folz
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Posts posted by folz
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Loved watching Stefon and I'm thankful for all he brought to the Bills. I wish him the best and will continue to root for him (except when playing the Bills).
But, this was the right move (whether Stefon was trying to force it or not). The relationship between Josh and Stefon had obviously soured. And they had kind of been co-leaders of the offense for a few years. Tough if your co-leaders aren't seeing eye to eye. This empowers Josh to be THE leader of the offense and the team. He doesn't have to worry about stepping on anyone's toes, forcing balls, etc. It is his team now. And if someone truly is unhappy somewhere, you are better off letting them go before too much resentment builds up anyways. And as much as a lot of us didn't want to admit it at the time, there were obviously issues for Stefon dating back at least to the Cincy playoff game.
We are in a transition period. I wish we could have won a Super Bowl while we still had all of the guys who helped dig us out of the drought and ushered in a new era of Bills football (Jordan, Micah, Tre, Stefon, Mitch, Beasley, etc.)...but we couldn't hold on any longer. The team would have continued getting older and each season the odds of us advancing to the big game would have just decreased. Beane is ripping off the band-aid.
Besides, we all know Big Baller Beane has something up his sleeve. All of the maneuvering and the number of picks we have reminds me of the year he fought into the top 10 for Josh. So, I expect at least one very good WR to be added (wouldn't mind seeing two come in the draft).
Very sad offseason (in the players we had to let go)...but also necessary. We are entering a new era of Bills football...kind of like the third chapter of Josh's career.
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4 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:
Now for the discussion part. It’s not an overly optimistic highlight reel. He was clearly great in college and Beane wanted this dimension for the team. However, for a pass catching TE, he had numerous drops and very rarely broke tackles. His TD production was -in a word, disappointing. But the pure talent was on display for most of the season. With Knox taking a pay cut recently, Dalton is now clearly TE1. But he can and needs to improve. He is a willing blocker though his relatively slight frame doesn’t scare anyone and is more of a ‘get in the way’ type blocker than physical blocker. While he made numerous eye-popping catches, he underwhelmed in contested catches where his size should have been a benefit. He displays deft footing but he doesn’t use this to break tackles when defenders dive at his lower legs. It was obvious by seasons’ end that if a defender was closing in on him, he was going to be tackled -even though there were opportunities to challenge the tackler with changing speed or direction, stiff arming or lowering his shoulder -something Knox is proficient at.I’m hoping these were discussed with him in his end of season meeting with coaches as aspects he needs to improve on. Bulking up a bit is essential, but also hand fighting, better body control to fend off would-be tacklers near him and more gumption/desire to finish the play in the Endzone.
Yes, he set team records for catches by a TE and quickly became a starter. But to know the full history of the team, is to know TE has always been an afterthought. I can count on 1 hand our very best TE’s, from Warlick to -well, Knox..The potential is certainly there, but the necessary upgrades to his skills are on him to develop. To me, he’s kinda like a ‘golly gee! This is great playing in the NFL!’ kid. I’d like to see more of a determined approach to his craft to realize his capabilities at this level. He isn’t there yet.
What say you?
I usually agree with you on a lot of things Chandler, but I think you're being a bit too pessimistic when it comes to Kincaid.
First of all, he was just a rookie. I think that we all hope and expect him to progress and get better from his rookie year. Most players take a big leap between year one and year two if they have enough talent to make it in the league...and I think Dalton proved he is a guy that will make it in the NFL.
He also had Dorsey as an OC for half the year (where the offense struggled quite a bit) and then had to switch to a new coordinator mid-season. That could have hindered some of his growth/progress.
As others have noted, I don't think drops seem to be an issue with him. No one is going to catch every ball. But according to stats, he had 4 drops (on 91 targets/73 receptions) on the year and an 80.2% catch rate. That's actually very good for a rookie and no where near the struggles that say Gabe and Knox have had..
I only noted maybe 3-4 contested balls in that video that maybe he could have caught. Don't really see this as a major issue either. Something he can work on, sure, but not a problem by any means at that rate.
The TD total was definitely disappointing, but we'd really have to look at the whole season to see how he was used in the red zone, how many red zone targets did he get, etc. to determine if it is a Dalton-thing or a scheme-thing. Maybe Knox got more red zone plays when healthy due to size and previous high TD totals, etc. I do expect to see that TD total climb in the future, but I almost think that that is more on Joe Brady (scheme) and Josh Allen (trust) than it is on Dalton.
BUT, the points I really wanted to make were these:
29 of Dalton's 73 receptions went for a first down. That is 40%. Forty percent of his catches went for first downs. That is huge for the team...keeping the chains moving, something we have missed since Beasley left.
311 of his 673 yards came AFTER contact. Yes, almost half of his yards were YAC. And that is with the fact, as others have pointed out, that many of his catches were either short over the middle, screens, or outlet passes---all of which are plays where the defenders (especially over the middle) are very close and ready to make an immediate tackle. They didn't design a lot of plays for Dalton to be streaking down the seam or sideline, where it is easier to run away from a defender and pick up a lot of RAC.
And let's compare his rookie year to the rookie year's of some recent great Tight Ends:
TE ROOKIE SEASON STATS
Dalton 73 recs. 673 yards. 2 TDs. 80.2% catch rate. 9.2 yards/rec. 29 first downs. 1 fumble.
