PBF81
-
Posts
5,339 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by PBF81
-
-
2 minutes ago, BananaB said:
Beasley, Brown and Diggs have all had the best years of their career with Allen. What are you talking about?
If you want to join in, I'd highly suggest reading what I wrote to start this first.
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
I find it hard to believe Allen goes from 37 to 36 to 35 to 29 and then 25 passing TD's. This for a QB who has four straight seasons of 40+ total TD's. The Bills offense is still moving the ball (4th in total yards) and scoring too (6th in points). They had 451 points scored. Only a slight dip from '22 and '21 at 455 and 483 points scored. If the Bills are still moving the ball someone is going to be scoring. It was likely an anomaly that Allen had 15 rushing TD's this last year. Expect a return to less than 10 rushing TD's and more than 30 passing TD's.
I found it difficult to believe that he was below 30 this season. I'd have wagered a grand prior to the season on 30+.
As a team, our offensive scoring was slightly less under Brady. Under Brady, our offensive scoring would have been good for 8th in the league on average using his 7 games in the regular season. That's underachievement. Over the last three games of the season we averaged fewer than 20 ppg. Much as with Dorsey over the first four games of the season, we came out swinging, sort of, against the Jets, Eagles, and Cowboys,
Now our biggest scoring WR is gone, we still have no #2 of the caliber that everyone's claiming we need. Diggs, apparently, is in decline. Why, at this point and things unchanged, would our scoring be better than it was last season? Who knows, maybe we'll be #1 in scoring this season. Right now things don't seem to be aligning in that way however.
1 minute ago, BananaB said:You keep going on about the TD stats and having a good QB makes a big difference
OK, then why haven't any of the other WRs that we've picked up since Allen's been here improved as such?
Seriously, why not?
-
1 hour ago, FireChans said:
John Brown. Cole Beasley.
You nailed them. Beasley, he's the only one with a pronounced increase however.
Brown, not so much although it's debatable. Improved, yes, but to suggest that it was significant in his case may be a bit of a reach. His two best seasons, one here ('19), one in Arizona ('15), were all but carbon copies of one another.
In AZ he posted 1,003 yards and 7 TDS, here he had 1,060 yards and 6 TDs.
On a per start basis, here vs. elsewhere, he averaged marginally more, but not significantly more. If we applied the same percentage increase to Samuel, Samuel would go from being about a 500 yard & 3 TD WR to a 700 yard and 4 TD WR. Not much more. We'll need more than that from somewhere.
Otherwise, and thanks for answering, but if those are the only two examples, that's pretty much the point. Consider all of the other WRs that we've picked up that have done nothing, or even worse than they've done elsewhere.
It's hardly a guarantee either. Everyone's saying the exact same things about Samuel that they said about Harty last year. It's typical.
8 minutes ago, BananaB said:Do you actually think Gabe would have the same results playing with some of the below average QBs Samuel has played with?
Is that the point that I've been making?
-
3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
And someone will.
Going by your logic we should expect Allen to have his lowest passing TD total since 2019. I don't think that is how it works. The TD's will go to someone else. Not necessarily one player in general. But I find it hard to think he will throw significantly fewer than the 29 he threw last year. Last years 29 TD passes was certainly the anomaly to the three previous seasons with 37, 36 and 35 TD passes.
Using your logic we should expect Allen's passing TD's to take another big dip down to about 24 or 25 on the season. That is not a bet I would want to make.
Well, if Diggs is really finished like everyone here assumes, we'd better have an answer better than Samuel or yes, that's exactly where we're headed. Allen was down about 20% as it was this season from prior years.
Hopefully we draft a WR in round 1. Also, I'm not on the train claiming that Diggs is finished. IMO it's how he's used. In fact, someone posted a piece recently, forget where, it may have been linked on the front page, that Diggs was used in slot nearly 50% of the time. If that's true, and there's no reason to consider the guy's research false, then that would certainly explain the dropoff in production from Diggs.
Complimentary Football as McD likes to call it.
We can expect Kincaid to pick up some of the slack though, but he's not a WR.
-
2 hours ago, SoTier said:
I enjoyed Davis' long TDs as much as any Bills fan but it's very hard to deny the balls he dropped and how he so often failed to get open. What makes your TD/reception stat irrelevant to determining a receiver's play is that it ignores how many times the receiver was targeted, made catches or dropped the ball. I think that for receivers, TDs per target would be a more useful stat than TDs per catch. Of course, stats can't measure clutch plays, and Davis failed to make too many clutch plays to be worth what the Jags paid him.
Oh, I forgot to include other facts.
Davis has logged a TD for every 11 targets.
