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Dr. K

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    Josh Named AFC Offensive Player of the Week 2 and Week 4

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    On 9/21/2023 at 9:31 AM, Shaw66 said:

    "It seems difficult," is a good way to put it.  Yes, even Sunday, even though lots of drives ended it touchdowns.   I can't really prove it, but I think defenses have a book on Allen on the Bills.   1.  Do not let him throw long.  2.  Do not let him run.   A lot of zone defense helps accomplish both of those things.   Teams were able to get away with deep drops on zones in part (I think) because Allen didn't take the easy throw, the short throw, unless as a last resort.  

     

    Sunday, he was taking those throws.  It seemed almost like he was looking for them.   That gave the offense the look of struggling, because he was throwing what looked like check downs, over and over.   I don't think that's really what was happening.  I think Allen really drank the Kool-Aid before Sunday's game, and the Bills showed the Raiders (and the league) that they score more or less every time if the defense is designed to stop Allen and the big play.  The Bills really crushed the Raiders with that game.   

     

    Now, it's not all on Allen.  Yes, I think he made decisions the way the offense demands.   But I think the other change is the running game.  The ball isn't in Allen's hands all the time now, because he isn't the running game.  So, it wasn't just Allen taking the easy throw.  It also was the Bills running the ball with their backs, consistently, with positive gains on enough runs to make running a consistent contributor to the offense. 

     

    It goes back to what I said about skill players.   I think the way modern offenses succeed is by giving your skill guys the ball as often as you can.  The more plays your skill players have the ball, the better your offense will be.   Until we saw the Bills Sunday, giving the ball to the backs hasn't been something the Bills have wanted to do.   The backs weren't great, and the offensive line didn't get the job done.  But on Sunday, the running backs consistently hurt the defense, because the backs are better and the line is better.  So, in a sense, on Sunday the Bills had more skill players on the field than they have in the past, because they had skill players with the right skills.   The other part of getting the ball to skill players more often is a higher completion percentage.   Every completed pass is another play a skill guy has contributed, and every completed pass is a chance for a skill guy to make a play.  It's why I compared them to the 49ers.    

     

    So, yes, even Sunday the offense looked difficult.  But I think that's primarily because the Raiders defense sold out to stop the pass and stop Allen.  Defenses wil adjust, because the Bills are saying to everyone, "If you don't stop our short stuff, you'll never get the ball.  We can run 6-7-8-9 minute drives, and we can score in the red zone."  Once defenses start looking for ways to stop the short stuff, the things that make the offense look easy - the 15-20 yard completions to open receivers, Allen breaking off a 20 yarder because the defense wasn't looking - will come back.  

     

    In a way, I think what is happening is something that McDermott said several years ago - that he intended to build an offense that attacks every part of the field, sideline to sideline, from the line of scrimmage to the opponent's goal line.  Allen and John Brown and Diggs gave him a way to attack deep up the sidelines.  Davis became useful medium deep over the middle.  Beasley helped shallower over middle, but he was limited in some ways.   Allen wasn't good throwing the touch passes in the flat when he first got to Buffalo, and even now that he throws that ball well, he hasn't really had players who could do much of anything out there.    Now, it's different.  Kincaid is full-fledged threat in the middle, and he's more effective in the flat that the other tight ends.  McKenzie wasn't versatile enough in the flat or over the middle.  Cook is a threat in the flat, better than Singletary, and Murray is, too.  The run game can attack the line of scrimmage.   

     

    In short, the Bills look like they have what McDermott wanted, and the offense that can attack everywhere.  To bring it back to Allen, he now doesn't have to be the answer on every play.   He just has to get the ball to all the other guys.   He's extraordinarily talented, physically, at doing that; he just as to keep taking the easy play, over and over.   And then, every once in a while, on a play here and there, things won't go right, and Superman will save the day.  As I said, what he needs to be is Brock Purdy most of the time - just run the play as designed, and get the ball to all those guys who can catch and run.  Then, every once in a while, do something that Brock Purdy can only dream of. 

    You nailed it in this post back on 9/21, and the successive two games have proven you absolutely right. 

     

    I'm sincerely impressed. 

    Through one quarter of the season, is the NFL a much worse product than expected?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Virgil said:

    Going into this season, the AFC was meant to be an absolute dog fight for the playoffs.  You had the Chargers finally healthy and Payton to fix the Broncos, creating a super competitive AFC West.  Then you had the AFC North with the returning Bengals, Ravens with receivers, Browns/Steelers defense with an evolutionary step on offense.  The AFC East would have the Jets/Dolphins/Bills battling it out.  The AFC South was the only one team division.  In the NFC, you only had the 49ers, Cowboys, and Eagles, and hopefully continued growth from the Giants, Lions, and offensive explosive Bears.

     

    Now, four weeks in, I could barely watch the 4p games yesterday.  Prime time games have been an absolute joke.  The AFC is down to the Bills, Dolphins, and Chiefs, but even Mahomes has struggled in half his games to the point that we are talking about Swift/Kelce more.  Granted, Burrow being crap and Rodgers getting hurt was unpredictable, but still...

