Prickly Pete Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I agree with your statement. And I'm sure they're going to try to find one. I just don't know if any of the guys this year are significantly better than Fitz to the point where you expend the #8 pick on them. And if OBD feels that they're all a shot in the dark, then take one in the second round. Out of the whole bunch of them, I'm becoming more and more intrigued with Nassib, and with Wilson. I'm not saying either one is franchise quality or even starter quality, just that they are moving to the top of my personal list. They can't wheel out Fitz again. It would kill the morale of the team. They all know he sucks. There is nothing to lose, I say it over and over, complete drafts have been wasted, guys whole careers go by and the team treads water without a QB. Tkae the best they can get every year until they find one good enough to develop. They can pass on the next Torrell Troup or Aaron Williams for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I don't think they all suck, just that none of them have that "can't miss" quality. They all appear to be second tier talents. The question to ask yourself if, if they'd come out last year, which ones would have been drafted in the first round? If none of this year's crop would have been a top pick last year, then why would you spend a top pick on them this year when there are equal or greater needs on the Bills for which there are some really good players? The Bills will definitely pick one of these guys though I don't think they'll use the #8 on any of them. There seems to be a case of "magical thinking" with some fans that if their team uses a high first round pick to take a guy who, by all objective standards, is a second tier talent, abra kadabra, he turns into a franchise QB simply by being taken high in the draft. One reason the Bills are in the unfortunate position of having to take a QB in a fallow year is that Buddy Nix passed on Collin Kaepernick AND Russell Wilson last year, both of whom were better than any of this year's candidates. I would love for one of the beat reporters to corner him on that screw up. The article you'd mentioned had the following to say about Nassib: "I don't think he's talented enough to be a star, but in the right system, he can be a quality NFL starter." A critic could point out--correctly--that the Bills don't need "a quality NFL starter" at QB. They need a star. One possibility would be to take Nassib anyway, and hope he does turn into a star. Even if there's only a 20% chance of that happening, that 20% chance might be worth the 8th overall pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The article you'd mentioned had the following to say about Nassib: "I don't think he's talented enough to be a star, but in the right system, he can be a quality NFL starter." A critic could point out--correctly--that the Bills don't need "a quality NFL starter" at QB. They need a star. One possibility would be to take Nassib anyway, and hope he does turn into a star. Even if there's only a 20% chance of that happening, that 20% chance might be worth the 8th overall pick. Likely only an 8% chance .....but if you don't try you have a 0% chance. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155235-drafting-success-qb/page__st__20 (post #29 in this thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Likely only an 8% chance .....but if you don't try you have a 0% chance. http://forums.twobil...qb/page__st__20 (post #29 in this thread) Very good thread! I appreciate the link, and all the effort you've put into analyzing QBs. Not to quibble, but if Aaron Rodgers doesn't qualify as a "star" under your system, then you need a new system. Especially because Pro Bowl appearances don't necessarily mean a whole lot, as Donte Whitner has recently shown us. Another way of evaluating QBs would be to use yards per attempt. Any QB with a career yards per attempt in the 7.2 - 7.3 range would be borderline franchise, and any QB at 7.4 or above would be franchise. If you did it that way, Aaron Rodgers would be counted as a franchise QB (as he should be). If you've undercounted the number of star QBs in the league--as I believe you have--then Nassib's statistical odds of becoming a franchise QB (if he's selected in the first round) would be greater than 8%. But even if the true odds are 15 or 20%, I agree the odds are still against us. The best way to beat those odds is to do a better job of QB evaluation than a typical NFL team