63.84% chance of making playoffs

[Typical TBD Guy]

I did all the math right. Don't worry about that. Worry about my individual game percentages. There's 16 of them. Here they are:

 

Week 14:

Steelers (H) over Jets - 80% likelihood

Giants over Ravens (H) - 20%

Dolphins over Broncos (H) - 20%

Bears over Jags (H) - 20%

 

Week 15:

Seahawks over Jets (H) - 40% likelihood

Colts (H) over Ravens - 80%

Chiefs (H) over Broncos - 50%

Packers (H) over Jags - 80%

 

Week 16:

EDIT: Patriots over Jets (H) - 80% likelihood

Steelers (H) over Ravens - 80%

Titans (H) over Broncos - 40%

Texans over Jags (H) - 40%

 

Week 17:

Rams (H) over Jets - 60% likelihood

Dolphins over Ravens (H) - 20%

Colts over Broncos (H) - 50%

Raiders (H) over Jags - 40%

 

I want everyone's feedback on my percentages. I kept them simple by only giving out 5 different possibilities: 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, and 80%. However, now that I worked out the raw probability template, it's only a matter of number substitution. So basically, give me your opinion and feel free to be more specific (as in, feel free to make your percentage increments by 5% or whatever).

 

Thanks,

 

The Kelso

[thisiskeith12]

I agree with most of this, however, I think the Steelers and Jets game will be much closer than an 80% likelihood. I also feel that the Bears have a better shot against the Jags. I also feel the Dolphins vs Broncos game could go either way. The Broncos are on a losing streak. .

 

Week 14:

Steelers (H) over Jets - 60 - 70% likelihood

Giants over Ravens (H) - 20%

Dolphins over Broncos (H) - 50%

Bears over Jags (H) - 50%

 

The Broncos and Chiefs game, along with the Pack and Jags game will be doozies.

 

Week 15:

Seahawks over Jets (H) - 40% likelihood

Colts (H) over Ravens - 70%

Chiefs (H) over Broncos - 50%

Packers (H) over Jags - 60%

 

I think the Ravens and Steelers game will be a doozie as well. I really like the Titans against the Broncos. Especially after seeing them against the Colts. I think that's going to be a close one too. David Carr plays to win every game, I think he will give the Jags a challenge.

 

Week 16:

Patriots over Jets (H) - 20% likelihood

Steelers (H) over Ravens - 60%

Titans (H) over Broncos - 40%

Texans over Jags (H) - 50%

 

The odds of the Rams beating the Jets IMO are slim to none. The Dolphins may be playing for a first rounder, as I would hope not though. Their defense could contain the Baltimore Offense, but that would be about it.

 

Week 17:

Rams (H) over Jets - 30% likelihood

Dolphins over Ravens (H) - 40%

Colts over Broncos (H) - 60%

Raiders (H) over Jags - 30%

 

What are your percentages on the remaining games for the Bills?

 

I honestly feel our chances against Pitt aren't too bad. They are going to be facing some strong teams before us, they may save some of their players for the playoffs.

[maddog]

I did all the math right. Don't worry about that. Worry about my individual game percentages. There's 16 of them. Here they are:

 

Week 14:

Steelers (H) over Jets - 80% likelihood

Giants over Ravens (H) - 20%

Dolphins over Broncos (H) - 20%

Bears over Jags (H) - 20%

 

Week 15:

Seahawks over Jets (H) - 40% likelihood

Colts (H) over Ravens - 80%

Chiefs (H) over Broncos - 50%

Packers (H) over Jags - 80%

 

Week 16:

Patriots over Jets (H) - 20% likelihood

Steelers (H) over Ravens - 80%

Titans (H) over Broncos - 40%

Texans over Jags (H) - 40%

 

Week 17:

Rams (H) over Jets - 60% likelihood

Dolphins over Ravens (H) - 20%

Colts over Broncos (H) - 50%

Raiders (H) over Jags - 40%

 

I want everyone's feedback on my percentages. I kept them simple by only giving out 5 different possibilities: 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, and 80%. However, now that I worked out the raw probability template, it's only a matter of number substitution. So basically, give me your opinion and feel free to be more specific (as in, feel free to make your percentage increments by 5% or whatever).

 

Thanks,

 

The Kelso

149855[/snapback]

I posted the results of a similar exercise yesterday and came up with a 56% chance of making the playoffs. The individual game percentages were pretty similar.

 

What I find interesting is that most people still feel the playoffs are a longshot even if the Bills win out. I'm not guaranteeing they would get in but their chances aren't bad.

[DC Tom]

What are your percentages on the remaining games for the Bills?

 

I honestly feel our chances against Pitt aren't too bad. They are going to be facing some strong teams before us, they may save some of their players for the playoffs.

149874[/snapback]

 

 

Beat me to it.

 

Even if your percentages are spot-on, KH, it's a meaningless probability estimate without simulatneously estimating the probability of the Bills winning out the season.

