Dr. Trooth
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Posts posted by Dr. Trooth
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Much ado over scrub qbs that no one will remember a year from now
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1) what is his football IQ?
2) what did he do in the cone drill & the short shuttle?
3) Is he durable?
4) Does he love the game?
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No. NFL would sooner matchup the world champs with the steelers or bengals, not a perennial bottom feeder.
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PFW used to be in the top few, but they fell off drastically when the main man JB unfortunately passed away. Yes, it's what they do but they don't do it nearly as well, IMO.
As to your examples, Locker was regarded so high because of his earlier seasons and the fact he was on an incredibly inept team as a senior. Tannehill so high because of his pure talent and potential, as he only played QB less than two years (although came into school as a QB). IMO, Tannehill may have been the top choice, over Geno, if he were in this draft.
This would bely the numbers. Based on Junior/Senior numbers, Locker never achieved better than 58.2 % completion rate, avg. yd per completion of 7.1 and a rating of 129.7 (junior year). His Senior stats were worse...55.4% , 6.8, and 124.2. Yet he was selected #8 overall. In contrast, just the senior years, Tannehill - 61.6%, 7.1, and 133.2 (139.7 junior year).... Nassib 62.4, 8.0, and 143.3 (129.9).
As you can see, by the numbers, Nassib rates out higher in all three categories.... clearly. For a number #8 selection, Locker's numbers were, quite frankly, pitiful. He regressed in his senior year. Tannehill, although he was only a starter for a year and a half, regressed in his senior year and, even though he only started for a year and a half was selected #8 overall. In contrast, Nassib clearly "progressed" in his senior year, by a lot, yet somehow that is not factored in to many folks thinking.
I think a bias exists on Nassib because he came out of the Syracuse program, not a glamour program like the other two did. Nor does he have the "perceived gigundo arm, nor meet the 6'4" sexy height requirement, high athletic ability standard, or a 40 yd. speed numbers. Hmmmm. But, clearly he outperformed the other two, and did so with considerably less talent around him than the other two did. There is a reason for that, and perhaps that is very simple... he's better.
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I will say this. PFW is regarded as one of the most credible and accurate, if not the most, source on pro football. That's what they do and they've done it at a high level for decades.
When their consensus selected their top qb coming out of college, they could have selected Geno, Glennon, Barkley, or Manual. But, they didn't. The selected Nassib. That counts fpr something.
Another thing, from links posted on the wall, there are at least two publications that have Nassib as the best player in this draft, regardless of position. I am not aware of any such publication that that makes the same assessment of any of the other four qbs.
I have a theory that these pundits/scouts... whatever, are looking beyond the physical/measureable skillset of the qb and must be able to see another dimension... football intelligence, quickness of reads/info processing, reaction time from read to release, overall ability to read defensive alignments and process quickly, command in the huddle and of an offense. I don't know what it is... fire, heart, toughnes? Maybe it is the numbers the kid put up with easily the least support around him than the others had... and no speed guy or offenive guy with ability to gain YAC. But, whatever it is, they see something that a lot of people don't.
Locker and Tannehill were both selected at #8 in the last two drafts. Nassib's senior stats blow their senior stats away. So,if those two were viable at #8... just based on that, Nassib is certainly worthy selection at #8.
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4.62? Was that with or without meth?
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Hey boys... Brad Jones (ILB/Packers) is still available. 77 tackles/2 sacks last season and only 26 years old. It would seem he'd come at a reasonable salary. Low risk... high reward?
Just sayin.
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You need to check your facts again I think. I just did a simple Google of articles on the Bills cap situation. And found ones such as this -> link to Buff News article
The Bills do not have that much room to make FA signings.
