point. In my mind, it looked like Watkins was running a post-corner and Orton had to throw it off his back foot quickly, thus was not able to get enough on it. Bottom line is we recovered the fumble after the free kick and did nothing with the opportunity.

 

And yes, relevant in December would be something.

[Dante]

Trying to restore the cup to half full I will say this. For bottom feeder teams like the Bills, change comes incrementally. Lets look at the positives. Our D continues to improve. We have a very good D coordinator. What I also see as a positive is that the negatives of the defense are fairly obvious. Thinness at LB could be solved next season with Alonso back. We need to get another good cb.

The injuries to Spiller and Jackson has let Brown get some touches and I like what he brings to the table. Our receivers are very young and will only get better and Hogan is a surprise bonus.

For the empty part of the cup, I can't stand our play calling and we just don't have a qb. If we can some how some way find a decent qb this is a playoff team.

Edited November 14, 2014 by Dante

[Bronc24]

Trying to restore the cup to half full I will say this. For bottom feeder teams like the Bills, change comes incrementally. Lets look at the positives. Our D continues to improve. We have a very good D coordinator. What I also see as a positive is that the negatives of the defense are fairly obvious. Thinness at LB could be solved next season with Alonso back. We need to get another good cb.

The injuries to Spiller and Jackson has let Brown get some touches and I like what he brings to the table. Our receivers are very young and will only get better and Hogan is a surprise bonus.

For the empty part of the cup, I can't stand our play calling and we just don't have a qb. If we can some how some way find a decent qb this is a playoff team.

 

I agree. I was telling a friend this morning, a Pack fan, that at least in the Fitzy days, I expected an implosion and the losses were almost comical to me. Now, I know this team is much better, but we have lost two winnable games in a row to effectively kill our playoff chances. Even after the KC debacle, I thought, "OK, right the ship vs. Miami and let's see what happens." The offense has been taking on water and is now causing the ship to flounder...quickly.

[rpmfla]

I tuned in a little late to the game and the first thing I heard was "3rd and 24 for the Dolphins". The first play I saw was them getting 27 yards for the first down. I just knew that was a bad omen so I totally expected them to lose...but I really did not expect the total lack of success on offense. That was the worst I have seen this group play on offense. They looked very much like a team whose players have not ever even met each other.

[jr1]

at least Marrone didn't hire Scott Shafer

[rpmfla]

I mistakenly thought we'd have one of the best receiving groups in the league...and that was even without expecting Watkins to dominate and 7/11 to develop as he has. I guess I'm guilty of over-optimism at the start of every season, but I thought I was being more realistic this year. Now it looks like 8-8 is the best they can do.

[CodeMonkey]

I mistakenly thought we'd have one of the best receiving groups in the league...and that was even without expecting Watkins to dominate and 7/11 to develop as he has. I guess I'm guilty of over-optimism at the start of every season, but I thought I was being more realistic this year. Now it looks like 8-8 is the best they can do.

Glancing at the remaining schedule, it looks more like 7-9 to me now.

Beat the Jests and Raiders, lose the rest. And frankly, the Jests isn't a sure thing after these last 2 games.

Edited November 14, 2014 by CodeMonkey

[Bronc24]

Glancing at the remaining schedule, it looks more like 7-9 to me now.

Beat the Jests and Raiders, lose the rest. And frankly, the Jests isn't a sure thing after these last 2 games.

 

I have us at 7 - 9 as well. I figured it out right after my wife rolled over last night because it was apparent I was more interested in rehashing the Bills's season than I was in her.