Gronk 42 recs. 546 yards. 10 TDs. 71.2% catch rate. 13 yards/rec. 30 first downs. 1 fumble.
Kelce 67 recs. 862 yards. 5 TDs. 77% catch rate. 12.9 yards/rec. 46 first downs. 4 fumbles. (Note this was year 2 for Kelce, he sat his entire rookie year.
Kittle 43 recs. 515 yards. 2 TDs. 68.3% catch rate. 12 yards/rec. 24 first downs. 0 fumbles.
Dalton had the most receptions. Only Kelce had more yards (in year two, of course). Dalton had the best catch percentage. Only Gronk, really, had more first downs.
So, the only place where Dalton fell behind is yards/rec. and TDs (well, basically only to Gronk)---and I think both of those things are more dependent on scheme and opportunity than Dalton lacking anything.
I think the only reason people may think that Dalton didn't live up to the billing enough (other than his TD totals) is because of the year that Sam LaPorta had. But LaPorta is the exception to the rule, having had one of the best rookie TE seasons in the history of the NFL. And again, that isn't just skill, but also circumstances, situation, and opportunity. LaPorta had 120 targets compared to Dalton's 91...and Sam played 83% of his team's snaps, while Dalton played 63% of his team's snaps. If you pro-rate Dalton's stats to 120 targets, it would look like this in compariosn.
Dalton 96 recs. 887 yards. 3 TDs.
LaPorta 86 recs. 889 yards. 10 TDs.
So, again, it is only the TD totals that would separate them.
Dalton had an excellent rookie season for a TE and I think we all know there is still a lot of room for growth and development (such as in the blocking department, etc.), but I see no reason why Kincaid can't or won't continue to improve and be a big part of the success of this team. Nothing from his rookie season makes me worry about his not reaching his potential and being an important player for this team for years to come.
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Watching his short highlight clip, he looks to have some speed (to chase down QBs) and very good instincts (dissecting plays). Seems to be more of a power/bull rusher, didn't see much variance in his pass rush moves from those handful of clips, but his profile said he can bend the corner too.
Of course the highlights don't show us plays where maybe he made a mistake or missed a tackle, etc. But, for a guy whose name I didn't even know until today, and who will be deep in the rotation, looks like a decent signing to me. Hopefully he's ready to take the next step in his career. 🤞
6'5" 254 lbs. 5th-year player. 27 years old. Drafted by Philly in the 7th round out of Stanford, picked up by Washington mid-rookie year after being waived. Spent 3-1/2 years with the Commanders. Only 14 starts in his career (but 57 games played)---his snaps counts in Washington over the last three years were 35%, 36%, and then 45% last season.
80 total tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 20 QB hits, 7 career sacks, 2 passes defended, 3 fumble recoveries (1 TD).
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Seven year vet. originally a 4th rounder to Philly. 6' 4" and 221 lbs. Big kid. 30 years old. Has played for Philly, Miami, Las Vegas, and then Atlanta last year.
Career: 131 receptions for 1,691 yards and 10 TDs.
Best year was in Vegas two years ago when he had 690 yards and 4 TDs on 57 receptions.
Special Teams Ace. Was a special teams captain for the Falcons last year
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On 2/8/2024 at 11:10 PM, Brand J said:
Lamar didn’t play against the Steelers in the final regular season game, so he was 6-2. But check this out…
Ravens 25 Texans 9
Ravens 28 Browns 3
Ravens 38 Lions 6
Ravens 33 49ers 19
Ravens 56 Dolphins 19
Optics matter. Of their 13 regular seasons wins, 9 were by double digits. Of the eight teams in NFL history that had 9 wins by double digits or more, all had made the Super Bowl and only one of those didn’t win.
The Lamar led Ravens bludgeoned teams and that’s why he’s MVP of the regular season, because he played phenomenal at times. It wasn’t because “let’s give the award to him because he’s Black.” I’m surprised so many of you agreed with that take.
The average number of touchdowns for the last 10 MVPs is 44 TDs in their MVP season.
Lamar had 29 total TDs this year. Josh had 44 TDs this year.
I don't care about race (it's more the bias against Josh than race being a factor for Lamar), and I understand why people voted for Lamar. But, I can also disagree with their decision.
Let's face it, there was no clear-cut MVP this season. Josh was doomed by his interceptions and the irrational media bias against him, even though the TDs sooooo outweigh the interceptions.
And with only 29 TDs on the year, it shows that the Baltimore's defense was more of the MVP than Lamar was. The MVP is an individual award, not a team award.
Josh had 628 yards more passing than Lamar, while Lamar had 287 more rushing yards than Josh. So, Josh still had 341 more yards from scrimmage than Lamar and 15 more touchdowns. Their team's were only 2 games apart in the final standings, and Josh had a slightly better record against playoff teams than Lamar.
As far as total turnovers, Lamar had 13 and Josh had 22. But, there is always an element of luck to turnovers. For instance, Lamar fumbled 11 times...but only lost 6. Plus, how many near picks did he have this year that didn't get caught or whatever, where it seemed every freak batted-ball for Josh this year, some defender made an incredible play to make the INT.