     

    I hate the idea of flex scheduling for Thursday games and MNF, but at this point, the NFL needs it.  This is as bad a product as I can remember.  Thankfully, the NFL fan will watch anything football.  And of course, the Bills are the only team in the AFC that has another team in their division. The Chiefs have no excuse to not get the one seed again.  I was really hoping they would lose last night.  But they have the easier schedule from here on out.  Yes, we play them and can gain a game, but we also have the Eagles and Cowboys to play, but the Dolphins again.  The Chiefs only have to play us and the Dolphins once.  

     

    In any case, just some thoughts

    It's still early. Some teams that are playing badly now will get hot and be imposing in November and December. 

    Captain Andrew Luck makes appearance on TNF post game!

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    10 hours ago, AuntieEm said:

    Much more history than that.  In fact I think Thomas Jefferson  and some early constitution was heavily influenced by pulaski and Kosciusko.  Poland was ruled by a democratic elected  senate made up of Polish nobility.  They elected their king  and any issues of law were  voted on in polish senate of that time.  However any single noble in the senate could veto any proposed law thereby it promoted a very easy way to prevent any legislation  that was beneficial to polish interests  thru corruption and bribery.  Which is why us  required majority of senate to pass legislation.  It's still doesn't negate corruption  but it's not as easy as just buying 1 vote.  It takes a lot more effort to corrupt and prevent beneficial laws  in the US.  So don't know that I'd classify Poland as a doormat to the  US  currently.  Polish  people have always been supportive of independence  in large part being oppressed by Prussian empire on one side and Russian oppression on the other.

     

     

    Look at Tommy Tuberville if you want to see one single US senator blocking action by the entire government and the military.

    THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Ain’t No Stoppin’ Us Now

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Dr. K

    I'm with you on this, Shaw66. Of course none of us know really what's going on in the locker room or in the minds and hearts of the players and coaches. Injuries or terrible luck can change the outcome of games and seasons. But I think there are enough committed and experienced men on this team for them to play with the kind of no-talk-just-play "assassin's mindset" you describe. 

     

    My feeling about this is based on small evidence and nuances. I think they've heard enough talk over the last three years about them as a team and as individuals, and about other teams and players. In the course of those seasons at various times they've been overpraised or underrated. I think--I hope--that in their minds they are done with talking or listening to the talk. They know what it's going to take no matter what anybody says or thinks.

     

    We will of course see if we are deluded about this. It should be an interesting season.  

    • Like (+1) 1

    We need one more superstar

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    9 hours ago, Billzebub said:

    I’m trying to look objectively at our team.  I’m older so I was around for the early 90’s superbowl teams.  We had Andre, Jim, Thurman and Bruce.  Lots of contributors…. Lofton, Talley, Biscuit, Etc.

     

    This team is deep but lacking in high end talent.  Really, we have Josh and Diggs…. Generational talents, after that there is no one on the roster that terrifies anyone.

     

    We need (like we had back then) one or two more superstars .  You want a Super Bowl?  We need a game wrecker, someone like Diggs or Allen that, game plan or not, no one can do a damn thing about it.

     

    My belief is that if any one of the following players contribute in a dominant, game altering way, we will win a Superbowl.

     

    1) Rousseau 

    2)Oliver

    3) Cook

    4) Kincaid 

     

    Will one of them step it up? If so who?

     

    If not, is there anyone else?

     

    Can Allen and Diggs do it alone?

     

     

     

     

    I really like your board moniker. Clever.

    Predict the Final Win total

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Barring another series of injuries and major disruptions like last season, this team will be better than last year.

     

    But the schedule is considerably tougher.

     

    I figure it comes out to 11 wins in the regular season, and a stronger performance in the playoffs. 

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Agree 1

    Boogie traded to Giants

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, dgrochester55 said:

    I am a huge fan of Beane and McDermott overall, but they need to get more out their top 3 round picks.    The return on investment has not been there since 2019.    I know that not every team gets every draft pick, but when late round picks and practice squad pickups are routinely passing your high round picks on the depth chart, there is opportunity to improve.

     

    I am glad that they at least were able to get an extra draft pick out of it if the other option was to cut him. 

    I agree that I'd like to see the picks in the first three rounds succeed more consistently.

     

    But the flip side of this is that it demonstrates that McDermott is not just blowing smoke when he says that who starts for the Bills depends on who plays the best, not on their draft position.  Seems to me that this is the right policy, and that it has to have a good effect on the players' motivation, both the high picks (who can't just assume they will start) and the low ones (who know they have a chance if they outplay the high picks). 

     

    We see that with that relative positions of Benford vs. Elam on the team. Sure, I'd like to see Elam play and play well, prove his value as a first round pick, but clearly on game day McDermott wants the best players on the field. 

    Boogie traded to Giants

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

    I think people are just commenting on this trade because its a tacit admission by the FO that they blew this pick.  The "averages 2 sacks a year" part is exactly why it's relevant.

    Maybe, while acknowledging that it was a poor draft pick, we might give them credit for cutting Basham loose if they have other players who can do what he does. A better move than to fall prey to the Sunk Cost fallacy. 

    • Like (+1) 1
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