The total Marv as GM draft assessment is now viable

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

Its been 3 years of play for the Bill's classes of 06 and 07 chosen under Marv Levy's GM ship and legit judgments can be made. There is some reasonable case to want to give Marv two grades in terms of our 20/20 hindsight (the real grade based on what really happened) but also a grade based on what reasonably could have been known at the time

 

20/20 Hindsight Grade What we Knew Then

 

Donte Whitner Ohio State- C (at best)pro starter but no difference maker B- Definitely best S available in this draft better than Huff taken just prior and 2nd of three Ss taken in first round (this fact and the importance of SZS in SB winners at Pitt and Indy shows those who claim you never take an S that early are simply behind the times) but filling trench openings is rarely a bad strategy and the team should likely have gone after Ngata rather than be disappointed by Whitner

 

John McCargo NC State- F a bust due to injury and skill level C- Reaching for this pick shows DT was a real need and though McCargo was better than other high profile options (no DT was taken by anyone in the 2nd indicating you had to step up if you wanted McCargo but strategy should have been to strengthen the DL with Ngata making the need to stretch and fail with McCargo

 

Ashton Youboty Ohio State - D (at best due to injury and bad luck when his Mom died) B- Nice pick-u[ at the time as Youbouty showed signs of being a 1st round talent who was available in the 3rd because he left a year early and there had been a DB run in the first round because teams were forced to bid higher than the past for help at safety. It was also a smart move on paper at the time as insiders could see a coming problem with the DBs due to FA strategy and market

 

Ko Simpson South Carolina- D (at best as we did get an instant starter from a second day choice which is a big bonus but in hindsight he did not have the talent to sustain a career as a Bill). C- Not a bad pick at the time as we had clear needs at safety and Simpson gave us an immediate starter though he fizzled for the Bills after a couple of years.

 

Kyle Williams LSU- B+ (turned out to be a Pro Bowl alternate level player which is pretty amazing for a second day pick- however any revelation about this picks needs to be done in the context of the failed reach for McCargo and any whine about missing on McCargo need to join with giving kudos for picking Williams) B- Good pick at the time due to our lack of depth at DT and desire to move to a rotation which quickly became a very good pick as he beat out McCargo for the starting job

 

Brad Butler Virginia C- (In real life this second day pick became a starter legiimately worthy of the extension he got, he was a part of a productive OL we had a couple of years ago but gets marked down some in reality due to injury issues) B+ a very good pick-up of a guy available on the second day who had first day talent. He lost ground because an uncharacteristic dirty play was caught clearly on film, but good research produced enough character references that the Bills took the risk.

 

Keith Ellison Oregon St. B- Reasonable second day depth choice who quickly due to injury played a key role as a starter. It is doubtful he is big enough to be relied upon as a starting OLB but until injured earlier this year was leading the league in tackles- this is a subjective rather than objective stat so there is no way one should consider him the real deal at starting OLB, but still in real life he was asked too much of but was a + pick by Marv. A mere avg C pick at the time.

 

Terrance Pennington New Mexico D in real life he got cut but did give the Bills some valuable credible starts before longterm reality set in C pick as second late rounders are mere projects or fill-ins at best

 

Aaron Merz California Same deal as Pennington as this D in real life got cut but only after providing a credible valuable start for us due to injuries of frontline players his rookie year but his skill level dictated that in reality he was no answer. C pick as second day late rounders are mere projects or fill-ins at best.

 

Overall- Not a bad job by Marv considering that overall the team was dysfunctional under the ownership of Mr. Ralph (Marv came in as a fellow "Golden Boy" for Mr. Ralph which actually underscored how the ultimate Bills problem is toxic relationships between the owners and GMs Polian, Butler and TD). However, the results were clearly inadequate as Marv deserves his fair share of the blame (a heaping portion though the big blame goes to his fellow Golden Boy Mr. Ralph)

 

For this first year output I think at best one gives Marv a C for the real world results of the choices as the first day picks were all disappointments or flat out busts and the second day picks produced some solid players and he made some inventive picks with what we knew at the time. Nice try but no cigar in terms of results.