Still, we are talking about a 9-turnover difference between the two. Even if every one of Josh's turnovers turned into a TD for the other team (which they didn't, not by a long shot), that would equate to 63 points. The difference between their TD totals is 105 points. Plus, none of Josh's turnovers occurred in the 4th quarter. He wasn't losing games due to his INTs. In fact, most games that he had an INT, he also had his team in the lead in the 4th quarter (all but the Jets game). So, again, the INTs didn't hurt the team as much as they might appear to have.
Lamar had three games with zero TDs and eight more games with only one TD. That's 11 games, or 69% of the season. So, for almost 70% of the season, Lamar had only one or zero TDs per game. Is that really an MVP?
The Ravens only scored 32 points more than the Bills this season. Across 17 games that equates to 1.8 points more per game (not a huge difference---if you are trying to use point totals for games as a plus for Lamar).
Lamar accounted for 42.9% of his team's points. Josh accounted for 68.3% of his team's points.
As I said, there was no clear-cut MVP choice this year, but still, imo, Lamar was the wrong choice.
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Pros:
He still had 1,395 yards from scrimmage this year, with a 4.2/rush average, and 12 TDs.
He has been an absolute beast over the last 6 years, averaging almost 1,576 yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs per season.
He's been durable. Other than missing the back half of the 2021 season with a broken foot, he has only missed 3 games over the other seven years of his career.
Cons:
He's 30 years old.
He has 2,030 rushes over his career. He has averaged 306 carries/year over the last 5 years. That's a lot of mileage on those tires.
He may still cost a pretty penny.
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On 1/23/2024 at 8:30 PM, CincyBillsFan said:
Then you're missing out on a man telling the truth here. I get that Dunne has a "rep" but check these out and tell me he's wrong:
Those suffering from Drought Brain — terrified of another dark age — will soon nestle into another blanket of excuses and swiftly demonize any criticism of team, of coach.
None of this happens if the Bills — ownership on down — operate with Allen at forefront of mind. He’s the most important person in the building. He’s the employee with the richest contract in Buffalo sports history. That’s what blew the minds of so many players and coaches I spoke to for The McDermott Problem. Those who’ve been around McDermott every day describe the coach as a simpleton when it comes to this position, as if he never understood that Allen was the No. 1 reason this team is a Super Bowl contender.
As I write this column, McDermott is holding his season-ending press conference. He says the biggest reason for their turnaround was cutting down turnovers. Let’s hope he doesn’t try to neuter Allen’s arm this offseason after taking aim at his legs last offseason
Dude, you call this TRUTH?
Once again, it is more of the same from Dunne. No intelligent discourse, just opinions and name-calling---supposedly backed by a few disgruntled, former employees. If this passes for truth in today's media, then we all need to turn off our computers and televisions. Geesh!
I don't have a problem with people wanting to move on from McDermott and explaining their reasons why, but whatever you think of him as a coach, he is a good man, and this is not the way you go about criticizing the job he is doing. It is obviously personal for Dunne. I mean, "a simpleton"? Someone may not make a great NFL coach, but you aren't getting to that position in the first place if you are a simpleton. Come on.
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May God bless you and your family with the love and strength to get through this difficult time. ♥️
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4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
This is a guy pursuing clicks rather than logic.
This guy makes mistake after mistake. He says that "the last three Super Bowl-winning QBs have been in the top five in INTs," and he shows a graphic where he says that Mahomes was tied for 4th last year. Um, no, Davis Mills, Dak, Josh, Derek Carr and Cousins all had 13 or more. Mahomes was in a four-way tie for sixth, putting him in the top nine. Not 4th.
The same graphic says that Brady was tied for 3rd with 12 the year he won the SB. Yeah, um, wrong again. He also was tied for sixth, though with three other guys.
And why the sudden switch to Super Bowl winners? We're talking about MVP winners, aren't we? The year Brady won the SB, he wasn't the MVP. Rodgers was, throwing 5 INTs. The next year, when Stafford was the SB winner, Rodgers was again MVP. This time with 4 INTs.
So the last three MVP winners had 5, 4 and 12 INTs.
Josh has 18 this year. In that group of four, see anything that sticks out?
Here are the INT totals for the last 10 winners of the MVP:
2022: 12
2021: 4
2020: 5
2019: 6
2018: 12
2017: 8
2016: 7
2015: 10
2014: 5
2013: 10
Again, Allen has 18.
His INT numbers do not fit with this group. No wonder the guy in this video suddenly and without explanation switches away from SB winners and completely botches the INT rankings of two of the three guys he cites on top of that.
It's filled with logical problems and he is spinning like a dreidel.
He cites the opposing argument, "But his interceptions directly cost the Bills wins." And his riposte is to cite EPA per total plays. But you can have a very good EPA per total plays and still have cost your team wins. The stat doesn't really address the argument he's trying to knock over at all.
Yet he immediately goes on to argue that his EPA data shows that he can't have lost games.
Sorry. Very little logic here at all. Clickbait.
Allen has had overall a top five season. Which is damn impressive. We're lucky to have him. But arguing he's the MVP is greatly stretching it.
-Only 9 of Josh's interceptions came in the 6 Bills' losses. So, he threw an average of 1.5 INTs in the Bills' losses (none in the 4th quarter).
-Nine of Josh's INTs came in wins (so, they obviously didn't affect the outcome of those games).
-Only in three of the Bills' losses did Josh throw more than 1 pick (2 in each of those three games). Having one pick in a game isn't usually the deciding factor, unless it is at the wrong point in the game (which it wasn't for Josh). So, at best, you could say Josh's interceptions affected 3 games this year. But again, outside of the Jets game on opening day, Josh still had the team in position to win those games (the defense just didn't hold).