Samuel every 22 targets.
Someone's going to have to step up
1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:It wasn't a simple break of his tibia...
It was a tibial plateau fracture... pretty common for the recovery to be non-weight bearing for 6-12 weeks post op.No weight at all for 8 weeks is not common. Particularly for someone with an athletic/fit build.
But that's fine, well see either way. Presumably your implication is that he'll easily be back at 100%.
If we've learned anything as football fans over the years, isn't one of those things along these lines.
Look at Tre. Who among us thought that he would suck as bad as he has. He was tops in the league.
-
2 hours ago, SoTier said:
Miami did not get stronger. They lost their best defensive player plus some other key players and have replaced them with guys at as "sketchy" talent/experience wise as the Bills signees. A wash.
How did KC get better? They had to trade away their DB Snead for next to nothing because of cap issues. If there are questions about the Bills signing Samuel, then signing Hollywood Brown is just as questionable. Pitt will be improved if Russell Wilson can regain his Seattle form, but the Jests have put all their hopes on a forty-one-year-old QB coming off an Achilles injury who is flirting with politics and who will play behind a newly assembled OL filled with older guys or guys coming off injuries or both. Baltimore, Cincy, and Cleveland are in the same boat as the Bills, KC and Miami: since they're paying franchise QBs, they have limited cap room so they can't make tremendous improvements via FA. The draft is probably much more crucial in determining which of the top AFC teams improve than FA.
I enjoyed Davis' long TDs as much as any Bills fan but it's very hard to deny the balls he dropped and how he so often failed to get open. What makes your TD/reception stat irrelevant to determining a receiver's play is that it ignores how many times the receiver was targeted, made catches or dropped the ball. I think that for receivers, TDs per target would be a more useful stat than TDs per catch. Of course, stats can't measure clutch plays, and Davis failed to make too many clutch plays to be worth what the Jags paid him.
Davis' drops were bad for one season. Discounting that singular season, that everyone made a mountain of a narrative over, do you know what Samuel's drop % is compared to Davis'?
Davis' drops other than in '22 are quite average in terms of drop %.
You may want to look that up before making comments like that.
Otherwise, once again, the comment misses the mark and still does not address the issue. You'll see, again, this season quite likely, ... unless Samuel becomes a scoring machine.
Hope he does, but I wouldn't put money on it.
-
7 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:
USC qbs are all busts.
It can be added that for a QB whose only bowl game win was in the Alamo Bowl over a team with a siht defense, three seasons ago, he might want to keep his mouth closed, at least until he's actually drafted.
I've never understood this level of hype in the guy. Reminds me of how the hype was for Young, Russell, and Newton.
22 minutes ago, Udubalum07 said:When I saw this, I thought obviously fake. It doesn't change the fact that he seems to be a head case.
He is not doubt talented, but when I read the article about him writing messages in nail polish for different games, I thought huge red flags in terms of being a leader of men.
He's a lumberjack and he's OK ...
-
A reasonable guess would be that it's a meme created by a Bears fan.
-
3 minutes ago, mrags said:
Yeah I know quite a few people personally that have opted to rescind their season tix. Along with hundreds of others that I see on social media, etc.
100% agree. I can afford the tix now easily. It’s nothing to me really to buy the tix since 2006. When I moved into the clubs it was a bigger nut but it’s still not horrendous.
they kind of are like a religion to many in the area. It’s a place of worship almost on Sundays. Let’s face it, many or most of us plan our lives and obligations around the Bills.
Aftermarket may be the way to go for people with the new stadium. I feel like those bucking up for PSLs will make some money off the secondary markets if they choose to incur that huge nut off the top. But eventually it’ll pay off for them.
it has 100% gotten out of hand. It’s not the good old days anymore. Technology, inflation, crippling debt, you name it. Things are not close to as simple as they used to be.
I agree on the cost. It’s why i am open to what all the seats are going to cost in the new place. We’re seeing the most expensive seats and psls now that there will be in the stadium. There will surely be more affordable seats. Probably cheaper than what I pay now (minus the PSL). And I’m open to that. But like I said many times before. If I’m going to pay thousands more, I want to be comfortable while I do it. If I’m going to be wet and freezing my @$$ off while paying more than I do now, I’ll just stay home. It’s one of the reasons why I wanted a dome. You could be in the cheapest seat in the house and still be comfortable.
we’ll see how things play out. It’s the early stages of the whole process.
Well summed up!
-
In 7 seasons they should have done something besides merely signing Diggs to begin with. Same for the OL and the (up until last year) hodgepodge way they've pieces our OL together.
It's become an issue and it's their problem to solve. Let's see how they do.