[BuffOrange]

The Steelers will not be taking off the last game. Since they own the tiebreaker over NE, one of the following needs to happen:

1) Pittsburgh enters the final weekend with a 1-game lead

2) NE enters the final weekend with a 2-game lead

 

Both are unlikely. They will either be tied, or NE will have a 1-game lead. Pittsburgh will come to play, although I still think we can beat 'em.

[Cugalabanza]

63.84% chance of making playoffs, (assuming we win our last 4, of course)

 

Reminds me of the scene from Naked Gun:

Capt. Ed Hocken: Doctors say that Nordberg has a 50 - 50 chance of living, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

 

[RI Bills Fan]

Beat me to it.

 

Even if your percentages are spot-on, KH, it's a meaningless probability estimate without simulatneously estimating the probability of the Bills winning out the season.

150415[/snapback]

 

I've read your Sig line, Tom so I know that the highlighted word must be correct.

 

So, could you please enlighten me as to what the #@*^ it means?

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I agree with next week and though the effort is much appreciated, i think you should include with this not only the huge caveat that the Bills must win out (I feel good about next week here against Cleveland which leaves crunch time on the road against Cincy, a west coast trip that is easily winnable against the hapless 49ers, but cannot be assumed given how trips west treat us even after the Seattle romp- have two cheeseburgers, and more crunch time against the Steelers at home), but also the caveat that your percentages will need to be updated each week and wil change radically as results occur.

 

I like the % you chose for next week's opponent's games, but in the last week (and even the week before that life almost certainly will change alot.

For example if the Jets are playing for everything and the Rams have little to gain in the last game, I think the 60% switches the Jets way even if the Rams are at home.

 

Add thecaveat and you got me.

[DC Tom]

I've read your Sig line, Tom so I know that the highlighted word must be correct.

 

So, could you please enlighten me as to what the #@*^ it means?

150442[/snapback]

 

It means just what it says. Geez, if you can't even read, why should I be bothered to teach you?

[Typical TBD Guy]

I was originally going to add this:

 

Probability of Bills getting outside help: 63.84%

 

Bills (H) over Browns - 80% likelihood

Bills over Bengals (H) - 40%

Bills over 49ers (H) - 80%

Bills (H) over Steelers - 40%

 

Probability of Bills finishing 10-6 - 10.24%

 

Total Probability of making playoffs - 6.54%

 

But that last number was too depressing...

[Rubes]

Beat me to it.

 

Even if your percentages are spot-on, KH, it's a meaningless probability estimate without simulatneously estimating the probability of the Bills winning out the season.

150415[/snapback]

 

Duh, it's 100% baby.

[Rubes]

Week 16:

Patriots over Jets (H) - 20% likelihood

149855[/snapback]

 

 

Perhaps I'm missing something...how is that a 20% likelihood?

 

Perhaps if it was Jets over Patriots, maybe...

[Typical TBD Guy]

150445[/snapback]

 

No doubt, the individual game percentages will have to be changed and updated each week - this playoff probability "algorithm" was meant to be dynamic. As long as the Bills keep winning, I'll keep updating each week.

 

I don't know if what I did was at all helpful or interesting to anyone else, but it does put things in perspective - at least for me. Now, when family and friends call me up to ask about the Bills, I can say that I think they have a roughly 1 in 10 chance of winning out, a roughly 2 in 3 chance of getting outside help from other teams, and a roughly 1 in 15 chance of making the playoffs.

[Typical TBD Guy]

Perhaps I'm missing something...how is that a 20% likelihood?

 

Perhaps if it was Jets over Patriots, maybe...

150513[/snapback]

 

Oops, I meant to type 80% likelihood, not 20%. The end-result percentage numbers are all still accurate; that was just a typo.

[Rubes]

Oops, I meant to type 80% likelihood, not 20%. The end-result percentage numbers are all still accurate; that was just a typo.

150529[/snapback]

 

Whew...thought I was wacko.

[KurtGodel77]

Kelso: I think you're being a little optimistic about those games the Jets have against those NFC West teams. Neither Seattle nor St. Louis are particularly good. The Seahawks just finished losing to the Cowboys on Monday Night, a week after being completely dominated by us.

 

On the other hand, I think you're underestimating our chances of winning out. We have four games left, but two are against Cleveland and San Francisco. That just leaves Cincinnati (who I think we can beat, even on the road) and Pittsburgh. I'd say our odds of winning the Pittsburgh game are 50/50, even if Pittsburgh comes to play. Buffalo is a hard team to beat at the Ralph in the middle of winter.

[KurtGodel77]

Assuming the Bills have an 80% chance of winning against San Francisco, another 80% chance of winning against Cleveland, a 2/3 chance of beating Cincinnati, and a 50% chance of beating Pittsburgh, there is a 21% chance they will go 10-6. If they beat Cleveland, that chance will go up to 26%.