In Baltimore's three losses, Jackson has thrown three interceptions. So, 1 per game (not that different than 1.5).
And since you brought up former MVP stats (INTs in your post), let's look at MVP TDs. Here are the TD totals for the last 10 MVPs
Year Player Total TDs
2022 Mahomes 45
2021 Rodgers 40
2020 Rodgers 51
2019 Jackson 43
2018 Mahomes 52
2017 Brady 32
2016 Ryan 38
2015 Newton 45
2014 Rodgers 40
2013 Manning 56
2023 Jackson 29
2023 Allen 44
So, you can say no MVP has had as many INTs as Josh in the last 10 years, but you can also say that no MVP had as low of a touchdown total as Jackson in the last 10 years. Why are Josh's INTs an issue, but Lamar's low TD total isn't? Especially when TDs are 7 points each time, while INTs may turn into 7 points, but maybe only 3 points, or zero points if the defense holds. So, TDs still outweigh INTs. Brady in 2017 is the only one close to Lamar's low TD total, but he had 900 more passing yards in 2017 than Jackson did this year. Even if you add in rushing, Brady still had more than 110 yards more than Lamar, 3 more TDs, and one less INT. Every other MVP had anywhere from 9 to 27 more TDs than 2023 Lamar. Do you know what the average TD total is for the last 10 MVPs? It is 44.2 TDs. Right where Josh is at (44) and 15 more TDs than Jackson this year. Even in Jackson's 2019 MVP season, he had 14 more TDs than he has this year.
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3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
So, losses against bad teams are OK, because being beaten by bad teams is OK?
Also, I think I've come up with a brilliant new quotation here, check it out:
"Wins and losses are not a QB stat, they are a team stat." Brilliant fresh new idea, right? Oh, not so fresh? Fair enough, but it's still right on target. You get it, I know, as you're using the slashes there, "Josh/Bills," but it's still being ignored in a lot of arguments here.
Lamar has been more consistent this year. Which is really big.
My post was in response to someone who said Lamar crushed playoff teams (as his argument for why Lamar over Josh for MVP). So, that is why I pointed out their records vs. playoff teams, to show that Lamar doesn't have that as something over Josh. Josh did very well (actually better) against playoff teams---even if it's a team stat really.
Of course, losing to bad teams does not look good. But, as the OP's video pointed out (we are talking for individual MVP, not team here), all but the Jets opening day loss, Josh put the team ahead in the 4th quarter, but the defense was unable to stop the opposing team from scoring and taking the game. So, you can't really pin those losses on Josh from an individual standpoint. And Josh never blew a game in the 4th quarter with a turnover and has the lowest negative/bad play impact of any QB in the league (despite the turnovers).
And of course, wins and losses are a team stat. But, why do the Lamar supporters get to hold up his team's record as a reason he should be MVP (when his defense carried many of those wins), but with Josh, if I bring up wins against playoff teams, all of a sudden wins are a team stat and can't be used in Josh's defense? Again, are two more regular season wins for Jackson (and his defense) the deciding factor here? If wins are a team stat, then those two wins more than Josh shouldn't be the deciding factor, right?
As far as consistency, I will grant you that Baltimore as a team was more consistent than the Bills as a team this year. But Lamar?
Jackson had 3 games with 0 TDs (rushing or passing), and 5 games with only 1 TD (rush or pass). So, 8 games with 1 or 0 TDs. That's almost half the season. Are those MVP worthy stats?
Lamar had 7 games with fewer than 200 yards passing.
[To include rushing]
Lamar had 5 games under 250 yards from scrimmage
Lamar had 10 games under 300 yards from scrimmage
Josh had 1 game with only one TD (he did not have any zero TD games).
Josh had 4 games with fewer than 200 yards passing.
[Below are same number of games as Lamar]
Josh had 5 games under 250 yards from scrimmage.
Josh had 10 games with under 300 yards from scrimmage.
People also bring up that the Ravens were blowing people out, so the Ravens took their foot off the gas in those games leading to lower stats for Lamar.
Well, Baltimore had 9 blowout wins (2 TDs or more).
The Bills, despite their inconsistency, had 6 blowout wins.
So, that's only maybe 3-5 quarters of football all year more than Josh that Lamar "didn't need to do much."
Keep them coming fellas. Convince me where Lamar's season was far superior.
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2 hours ago, miketysonslisp said:
Ravens had the most wins while playing in the winningest division in the NFL. They literally blew out playoff caliber teams week in week out. Lamar didnt need 50 tds they were already up on their opponents by the 4th q. We barely scrapped into the playoffs and played a lighter schedule. Give jackson his due. We have another MVP we are eyeing.
While the Ravens did have a harder overall schedule (according to wins and losses by opponents), Josh (the Bills) had a better record against playoff teams.
Josh/Bills were 5-1 against playoff teams, with the only loss being to Philly in OT, a game that the refs stole from Buffalo (and should have been a win).
Lamar/Ravens were 6-3 against playoff teams---you could subtract one loss due to Baltimore sitting Jackson and others in week 18, to make a 6-2 record vs. playoff teams for Lamar.