 

 

 

Marshawn Lynch California - I would give him a B as he still has some great value to the Bills as a former Pro Bowl pick now backing up the #1 Jackson in a league in which a team simply needs 2 potential starter RBs. In the real world, Lynch has proven himself to be (despite a downturn in his production now that the clearly is the #2 RB). His production problems though are not physical talent issues but some really stupid personal choices in driving on Chippewa St. as a rookie and carrying a gun as a sophomore. I assume (may be wrong but I do not think so) that he signed a 5 year deal as a rookie and if so the Bills should push him to produce next season but depending on how reality plays out look to maximize his value to the team next year by either seeing more real world production out of him or potentially getting value for him in a late season trade next year. A I think it was an A choice at the time as he was clearly the best RB in the draft after Peterson and he demonstrated on the field where he was incredibly difficult to bring down on the first hit that he was the real deal.

 

Paul Posluszny Penn St. - i would also give him a B in that he has proven to be a consistent starter at MLB who has shown the both the speed and intellect needed for the dual run plug and coverage duty required on an MLB in the Tampa 2 style Cover 2 we use. However, having missed significant parts of his first two years to arm breaks the choice of finding an immediate starter at MLB from the draft is downgraded by the reality of his injuries. I would give him an A choice at the time because he seemingly had found an immediate starter (a 50/50 proposition to even find a first year at some point starter in the 1st round in the real world). However, the fantasy ended quickly with an injury after a quarter of a season.

 

Trent Edwards Stanford - C at best as a former starting QB has some value to other teams in the NFL and since he seems to be done as a Bills starter (though we are about to get a new HC and thus a new OC and QB Coach so it would not be utterly surprising if he gets a chance to work his way back into the Bills picture. Still I am pretty tempted to list him as a D because the Edwards fantasy ran head on into the fact he meets my qualifications for declaring him injury prone (misses PT 3 or more times in 2 seasons with injuries to different part of his body. Edwards was a good B pick at least when he was taken as no less than Bill Walsh recommended him and he had slipped through the 2nd round where many felt he would be taken. Those inside the Bills organization also knew how tenuous the Bills plans for Losman who had been too quickly promoted to starter were so the Edwards pick was actually a smart move by Marv.

 

Dwayne Wright Fresno St. F- we got nothing out of him and this pick was wasted. It was a C idea at the time though as Wright had shown productivity in college as a rusher and as a pass catcher that he made outward sense to be developed as a second RB who could play the FB role for us.

 

John Wendling Wyoming - C- Reasonable ST performer as he was drafted to be. C as a reasonable second day ST/depth choice.

 

Derek Schouman Boise St. - C as he is on IR now but has provided ST play and back-up. C choice as an ST role and fill-in status are what one would expect from a late second day choice

 

C.J. Ah You Oklahoma F in the real world and D as a project choice.

 

In his second year, I though Marv sort of reversed his first year performance. He found two immediate starters with his first two picks but the second day produced uninspired choices. Real world limitations caused by injuries to Poz and crime by Lynch reduce this draft from a B result to a C.

 

Overall, i think those who complain and whine about Marv actually miss the point that the real problem here is Mr. Ralph and that overall even the real world results are better than one can expect given the other dysfunctions of this team.

[silvermike]

Not bad: I'd bump Youboty up to a C (he's had flashes of being a decent player), give Kyle Williams a full A, and Brad Butler a B+. Those are legit late-round finds, about as good as you can expect to do. Ellison should drop to a C.

[rcatty]

what?????? (90 percent of the above picks were a waste).......Marshawn Lynch? A first round pick beaten out by a guy from the practice squad, and you give that pick a B? What are you smoking? We have the worst line(s), and undersized linebackers, many were picked by Marv....... he had terrible drafts, just like the coach he selected.

[Ray]

It is amazing to me people will b*tch about Lynch when he had two very good seasons to start and made the pro bowl but his back-up F Jackson was also a Marv pick and is an excellent back.