does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haplo848 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Any chance you could reorganize the "career" stats into "career/year"? I feel like that's incredibly misleading, as I would guess they haven't been starting for the same length of time, have the same number of games played, etc. Other than that, though, I feel that your assessment of the QBs is INCREDIBLE. The passer rating means nothing to me, as it goes past the nonsense passer rating that the NFL uses, but other than that, it's definitely worthwhile. The stats from the webpage, though...not so much Sure, completion percentage at each depth is important, but it doesn't tell you too much unless you know how often they threw in that range as well. If the short passes and screens are all a QB throws, and so they're so used to throwing those throws that they complete more than usual, that tells you something about the QB. Likewise, if that's all they throw, and so the safeties are drawn up into the box and never over the top of receivers, the few throws made down field would be easier to complete because of less coverage. Most yardage in the redzone is a useless stat as well. What if the coach likes to run it down at the endzone? What if you get down to the 1 yard line and then can't punch it in? If I get down to the 1 yard line every single drive, then stall out, I'm still going to have good redzone yardage. Finally, average distance of throw also means nothing, it's the average distance of COMPLETION that matters. Anyways, really good post, I'm just ranting about misleading statistics. I'm told not to take my work home with me, but considering I'm still in the office writing up astrophysics proposals past midnight on a Saturday, I guess I have an excuse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 If you've undercounted the number of star QBs in the league--as I believe you have--then Nassib's statistical odds of becoming a franchise QB (if he's selected in the first round) would be greater than 8%. But even if the true odds are 15 or 20%, I agree the odds are still against us. The best way to beat those odds is to do a better job of QB evaluation than a typical NFL team does. That's an excellent point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 (edited) Very good thread! I appreciate the link, and all the effort you've put into analyzing QBs. Not to quibble, but if Aaron Rodgers doesn't qualify as a "star" under your system, then you need a new system. Especially because Pro Bowl appearances don't necessarily mean a whole lot, as Donte Whitner has recently shown us. Another way of evaluating QBs would be to use yards per attempt. Any QB with a career yards per attempt in the 7.2 - 7.3 range would be borderline franchise, and any QB at 7.4 or above would be franchise. If you did it that way, Aaron Rodgers would be counted as a franchise QB (as he should be). If you've undercounted the number of star QBs in the league--as I believe you have--then Nassib's statistical odds of becoming a franchise QB (if he's selected in the first round) would be greater than 8%. But even if the true odds are 15 or 20%, I agree the odds are still against us. The best way to beat those odds is to do a better job of QB evaluation than a typical NFL team does. We should really be discussing this in the other thread but.... Aaron Rodgers was a unique situation in regards to the criteria used as he was on the cusp of player drafting year(2005) but he spent 3 full years on the bench. Effectively he only had 5 years to qualify whereas nearly all other players had a full 8+ years to "qualify". Y/A may well be a better system for analyzing "star" value in QBs....but since I am doing analysis on all positions, I needed a standard system which would apply across the board. Furthermore, I was not endeavouring to obtain the number of star QBs in the league today.....I was obtaining the number of Star(&Starter calibre) QBs(and all players) for the teams who drafted them between the years of 1986 - 2005. The 4+ pro-bowl system is not perfect, but if a star player cannot make the pro-bowl 4 times....then they are not likely the star calibre player that I was interested in tracking. Edited February 24, 2013 by Dibs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 (edited) The best way to beat those odds is to do a better job of QB evaluation than a typical NFL team does. That's an excellent point. It sounds good.....and it would be nice to believe that talent evaluators can have a more