So, Josh won 83.33% of games vs. playoff teams (as I said, it should have been 100%), and Lamar won 75% of games vs. playoff teams (not counting week 18).
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25 minutes ago, Billl said:
Buffalo lost multiple games this season because Josh gave them away. The same can’t be said of Mahomes. Lamar is going to win the MVP this season, and he’s going to deserve it. That doesn’t mean he’s the best QB in the league. If it were a “best player in the league” award, it would go to Mahomes or Allen every year.
I guess you didn't actually watch the video.
The video shows pretty clearly that the bold statement in your post is incorrect. You can really only put one game on Josh, the Jets on opening day.
Also noted in the video...
Do you think Mahomes shouldn't have won the MVP in 2018?
Because Pat had 21 turnovers that season, yet was still the unanimous MVP. Josh had 22 turnovers in 2023.
I'm not saying Josh should absolutely win it, but I don't understand the people that think Allen shouldn't even be in the race with Jackson. It's amazing to me how many people (fans/media) still seem to have a bias against Allen. Josh accounted for 308 points this season. Lamar accounted for 203 points this season. That's basically one more touchdown for Josh in every game this year.
Josh Lamar
Total Yards 4,830 4,499
Passing Yards 4,306 3,678
Rushing Yards 524 821
Total TDs 44 29
Passing TDs 29 24
Rushing TDs 15 5
Completion % 66.5% 67.2%
Total Turnovers 22 13
Yes, Lamar played one less game than Josh, but if you added one game at his season averages, he would still be 50 yards behind Josh and still way behind Josh's TD totals. You could also argue that Lamar had 9 less turnovers than Josh. But, even if each of those extra turnovers turned into a TD (which they didn't), that would only be a 63-point differential---while Josh's extra TDs (over Lamar's number) equates to 105 points. The difference in completion percentage is negligible. They are the #1 and #2 seeds in the AFC. So, is it simply because the Ravens have two more wins? Does that make an MVP? Otherwise, I'm having a hard time seeing why Lamar is the clear-cut leader. What makes his case so superior to Josh's case?
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2 hours ago, Utah John said:
Considering all the injuries, looking at statistics from the regular season is not really definitive. (You listed the London game against the Jags as an away game but the NFL considered it a home game for the Bills. Probably the best way to handle that game is to not include it in the stats.) I think the last month of the regular season is a better indicator than what happened in September and October, but even that is suspect because the teams' makeup is so different now. What matters is what the players and coaches involved tomorrow bring to the field.
I hear you...
-though there is no way the Jax game can be called a home game for the Bills (no matter what the NFL called it). The Bills were not at home, they had to travel/deal with time change; while the Jags play in London every year, had already been there for two weeks (no time change issue/no travel, days before the game), and had just played a game in that stadium the week before. Even though the Jags weren't home either, they definitely had a home field advantage, as it were.
And ok, down the stretch:
The Bills have played six games since the start of December and are 6-0, with 101 points scored against (16.8/game), and a +53 point differential
KC has played seven games since the start of December and are 4-3, with 120 points scored against (17.1/game), and a +21 point differential
The teams had two common opponents over that stretch (The Dolphins and the Pats)
Bills were 2-0 with a +13 point differential
Chiefs were 2-0 with a +29 point differential
Current Injuries to starters or role players (and I'm not counting players like Tre and Matt Milano because their injuries were too long ago to be discussed as far as who the teams are now or who they have been down the stretch):
[snap counts in parentheses]
Bills: Benford (76.87%), Davis (82.99%), Rapp (39.27%) [OUT]; Bernard (93.19%), Douglas (46.92%), Johnson (89.29%) [QUESTIONABLE]
Chiefs: Wanya Morris (30.01%), Derrick Nnadi (45.77%), Skyy Moore (43.81%) [OUT]; Justin Ross (12.04%), Kadarius Toney (20.35%) [QUESTIONABLE]
No question, we are missing more KEY guys (more snaps) than the Chiefs. But, if Bernard, Douglas, and Johnson can go (and aren't hampered too much), then I think we are in pretty good shape. I think Dane and Kaair can fill in fine for Benford against Kansas City's wide receiver corps (which is also a little banged up), and we can get by without Davis and Rapp, as the team has already proven to be able to do (though it would be nice to have them---Davis in the run game (not just as a receiver), and Rapp to help with Kelce and to lay some lumber).
But, if we are also missing any or all of the other three, it will be a tougher go, no doubt. I think we are the better overall team (and have been down the stretch of the season), but we are dealing with more significant injuries than the Chiefs are.
Make of that what you will.
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10 hours ago, Special K said:
Maybe I am mistaken, but I thought I heard one of the talking heads say that the Chiefs D is way better at home than they are on the road.
Sort of like the Browns D.
The Chiefs played 9 games at home and 8 games on the road this season.
At home, they allowed 148 points to teams with a combined record of 82-71 (9 games). An average of 16.44 points per game.
On the road, they have allowed 149 points to teams with a combined record of 57-79 (8 games). An average of 18.63 points per game.
So, there is a small difference between home and road for the Chiefs, but considering the teams they played at home were better than the teams they faced on the road, that does increase the gap a bit (as far as them being better at home than on the road).
