Things to keep in mind as we figure out Bills draft needs

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

There are several posts in threads below (some even site quotes from someone who actually is a Bills decision-maker but many are simply fact-free opinions) which made various stone cold certainty claims which reminded me of a few points which I think are likely true as we declare our own opinions that I think folks should keep in mind:

 

1. If the Bills braintrust is smart then they are simply lying about a lot of things they say. This means when you quote the words of the braintrust one must simply understand that if they are smart they are probably lying about what they say.

 

Its nothing personal and its nothing against you as a person (no matter how much you may deserve it). However, if the Bills are actually serving your ultimate interests (which I assume for many of you is to have a team that puts up enough Ws to certainly make the playoffs for the first time in a decade but if we get lucky and we are good even win the SB). The thing the Bills braintrust needs to do in order to be most successful at reaching this goal is to at the very least not tip their hand as to what our plans, needs, and desires are. Actually if they are good and want to get maximum advantage they would do well in serving us fans that they flat out fool everyone as to what our plans, needs, and desires are.

 

Its a tough game in that if you get the rep as a liar no one will believe you and it becomes impossible or hard to make trades or reach contractual agreements with your own players. Its tough in that by my judgment as a fan I could not really trust anything that TD for example said.

 

However, I was a lot of times quite happy he was actually such a pretty accomplished liar as he used his steely nerve to do things like get a 1st rounder for Peerless Price (and actually keep a good relationship with PP who had the contractual right to mess up our game but he trusted TD and got the reward of a huge contract for not throwing a hissy fit when the Bills tagged him) and also to stick to his guns as potential trade partners drafted RBs but he still got a first day pick in exchange for this felon. I am glad we got rid of TD because I really disliked how he tried to build a team but I honestly (and I think correctly) acknowledge that the fact he lied all the time really benefitted us in some specific cases.

 

The bottom-line is that while it would be nice for me as a fan to know what we are doing, because I am most committed to this team putting up Ws I really hope the braintrust is at least not being honest we me and the public and further I would not be displeased if they are simply flat-out lying and fooling me.

 

2. That pesky thing called reality matters.

 

This means that while a major contention held strongly by some on TSW (and which theoretically I agree with actually) the BEST way to build a team is from the trenches out. It strikes me as flat out clear that the BEST way to build is from the inside out, but as far are reality dictates who cares.

 

The Bills have neither laid the groundwork for building from the inside out nor accumulated some outstanding "skill" position players that the course for us to build from is obvious. IMHO there are two draft a great QB strategies which have worked since Dallas took Aikman in the 80s and reached the goal of an SB win. A. Draft a stud QB like P. Manning and build around him and B. get a player like RoboQB who is a first round draftee who can join with your one step away from glory team to win it all.

 

The problem with a QB pick in the first is this team is no where near where Pitts was in drafting a 1st round QB that makes the difference and as best I can tell none of the potential 1st round choices at QB is anywhere near what P. Manning brought to the table (Tebow seems closest in leadership quality where actually having him should make our troubled OL play better, but his problem is that Tebow does not appear to be a Manning in terms of running the Pro offense productively and also Manning came with the quick release that gave his OL time to grow around him. Tebow (who proved as a college player that he is merely human when it comes down to the devastating hit appears unlikely to survive for a couple of years behind our challenged OL while they learn to protect him and he learns a speedy Pro pass speed which allows him to protect himself.

 

IMHO, the Bills get better fastest by going to the default of getting more talent in the trenches and doing an at least adequate job so they do not pick a bust like Mike Williams (though ironically I think the other "obvious" LT choice in that draft Bryant McKinnie likely would have been a bad choice for the Bills to make as well as he pretty clearly demonstrated he was an idiot with his holdout and his public sex antics on a booze cruise- if we had taken McKinnie my guess he still would have been an idiot just an idiot on a bad team. The MW/McKinnie situation mostly points toward not being a slave to filling positional need with he best player available with a choice if the best player available is not the best player available overall as both MW and McK had character defects which in retrospect with 20/20 hindsight seem like they could have been detectable. While who knew at the time that the grammy who raised MW would die (the starting point as best I can tell of his downward spiral down the player drain) the Bills braintrust should have been able to see that if they were gonna take this manboy that he was really more of a boyman and that if they took him they better have an old hand like a Ruben Brown take him under his wing if they wanted him to become the adult they wanted.

 

Overall for this team reality matters and in order for this team to become a TEAM there is going to be a need for Gailey to really build a new "family" from bottom to top with whatever good leaders he identifies (Tasker for example was not a great athlete but was a good leader as best as I can tell) to really set the tone for this team.

 

3. Athletes and players are different things.

 

My sense is that Marshawn Lynch is a much better athlete than Coe College graduate Fred Jackson. However, it seems pretty clear to me that Jackson is a better player than Lynch.

