Thurman#1 Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 In my book, a successful first round pick is a player who a) plays at a level at or above what you'd expect from his draft slot, and b) contributes a long number of years to your football team. With that said, let's see how many of the Bills' first round picks over the last decade or so have been successful. How long a guys stays has nothing to do with how long he stays. Two different issues entirely. I agree totally with expecting play at a level you'd expect from his draft slot, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 How long a guys stays has nothing to do with how long he stays. Two different issues entirely. I agree totally with expecting play at a level you'd expect from his draft slot, though. The Bills have had the habit of using first round picks on CBs, only to let them go first-contract-and-out. Take a guy like Antoine Winfield for example. He's spent more years with the Vikings than with the Bills. They got more use out of that first round pick than we did! In looking over Indy's first round picks since 2000, I didn't see a single Antoine Winfield story. Not once did they let a successful first round pick leave in the prime of his career. TD drafted Nate Clements just a few years after the Bills took Winfield. Why? Was his plan to have a pair of shutdown corners for many long years to come? Or did he draft Clements as a replacement for Winfield? If the latter, it would imply TD had decided upon the strategy of letting Winfield go first-contract-and-out. The first strategy would have been a lot better than the second. But regardless of whatever TD's intentions may have been, his action was to let Winfield walk. Not only that, but Clements' contract expired under TD's general managership as well. (Levy franchised him for a year, then let him walk.) The value of a first round pick = the player's average level of play * the number of years he plays for your franchise. If your overall strategy causes your first round CBs to spend the first 40% of their careers with you, and the remaining 60% with some other team; then that strategy will reduce by 60% the value you're receiving from your first round picks. The whole point of using a first round pick on a player should be to get a long-term answer at a specific position. If a first round pick goes first-contract-and-out, that pick will have failed in the objective for which it should have been intended. I'll grant that with most of the Bills' first-contract-and-out CBs, the failure was not the result of bad talent evaluation. But good drafting requires more than just good talent evaluation. It requires the general manager to honestly ask, "Where does this player fit in my long-term plan for this franchise?" If the answer to that question is, "He'll be too expensive to keep after his first contract," it's a bad draft pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted October 5, 2010 Share Posted October 5, 2010 (edited) Well a season is 16 games................ But you are right, the GM and coach should immediatly turn around a franchise in one offseason installing a new offence and defence I'm not panicking at 0-4 as I knew this team was going to fail this season as did most posters here and the rest of the NFL world. Most everyone rated this teams off season as bad because they failed to address the weakest area of the team. QB-LT-RT-C-WR-OLB SIX positions to fill and they didn't fill any with the draft, they tried to fill RT with a player that wouldn't even make most teams rosters, much less start. How many games is it going to take FOR YOU to see how bad this team really is, and how bad this new GM and HC have botched things? Edited October 5, 2010 by Harvey lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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