Quaterbacks the Chiefs faced this year (KC's outcome in parens): Jared Goff (loss), Trevor Lawrence (win), Justin Fields (win), Zach Wilson (win), Kirk Cousins (win), Russell Wilson twice (win & loss), Justin Herbert (win), Tua T (win), Jalen Hurts (loss), Aidan O'Connell twice (win & loss), Jordan Love (loss), Josh Allen (loss), Bailey Zappe (win), Jake Browning (win), Blaine Gabbert (win).
For comparison, the Bills played 8 games at home and 9 games on the road this year.
At home, the Bills allowed 118 points to teams with a combined record of 65-71. An average of 14.75 points per game.
On the road, the Bills allowed 193 points to teams with a combined record of 71-82. An average of 21.44 points per game.
So, the Bills' defense definitely seems to be better at home, though their home opponents did have 6 less wins than their away opponents.
Quarterbacks the Bills faced this year (Bills outcome in parens): Zach Wilson (loss), Jimmy Garapollo (win), Sam Howell (win), Tua T twice (two wins), Trevor Lawrence (loss), Tyrod Taylor (win), Mac Jones (loss), Baker Mayfield (win), Joe Burrow (loss), Russell Wilson (loss), Zach Wilson/Tim Boyle (win), Jalen Hurts (loss), Patrick Mahomes (win), Dak Prescott (win), Easton Stick (win), Bailey Zappe (win).
-Only 11 points separate the two defenses (Bills/Chiefs) over 17 games. So, the Chiefs allowed 0.64 points less per game than the Bills.
-As far as opponent win percentage, the Chiefs opponents were a combined 139-150, while the Bills' opponents were a combined 136-153...so only 3 games different.
-The level of QB play that each team faced is about equal (no clear advantage to either team, imo).
-The Bills and Chiefs shared nine common opponents this season, with their records against those teams as follows:
Chiefs 8-3 Bills 6-6
-Both, overall, ended the season at 11-6
-The Bills did score 80 more points on offense than the Chiefs did this season, leading to a better Net Point differential (Bills 140/Chiefs 77).
Everything stacks up pretty evenly. The Chiefs have a bit of an advantage in common opponent record and the Bills have an advantage in net points.
So, yes, it may just come down to home field advantage and Bills Mafia, as the Chiefs are slightly worse on the road and the Bills are a bit better at home.
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2 hours ago, Logic said:
The thing that stands out to me is that our passing offense simply looks to be "behind the times".
When I look at the passing offenses of Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, Kyle Shanahan, Mike McDaniel, Bobby Slowik -- so, basically, all of the Shanahan coaching tree guys -- I see creativity, cheat motions, orbit actions, variety, legal pick plays, and receivers who are schemed wide open.
When I look at the passing offense of Dorsey and now Brady, I see more or less static formations, less creative personnel usage and deployment, less variety, and much less of receivers being so open that you wonder "how the heck did that happen?". To be clear, it's not that there's NONE of this stuff. This offense does, at times, show some of these things. It's just that if you watch it over the totality of a whole game, and then compare it to the Texans, Rams, Packers, etc, it just doesn't seem nearly as dynamic and modern.
I don't believe this is something that can be fixed in-season. I'm hoping the Bills do a thorough offensive coordinator search in the offseason. Let Brady interview and give his vision for the offense going forward. If he wins the job, then so be it, but don't just hand it to him. I want more modernity and creativity in the Bills offense. I want to see what Josh Allen would look like in a truly forward-thinking offense that makes life easier on him.You did see the two TE TDs in the Wild Card game didn't you? Both wide open. Knox himself said he couldn't believe he was so wide open (by play design vs. what the defense was showing), and Kincaid said they practiced his TD all week and AJ Klein told him how cool it was to see that play translate from practice to the game.
Yes, we know that the offense struggled at times this year and WR separation was a bit of an issue, but the offense seems to be hitting its stride now. In the last two games, Josh has averaged 281 yards, 2.5 passing TDs, and 75% completion percentage. That's tough to do if your receivers aren't getting any separation.
1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:We have no #2 WR.
You're getting 0-0 now regularly from that position.
Past that, Harty is in for a few pays and you don't see him again, Isabella got 1 target last week.
This is the problem. The line is there. The QB isn't changing. You have a competent OC. There are no dependable WRs past Diggs and Shakir.
This started in 2021 when Beane signed Emmanuel Sanders. That marked the end of trying to find another top-flight WR to pair with Diggs. Three seasons later and we're still in that boat. Kincaid mitigates this some, but there is no size or speed at WR.
AMEN - YES
You guys are way too hung up on #2 receiver. Do I expect the team to address the WR position in the off season? Yes. But you are too focused on who is catching the ball and what their supposed position is.
In Week 18, three players had more than 84 yards (Diggs, Shakir, Kincaid) and Josh connected with 8 different players.
In the Wild Card game, Josh connected with 7 different players, and 4 players had over 30 yards.
Does it really matter if, behind Stefon, it is Kincaid, Knox, Harty, Cook, Davis, or Sherfield catching the ball? It's the same number of yards whether the player is considered WR #2, WR #3, WR #4, TE #1, TE #2, etc.
No, we don't have a Chase/Higgins or Hill/Waddle duo (frankly, very few teams do), but we have plenty of skill players that can get the job done. Look at Kansas City. Is it a problem that TE Kelce has been their #1 or #2 receiving target for the last 6-7 years instead of a true #2 receiver? Over the last 3 games, Kincaid has averaged 77 yards per game, with one TD. Shakir has averaged over 58 yards/game over the last three, with one TD. And that is with our #2 receiver Gabe Davis out the last two games. I honestly don't care that much if my #2 WR on paper doesn't have a great stat line, if my next two targets are averaging 135 yards and 1 TD per game (combined). Add in Stef's yards and whatever Knox, Harty, and Cook add in and we are fine.