 

The key for the Bills is to get more good players and take into account but not simply be addicted to getting the best athletes.

 

It is a difficult balance as it is true that it is difficult to teach height and difficult to teach speed. The athleticism of players is a real factor to be accounted for. However, the main failing I feel as a fan judging who we should take and who we should not is that particularly in this world where the first things potential athletes learn is to fake sincerity is that it is hard for us outsiders to judge character without shaking someone's hand and looking them in the eye to assess their character.

 

These men are pretty much all accomplished athletes and I look for the proof being in the pudding that there is something there that adds to the strengths and limitations they bring to the table.

 

The bottomline for me is that I actually am not willing to throw a Chris Kelsay under the bus as I think it may be possible he could make the shift for us and become a useful OLB. He does have some good raw talent and has demonstrated a persistence that.

 

Hpwever, the proof is in the pudding and Kelsay has not produced enough on the field for anyone to come anywhere near assuming he will be enough of a player to do the job the Bills need as an OLB (or even less likely as an undersized RDE in a 3-4. However, he has gained too much experience as a Pro, shown a lot of persistence as a high motor DE the Bills have loved, shown some stoutness against the run for us, even showed some good speed running way back when at the Combine (despite various revisionist whiners labeling him slow even though his problems have been more about the lack of a quick first step and effective first move rather than slowness(. The bottomline is that the Bills simply do not have any great talents who demand to be given the starting DE job or the OLB job and Kelsay should not be cut at all and should not even be traded unless another team is foolish enough to give up a high first day pick for him.

 

In my book, I have no problem with Maybin, Schobel, and/or Ellis making it easy to do without Kelsay, but I would have big problems if the Bills simply gave up on him and cut him without giving reality a chance to dispose of him on the field.

[Thurman#1]

1. If the Bills braintrust is smart then they are simply lying about a lot of things they say.

 

 

Not necessarily true at all. They can't give away what they're doing, so they can't give away privileged info, but there's no need to lie. Also no need not to lie. But especially on really obvious stuff like "We need a left tackle," why not admit it? Does anyone seriously think that other teams don't already know that?

 

 

2. That pesky thing called reality matters.

 

 

For the slow learners among us, like me, could you summarize in one or two sentences what you're trying to say here?

 

 

3. Athletes and players are different things.

 

 

OK, I'm with you. But what does this sentence mean?

 

 

The bottomline for me is that I actually am not willing to throw a Chris Kelsay under the bus as I think it may be possible he could make the shift for us and become a useful OLB. He does have some good raw talent and has demonstrated a persistence that.

[BillnutinHouston]

I tried delving into several paragraphs of this, but its really hard to follow. I'm sure there may be valid thoughts in there somewhere - for example, I do agree that the Bills' brass intentionally obfuscates about their real intentions (I think that was one of the points you were making).

[bowery4]

I think that is what he did more than any points he made.

[Bob in STL]

There are several posts in threads below (some even site quotes from someone who actually is a Bills decision-maker but many are simply fact-free opinions) which made various stone cold certainty claims which reminded me of a few points which I think are likely true as we declare our own opinions that I think folks should keep in mind:

 

1. If the Bills braintrust is smart then they are simply lying about a lot of things they say. This means when you quote the words of the braintrust one must simply understand that if they are smart they are probably lying about what they say.

 

Its nothing personal and its nothing against you as a person (no matter how much you may deserve it). However, if the Bills are actually serving your ultimate interests (which I assume for many of you is to have a team that puts up enough Ws to certainly make the playoffs for the first time in a decade but if we get lucky and we are good even win the SB). The thing the Bills braintrust needs to do in order to be most successful at reaching this goal is to at the very least not tip their hand as to what our plans, needs, and desires are. Actually if they are good and want to get maximum advantage they would do well in serving us fans that they flat out fool everyone as to what our plans, needs, and desires are.

 

Its a tough game in that if you get the rep as a liar no one will believe you and it becomes impossible or hard to make trades or reach contractual agreements with your own players. Its tough in that by my judgment as a fan I could not really trust anything that TD for example said.

 

However, I was a lot of times quite happy he was actually such a pretty accomplished liar as he used his steely nerve to do things like get a 1st rounder for Peerless Price (and actually keep a good relationship with PP who had the contractual right to mess up our game but he trusted TD and got the reward of a huge contract for not throwing a hissy fit when the Bills tagged him) and also to stick to his guns as potential trade partners drafted RBs but he still got a first day pick in exchange for this felon. I am glad we got rid of TD because I really disliked how he tried to build a team but I honestly (and I think correctly) acknowledge that the fact he lied all the time really benefitted us in some specific cases.

 

The bottom-line is that while it would be nice for me as a fan to know what we are doing, because I am most committed to this team putting up Ws I really hope the braintrust is at least not being honest we me and the public and further I would not be displeased if they are simply flat-out lying and fooling me.