That article was written on 2/13/13. It did not factor in the cap hit for Kelsay plus they also factored in a 1.3 m tender offer for Nelson which did not happen. Also, their cap hit for Fitz this year is only half of what the article stated because half is absorbed in 2013 and half in 2014. So... since that article was published, the Bills have about 11m more to spend than that. I don't know if they also acounted for McGee's cap savings, and I don't know what Manny Lawson's signing does. Also, the Bills reportedly rolled over $10m unused cap space fron 2012 to this year making their cap for 2013 about 131m. They have to spend to 89&% of the $12!m, but they could go as high as the $131m number this year.
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Today Marrone threw a little cold water on the nepotism issue, at least publicly, which was a smart move. When asked about knowing Nassib and if we would draft him, he said something like, "It was like having friends in the NFL, I didn't hire them all."
Nothing said in public, good or bad, about these players until the draft actually happens, should be considered the truth about how anyone feels about any player.
The more I think of it, the more it comes down to one basic thing: Ceiling or scratch the surface. Marrone and Hackett completely changed their offense right before last season. They obviously did not think that Nassib could win games playing the way he was playing in the offense he played in for the last two years. It took a few weeks to really take hold, although they had 1-2 explosive games early, but Nassib and the offense really took off the second half of last year, and that is what vaulted both coaches and player into the NFL.
Now, Marrone and Hackett saw that transformation first hand. They also saw Nassib struggle enough that they had to completely change the offense. So to me, the question is, did they maximize what Nassib could do and do well which allowed him and his team to explode and win -- OR -- did they think "Eureka! This is what we needed to unharness in him and now the sky is the limit with this kid!"
I don't think any one of us here know the answer to that question.
It's also possible that Marrone and Hackett don't know themselves, and are therefore wishy-washy on the subject themselves. This is something that has also come to my mind recently. We all just assume that because they spent so much time with him that they will know what they think of him, but that is really not true. They will know what they think of him as a college player, but they really may not know what they think of him as a pro. We just assume they do.
You could date a girl for three full years and like and perhaps really love her, and still have little idea if you think she would make a great wife you're betting your adult happiness on, which is basically what Marrone and Hackett will be doing.
This is 100% conjecture, but I think there is a very good chance that Marrone and Hackett really love the kid as a guy and leader, and just don't know themselves if he is good enough to be anything more than a back-up in the NFL. They very likely see the same deficiencies that scouts and some fans do.
I know the answer to your question. Nassib was never the problem. In his three years as a starter, he never had a QB rating below 124.0. The offense changed because the supporting cast matured a bit, got a little better and could finally handle it. The offensive line had a lot of injuries in Nassib's junior year and the defense was not that good. Mackey MacPherson (the former HCs grandson) was a smart and savvy center listed at 6'2" 269. He was more like 6'0 250 lbs. and got abused quite often. None of his receivers were fast either. So, Nassib truly did mask a lot of the uglier aspects of the offense. No Cuse offensive players went to the NFL over the past two years, and only Justin Pugh, their LT, will be joining Nassib in the NFL this year. Nassib was the program and did what he had to do to win games with what he had. He maxed what he could do with what he had around him. I don't think too many realize how bad that team was and the problems they had recruiting. And, I think you'll see it this year when you watch Charley Loeb... a lot of folks are going to turn off the TV real quick.
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That a good evaluation there. One thing you said struck me though. That his deficiencies could be "coached up". I see that as a problem considering his former coaches are now here. If these deficiencies can be solved through proper coaching, why haven't these deficiencies already improved or resolved?
The problem I have with Nassib is that 100% of the coaching influence he will get in the NFL he has already had. Will he get the other point of view needed to take his game to the next level? Will he actually grow in the NFL, or will this just be Syracuse continuing in Orchard Park? I see that the Bills have not acquired a QB coach outside of the Hackett/Marrone system. At least a different QB would bring a different skill set, one that could be improved on by Hackett/Marrone.
