Reddy Freddy

I know there are other draft prediction threads out there, but last year I offered up a $25 gift card to Amazon.com to anyone who correctly predicted the Bills top 3 selections in the draft. No one hit all three last year, although one person got 2 of 3. The same prize is on the table for anyone who can do it this year. I'd offer more, but I'm not exactly a rich guy. This year it figures to be a little easier, since all three picks are likely to be in the top 50. Some basic rules: 1. Simply give me three names (first and last). If the three names you give are the same as the three names of the Bills' first three picks, you win the gift card. 2. If more than one person gets it right, the gift card will go to the person who was the first to post their picks in this thread. 3. Please enter only once. If you need to change your picks, please clearly indicate in the thread that you are forfeiting your previous entry and submitting a new one. 4. Sorry, but no prize for getting 2 of 3, or if one of the three names you give is the fourth or fifth guy the Bills draft. 5. In order to win, the three names you give must be the same as the first three players the Bills draft, regardless of whether they trade up or down in the draft. I'll start with my projection: Michael Oher, Larry English, Andy Levitre Good luck to everyone and GO BILLS!

I agree. The most I'd give up for Gonzalez is maybe a 3rd or a 4th and 7th or something. But as others have pointed out, there were reports that he vetoed any deal to Buffalo. Not sure if having T.O. now might make him reconsider, but I doubt it. He wants a ring.

Why not just make overtime one 15 minute quarter? Or even a shortened quarter, like basketball? There'd be far more ties I guess.

No, that part would have been fun. The boredom would have set in soon after their next game. Ya know, in the playoffs.

Fair points. He could get us back on track I suppose. But man, he plays a conservative, BORING style of football.

Count me among those who thinks Marty is the ultimate re-tread who is solid in the regular season but lousy when it counts (5-13 career record in the playoffs). Also, I don't know if I can take a coach who is MORE conservative than Jauron.

I don't understand why there is no love for Mangini. I guess it's just that people need time to pass after a coach is fired before they begin to think he would make a good coach again (see Schottenheimer, Marty).

Murra is very angry and defensive. I think it's a rare affliction known to affect Bills fans called sevenandnineitis.

Wow, you're an angry dude. Since I think your logic is flawed and your general demeanor is foul, I think I'll compliment you on your avatar. Swingers is a classic. Who's the big winner today? Murra! Murra's the big winner!

Let me spell out the arguments for you again. Read slowly if it helps. Three years ago (2006), Mangini joined the Jets and turned the 4-12 team he inherited into a 10-6 playoff team with very little elite talent. The following season (2007) they regressed badly, at least in part because of Pennington's injury problems. Regardless, 2006 was a bad year for Mangini and the Jets. This year, they improved 5 games, about back to where they were in 2006, finishing with a 9-7 record. Mangini is still a young coach with things to learn. But he has head coaching experience and is still known as a bright, young (37 years old) defensive mind. He knows the AFC East very well. He strongly dislikes Bill Belichick and, presumably, the Jets now and would probably take great pleasure in beating both teams. He has firsthand knowledge of both franchises' personnel and coaching staffs. Not long ago he was referred to as "Man-genius" because he was so successful at a young age. That success has been tarnished somewhat by a bad 2007 season and a bad last 5 games in 2008. Still, considering the alternatives we have to choose from if Jauron is fired, I think it's worth taking a shot on a guy with his bloodlines, upside, knowledge of the division, and record of 2 winning seasons in 3 years with the Jets. Would I rather have Cowher? Yes. Would I rather have some other re-tread like Marty Schottenheimer? No.

My friend, I think you're holding the stats too closely. The only bad season he had was last year when Pennington was injured and he had to try to win with Kellen Clemens. They went 4-12. This year they improved to 9-7. Not too long ago they were 8-3 and considered a favorite to go to the Super Bowl. He is getting fired based largely on the fact that their lack of top talent and Favre's age caught up with them down the stretch.

This is an absolutely ridiculous statement. You can make an accurate assessment of a coach's ability on the basis of 3 games? It's very difficult to make such an assessment in 3 seasons!