 

2. That pesky thing called reality matters.

 

This means that while a major contention held strongly by some on TSW (and which theoretically I agree with actually) the BEST way to build a team is from the trenches out. It strikes me as flat out clear that the BEST way to build is from the inside out, but as far are reality dictates who cares.

 

The Bills have neither laid the groundwork for building from the inside out nor accumulated some outstanding "skill" position players that the course for us to build from is obvious. IMHO there are two draft a great QB strategies which have worked since Dallas took Aikman in the 80s and reached the goal of an SB win. A. Draft a stud QB like P. Manning and build around him and B. get a player like RoboQB who is a first round draftee who can join with your one step away from glory team to win it all.

 

The problem with a QB pick in the first is this team is no where near where Pitts was in drafting a 1st round QB that makes the difference and as best I can tell none of the potential 1st round choices at QB is anywhere near what P. Manning brought to the table (Tebow seems closest in leadership quality where actually having him should make our troubled OL play better, but his problem is that Tebow does not appear to be a Manning in terms of running the Pro offense productively and also Manning came with the quick release that gave his OL time to grow around him. Tebow (who proved as a college player that he is merely human when it comes down to the devastating hit appears unlikely to survive for a couple of years behind our challenged OL while they learn to protect him and he learns a speedy Pro pass speed which allows him to protect himself.

 

IMHO, the Bills get better fastest by going to the default of getting more talent in the trenches and doing an at least adequate job so they do not pick a bust like Mike Williams (though ironically I think the other "obvious" LT choice in that draft Bryant McKinnie likely would have been a bad choice for the Bills to make as well as he pretty clearly demonstrated he was an idiot with his holdout and his public sex antics on a booze cruise- if we had taken McKinnie my guess he still would have been an idiot just an idiot on a bad team. The MW/McKinnie situation mostly points toward not being a slave to filling positional need with he best player available with a choice if the best player available is not the best player available overall as both MW and McK had character defects which in retrospect with 20/20 hindsight seem like they could have been detectable. While who knew at the time that the grammy who raised MW would die (the starting point as best I can tell of his downward spiral down the player drain) the Bills braintrust should have been able to see that if they were gonna take this manboy that he was really more of a boyman and that if they took him they better have an old hand like a Ruben Brown take him under his wing if they wanted him to become the adult they wanted.

 

Overall for this team reality matters and in order for this team to become a TEAM there is going to be a need for Gailey to really build a new "family" from bottom to top with whatever good leaders he identifies (Tasker for example was not a great athlete but was a good leader as best as I can tell) to really set the tone for this team.

 

3. Athletes and players are different things.

 

My sense is that Marshawn Lynch is a much better athlete than Coe College graduate Fred Jackson. However, it seems pretty clear to me that Jackson is a better player than Lynch.

 

The key for the Bills is to get more good players and take into account but not simply be addicted to getting the best athletes.

 

It is a difficult balance as it is true that it is difficult to teach height and difficult to teach speed. The athleticism of players is a real factor to be accounted for. However, the main failing I feel as a fan judging who we should take and who we should not is that particularly in this world where the first things potential athletes learn is to fake sincerity is that it is hard for us outsiders to judge character without shaking someone's hand and looking them in the eye to assess their character.

 

These men are pretty much all accomplished athletes and I look for the proof being in the pudding that there is something there that adds to the strengths and limitations they bring to the table.

 

The bottomline for me is that I actually am not willing to throw a Chris Kelsay under the bus as I think it may be possible he could make the shift for us and become a useful OLB. He does have some good raw talent and has demonstrated a persistence that.

 

Hpwever, the proof is in the pudding and Kelsay has not produced enough on the field for anyone to come anywhere near assuming he will be enough of a player to do the job the Bills need as an OLB (or even less likely as an undersized RDE in a 3-4. However, he has gained too much experience as a Pro, shown a lot of persistence as a high motor DE the Bills have loved, shown some stoutness against the run for us, even showed some good speed running way back when at the Combine (despite various revisionist whiners labeling him slow even though his problems have been more about the lack of a quick first step and effective first move rather than slowness(. The bottomline is that the Bills simply do not have any great talents who demand to be given the starting DE job or the OLB job and Kelsay should not be cut at all and should not even be traded unless another team is foolish enough to give up a high first day pick for him.

 

In my book, I have no problem with Maybin, Schobel, and/or Ellis making it easy to do without Kelsay, but I would have big problems if the Bills simply gave up on him and cut him without giving reality a chance to dispose of him on the field.

 

If you are saying:

1. Teams cloak their intentions. Expect a surprise in the draft.

2. Look at our division - We have to get bigger and stronger on both lines to compete.

3 . Draft players not athletes and projects (like Maybin).

 

Then I agree.