That's a viable perspective. However, you are assuming the the Marrone & Co. show is going to be a continuation of the Syracuse program. It is not. They are taking it to a whole new level, and they have to. Nassib would be going from driving a Aveo to a Audi. Hackett's offense will have the same principles as it did in Syracuse but with a huge step up in OL protection, speed, weapons than he was afforded at Syracuse. His offense is going to be way more dynamic now, and it has to be because it will be facing top NFL defesnes. Likewise, Hackett has to teach that offensive approach.
If your argument is Nassib is a finished product after his 4 years at Syracuse under Hackett and he's not going to learn or execute anything more, then wouldn't any QB the Bills select be a finished product after 4 years of Hackett's offense in Buffalo? In essence, the Bills would be drafting a QB for 4 years and then a dropoff?
I think all teams first look at the QBs physical attributes as a prerequisite. They all have guns, some more, some less... and the pros know what it takes in the NFL. Mobility is always a question. Some teams demand it others say it aint the defining thing in their offense, thus the Marinos, Mannings, Rivers, Bradys, Warners more than have a place... they are upper echelon. The one thing that is hard to measure is the speed of the QBs brain. How quick their body and arm's response/reaction to a visual. If it could be measured there would be no argument... that's the QB you want as long as he has an NFL arm minimum and is durable and strong. The one thing that jumps out with Nassib is that he makes nano second decisions and the ball is gone in a hurry. The ball is gone from anywhere to under 1 sec. to 3 sec. in 90% of his throws and it is accurate. Hackett is cutting edge and innovative. Nassib is a disciple, a film junky, workaholic, that has little, if any interest outside of football. I don't have any doubt that if those two are paired up again, the chemistry and collaboration is that one component that many overlook and undervalue, and will be the biggest diffrence maker.
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Which one rhymes with Lawson?
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I must have missed something. Remind me again, who is throwing the seed to Cordarelle?
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Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick I was a Fitz guy and wanted him back, but a change was needed here. Can you honestly say Fitz made a difference in a positive way in any game last year? I think any replacement has to be more accurate
- • Wide receiver Donald Jones (New England Patriots) # 3 reciever on a real team, has an undisclosed medical problem. Not a big loss
- • Wide receiver David Nelson Played one game elast year, coming off ACL, But I liked his game and agree this hurts
- • Guard Andy Levitre (Tennessee Titans) Big Loss i agree
- • Guard Chad Rinehart (San Diego Chargers) Backup
- • Defensive end Chris Kelsay (retired) We all wanted him gone, tried hard..little impact
- • Defensive end Shawne Merriman (retired) no impact on field
- • Linebacker Nick Barnett Old and slow, liabilit in coverage
- • Cornerback Terrence McGee should have been cut two years ago
- • Safety George Wilson (Tennessee Titans) split time with Seracy
So I see one and a half losses really. I mean this team was 6-10, with a god awful defense.Did you want them to keep the same guys? Change was not only warrented, but an absolute must
When does the season start, tomorrow?
- • Wide receiver Donald Jones (New England Patriots) # 3 reciever on a real team, has an undisclosed medical problem. Not a big loss
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Just goes to show how incompetent, unrealiable, inaccurate, and lazy some reporters are.
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Yes the media is overhyping the guy with 96td's and 21ints for a career? I am sure it's not the multiple years of success that has him slated to be the top qb. Come on bud, "in your opinion" Geno MAY be a bust.
Trooth and Dog, with all due respect you guys are killing me with this Nassib at 8 talk. If Nassib really is something we should trade down and grab him at 18ish and at least gain another pick. Another classic bills reach in the draft is not what we need IMO.
That's ridiculous. You have no qb... the single most important position on your team. If he's your guy at 18, he's your guy at #8. Why would anyone with any sanity gamble that he'd still be available 10 picks later? With the Jets on the clock at #9, a lame duck coach, and a glaring need at qb, it's a real possibility that they'd take Nassib.
