If Denver wins we pick 2 or 3 based on tie breakers with Cinci. If Denver loses we pick 3 or 4 based on tie breakers with Cinci.
Tie Breaker with Cinci is based on the following:
1) SOS.
2) Conference record (We will end up tied here as well)
3) Coin toss
Our opponents currently have one more win than Cinci's opponents, so we need to gain at least one more loss based on the following.
We need Jax to lose. Our man Trent may actually help us here!
Colts to Win
If Denver losses with the above we pick 3.
If Denver wins with the above we are in a coin toss with Cinci for #2.
There are some other scenarios if Jax wins where we can move up to 3, but the big ones are Jax loss and Colts win.