If those remember back to why we picked Lynch was b/c we did not have a legitimate RB and W McGahee had just been run out of town and he gladly left.

Same thing with DT...K Williams is a very good DT but the Bills whiffed on McCargo. As long as you hit on some players you are okay. Go back and look at the Polian drafts...he whiffed on most picks but if you hit on 2-3 each draft AND have a QB you have a chance.

People will complain that Maybin is a bust but won't acknowledge how great a draft it would be if Byrd, Nelson, Wood and Levitre all pan out.

[Big Hurt]

What real world fake world? His high picks were mostly reaches. Some how he valued a safety over a dominating DT was a stupid idea. I love Donte Whitner. But I am sure that I would love Ngata even more. Levy was a rookie GM and it showed on draft days. The only great pick he made was Kyle Williams, but I think he got lucky. It did take a new DL coach to get him to produce. How can you be calling Ko Simpson, Brad Butler, and even Trend Edwards decent picks? They are still playing only because they play for the Bills. Marv the GM was a joke all the way. Time has proved that he was terrible at it.

[billsfan_34]

what?????? (90 percent of the above picks were a waste).......Marshawn Lynch? A first round pick beaten out by a guy from the practice squad, and you give that pick a B? What are you smoking? We have the worst line(s), and undersized linebackers, many were picked by Marv....... he had terrible drafts, just like the coach he selected.

Fred Jackson would beat out alot of guys in this league...doesnt matter where he came from, hes that good!

[earthtobrint]

Overall draft strategy - F---

 

They failed to address the offensive line, completely neglecting it in the early rounds. They drafted small players and small positions. Even their defensive line picks were undersized players. They focused on the secondary and running back positions. Both of which were reactionary picks to the recent/impending departures of McGahee and Clements, respectively.

 

I'm normally not one to look at players drafted behind us and use hindsight as justification, but passing on Ngata was inexcusable and will continue to haunt us until we draft a dominant DT. It seems every draft expert, mock draft, and fan, before the draft had Ngata or Bunkley as a need position and best players that would be available. Instead, they drafted a safety that would've been available in the spot that they traded up to get McCargo.

[Scraps]

Same thing with DT...K Williams is a very good DT but the Bills whiffed on McCargo. As long as you hit on some players you are okay. Go back and look at the Polian drafts...he whiffed on most picks but if you hit on 2-3 each draft AND have a QB you have a chance.

 

Polian rarely whiffed in the first round and picked high in the first round only one time, picking up Shane Conlan

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

Polian rarely whiffed in the first round and picked high in the first round only one time, picking up Shane Conlan

 

James Williams? Ronnie Harmon? Jeff Burriss?

 

Not awful picks, but not exactly home runs either.

[Scraps]

James Williams? Ronnie Harmon? Jeff Burriss?

 

Not awful picks, but not exactly home runs either.

 

Didn't say they were all home runs, but they weren't John McCargos either.

[Steely Dan]

It is amazing to me people will b*tch about Lynch when he had two very good seasons to start and made the pro bowl but his back-up F Jackson was also a Marv pick and is an excellent back.

If those remember back to why we picked Lynch was b/c we did not have a legitimate RB and W McGahee had just been run out of town and he gladly left.

Same thing with DT...K Williams is a very good DT but the Bills whiffed on McCargo. As long as you hit on some players you are okay. Go back and look at the Polian drafts...he whiffed on most picks but if you hit on 2-3 each draft AND have a QB you have a chance.

People will complain that Maybin is a bust but won't acknowledge how great a draft it would be if Byrd, Nelson, Wood and Levitre all pan out.

 

Maybin is NOT a bust, yet. The Bills knew he would be a project and wouldn't really hit his stride til his second or third year. I'm not ready to call him a bust yet at all.

 

Fred Jackson would beat out alot of guys in this league...doesnt matter where he came from, hes that good!

 

I think he's a lot better than Darren McFadden.

 

 

James Williams? Ronnie Harmon? Jeff Burriss?

 

Not awful picks, but not exactly home runs either.

 

James Williams was becoming a stud just before they found the spinal cord problem that ended his career, IIRC.