If the Bills and Marrone decide to go this route iy would the biggest mistake ever made by a Head Coach. Why would you bring in a offense built for the likes of college football, with the same QB and expect it to succeed? You'd have to change it up at least a little bit and suprise people. Yea maybe you bring pieces of it, but NFL defenses would eat a college offense up, especially the one Syracuse ran.
Dude... you just lost credibility. It was a pro style offense run at cuse by a hc that played and coached in the nfl and on oc that was an assitant under jon gruden in the nfl and later with the bills. If you want to pick on someone bringing in a college offens, pick on chip kelly. He has zero experience playing or coaching in the nfl.
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Fitz will no doubt make a great back up for a team in the near future but it's funny how we took him from the bengals as a backup, made him a starter and then are going to send him back to the same team so they can make him a backup once again. LOL Bills front office is incredibly inept.
Uh, dude... Fitz was brought to Buffalo as a backup to Edwards. He backed up Edwards in 2009. When Gailey took over in 2010, Edwards won the starting job amd got kicked to the curb after two games. Fitz took over by default and actually earned the job. It wasn't until after he was shown the money that he mailed it in.
Bills saw him as a back up too. I believe it was Ralph that put forth the edict to sign Fitz to a lt contract. From an accuracy and arm strength perspective, in no way does he fit Buddy's proclaimed model of a qb. Fitz signing has Ralph's fingerprints all over it... just like with Rob Johnson.
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All this reminds me of the Brady Quinn discussion a few years ago: Ryan Nassib = Brady Quinn, yes, I said it.
Really? You might want to get the facts straight. Brady Quinn was the product of typical Notre Dame man love by the media and their belief that Charlie Weiss was God, and on the eighth day the belief was that he created Tom Brady. The people that count knew he was a POS... except in Cleveland apparently.
Not too many in the media are hyping Nassib... if anything, they're under rating him. Most all the media has him slotted rd. 2-3. The people that matter know different. Apparently you don't.
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Geno Smith is a BUST!!!! The media is overhyping this guy. Teams are not going to pick this guy at 8.
Oh... I will respectfully disagree. I can easily see Philly snapping him up at #4. It seems to me he would be playing in a shotgun, spread, fast paced offense... which matches his skill set.
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Oh, here we go. I'll repeat this. It gets cold and windy in West Virginia. And I will take Geno's line in that game over Nassib's anyday.
What about in the future? I think you draft for ceiling. If they really think Geno is as dumb or stubborn as a brick after meeting with him, that's understandable (doubtful IMO). But NFL QBs pick up new systems upon arrival to the league all the time. You're right, for plug'n'play, Nassib would certainly be a more seamless fit, but I don't know that he helps this team reach the upper echelon. I'll root for him if he gets here, but I am wary.
And those passes to TEs won't help him if the Bills don't have any. Here's hoping!
But, how do you define "ceiling"? It wiil be different based on what your expectation is of the qb. I don' t think you'd get anyone thinking that Brady had a high ceiling when he came out. His skill set is accuracy and cerebral. He's a student of the game... and he has to be, because he doesn't have much in the physical gifts department.
If I'm looking at the Bills situation and their offense, what the rxpectations are, and knowing what each brings to the table, Geno reminds me of Warren Moon, a damn good qb. But to me he'd have a low ceiling in Buffalo because he is not going to be asked to sling it 60 times per game and run a hurry up spread offense. He's going to be asked to rely on a running game and the mental aspects of the game. He is not going to excell under center and throwing it 20 - 30 times per game, nor is he going to be happy. On the other hand, that's exactly Nassib's game. He thrives at the cerebral aspects of the game. He's a gym rat and student of the game. He'll study and study. In time he'll know and exploit every weakness his opponent has. He'll call a dozen run plays in a row and gash an opponent if he sees something. He will be a coach on the field. You can almost consider Nassib's last two seasons at Syracuse as his rookie season in the NFL because of the playbook and coaching staff.