Like it or not, the Jets do not have much better talent than the Bills, if at all. I would go through a position-by-position comparison but I don't feel like taking the time. I am not enthralled with Mangini. I would love an available coach who has a long record of hugely successful winning seasons in the NFL. Unfortunately, that list is pretty much limited to 1 (Cowher), and he might be a little tough to get. I'm trying to be realistic while at the same time getting a guy with some upside. Mangini is only 37. As we always hear around this time of year, Bill Belichick was fired in Cleveland and Mike Shanahan was fired in Oakland. Between them, I believe they have 5 total Super Bowl rings now?

I know everyone and their brother is prematurely counting on Jauron being fired, and even more prematurely predicting or advocating for his replacement. So I guess I'll go ahead and join the mix ... Eric Mangini. 37 years old. 2 winning seasons in 3 years with average talent in New York. Just a short time ago was known in NY and around the football world as Mangenius. Enemy of Bill Belichick. New enemy of the New York Football Jets. Seems like the vindictive type and probably would like nothing more than two play both of these enemies twice a season. Certainly knows the AFC East, with intimate knowledge of the Pats and Jets. Probably would not come with a huge price tag. Lock it up.

It won't be popular on this board -- which is full of bitter, disgruntled Bills fans -- but everything you said in this post is 100% correct.

I know many believed this was the case, but until now I was unaware of confirmation, other than Chris Mortensen's speculation. I also found it curious that ESPN is reporting this now of all times.

Another silver lining will be the end of these "The Bills have no chance to make the playoffs! Be realistic!" posts. How tiresome. Everyone knows the Bills have virtually no chance. But it can be interesting to some people to see what needs to happen. Get over it.

To me, the most frustrating thing about our playoff drought is that in many of the years we have finished in the 7-9 to 9-7 range, which has dropped us out of the top 5-10 draft picks. So, for example, we get a Marshawn Lynch instead of an Adrian Peterson (not that I don't like Lynch, but Peterson is a potential Hall of Famer if he stays healthy). If we're gonna suck, I wouldn't mind sucking just a little bit more to get an elite player in the draft.

Strange how sometimes spelling, grammar and punctuation can tell you all you need to know about a person.

Yikes. A tie? Yikes.

Does anyone know what needs to happen for us to stay alive for the playoffs for the week? Please, keep the "act of God" comments and the Jim Mora reprisals to a minimum. Obviously, we need to win and have those ahead of us lose, but I was wondering if anyone had a more specific set of conditions to stay alive. Something like "Bills must win, Team X must lose, and either Team Y or Team Z must lose. Hey, if there's a chance, then there's a chance, even if it's one-in-a-million. And I suspect the odds of us staying alive at least for this week are a lot better than one-in-a-million. And besides, I seem to remember a playoff game in January 1993 where the Bills faced some pretty long odds ...

Also, since it seems this comes up every year, I want to stress that the second tiebreaker to break a tie within a division is record vs. common opponents, not conference record. http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Good analysis. At the moment, it appears our path of least resistance is to concede the division to the Jets and one wild card to the Colts and simply focus on beating out the Pats, Phins, and Ravens for the last wild card. This actually isn't hard to see, if we take care of business in our division games. For example, we could actually lose to Denver or San Fran, win the rest of our games, and still claim the final wild card if: the Pats were to lose to the Cardinals (and the Bills of course), and the Ravens were to lose to Wash, Pitt, and Dallas (all of which they are likely to be the underdog), and Miami were to lose to the Jets (and the Bills of course). Under the above scenario, the Bills, Pats, and Dolphins would all be 10-6 and the Ravens would be 9-7. The Bills would win the tiebreaker over the Dolphins based on superior division record (3-3 vs. 2-4) and I believe we would beat the Pats based on a better record vs. common opponents, although I would need to confirm this.

This seems plausible. I disagree with the conventional wisdom that 10-6 is unlikely to get us in. If memory serves, a very low percentage of 10-6 teams miss the playoffs, although I know the Browns did last year. Count me among those who believe we can lose to either the Broncos or 49ers and still make the playoffs. It doesn't look like that now, but a lot can change in 5 weeks (as the Bills found out). Also, remember that ties are settled first within the division, then between other conference wild card contenders. In other words, if the Bills, Patriots, and Ravens were all to finish 10-6, we would need to beat the Patriots in the tiebreaker first, then beat the Ravens.

Is there anyone on this team who you are more happy to watch succeed that Fred Jackson? The guy does it all. Way to go Freddy!