Cereal Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 So with a little rounding 52% of week one winners make the playoffs and 23% of week one losers make the playoffs. That is only 75%. Maybe they are talking about some weak teams not really having a chance once they get there but weren't the Packers a #6 seed last year? There goes that theory. The article doesn't even discuss teams missing the playoffs so you seem to be barking up the wrong tree. Can't believe I'm entertaining this, but I can't help myself from a little bit of good technical writing. Out of the 16 winners from Week 1, 52.3% of them will make the playoffs. 52.3% of 16 is 8.4 TEAMS. Out of the 16 losers from Week 1, 22.7% of them will make the playoffs. 22.7% of 16 is 3.6 TEAMS. Thus a total of 8.4 + 3.6 = 12 TEAMS will advance to the postseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 You do realize that a few years back we started 5-1 and did not make the playoffs right? Which part of 47.7% do you not understand ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 The Bills can do really well this year and still miss the playoffs. There are two other great teams in the same division and a 3rd that should be at least tough. It will take at least 10 wins to get in, maybe 11. Is this team an 11 win team? Probably not. I see 9 this year. But...the Colts are likely out, AND we could hope for the Steelers to miss the playoffs. Hey--they could be too old on D, Polamalu might get injured, and their running game may never take off. That would leave three spots in the AFC East....if my own math is serving me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattsox Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 (edited) You do realize that a few years back we started 5-1 and did not make the playoffs right? Yep. We re-signed Jauron Too. Remember that? When we beat the Patriots and look good doing it, that means we are on to something. Gotta put a season together. Complete season. Otherwise hype is hype. Edited September 14, 2011 by mattsox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Please don't post when you have no idea what you are talking about. You know nothing about math or reading comprehension. Nice slam dude. Geez I was just pointing out the mistake. Don't shoot the messenger. Even the vaunted NY Times makes mistakes but there seems to be no shortage of people here to come up with complex calculus to prove the NY Times correct. They forget the theory of Occum's shaver which basically says the most simple explanation is the best. The simple explanation uses the uses the transitive property which is third grade math, not calculus which is either 12th grade or maybe college. The transitive property says that if A=B then B=A. Simple right? Well then if 52% of week one winners make the playoffs then 52% of playoff teams won in week one. When you add the 23% of week one losers you get only 75% playoff teams which is basically impossible. It HAS to add up to 100 because it is in percentages. I suppose 25% of teams could tie in week one but from memory that does not sound right at all. The more complex solution offered in this thread makes no sense because of Occum's shaver. I don't know why so many people love the NY Times so much that they don't even think they can make a mistake, but I guess those same people really like the emperor's new close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfreak Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 So found this from the NY Times from last year It’s true that since the N.F.L. realigned the divisions in 2002, 52.3 percent of 1-0 teams made the playoffs compared with just 22.7 percent of teams that dropped their first game So there you go..buy them playoff tickets now History shows that you cannot apply any of these type of odds to the Buffalo Bills. A few years ago we started 4-0 and didn't come close to the playoffs, but in 1998 we started 0-3 and made the playoffs. These stats are just the result of someone being bored and having way too much time on their hands. It is not just us either, two years ago the Broncos started 6-0 and only ended up 8-8 and out of the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ETD66SS Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Andrew Luck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrhody Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 I dont think that stat really says anything.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowery4 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Nice slam dude. Geez I was just pointing out the mistake. Don't shoot the messenger. Even the vaunted NY Times makes mistakes but there seems to be no shortage of people here to come up with complex calculus to prove the NY Times correct. They forget the theory of Occum's shaver which basically says the most simple explanation is the best. The simple explanation uses the uses the transitive property which is third grade math, not calculus which is either 12th grade or maybe college. The transitive property says that if A=B then B=A. Simple right? Well then if 52% of week one winners make the playoffs then 52% of playoff teams won in week one. When you add the 23% of week one losers you get only 75% playoff teams which is basically impossible. It HAS to add up to 100 because it is in percentages. I suppose 25% of teams could tie in week one but from memory that does not sound right at all. The more complex solution offered in this thread makes no sense because of Occum's shaver. I don't know why so many people love the NY Times so much that they don't even think they can make a mistake, but I guess those same people really like the emperor's new close. Some things look easier than they really are, this is one of those things. I love the emperor's close much better than his open. and what this really says is if you win the first game your chances are about 50/50ish, which I like better than 25/75ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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