With the 58th pick in the 2010 UFL Draft...

[Orton's Arm]

Of course the flip side of that is to do what the Bills did this year and draft the best available player regardless of position, even if it's one of the very few places where you actually have decent talent/depth - I'm not so sure I like that strategy a whole lot better.

 

Regardless, in the end of comes down to talent evaluation and it's pretty clear to me that has been an area where the Bills get their a$$es handed to them year after year. Unfortuantely, I'm not sure we've seen enough change here from the past and I fear getting the same sort of results going forward - can we sink any lower?

I largely agree with your first paragraph. If your starting QB is Joe Montana in his prime, and if you have Steve Young backing him up, it would be foolish to use your first round pick on a QB. Using similar logic, I had misgivings about the Spiller pick; even though most draft experts had him as the highest-rated player on the board when the Bills picked.

 

In a perfect world, you as a GM could trade into a draft spot where the best available player was also a guy at a position of need. In this past draft, that could have meant trading up (for example to grab a LT) or trading our pick away to someone who coveted Spiller.

 

But this world isn't perfect, and the trading opportunities you want aren't always there. So draft picks should be based on some combination of need and best player available; with a bias towards the latter. If you grab talent at a position where you're already set, you can always trade the more veteran/established player away for more picks. But if you take a Donte Whitner eighth overall, there's nothing you can do to salvage the situation.

 

As far as talent evaluation goes--I really like the fact that Nix is now running the show. If the problem was with the guy making the final call, we should see significant improvement in the team's talent evaluation. But if the problem was with the scouts themselves, then I agree that more will need to change.

[Gabe Northern]

Dude, the Vikes made went something like 7-1 with Fowler starting and made a crazy playoff run. He was pretty young and seemed like there was some upside. Marv filled a need before the draft. Hindsight makes it pretty obvious to draft Mangold. Unfortunately, in the real world, you don't have the power of hindsight.

 

Let's go through how this works:

 

Team performs well IN SPITE of poor play from certain player.

 

Team gets rid of said player for someone else in effort to upgrade position.

 

Bills sign said player.

 

Bills fans use player's previous team's good performance as evidence that this player is good despite obvious evidence to the contrary.

[BillsFanInLV]

That's the problem - we "guess bad". How many guys, both college kids and vets, have we "guessed bad" about? We've had some pretty terrible talent evaluation in the last decade, and that leaves us with some really terrible talent on the o-line.

 

The fact that Fowler had been cut from 2 team prior to the Bills perhaps should have been an indicator that he didn't have what it took to play in the NFL, but somehow we thought he was good enough to start and anchor the middle of the o-line. After the Bills he never played another NFL game - didn't make any squad, even as a backup! He's 31 now and being drafted almost last by the UFL - that's one hell of a bad guess by the Bills and unfortunately it was just one of many....

 

Well said. --For years we've disagreed with Kyper and all the other analysts when they 'knock' our picks, however when you look at it, some of the 'obvious' picks that we didn't make ended up biting us in the rear. I think when draft day comes the Bills Organization tries to get 'cute' during the draft and show they can 'outsmart' other teams with MCCargo-esque and Maybin-esque picks. ---Just MY thoughts.

[BillsFanInLV]

Well said. --For years we've disagreed with Kyper and all the other analysts when they 'knock' our picks, however when you look at it, some of the 'obvious' picks that we didn't make ended up biting us in the rear. I think when draft day comes the Bills Organization tries to get 'cute' during the draft and show they can 'outsmart' other teams with MCCargo-esque and Maybin-esque picks. ---Just MY thoughts.

 

 

One more thing......I really liked this years draft and am excited to see the Defense solidified with tough, fast players.

[C.Biscuit97]

Let's go through how this works:

 

Team performs well IN SPITE of poor play from certain player.

 

Team gets rid of said player for someone else in effort to upgrade position.

 

Bills sign said player.

 

Bills fans use player's previous team's good performance as evidence that this player is good despite obvious evidence to the contrary.

 

 

Let's go how this works again:

 

When something doesn't work, fans B word and say the team should have done the opposite thing.

[Gabe Northern]

Let's go how this works again:

 

When something doesn't work, fans B word and say the team should have done the opposite thing.

 

Defending Fowler based on Minny's record is the same as looking at Carolina's 2008 rushing yardage as evidence Geoff Hangartner was a good signing.

 

I understand your point about hindsight bias, but you need to appreciate all those occasions when the Bills' moves don't make sense at the time and then -- lo and friggin' behold -- don't end up working out.

[NewHampshireBillsFan]

That's the problem - we "guess bad". How many guys, both college kids and vets, have we "guessed bad" about? We've had some pretty terrible talent evaluation in the last decade, and that leaves us with some really terrible talent on the o-line.

 

The fact that Fowler had been cut from 2 team prior to the Bills perhaps should have been an indicator that he didn't have what it took to play in the NFL, but somehow we thought he was good enough to start and anchor the middle of the o-line. After the Bills he never played another NFL game - didn't make any squad, even as a backup! He's 31 now and being drafted almost last by the UFL - that's one hell of a bad guess by the Bills and unfortunately it was just one of many....

 

He was signed by Arizona in August 2009 and released in September 2009 and then signed by Detroit in November 2009 and released in December 2009, so he was at least a backup for part of 2009.

 

Actually I'm always amazed at how many Bills players that are cut make it onto other squads for at least a while, and sometimes for a several years.

[shrader]

NHL started with 6

 

Actually, there were only 4. The "original 6" are actually the longest running teams in the league, not the founding members.

[JPicc2114]

Usually leagues of a sport that do not have the best players in it, fail. If it is a brand new sport then it has a chance.

[Orton's Arm]

He was signed by Arizona in August 2009 and released in September 2009 and then signed by Detroit in November 2009 and released in December 2009, so he was at least a backup for part of 2009.

 

Actually I'm always amazed at how many Bills players that are cut make it onto other squads for at least a while, and sometimes for a several years.

That's some good info! The fact that Fowler is only 31 and can't hold onto even a backup spot in the NFL, and barely managed to be drafted by the UFL, speaks volumes about the man Marv once billed as his answer to the hole at center. Kent Hull he ain't.