It's quite possible that it's the overall methodology that's the issue.
Just sayin'.
-
6 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:
What's the point?
Uhhh, scoring maybe. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
until they start determining game outcomes by yardage gained ...
Samuel, Mr. 3-TDs/season over 7 seasons on average, on two different teams, isn't likely to turn into a scoring machine now.
He may be a great addition, who knows now, but it's pretty likely he's not going to go from averaging a TD every 15 catches to a TD every 6.
Call me nuts, but for a WR that's averaged just over 3 catches/game, on a team where no one even knows the right for for him, it seems unlikely that'll change significantly.
He's not going to be averaging 8 catches/game either.
Which begs the question, who's going to be doing the scoring on the receiving end. I suspect that Kincaid will pick up much of that slack.
-
7 hours ago, mrags said:
As @Just Jack and I have talked about. These club seats they are offering right now with the absolutely ridiculous prices are basically their answer to the smaller suite holders that are in the current stadium. There’s going to me half as many suites, the club seats with even 20k PSLs will be more like the smaller/lesser suites in the current stadium. The every day Joe that has clubs seats like me and @Just Jack aren’t their target audience right now. They’ll get to us with their options later and it won’t be 15-20k for those PSLs. IMO.
No doubt. They're still going to price people out though. Many of the people commenting appear to simply be fed up with the overall situation and are already preempting it. They're not club level STHs.
I haven't been a STH in years, and there's nothing like going to a live game, but when paying for live games means dropping money that could go towards other significant expenses or leisure options besides a few hours, that's when things change for me.
Love the Bills, but it's not a religion and if my status as a fan becomes determined by how much money I drop to go see them, well, something's amiss.
Other than for an occasional aftermarket ticket purchase for myself and whomever wants to go with me to a good game, I'm fine with watching on TV either at home or at a Bills Backers bar. I mean heck, for less than a hundred bucks I can eat and drink myself silly at a BB bar.
IDK, seems as if it's all gotten out of hand the last decade or two.
It's a business, but the cost for the live product has simply gotten to the point where I'd rather do other things with my money. And that's apart from the fact that I would never pay a PSL merely on principle regardless of the cost.
-
1
-
2
-
-
14 minutes ago, mrags said:
Isn’t there a Sabres message board? Why is this in the stadium construction thread?
Speaking of stadium construction, I looked at the Bufnews piece and comments on the PSLs and they're taking a beating.
The next month or two is going to be very interesting.
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
I do think it's largely a matter of circumstance
It's why Knox's outsize TD year that got him paid just wasn't a very convincing argument imo
There are a lot of TDs to go around here and they've got to go somewhere
Well, OK, other than for Diggs, name the other WRs that we've had here that have played significantly better than they have elsewhere?
-
25 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:
Not so.
Gabe Davis has scored 7, 6, 7 and 7 TDs in his four years here.
We have a couple players with extended stretches that match or exceed this:
Dawson Knox:
2021: 9 TDs
2022: 6 TDs
Stephon Diggs:
2020: 8 TDs2021: 10 TDs
2022: 11 TDs
2023: 8 TDs
You missed the point entirely.
It's about efficiency, not gross numbers. That should have been clear.
Again, we'll see. I'm way past believing how players that our staff is familiar with, typically from Carolina, are all of a sudden after years of mediocrity, are going to shine here for some inexplicable rain.
Same for Harty & Sherfield last year at this time.
And Knox is a TE, and other than for his '21 season, he too has defined mediocrity, at best, on a good day, averaging 350 yards and 3 TDs per season otherwise in four other seasons.
-
23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
No, my argument is that losing a high TD/rec guy to be replaced by one w a lower ratio isn't necessarily an indicator of anything significant
So you're essentially arguing that a WR's ability to find the end zone is insignificant then. Well, OK. I suppose there's at least some reasonable debate in there.
IMO it's relevant, particularly on a team like ours where receiving TD producers seem to be rare.
Let's hope he has his best season ever.
-
4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
This reminds me of my younger 'n dumber days when ...
Nah, I'll pass. Not much in the mood for an ad hominem exchange here.
I've already explained some of the other stuff.
Sorry that you think that the singular analysis is FUBAR. I don't think so. So we'll simply have to agree to disagree.
Otherwise, I'll look Forward to Samuel's career season forthcoming.
-
20 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
😂😂I don't think you can use 'Tds in losses' for Samuel and 'walks away w playoff TDs' for Davis simultaneously
So your argument is that Samuel is a clutch player though?
Seems like another good but far from great and certainly not a game-changing signing. We'll see what he contributes.
