Chilly
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Posts posted by Chilly
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I have us at 4-12. Front 7 looks good, will struggle to score points and stop the pass.
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The eye test is useless in comparing QBs in preseason. Peterman plays with different players, against different players, even the play calls are different on both sides. To me the 2nd and 3rd defenses look a lot more vanilla than the defense Tyrod went against. That's not an indictment of Peterman, I like him a lot, but let's be realistic about what we're seeing. Peterman has developed well throughout training camp, he didn't look this good at the beginning. I'm in no hurry to rush his development by throwing him in the middle of a real game. At least give him half the season to sit on the bench and watch film, and then if things aren't going we'll see what he has.
+1. He's not ready at this point and likely will not perform as well as Tyrod did when under pressure last season. I'm also not convinced Tyrod will as well either.
I think we took any chance these QBs had of performing decent when we traded away Sammy. I'm curious to see what Peterman will grow into, but it's a horrible proposition for his development to throw him in at this point. Pressure will destroy a career and he's not ready.
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You're right, I forgot I said Yikes, but I didn't really make any comment other than the obvious pressure was bad that anyone with half a brain would see.You actually didn't just post 2 pictures without comment. In the picture of Peterman you specifically mentioned that it was against 2nd and 3rd stringers followed by a "yikes". The Tyrod picture, of 2016, didn't need any comment because it was good. You are clearly trying to imply something whether you actually come out and say it or admit it.
If Tyrod's numbers against pressure for this pre-season aren't available then just say it. Otherwise it looks as though you're pushing an agenda.
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So .... the Bills backups are better than the other teams backups?
Ok. They both sucked. Let's go with that.
They both absolutely did
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Yup. Personnel was completely different for both teams. And that leads to a difference in play calling and things the teams are working on.Apples to apples Chilly.
Was the offense different from QTR 1 and 3 or 4?
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Again. This season. The Roman offense is gone.
Do you believe we've seen the total Dennison offense through two preseason games?
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Bravo.
We are discussing 2017 preseason. 🙄
Under Denisons offense.
Show us the 12. I know you can do it.
I posted two images without comment. What do you think my opinion on these players are?
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What are TT's stats under pressure?
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Vs2 nd and 3rd stringers in preseason. Yikes.
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I think our D will feel better, given the DL is going to be freed, but I'm not sure we'll get the results we want with our god awful DBs.
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Naked City Pizza is owned by people from Buffalo and show the games.
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Imaginative post. Nice job.
It would be great, though, if we could stretch the field both horizontally, as in the traditional WC offense, and vertically at the same time. Ideally, the offense forces the D to defend the entire field.
Plus Kubiak's O loves the deep play action pass, so that's not entirely true.
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Matthews spotrac market value $10M a year projected . Not bad if his knee is ok.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/jordan-matthews-14451/market-value/
Due to stats that way outweigh his value. This is why the article I posted earlier said there's a disconnect between what his agent will want and his actual value
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Gaines had the fifth worst season of the past decade last year. He was the Rams #4 CB this year.Looking at career stats between Matthews and Watkins is pretty interesting...especially looking at games played, catches and TD. He also seems to be a great teammate and blocker in the run game. Wentz was pretty upset by the trade.
Gaines and Darby have similar career stats. Gaines was much more productive in college and always has shown the ability to be around the ball. That fits better.
Very subjective until games are played but seems like upgrades with these new coaching staff and scheme.
J Matt wasn't going to beat out Agholor and was going to be the eagles #4 this season according to SiriusXM. He has severely overinflated numbers from the Chip scheme and has only had success in the slot.
This isn't even close to the same talent level.
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We have unknown talent. Zay Jones and Matthews should be able to play outside.
Matthews isn't unknown. He's terrible outside.
Im real curious about how he even fits in Buffalo. Anquan Boldin and rookie Zay Jones are already slot guys. Thats where Matthews has played in most of his career. Maybe the Bills will try him on the outside, but he hasnt had success there in limited playing time. In 2016, Matthews played on the outside for 32.9% of Philadelphias offensive snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Matthews was targeted 40 times when not playing in the slot. He had 20 receptions for 222 yards (a paltry 11.1 average).
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They should be laughing at us. We gave up our #1 WR and #1 CB for heaping piles of ****.
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We don't have any outside receivers anymore.
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This analysis fits in well with my theory of why they think Sammy was expendable, wouldn't hurt the offense in 2017 and build draft equity for the future.
I honestly am surprised it's not a bigger gap. If we look at just the past two years (after Marrone), it's bigger without Sammy, but about 20 yards per game, and still the same number of points.
I fully expect McCoy to have a season like Arian Foster did for Houston in 2011.
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In an attempt to "move on to 2017" in my mind and away from what I feel is a monsterous downgrade at WR, I wanted to understand what our offense looks like now in a historical context.
Using pro football reference, I put together splits of what the Bills offense looks like with/without Sammy since he joined the team.
The Obvious
- The Bills Passing Game Suffers
The Less Obvious
- The Bills make up the difference in the Running Game.
- The Bills actually average 2 points per game more without Sammy.
- The impact on total yards is non-existent.
With that in mind, I started to think about what this offense could look like in context of our coaching staff. Has Rick Dennison had any offenses like this?
In fact - he has. Here's Dennison's ranks as an OC:
The 2012 and 2011 Houston offenses look like good comparisons. Digging into these, the 2012 Houston offense featured an amazing Andre Johnson, so that's not a great fit. While Andre Johnson *was* on the 2011 Houston Texans, he only played 7 games and had less than 500 yards. This sounds like a great season to compare our offense against.
Here's what the production looked like for the 2011 Houston Texans:
Arian Foster had an amazing season that year, with Ben Tate also contributing pretty solidly. I think our offense this year could be pretty similar to that Houston team.
The 2011 Houston Texans ended up 10th in points scored, 13th in yards scored, and combined that with the #4 overall defense to be a 10-6 playoff team.
I don't believe that our defense is good enough at this point to be the #4 Overall Defense, but this comparison does give me hope that the team can still be competitive in 2017 even with the drop off from Sammy to Jordan Matthews.
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No one can justify these trades, so without knocking them publicly the only thing the employees can do is say "I trust management."
I'm with you. For the first time in probably 10 years i'm actually OPTIMISTIC about the future of the Bills. It's kind of refreshing.
The tears of the "satisfied with the status quo" crowd baffle me.
I would agree with you if we were actually tanking. But we traded away our 24 year old WR and haven't traded our 29 year old star RB. Makes zero sense to trade away the one asset that could potentially help a young QB long term.
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Yes, it is a plan.
Those of us who realize that TT is NOT the answer understand that the aging vets and oft-injured "Stars" aren't taking us to the promised land. We realize that these guys realize the same thing and we're HAPPY about it.
It's a PLAN. After years of rudderless band-aids, some of us are happy to see an actual direction.
If this is the plan they'd trade McCoy immediately. It's the thing that would make today's moves better. I'm not convinced it is the plan yet.
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These are moneyball moves-
Let's say Matthews is 85% of the productivity of Watkins at 60% of the cost, plus a second rounder
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Gaines is 85% of Darby at 75% of the cost, plus a third rounder
That's all this is
That's a lot of made up percentages for two bad players.
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Last season, E.J. Gaines allowed a 141.7 passer rating on 72 targets into his coverage -- 5th-worst of the past decade (min. 50 tgts).
2016 TALENT VS. 2017 TALENT
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Worse:
RB
OL - I believe the scheme switch will have an impact.
WR
CB
Offensive coaching
Better:
DL
LB
Defensive coaching