Again, what does it matter who is catching the ball, or what their perceived position is, if Josh is still lighting it up and we are winning?
Save worrying about the #2 WR for the offseason.
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This thread reminds me of the thread about Dalton Kincaid not being used properly, posted immediately after he had a 4 for 87 yard day with a 50-yard reception.
-We got an early lead, so we didn't have to pass as much this game.
-We did also have 179 yards rushing.
-We were milking the clock for much of the 2nd half.
And yet, Josh still connected with seven different receivers on the day, went 21 of 30 (70% completion), and had three passing TDs on top of his rushing TD.
We scored 31 points (with 2 missed field goals) against a good defense.
In Week 18, Josh threw for 359 yards, connecting with 8 different receivers, went 30 of 38 (78.9 completion %), and had 2 passing TDs (along with his two picks).
So, remind me again, what is the complaint?
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I honestly think the Bills are the best team left (even with the injuries). The injuries hurt , but we have Josh Allen, a deep roster, lots of playmakers, and they are more battle-tested than any other team at this point. The Bills are 6-1 against playoff teams this year (should be 7-0, if the refs didn't steal the Philly game from us). Baltimore, I don't know, they still just don't scare me that much for some reason. They are 6-3 vs. playoff teams, which is good. They lost to Pittsburgh twice (though week 18 they obviously rested players). And I know they are a better team this year, but the last two times the teams met, McD was able to have an answer for Jackson. The Niners are a very good team and I like Brock, but I don't think he is a QB that can really put a team on his back at this point (which I think you need to go on serious run for the Lombardi). I may have the Chiefs a bit low, and you can never count Mahomes out, but I feel like their lack of playmakers on the offense really hurts them.
Bills
Baltimore
Niners
Lions
Chiefs
Houston
Green Bay
Bucs
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6 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:
That isn't a juke...he's slowing as if to slide...7 yards from nearest defender...then starts running again...how is this a juke? Who is he juking...the guy 7 yards away?
You obviously don't watch much Bills football and Josh Allen. See if you can find a highlight reel of Josh's runs, you will see that was a run all the way (on the TD), Josh didn't think about sliding or fake sliding there, he was thinking more yards. Everyone who watches Josh on a regular basis knew that he was just trying to avoid the defender (juke him) by slowing down. Josh's jukes don't look like a running back's jukes (quick turn on a dime or quick shimmy), they are more changing angle with a shoulder shake, or stopping and starting, or attacking the defender.
And the later slide was an obvious slide and not late. We could debate on whether the refs should have thrown the flag (was the hit late/was it too bang-bang to throw the flag), but that's not on Josh. And of course the player who gets hit is always going to feel that it was late (that's human nature)---ergo Josh calling for the flag to be thrown.
As others have said, it is funny for a Chiefs fan to be coming to a Bills board to complain about something that his own QB does all of the time. So, it's ok for Mahomes to do that stuff whenever, but Josh (when he doesn't even do anything wrong) is some sort of crybaby or favored by the league or some garbage?
I really can't understand people's continuous need to try and tear Josh down.
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13 minutes ago, BigDingus said:
Yeah... still lost on the thread title.
Read through the whole thread trying to figure out how it went over my head, but I guess I'm too derpy to get it.
1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:So...has the "Shame on us" in the topic title been explained yet?
Asking for myself.
It took me a while to figure it out too. I think he is saying shame on us board members for not yet having a thread to congratulate/thank the Bills fans that did go to the game.
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1 hour ago, wppete said:
We should’ve won the Philly game. We let them have that one
Let's face it, the refs let them have that one.
First half, when the Bills were rolling and Philly was struggling, the refs called 10 penalties on the Bills and only one 5-yard false start against the Eagles. And the Eagles weren't flagged again until :38 seconds left in regulation There were so many blatant Eagles penalties that they didn't call. And many of the Bills penalties were BS or ticky-tack calls. And then there was the Eagles fumble at the end of the game that they called an incomplete pass. Game would have been over right there with a Bills win if they made that one call correctly. And with all of that, the Eagles still needed to hit a miraculous 59-yard field goal to stay alive.
We may not have gotten the W in the win column, but we won that game.
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33 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:
In all the aftermath I haven’t seen much talk about Beane. Specifically Rasul Douglas and now Harty have helped keep this thing going. I’m sure that there has been a few other plays/players that have contributed this year but those two in particular really stand out.
Linval Joseph was also a great mid-season pickup. He really helped to hold that line together until DaQuan could come back.
And how bout them linebackers drafted last year. Bernard has had a monster year and Spector came in last night for Dodson and didn't seem to miss a beat.
The 2022 draft isn't looking too bad right now, even with Elam not making the grade yet:
Kair Elam
James Cook
Terrell Bernard
Khalil Shakir
Matt Araiza (😪)
Christian Benford
Luke Tenuta
Baylon Spector
5 out of 8 players made an impact last night.
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2 hours ago, BillStime said:
I sincerely hope that these folks are active here 2billsdrive
Now that is a true Bills fan, sporting his C.J. Spiller jersey. Love it!