precise grasp than the general standard.....and likely to a small percent some do. I have toyed with the concept of doing a team by team analysis of over-all draft success but decided that this would be a futile exercise. Scouts, coaches, GMs and even owners all factor into the process.....and with those changing on a regular basis, there would be no way to pinpoint if there was actually a genius hiding amongst the mediocrity. The reality is that the best prospects are generally recognized. This has been shown through each position I have analysed to date(QB, LB, WR, OL). The QB postition is the greatest example of how the scouting process works effectively. In the 20 years of drafts, there was only one Star QB(Brady) who was not drafted inside the top 34 picks. This shows that the talent evaluators do a fantastic job when it comes to evaluating QBs. Other positions have differing outcomes. The WR position has the expected drop-off in success rate after the 1st round....but the ability to predict a 2nd round talent over a 3rd round talent seems non-existent as both those rounds had the same Star & Starter success rates for WRs. LBs & OLmen had a distinctive drop-off between the 2nd & 3rd rounds....which implies that talent evaluators could still distinguish Star & Starter potential for those positions in that range. This sort of analysis could be extremely useful for a team drafting. Take the Bills in this draft as example. We want a QB, WR & LB. As one desires a Star QB, there is no point taking a QB who is not graded as at least a high 2nd round pick as the odds of him becoming a Star are miniscule. You take your LB in the 2nd round as statistics have now shown that the talent evaluation in regards to LBs can clearly distinguish between the players at that level.....and you select a 3rd round graded WR(in the 3rd) feeling confident that even though your analysis has shown other WRs to have more potential, statistics have shown that the evaluators are not very pricise in grading WRs of the 2nd/3rd round level. Edited February 24, 2013 by Dibs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Stats have their place but I still rely ultimately on my eyes. And after watching Geno Smith quite a bit, my opinion (and that's all it is) is that he's emotionally erratic, more in the Vince Young mold, with enough talent to do very well in college, but with enough flaws that he will have a difficult time in the pros. Here's an article from the LA Times in which Greg Cosell gives his opinions of the top QB prospects: http://www.latimes.c...0,6035113.story Yikes. That was depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shibuya Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 (edited) Any chance you could reorganize the "career" stats into "career/year"? I feel like that's incredibly misleading, as I would guess they haven't been starting for the same length of time, have the same number of games played, etc. Other than that, though, I feel that your assessment of the QBs is INCREDIBLE. The passer rating means nothing to me, as it goes past the nonsense passer rating that the NFL uses, but other than that, it's definitely worthwhile. The stats from the webpage, though...not so much Sure, completion percentage at each depth is important, but it doesn't tell you too much unless you know how often they threw in that range as well. If the short passes and screens are all a QB throws, and so they're so used to throwing those throws that they complete more than usual, that tells you something about the QB. Likewise, if that's all they throw, and so the safeties are drawn up into the box and never over the top of receivers, the few throws made down field would be easier to complete because of less coverage. Most yardage in the redzone is a useless stat as well. What if the coach likes to run it down at the endzone? What if you get down to the 1 yard line and then can't punch it in? If I get down to the 1 yard line every single drive, then stall out, I'm still going to have good redzone yardage. Finally, average distance of throw also means nothing, it's the average distance of COMPLETION that matters. Anyways, really good post, I'm just ranting about misleading statistics. I'm told not to take my work home with me, but considering I'm still in the office writing up astrophysics proposals past midnight on a Saturday, I guess I have an excuse... Thanks.. Had some time to kill threw this together. I tried to weight the career stats by adding the pass attempts which is definitely much