-
5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Not sure TDs/reception is the best way to compare Bills players to others imo
This offense generates a lot more TDs than your average
There isn't a player on our roster, during McD's entire tenure, that even approaches Davis' ability to score TDs.
The best we have is Diggs and he's averaged a TD every 12 catches.
In the playoffs Davis walks away with it.
It's not an end-all-to-be-all indicator, but none are. But swapping out an enigmatic WR that doesn't fill a need at Slot but also isn't truly a #1/#2 split type either should at least be a concern.
We do this every season, everyone we sign is going to make some kind of difference or something. Samuel's best season ever, which was four seasons ago, had him log 851 yards and 3 TDs and 36 1st-Downs on 77 catches. Two of those three TDs were in losses and the other was in a shutout/blowout. That doesn't exactly scream out that he's a clutch player. It's always a flag too, two things actually, when people go back to a players' draft status after two contract terms (7 years) in the league; but moreover, anytime we grab someone from Carolina because one of our coaches or Beane "drafted him" or "is familiar with him."
Last season Davis had 45 catches, 7 TDs, and 31 1st-Downs. That's nowhere near an even swap. Davis was far more efficient on a per-catch basis.
As to our team generating a lot more passing TDs than average (assuming you mean passing TDs since we're talking WRs here), the Skins had 407 completions, 3,725 passing yards, and 24 passing TDs.
We had 385 completions (22 fewer), 4,154 yards (429 more), and 29 passing TDs. (5 more, marginal) Davis was 25% of those 29 TDs too.
Considering that Kincaid will probably pick up more of the slack, I'm not sure I see Samuel matching Davis' TD numbers when he hasn't put up more than 4 TDs in any of his last four seasons.
We'll see.
-
4 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:
I feel reasonably confident with our chances to win the AFCE, but I don't think we're going to start out the season as a championship team. If we have a chance of making it to the SB, they're going to need to continue building throughout the season, which I believe they will. That's McDermott's "process," and Beane's philosophy. And I feel pretty good about that.
If we can't at least win this miserable Division then it's time for some really major changes.
We own Miami and the Jets and Pats, until further notice, both suck.
-
5 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:
We can revisit it quarterly if you like. I'm not shy about that. And I won't be shy about apologizing if I, and many others, are wrong. Unless he gets hurt, he will regularly outperform Davis. He's just way more versatile and explosive and won't have as many drops.
I don't think that's a ridiculous take. If anything, your take is the outlier. Could you be right? It's possible. But I don't think it's likely.
Samuel's a lot of hype here for a WR that's averaged fewer than 500 yards per season and an average of 3 TDs/season.
He may have a drop or two fewer, but Davis averaged a TD for every 6 receptions. Samuel's averaged a TD for every 15 receptions.
Drops, or lack thereof, don't win games. TDs/points do. That seems to be lost on many.
Perhaps most concerning is that there's yet another Carolina connection. Have any of those worked our for us. This "familiarity" thing ... LOL
-
1
-
-
5 hours ago, FireChans said:
Miami did not get stronger. Wilkins was their best DL player by a mile.
Miami's not a concern. No matter how good they are, we typically go 2-0 against them. The playoff game against Thompson was a little bit of a wake-up call, but otherwise no matter how good Miami is or isn't, we beat them. We're 11-1 after Allen's first start against them and our only loss was that ridiculous heat game a couple of seasons ago where we actually seriously outplayed Miami but lost 21-19 anyway.
5 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:Samuel will be far more consistent as than Davis. Book it.
And the Wings are better in Buffalo than they are in France too.
-
1
-
-
9 hours ago, BarleyNY said:
Milano and Bernard at LB is a bright spot (along with Johnson). Still, I see a defense that is not going to be the reason we win games this season.
Everyone's assuming that Milano will be 100% or close to it. It's concerning that he wasn't able to put any weight on his injured leg for two months. That's a long time for a reportedly simple break of his tibia. That's not normal.
-
I'll feel pretty good when we make the playoffs and beat something better than a wild-card team. Merely winning the division is old hat and a pretty low expectation with Allen at QB and in a relatively weak division at this point. Right now we're on pretty much exactly the same trajectory that the Chargers were on under Norv Turner with Rivers at QB. We have better talent than that.
-
1
-
2
-
Anyone else feeling pretty good with the Bills?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
We'll see what this season brings. Hopefully Samuel will be the 1,000 yard 8 TD WR that people seem to believe he will be.
BTW, I certainly wouldn't have wagered against 15 rushing TDs either. Cook isn't a goal-line RB and doesn't even carry the ball on 3rd-downs.
Great! We can all look forward to Samuel being the difference this season then. Looking forward to it.