So when you define ceiling, it is going to vary depending on the qbs skill set and the offense he is going to be placed in. I think a lot of teams and coaches fail on qb selection because they place too much emphasis on the measureable physical attributes and not enough on how the kid stacks up with what you want to accomplish on offense and the kid's ability to grasp it, actually being excited & passionate about grasping it, and executing it.
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I understand that, but I don't think the evidence tells us he is as dynamic a prospect as Smith. If Nassib had led his team even to a Big East championship, I might see what you're seeing here, but he does not strike me as the kind of guy who wills his team to victory. He could be decent and maybe become great in the right situation, which seems like an awful lot to risk the #8 pick on.
Seems like some revisionist history on Gailey / Fitz though - Edwards did "win" the starting job.
I dont't doubt Smith is more dynamic than Nassib for one second. But it isn't about that. Both played in very different systems and both excelled in their system. You could not put Nassib in WV's offense and expect him to be effective. Likewise the same is true of Smith lining up @ qb in Cuse's offense.
Right now, the Bills coaching staff has either completed or is very near completing their playbooks without free agency overwith and the draft 6 weeks away. What do you think is contained within the pages of their offensive playbook? The same terminology and plays as in Syracuse's offense plus some wrinkles that take into account the personnel. The qb is going to be asked to do the same thing that was done at Syracuse. I don't see Geno's skill set extrapolating well to that. If the Bills had a year to develop him before putting him in as a starter it would be different. But, with no starting qb, the Bills don't have the luxury of grooming a qb for a year and it makes no sense to bring in some FA qb and learn an offense for one year and then turn the reigns over to their 2013 draftee. They lose a full year of playing experience and the Bills don't get the full 5 year value they signed up for. In selecting Nassib, the coaching staff gets their guy. They would endorse that move. And, it kind of goes back to the old Parcells addage... that if I'm the cook, I'd like to do some of the grocery shopping.
A lot of fans are quick to say that bringing in Marrone and his college staff is one thing, but it's going too far to allow him to bring in his college players. I say that doesn't make sense. If he wants certain players, I say it's his job and what he believes he needs to succeed is what he believes he needs to succeed. It's his job to lose. Miami did the same thing last year when Tannehill followed his college coach and Chip Kelly did the same thing when he just acquired Dennis Dixon, one of his ex college QBs and said to be courting Dion Jordan... one of his players from last year.
For this Bills team and the current coaching staff, Nassib is plug and play from day one. Sure he needs refinement and will need to adapt to the NFL game speed. But he knows how to read defenses, the right blocking calls, the progressions, the coverages, and exactly when to throw and where to put the balll
I know a lot of fans aren't going to like this, but right now, Ryan Nassib is clearly the best fit for this Bills team, which has a vacancy at qb and needs a starter right away and gives them the benefit of 5 full years out of the gate. Nassib has a mature offensive line, mature backfield and rb weapon out of the backfield that he is going to love to throw to and recognize mismatches. Stevie is going to love Nassib. He is used to throwing to possession wrs that can separate and run precision routes because Nassib had no speed wideouts at Cuse. Tight ends? 27% of Nassib's completions this past season were to tight ends. And most of all, Nassib is going to benefit from a supporting cast the likes of which he's never had or been afforded. The first half of the season will be tough going, but the second half of the season we'll begin to see the progress and maturation.
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I live in Syracuse and have had season tickets to SU football games since 1980. I have seen just about every game Nassib has played. He is not an NFL starter. Take a look at his senior bowl performance. You would have to be crazy to take him in the first round and pass on guys like Patterson, Jordan, Jones, Warmack, etc.
Senior Bowl? WTF? A beauty contest? Playing a meaninglees game with a bunch of strsngers in a totally different offense with a week to prrpare? Running qbs might look sexy on that runway.