higher for 4 year starters. I think the best way for me to do this is find to calculate INt's/pass attempts career and TD's/attempts career Adding the following. Give me some time and I will edit my original post Yards / attempt career EJ Manuel = 8.6 Tyler Wilson = 8.2 Geno Smith = 8.0 Matt Bakley = 7.9 Zac Dysert = 7.2 Ryan Nassib = 7.0 Mike Glennon = 6.9 Pass Attempts / TD's career Matt Barkely 1562/116 = 13.47 Geno Smith 1465/98 = 14.94 Mike Glennon 1069/63 = 16.96 Tyler Wilson 948/52 = 18.23 Ryan Nassib 1312/70 = 18.74 EJ Manuel 897/47 = 19.08 Zac Dysert 1672/73 = 22.9 Pass Attempts / INT's career Geno Smith 1465/21 = 69.76 Ryan Nassib 1312/28 = 46.85 Tyler Wilson 948/26 = 36.46 Mike Glennon 1069/31 = 34.48 Zac Dysert 1672/51 = 32.78 Matt Bakley 1562/48 = 32.54 EJ Manuel 897/28 = 32.03 Edited February 24, 2013 by shibuya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shibuya Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 (edited) Landry Jones added but without 2nd round stats . Completion % 2012 Geno Smith - 71.1% EJ Manuel - 68.0% Landry Jones - 66.1% Matt Barkley - 63.6% Zac Dysert - 62.6% Ryan Nassib - 62.4% Tyler Wilson - 62.1% Mike Glennon - 58.8% Rating 2012 Geno Smith - 163.9 Matt Barkley - 157.6 EJ Manuel - 156 Landry Jones - 144.6 Tyler Wilson - 143.8 Ryan Nassib - 143.3 Zac Dysert - 136.1 Mike Glennon - 130.7 TD's 2012 Geno Smith - 42 Matt Barkley - 36 Mike Glennon - 31 Landry Jones - 30 Ryan Nassib - 26 Zac Dysert - 25 EJ Manuel - 23 Tyler Wilson - 21 total passing yards 2012 Landry Jones - 4267 Geno Smith - 4205 Mike Glennon - 4031 Ryan Nassib - 3749 Zac Dysert - 3483 EJ Manuel - 3392 Tyler Wilson - 3387 Matt Barkley - 3273 Interceptions 2012 Geno Smith - 6 Ryan Nassib - 10 EJ Manuel - 10 Landry Jones = 11 Zac Dysert - 12 Tyler Wilson - 13 Matt Barkley - 15 Mike Glennon - 17 tie = 5.5 pts each 2012 Rankings Geno Smith - 39 Landry Jones - 29 EJ Manuel - 24.5 Ryan Nassib - 21.5 Matt Barkley - 21 Zac Dysert - 15 Mike Glennon -15 Tyler Wilson - 12 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Now lets apply Career totals for the above categories Completion % career Geno Smith - 67.4% EJ Manuel - 66.9% Matt Barkley - 64.1% Zac Dysert - 63.8% Landry Jones - 63.6% Tyler Wilson - 62.6% Mike Glennon - 60.4% Ryan Nassib - 60.3% Rating career Geno Smith - 153.5 EJ Manuel - 150.4 Matt Barkley - 148.7 Tyler Wilson - 144 Landry Jones 141.5 Ryan Nassib - 132.5 Zac Dysert - 132.4 Mike Glennon - 132.3 total passing yards career Landry Jones - 16646 Matt Barkley - 12327 Zac Dysert - 12013 Geno Smith - 11662 Ryan Nassib - 9190 Tyler Wilson - 7765 EJ Manuel - 7741 Mike Glennon - 7411 Yards / attempt career EJ Manuel = 8.6 Tyler Wilson = 8.2 Geno Smith = 8.0 Matt Bakley = 7.9 Landry Jones = 7.6 Zac Dysert = 7.2 Ryan Nassib = 7.0 Mike Glennon = 6.9 Pass Attempts / TD's career Matt Barkely 1562/116 = 13.47 Geno Smith 1465/98 = 14.94 Mike Glennon 1069/63 = 16.96 Landry Jones 2183/123 = 17.74 Tyler Wilson 948/52 = 18.23 Ryan Nassib 1312/70 = 18.74 EJ Manuel 897/47 = 19.08 Zac Dysert 1672/73 = 22.9 Pass Attempts / INT's career Geno Smith 1465/21 = 69.76 Ryan Nassib 1312/28 = 46.85 Landry Jones 218352 = 41,98 Tyler Wilson 948/26 = 36.46 Mike Glennon 1069/31 = 34.48 Zac Dysert 1672/51 = 32.78 Matt Bakley 1562/48 = 32.54 EJ Manuel 897/28 = 32.03 Career pass attempts (to help put in the career TD and INT's, should factor be weighted to account for TD's and INT's, but I have not weighted these stats) Landry Jones 2183 Zac Dysert - 1672 Matt Barkley - 1562 Geno Smith - 1465 Ryan Nassib - 1312 Mike Glennon - 1069 Tyler Wilson - 948 EJ Manuel - 897 career ranking Geno Smith - 47 Matt Barkley - 40 Landry Jones - 39 Tyler Wilson - 29 EJ Manuel - 28 Zac Dysert - 27 Ryan Nassib - 24 Mike Glennon - 18 without 2nd round stats for Landry Jones 2012 Rankings Geno Smith - 39 Landry Jones - 29 EJ Manuel - 24.5 Ryan Nassib - 21.5 Matt Barkley - 21 Zac Dysert - 15 Mike Glennon -15 Tyler Wilson - 12 career ranking Geno Smith - 47 Matt Barkley - 40 Landry Jones - 39 Tyler Wilson - 29 EJ Manuel - 28 Zac Dysert - 27 Ryan Nassib - 24 Mike Glennon - 18 Summarizing the summary Geno Smith - 16 Landry Jones- 13 Matt Barkley - 11 EJ Manuel - 10 Ryan Nassib - 7 Zac Dysert - 6 Tyler Wilson - 6 Mike Glennon - 3 Edited February 24, 2013 by shibuya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snorom Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Awesome job dude. Thanks for adding Landry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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