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23 hours ago, ngbills said:
He is actually in the middle to bottom in nearly all metrics. That is the difference. Not that he is not the best yet. He is being used in the most conservative way possible and has way less flash or impactful plays than other teams TE's. You said, truth is he is a promising rookie - I am on board with that. I am not on board with the he is already elite talk. There is a ton of pushing on how amazing of a season he had and I just feel there are many players that given the opportunity could replicate his numbers. Not his fault that the Bills made him a safety valve and he did what many would do with that role. If he was turning all those dump offs into 50 yards then we should be talking about how elite he is.
I honestly have not heard anyone say that Kincaid is already elite. I think we all hope he can get there, but no one is saying his rookie season was on par with a veteran Kelce or Kittle season, etc. You are the one who brought up those comparisons. He broke a Bills record and people celebrated it. That's it. First of all, it's just a Bills record, not an NFL record; and secondly, we all understand that a lot of his receptions were possession receiver type receptions. Just because people congratulated him on the record, or are positive about his future, doesn't mean they think he is already elite.
Also, we are Bills fans, shouldn't we be happy when one of our players accomplishes something? Even if it's not really a huge deal. Why is it these days that if you say something positive about a Bills player, there is horde of posters who will jump in to tell you that no, in fact, that player sucks or isn't living up to his draft status.
Plus, the impatience of current NFL fans is frustrating. When I first started watching football, very few rookies even started their rookie years (outside of a few QBs and RBs maybe). A lot of players used to sit and learn for two or three years before they got their shot. I understand that it is a different league now, but there is still a learning curve for college players coming into the league. Just because many rookies start now and maybe 5-10 have excellent rookie years, doesn't mean that every guy should be able to come in and go off his first season. Plus a lot of that has to do with coaching. We know that Sean would rather not throw guys in right away, but work them in slowly, etc. When did people start expecting every first or second day pick to automatically be an All-Pro their rookie year? It is still an extremely rare thing (like 1-2 guys per year out of 250 draft selections and how many undrafted guys).
Give Dalton time. He is having a very nice (not elite) rookie year and he will only get better. DK is just not a problem with this team right now. Also, you mentioned about splash plays in one of your posts (specifically saying he's not getting TDs or first downs). Yes, he only has 2 TDs on the year, but 26 of his 66 receptions have gone for first downs. That's closing in on 2 per game (and 40% of his receptions). That is obviously impactful for the team, even if he isn't catching 40 yard passes down the seam yet (though he did have a 51-yard post reception last game).
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I don't completely disagree with your premise, I think we all hoped for a little more consistent (or splashy) production from Kincaid across this season (again, that's not on Kincaid, but more about his number of opportunities).
BUT, as others have said, it seems like a strange thing to be complaining/worrying about right now.
First of all, he is a rookie, and you are comparing him to the best in the league currently, such as George Kittle. Let's look at George Kittle's and some other TE's rookie stats in comparison---the current 5 best TEs in the league their rookie years.
Kincaid: 66 rec. 83 targets. 589 yards. 2 TDs
70 rec. 88 targets. 626 yards. 2 TDs (Kincaid's stats prorated to 17 games)
Kittle: 43 rec. 63 targets. 515 yards. 2 TDs
Kelce: only played in one game as a rookie. 2nd year stats below:
67 rec. 87 targets. 862 yards. 5 TDs
Andrews: 34 rec. 50 targets. 552 yards. 3 TDs
Waller: 2 rec. 6 targets. 18 yards. 1 TD
Goedert: 33 rec. 44 targets. 334 yards. 4 TDs.
Plus, I'm not sure what all of the other player's situations were their rookie years, but Kincaid was coming to a team that already had an established TE (though he missed 5 games this year), lots of other weapons (Diggs, Davis, Cook, Knox, Shakir, etc.), and an offensive coordinator that was in over his head and then fired mid-season. Yes, LaPorta is having a great rookie season, but he also has 47 more targets on the year than Kincaid. If Kincaid had 47 more targets, his yards would prorate to 803 yards (LaPorta has 860 yards). He does have 7 more TDs than Kincaid, but he is obviously more of a target in the red zone as Detroit doesn't have a lot of production behind St. Brown. So, could Kincaid have been targeted more or differently at times, sure, but I don't see it as an issue of any kind right now, especially after a week where he had a 51-yard reception and a stat line of 4 for 87 yards.
Kincaid is fine. Kincaid was a good pick. He will develop and how they use him will develop as the relationship grows. Nothing to see here.
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Has the final four replaced the SB as your most enjoyable sporting event!?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by folz
March Madness is by far the best sporting event every calendar year.
To me, the Super Bowl has become almost unwatchable (NFL playoffs are still good---just not the SB). And for the first time in 48 years of watching the NFL, I didn't even watch the Super Bowl this year. I knew exactly how it was going to play out: SF would have a late lead and KC would come back and win. There was no way that they weren't going to have a Mahomes/Kelce/Taylor Swift threesome love-fest/celebration...and I didn't want to see it.
Now if I had to choose between a March Madness game and even a regular season Bills game, I'm watching the Bills. And of course, if the Bills were in the Super Bowl, that would be the clear winner.
But yes, March Madness (and/or the Final Four) is better than the Super Bowl at this point, imo.