The facts are the facts and the numbers are the numbers and the numbers say Nassib's are better than the the previous two #8's. What did Tannehill and Locker do in the senior bowl? Did they even suit up? Geno skipped the beuty contest for a reason... because that game takes a qb way out of his element, skill set, and comfort zone. BTW, Your seasons tix have nothing to do with it. He shattered Big East and many of McNabb's records.... it is ignorant to say he can't play in the NFL. It aint like he's Rob Anderson or Troy Nunes.
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Glad to see stats are entering into this evaluation. Because Geno Smith's stats blow those out of the water.
"So what" is all we have on the nepotism charge? Tell me what happens when teammates begin to pick up on a can-do-no-wrong treatment for the favorite son? The consequences if Nassib comes to Buffalo and fails will be worse than for any other franchise that takes him.
I don't hate Nassib. And if the bills are going to draft him, I hope they do the kid a giant favor and don't saddle him with the expectations that will come from over drafting him at #8, and wait for him until the second round. If he isn't there, someone else like Manuel will be.
I agree. But that's not what I'm saying. Smith worked exclusively from the shotgun. He would not be a good fit in Buffalo with their offense. He'd have to learn 3, 5, 7 step drops... and the footwork to go with it play fakes, reads, etc. It's like taking a square peg and trying to fit it in a round hole. You're taking a pistol, fast paced offense QB and trying to fit him into a pro style offense. I'm not saying Smith isn't worth a #8 pick, he is... just not to the Bills. In fact, I see Smith as a perfect fit for Philly if Chip Kelly will be running a similar offense that he ran in college.
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He didn`t look too good at TEMPLE or Pitt either. He did look Okay against power house StonyBrook.
Dude... you're not helping your case. You aren't even thinking rational. Here are some facts... a comparison of three QBs senior season, two of which are current NFL starters and one who is about to be
QB Competion % Passing Yds. Adj. avg/pass TD passes INT. Rating
Jake Locker 55.4 2265 6.6 17 9 124.2
Ryan Tannehill 61.6 3744 6.9 29 15 133.2
Ryan Nassib 62.4 3749 8.1 26 10 143.3
As you can see, Nassib blows them away... I'm not making this s#it up. Go look it up yourself if you have any doubts.
Locker was drafted # 8 by the Titans in 2011
Tannehill was draftet # 8 by the Dolphins in 2012
It remains to be seen whether or not the Bills will draft Nassib @ # 8 in 2013. But, anyone suggesting Nassib is not worth the #8 pick in this draft after looking at Locker's and Tannehill's numbers is not thinking reasonably. Folks have to get over this "Syracuse" connection crap. Yes, it exists, but, so what... it is what it is and his numbers are there and better than the two preceding #8 picks. Why would you exclude him because of the Syracuse connection? Why all the Ryan Nassib hate?
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Its very likely in my humble opinion Ryan Nassib will get picked 8th overall just to avoid another team from drafting him ahead of us, and the new regime will still be breathing a sigh of relief,
I know I will be,
Lets see who's closer to being correct...
Need vs best player available?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by Dr. Trooth
BPA is not carved in stone. Not every team will have the same player ranked at #8. And as the draft moves on, that bpa gets even more coudy.
For the sake of arguement, lets say the bpa at #8 was a rb. The Bills have two quite capable backs but no qb to steer the ship. Bills select the rb... now you've got 3 capable ba ks, only one tradeable, and no qb. The Bills could trade spiller for a lower #1 pick and perhaps a #2 during the draft, but there is no guarantee that the Bills would get their guy at qb and have to settlle for their second or third choice. Then, there's no guarantee the rb selected at #8 is gonna be better than what you just traded away.
I'm sure the eagles thought Mamula was the bpa, the bills mike williams, whitner, and maybin the bpa. But how did that work out?
This year the bills gotta go qb unless their guy is gone at #8. They dug their hole when they cut fitz without having a suitable replacement. Bpa is in the eye of the beholder and unless he's a consensus once in a generation guy, you take the best on your board at your position of need.