bartshan-83 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 I'm stealing these numbers from a ND board I read sometimes. I always think of college football as high scoring and watching the USC, OU, Orego, UT, etc offenses of the past several years make seeing scores of 45-60 pretty routine. It's easy to forget that defense still rules football...even college football. ***** When holding an opponent to <20 points, since 1986, ND is 112-8-2 overall, and 24-2-2 against ranked opponents. Weis: 19-1 Willingham: 14-1 Davie: 20-3 Holtz: 57-3-2 That's a 0.926 winning percentage. In order to acheive that same winning percentage over the same period of time, ND had to score at least 34 points per game (100-8-0, 19-2 against ranked opponents). ***** Ara Parseghian was 88-1-3 when holding opponents to less than 20 points. ***** Every BCS champion since the BCS was created was top 10 in either total defense or scoring defense. Since 2004, only 2 teams have made the BCS Championship Game who were not top 10 in total defense or scoring defense (USC 2005, OU 2008). They made up for it by scoring 50 ppg during the season. They also lost. No ND National Championship team has allowed more than 13 ppg (1988). ***** I wonder if there is as strong a correlation with other teams. The only other team mentioned in that thread was Alabama. Using the same 1986-present timeframe: Alabama is 162-21-1 over the same time period in games where they hold their opponents under 20 points. That's a pretty high winning percentage (.883), but not as high as ND's (.926) in a 25-year stretch which is arguably the worst stretch in ND's history. Just interesting I thought. 20 points doesn't seem like such a lower number to equate with such a high winning percentage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Just interesting I thought. 20 points doesn't seem like such a lower number to equate with such a high winning percentage. Cool analysis -- but now I'm even more depressed about the Irish! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 (edited) Wow, you weren't kidding Bart. I took a look at FSU over the last 5 years (the years of suck), and the last 10, which takes us back to the championship game loss to OU. In the last 10 years, FSU is 86-44 overall. When holding an opponent to less than 20, our record is 56-6 over that same time span. Even mroe striking is the "years of suck" analysis. Since 2005, FSU was a sad 38-27, but a remarkable 20-2 when holding an opponent to less than 20 points. Ridiculous. The trend is continuing this season so far, as we're 4-1, and 4-0 in games of less than 20. Edited October 8, 2010 by Ramius Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartshan-83 Posted October 8, 2010 Author Share Posted October 8, 2010 Wow, you weren't kidding Bart. I took a look at FSU over the last 5 years (the years of suck), and the last 10, which takes us back to the championship game loss to OU. In the last 10 years, FSU is 86-44 overall. When holding an opponent to less than 20, our record is 56-6 over that same time span. Even mroe striking is the "years of suck" analysis. Since 2005, FSU was a sad 38-27, but a remarkable 20-2 when holding an opponent to less than 20 points. Ridiculous. The trend is continuing this season so far, as we're 4-1, and 4-0 in games of less than 20. It's weird right? Seems too powerful a correlation. ND is following suit as well...2-3, 2-0 when <20. Looking at ND a little further, from 2002-present, they are 58-46. 35-2 when holding under 20. I picked one other team that I thought had been "average" over the same span...Michigan St. Actually, they define "average." From 2002-present they are 53-51. 37-5 when holding under 20. I mean a team that is a mere 2 games over .500 for almost a decade wins practically 90% if they can just hold their opponent to less than 2 TDs and 2 FGs. WOW. All I can think of is that we are undervaluing the ease of preventing your opponent from scoring 20 points. To me, that doesn't seem like such a daunting goal (and this is coming from an ND guy who watched the excuse of a D Weis trotted out there for 5 years). But, using those time periods from above, both teams played 104 games and MSU accomplished the feat 42 times (40%) and ND accomplished it 37 times (36%). So it's not like it's super rare and can't be accomplished. But when it is, WOW...almost guaranteed success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cynical Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 I'm stealing these numbers from a ND board I read sometimes. I always think of college football as high scoring and watching the USC, OU, Orego, UT, etc offenses of the past several years make seeing scores of 45-60 pretty routine. It's easy to forget that defense still rules football...even college football. ***** When holding an opponent to <20 points, since 1986, ND is 112-8-2 overall, and 24-2-2 against ranked opponents. Weis: 19-1 Willingham: 14-1 Davie: 20-3 Holtz: 57-3-2 That's a 0.926 winning percentage. In order to acheive that same winning percentage over the same period of time, ND had to score at least 34 points per game (100-8-0, 19-2 against ranked opponents). ***** Ara Parseghian was 88-1-3 when holding opponents to less than 20 points. ***** Every BCS champion since the BCS was created was top 10 in either total defense or scoring defense. Since 2004, only 2 teams have made the BCS Championship Game who were not top 10 in total defense or scoring defense (USC 2005, OU 2008). They made up for it by scoring 50 ppg during the season. They also lost. No ND National Championship team has allowed more than 13 ppg (1988). ***** I wonder if there is as strong a correlation with other teams. The only other team mentioned in that thread was Alabama. Using the same 1986-present timeframe: Alabama is 162-21-1 over the same time period in games where they hold their opponents under 20 points. That's a pretty high winning percentage (.883), but not as high as ND's (.926) in a 25-year stretch which is arguably the worst stretch in ND's history. Just interesting I thought. 20 points doesn't seem like such a lower number to equate with such a high winning percentage. I call hogwash on your entire argument. All I keep hearing on the main board is how the NFL is a passing league, and the spread option will revolutionize the game if only some HC will have the balls to implement it. Funny how the more things change, the more they stay the same. Play stifling D, win games. Who would have thunk it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartshan-83 Posted October 9, 2010 Author Share Posted October 9, 2010 I call hogwash on your entire argument. All I keep hearing on the main board is how the NFL is a passing league, and the spread option will revolutionize the game if only some HC will have the balls to implement it. Funny how the more things change, the more they stay the same. Play stifling D, win games. Who would have thunk it. What exactly are you calling hogwash on? I'm not making any argument. I just thought it was pretty incredible that 20 points allowed was such a powerful win predictor. You are absolutely right...defense is king. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted October 10, 2010 Share Posted October 10, 2010 What exactly are you calling hogwash on? I'm not making any argument. I just thought it was pretty incredible that 20 points allowed was such a powerful win predictor. You are absolutely right...defense is king. I think he was being sarcastic. The NFL has become a passing league, and you need a passing game to win, but nothing beats a great defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartshan-83 Posted October 11, 2010 Author Share Posted October 11, 2010 (edited) I think he was being sarcastic. The NFL has become a passing league, and you need a passing game to win, but nothing beats a great defense. After re-reading it...WOW...did I whiff on that! I'm talking Ryan Howard, lefty slider WHIFFFFFF. Edited October 11, 2010 by bartshan-83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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