Virtual reality and NFL Quarterbacking

[Orton's Arm]

Suppose you were to build a virtual reality simulation which exactly replicated the decisions a QB has to make. You'd put on the VR goggles; and you'd see the defense lined up. The play clock would be ticking, so you'd have to quickly make an accurate pre-snap read. Then the ball is snapped! In the space of about 3.5 seconds, you'd have to take the (virtual) snap, drop back, set, sense and adjust to pocket pressure, modify your pre-snap understanding of the defense based on what it's actually doing, go through your first 2 - 4 reads, maybe look off a DB, and throw the ball. Oh, and the throw has to be accurate--ideally hitting your target in perfect stride. That's a lot of information to process in such a short amount of time.

 

Suppose you were to take 10,000 people chosen at random, and allow them to play this game to their hearts' content. They'd get better with practice and with coaching. But as with any other video game, everyone who played this game would eventually reach a ceiling. A guy like Aaron Rodgers would have a very high ceiling--much higher than almost anyone chosen at random from off the street. A guy like Losman or Rob Johnson would have a much lower ceiling than Rodgers'--much closer to what you'd expect from an average member of the population.

 

A person's ceiling in a simulation like the above is determined by the physical characteristics of his brain. Nerve Conduction Velocity (NCV) refers to the speed at which signals travel through your brain. It's been said that after the snap, Bledsoe took over a full second longer than Brady to make the same reads. It's likely that Brady has significantly faster nerve conduction velocity than Bledsoe.

 

A second important characteristic is myelination levels. In electronics, insulation is used to prevent the signal from one wire from interfering with the signal from another wire. The more insulation, the less "cross talk," and the better the electronic device will likely work. Human brains are the same way: the higher your brain's myelination level, the better your brain will work. Aaron Rodgers likely has a very high myelination level, because he's able to keep track of many different information streams at once without getting the information scrambled.

 

One of the most important things you can look for in a college QB is evidence of fast nerve conduction velocity and a high myelination level. If a college QB plays in a complex offense, if he consistently demonstrates the ability to rapidly and accurately process large amounts of information; odds are he has the mental upside you need. If on the other hand he plays in a very simple offense, and if he struggles with pocket awareness even within that simple offense, then it's very unlikely his brain's nerve conduction velocity or myelination levels are remotely comparable to Aaron Rodgers'.

[Beerball]

Why is 3.5 always the answer?

[Orton's Arm]

Why is 3.5 always the answer?

 

I will give you a multi-part answer.

1. My post pertains to the NFL draft.

2. The NFL draft is sometimes described as a "crap-shoot."

3. The game of craps involves rolling six sided dice.

3.5 When rolling a single six sided die, the expected value is 3.5.

 

Hey, don't blame me for any of this. You're the one who asked the question!

Edited April 27, 2013 by Edwards' Arm

[Hapless Bills Fan]

A person's ceiling in a simulation like the above is determined by the physical characteristics of his brain. Nerve Conduction Velocity (NCV) refers to the speed at which signals travel through your brain. It's been said that after the snap, Bledsoe took over a full second longer than Brady to make the same reads. It's likely that Brady has significantly faster nerve conduction velocity than Bledsoe.

 

A second important characteristic is myelination levels. In electronics, insulation is used to prevent the signal from one wire from interfering with the signal from another wire. The more insulation, the less "cross talk," and the better the electronic device will likely work. Human brains are the same way: the higher your brain's myelination level, the better your brain will work. Aaron Rodgers likely has a very high myelination level, because he's able to keep track of many different information streams at once without getting the information scrambled.

 

One of the most important things you can look for in a college QB is evidence of fast nerve conduction velocity and a high myelination level. If a college QB plays in a complex offense, if he consistently demonstrates the ability to rapidly and accurately process large amounts of information; odds are he has the mental upside you need. If on the other hand he plays in a very simple offense, and if he struggles with pocket awareness even within that simple offense, then it's very unlikely his brain's nerve conduction velocity or myelination levels are remotely comparable to Aaron Rodgers'.

 

This all sounds so very scientific, but so far as I know, there is actually no way to measure nerve conduction velocity and myelination levels in a living human's brain, nor studies actually linking nerve conduction velocity/myelination levels to measurable performance characteristics such as ability to process and interpret information. If you believe there are such studies, kindly provide links. To my knowledge, there is no reason to believe that gifted thinkers/athletes have fundamentally different neurobiology.

 

One can measure ability to process and interpret information, of course, as well as time required to translate information to physical action. One can measure physical actions.

 

How different mental and physical measurables are driven by differences in underlying physiology, and to what extent those differences are driven by differences in practice/conditioning/mental attitude vs. genetics, is an area of active research.

[UpperDeck]

I will give you a multi-part answer.

1. My post pertains to the NFL draft.

2. The NFL draft is sometimes described as a "crap-shoot."

3. The game of craps involves rolling six sided dice.

3.5 When rolling a single six sided die, the expected value is 3.5.

 

Hey, don't blame me for any of this. You're the one who asked the question!

Hmmm, looks like I'll never get those 3.5 seconds back.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Interesting read, EA.

 

It made me think of:

 

1) Possible consumer video game

 

2) Possible QB testing technology

 

3) Possible QB training technology

 

Like some crazy, extremely complex Wii game.

[Corp000085]

Hmmm, looks like I'll never get those 3.5 seconds back.

 

That's what she said.

[Orton's Arm]

This all sounds so very scientific, but so far as I know, there is actually no way to measure nerve conduction velocity and myelination levels in a living human's brain, nor studies actually linking nerve conduction velocity/myelination levels to measurable performance characteristics such as ability to process and interpret information. If you believe there are such studies, kindly provide links. To my knowledge, there is no reason to believe that gifted thinkers/athletes have fundamentally different neurobiology.

 

One can measure ability to process and interpret information, of course, as well as time required to translate information to physical action. One can measure physical actions.

 

How different mental and physical measurables are driven by differences in underlying physiology, and to what extent those differences are driven by differences in practice/conditioning/mental attitude vs. genetics, is an area of active research.

 

Good post. You are correct to state that there is no way to directly measure the myelination level of a living human's brain. (Maybe if a neurosurgeon was doing surgery anyway, he could help himself to just a little extra healthy tissue. "The patient didn't seem like he was using his brain much anyway.")

 

However, nerve conduction velocity can be directly measured. Note that low myelination levels are given as one possible cause for abnormal/disappointing results for a nerve conduction velocity test.

 

Nerve conduction velocity can also be indirectly measured, through the use of reaction time tests.

 

**********************

Ian Deary, University of Edinburgh, and Geoff Der, MRC Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Glasgow, report on a study from the MRC Unit that measured both the IQs and the reaction times of middle-aged subjects. Both tests of mental ability were associated with life span, but reaction time was the stronger indicator. . . .

 

Reaction time is moderately related to IQ, but is a simpler assessment of the brain's information-processing ability - one that doesn't bear so much on other, possibly confounding factors like knowledge, education, or background.

***********************

 

Tests used to measure reaction time are generally along the lines of this one. Any reasonably competent front office should be giving tests like that to every QB prospect they're considering drafting.

Edited April 28, 2013 by Edwards' Arm